John Gasaway at Basketball Propsectus takes a look at the Heels’ first eight games and decides they would be better suited for the NBA.
I know. I hate it when folks say a college team could beat the Grizzilies or something along those lines. I think Gasaway’s ultimate point is UNC is existing on a plane above the rest of the college basketball. Sure plenty can still go wrong but after eight games, UNC has been incredible.
Rather than rake the ashes of this particular blowout, then, I resolved to look ahead and ask a question. One that, as it happens, is put to me on a daily basis: can North Carolina be beaten?
Yes! Assuming my proposal to relocate the Tar Heels into the NBA is the first order of business taken up by our new and laudably sports-conversant president on January 20. Otherwise?
Otherwise, I wish to refocus the question. Believe me, I understand the interest in run-the-table discussions. While running the table was an occasional event back in the ’60s and ’70s, it hasn’t happened now in 33 years. It’s a legitimate object of speculation and I will do my fair share of speculating here this season, promise.
Still, let’s not lose sight of the obvious. North Carolina could get tripped up at Wake Forest (January 11), at Miami (February 11), at Duke (February 15) or, heck, even at home…and they would still be the overwhelming favorite to win the national championship in Detroit in April.
This is what an overwhelming favorite looks like:
North Carolina 2008-2009
Through games of December 7
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession
Opp. PPP: opponent points per possession
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
H: home A: away N: neutralOpp. Opponent Pace PPP PPP EM Penn (H) 74.9 1.15 0.95 +0.20 Kentucky (H) 73.3 1.05 0.79 +0.26 UCSB (A) 75.5 1.11 0.89 +0.22 Chaminade (N) 81.3 1.41 0.86 +0.55 Oregon (N) 84.3 1.16 0.82 +0.34 Notre Dame (N) 74.1 1.38 1.17 +0.21 UNC Asheville (H) 83.0 1.40 0.58 +0.82 Michigan St. (N) 84.4 1.16 0.75 +0.41 Overall 78.8 1.23 0.84 +0.39Nor does this picture change materially if you discard the outliers. Looking at just their wins over major-conference foes (Kentucky, Oregon, Notre Dame, Michigan State), Carolina is still outscoring opponents by more than 0.30 points per trip. The technical term for that level of performance over four games, only one of which was a home game, is “insane.”
Consider:
- There is no scenario involving earthlings and the current laws of gravity where North Carolina does not get a one-seed in the NCAA tournament.
- Since 2005, one-seeds are 32-0 in first-weekend games.
- Since 2006, one-seeds are 44-6 against opponents who aren’t one-seeds.
There is a very well-established path that will almost certainly lead North Carolina back to the Motor City. For this team to be denied the title will likely require an upset on the order of Connecticut defeating Duke in the 1999 national championship game. That kind of upset is not impossible, of course, but it is unlikely–and a UNC loss earlier in the tournament is far more unlikely.
And for everyone who thinks UConn is the chief impediment in the path of the Heels, Gasaway points out the Huskies play fairly crappy defense for the most part. In fact he says eight Big East teams were better on defense than UConn was last season. The point is not to make the same mistake ACC media writers made when they voted Shelden Williams DPOY in the conference two straight season. Just because someone is a big body and capable of blocking shots does not make him or the team he is own necessarily a great defensive unit. Much is made of Hasheem Thabeet’s size and shot blocking ability as though it would neutralize Tyler Hansbrough should these two teams meet. That is a pretty bold assumption since (1) Hansbrough can play anywhere on the court pulling Thabeet away from the basket and (2) UNC has multiple weapons both inside and out UConn’s other players have to deal with. Then again this is a very premature conversation but it is a light week.
Gasaway also brings up the vaunted “how do you beat UNC” mantra we will hear and debunks the classic “half court game hurts UNC” poppycock that descended on us like rain prior to the Sweet Sixteen last March:
One last advisory note as we embark on what is likely to be a season-long discussion of “how to beat North Carolina.” Hoops pundits tend to get needlessly hung up on pace, as in: “To beat North Carolina you need to make them play half-court.” That prescription can have value for some teams but it should never be regarded as an irrevocable ukase for all teams. Pace should never be confused with style.
To beat North Carolina you need to play your style and make your shots. If the way for your team to do that in the most effective and stylistically comfortable manner is to run, great. Do it. If on the other hand you need to wind the shot clock down under ten on every possession, fine. Do that. The essential defensive objective here is something that usually falls under the heading of offense: make your shots. Carolina’s offense is most lethal when they ignite it with a defensive board. The six seconds that follow that rebound quite often result in two or more points for Roy Williams’ men.
Not rocket science. If you hit shots, you can win games. The key for UNC is to play defense well enough to stop that from happening which they seem to be doing. The Pomeroy rankings have UNC 7th in defense which is about 12 spots higher than they were at the end of last season. This is without Marcus Ginyard and I am sure Roy will tell you this team has not quite reached the level of defense he would like to see though I think based on his comments thus far he is pleased with the progress.
In short UNC has it rolling like we all hoped they would. The key is focusing on improvement, especially with a relatively easy schedule until the start of ACC play.
![[Bloglines]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/bloglines.png)
![[del.icio.us]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/delicious.png)
![[Digg]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/digg.png)
![[Facebook]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/facebook.png)
![[MySpace]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/myspace.png)
![[Technorati]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/technorati.png)
![[Windows Live]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/windowslive.png)
![[Yahoo!]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/yahoo.png)
![[Email]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/email.png)
I’m insane too. 5 more days until we play again is hard to cope with.
About this guy’s analysis: I agree this team is on a different level than most of the ranked teams, but there is no way to figure the upset bug. We almost always get somebody’s career game, and we have to remain injury free. Those are out of our control. We need to continue to control the things we can. I think the defense improving every game is key to the season.
I’ve watched UConn 4 times this year and, in short, they are flat out not that good. On top of that, they have 6 guys who average 28 minutes per game, 1 who averages 11, and no one else over 10. Their lack of depth is a big reason why their defense is so suspect. Ty Lawson would put Price and Walker on a string.
Right now, I would say the biggest challenge to UNC would actually be Oklahoma. Blake Griffin is an absolute freak and if he got some help from his brother and Willie Warren, they could give UNC a run. I don’t worry about the “one hot guy” scenario… you won’t see better individual performances than UNC saw from Rice last year, and McAlarney this year, and UNC won both of those games; to beat UNC will take a true team effort, and a bit of a UNC implosion.
As much as I love to envision the Heels running the table, I dare not think about it. Also, there has been many a season where the best team in the country didn’t win the title. I just want to enjoy the stellar play and upcoming butt whippings while I can, and let the undefeated and NCAA title cards fall where they may.
I just wanted to use some space to congratulate the women’s soccer team on another championship. I hadn’t seen any comments of that nature yet and figured they deserved a rather large amount of exaltation for their dominance. 19 titles in 27 years of the tournament is unthinkable but clearly not impossible. Way to go Heels!
Because we have quality depth to the 10th man now (with Ginyard back), it is going to take a deep team that plays its best possible game to beat us in the tourney. Basically, that is what Kansas did last year. This year, I am not sure if there is a team like Kansas with experienced, quality depth, but these teams are developing depth.
Pitt – 11 men
Wake – 10 men
Texas – 9 men
Wake is very young. My guess is we will play Pitt and/or Texas in the Final Four. If one or both of those teams’ benches are playing well, they could give us a game.
You are right in my opinion WB3. I am not sure as well if there is are elite teams out there with the exception of us. Given the fact that Wake is so young can work two ways. First off, being young can prove helpful to them against us. They have no recollection of UNC’s dominance over the past two years. They may not have that fear factor. It could be that they play young, hungry, and confident. Secondly, if inexperience plays a role, we march right through them.
JBowling – As for Wake, they seem to play very sloppy basketball right now, but that could change. They might have the most talent of any team but us. I guess we will find out in Jan. how that will play out.
Ditto to rebel’s post about the women’s soccer team. They are the definition of dynasty. It’s hard to believe that one program can dominate a sport like they have, and that’s even with women’s soccer seeing much more parity over the past 10 years or so. Kudos to them to the max.
In my humble opinion, Gonzaga might match up with us as well as any team, and then the x-factor that comes with playing Duke in Durham puts them next. Duke’s loss to Michigan makes them a better team and even hungrier.
We are insane! Get it in your head! We are good wait no scratch that we are great. Is that suddenly a crime in college basketball? We are not NBA material-yet. These guys are going to be great NBA players in the future but not now. I’ll admit our stats are pretty amazing and teams marvel at us but we are not invincible. These people need to deal. Seriously.
There is a lot to relish in the sagacity of the posters above. Impressive wisdom, built on years of BTDT expectation/reality, I surmise.
Thank you, THF, for what may be the best Heel blog out there.
Gonzaga. Heytvelt is Hansbrough w/o the psycho-drama. Plays like 50′s or 60′s style. Very formidible around the court. Oklahoma, Pitt, I have not seen play. Dook and Wake, well, of course they’ll keep us interested. Louisville/Pitino – don’t count him out. Texas/Rick Barnes? No way, no how. Barnes is fool’s gold. A perfect pretense for all things Texas.
Heels romp!
well for a reminder: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InqJS6ONXPE
not so sure I agree with the subdued part however–seemed pretty taken with himself in that game (as he should be).
what they say about payback?? my money’s on Tyler.
yeah, heyvelt had 19 pts, 8 rebs and 4 blocks to beat us at the madison square garden 2 years ago while holding hansbrough to 9 pts (on 2 of 5 shooting) and 9 rebs. btw, wright had 21 pts and 13 rebs. this year, gonzaga has 6 players averaging over 20 mins and two over 10 minutes. they also play against “lesser” competition in conference so the players might be more fresh at season’s end.
i too would like to see us play against oklahoma but they seem to have barely scraped by decent/good competition. i think we thump them.
speaking of defense… which 5 would be your defensive 5 from our team this season if you needed to make some stops? call me crazy but i like: drew, frasor, ginyard, green and davis out there.
I agree with that lineup, unless UNC was playing a bigger team, then I’d switch Hansbrough and Green.
He is trying to make up for last year’s disrespect of Tyler. For anyone interested in another North Carolina hoops team, I have written an analysis of Davidson’s team so far this year and comments are welcome:
http://quakerfox.blogspot.com/2008/12/stephen-curry-and-davidson.html
william, nice work on Davidson and Curry, I’ll have to bookmark your blog going forward as well. Putting WV at 33% shooting was a nice way to take them out.
When I think about the tar heels on the court this year I want them to win as team, to play great defense and excel as individuals (a natural outcome from great team play). Everybody gets what they want and everybody wins – our freshmen get great experience during the season and in the tournament with real minutes in key situations, our starters get good draft selection in the Association and hopefull we win the tournament. I could a few more items that I would like but I think it’s overkill and too many of them have to do with my needs.
My greatest fear at this point would be injuries and press coverage. We can’t address injuries but I think Roy has a big job ahead keeping everyone focused on improving while the press annoints UNC the champions. That is something that Roy will have to adress more than just about anything. It’s just a calling card for the upset. Of course having that mantra in the air only fires up your opponents and you get a better game from everyone you play all season. Every team plays harder against Carolina.
Go Heels!