Setting aside, for the moment, that Ken Pomeroy’s rankings inexplicably have Georgetown ranked #1 and UNC #2, I thought the prediction for the rest of UNC’s schedule was quite interesting.
Pomeroy predicts a 28-2 overall record with a 14-2 mark in the ACC. This is generally attributed to unknown factors which cannot accounted for with a formula. That being said, notice that UNC’s “worst” chance of winning a game is at Duke where Pomeroy puts the odds at 56% and predicted a two point Tar Heel win. Outside of that he gives UNC a 79% chance of winning at Wake, 77% at Miami and 82% versus Duke at home. The rest of the games are 90% or better with two games(Valpo and Rugers) being called 100%.
The money number is at the bottom. UNC is given a 12% chance at going unbeaten and 13% in the ACC. Given the difficulty of the task, those are actually good odds.
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I’d take 28-2/14-2… based on recent history, you could make the argument that the home game against would be the most likely loss (3-0 at Cameron; 1-2 at DES); however, if you believe in the idea of things evening out over time, then a home and home split is probably the safer bet. I still have a hard time seeing Duke beating UNC this year. UNC’s losses, if any, will likely come against lesser opponents. Plus, Duke is 0-3 against UNC when Lawson is in the lineup…
That’s right. So far, they haven’t been able to press him. I doubt they ever will.
I’d love to see the Dookies try to press Lawson. They don’t want to go there. However, teams have tried to press some with Drew in the game. To his credit, it hasn’t worked. Hopefully by the time we play Dook he’ll be confident enough that they won’t press him either.