Good points all around and not much from me other than to say that I think the defensive issues are more than just an effort problem. Maybe I am looking at it the wrong way but at times it seems like the Heels just don’t get how to play defense. Other than that, Giglio makes the point that there is still plenty of time left in this season and UNC can make a run, the question is whether they know that or will get it together. Full post from ACC Now after the jump.
UNC’s winless in the ACC after two games and the Earth is still on its axis. Promise. Look at the sky, it’s still Carolina blue.
It might seem like the end of the world, Tar Heel fans, but it’s not. Yes, 0-2 is not good, but it’s Jan. 13. There’s a lot of hockey left.
Five reasons not to burn those plane tickets to Detroit:
1) You can’t play much worse
Take a look at boxscore from the 92-89 loss to Wake: UNC shot 35 percent (26-74) from the floor, 26 percent (6-23) from 3 and Wake’s Jeff Teague scored 34 points.So, Carolina couldn’t hit water from a boat, a player on the other team had a career-game and the Heels still only lost by three.
Yes, there are larger questions about Teague’s ability to get said 34 points, with the benefit of only three 3-pointers, but in general, UNC stunk and still almost won on the road against a top-5 team. That’s a good sign.
2) Tyler Hansbrough
When Ty Lawson was injured last season, I wrote UNC was better with Quentin Thomas at point guard. I had statistical data to support my argument.It’s not anything against Lawson, it’s that Thomas is/was a true pass-first point guard. With Thomas, the hierarchy of UNC’s offense was clear: Psycho T first and everyone else second.
Bottom line for UNC and its Final Four chances — the offense has to run through Hansbrough. While not an adept passer, his presence opens up the outside for everyone else. He attracts the defense, which allows Wayne Ellington and Danny Green (note I omitted Lawson he should generate his points on the dribble-drive and in transition, not on 3s) to shoot and Deon Thompson to clean up the garbage.
Hansbrough can consistently score better than anyone who has every played in the ACC. Give him the ball and go from there.
You cannot ignore him for a half, which UNC did for the better part of the final 20 minutes on Sunday, and he cannot allow his teammates to get into a 3-point shooting contest. UNC shouldn’t be taking 23 3s in a game, at least not in a game it expects to win.
Hansbrough is not innocent in this 0-2 start. He took some bad shots against Wake — the second-half 3 pointer for one — and for just once in his college career, he needs to affect a game with his defense.
Still, if you follow the formula from the second-half of last season — Hansbrough first, everyone else second — the Final Four is there for the taking.
3) Defense is correctable
Defense is a function of hustle and desire. It’s not a gift, it’s about effort.The bad news in losses to Wake and Boston College is neither team shot particularly well or beat UNC by trading 3s for 2s. Both Wake and BC simply out-played UNC.
That’s both bad news and good news. The bad news is, the Heels aren’t as good as you, me, Dick Vitale, Roy Williams or anyone else thought they were. Talented and experienced, yes, but they are flawed.
The good news is they just have to try harder, particularly on the defensive end of the floor, and they have the talent to overcome their flaws.
Help defense is about communication and teamwork. Duke put on a clinic against Davidson in help defense. (Maybe Duke will send them the tape?)
Especially with the ole perimeter defense by Lawson and Ellington, UNC needs Thompson, Green or Ed Davis to cut off dribble penetration. It’s called “help” defense for a reason.
4) Wayne Ellington
There’s no sense in sugar-coating this, Wayne Ellington has not been good. On defense he’s a liability and on offense he’s not making enough jump shots to offset the points he’s allowing.
But 16 games does not a season make. Run the offense through Hansbrough (see Point 2) and Ellington will have more clean looks at the basket and not just be jacking 3s for the sake of jacking 3s.
Defensively, he was so bad against Wake, Williams had to go to a zone in the second half because he had no other options at shooting guard.
This is where Marcus Ginyard will help. Note, I don’t think Ginyard’s Lazarus (or even Jackie Manuel) but his minutes can only help Ellington.
Again, the good news is Ellington has a talent (shooting) you can’t teach and with the right effort can at least be serviceable on defense.
5) Reduced expectations
Williams loves to say he loves high expectations because that means he has a good team. The truth is all coaches hate high expectations because it’s an element they can’t control and coaches by nature hate anything they can’t control.
Just before he left for China this summer, Mike Krzyzewski held a press conference and he was asked about UNC and all the players that had decided to return for this season.
He kinda smirked and responded: “I like my team.”
See, K was in this boat with J.J. Redick in 2006. Duke went off as the No. 1 team in the country and spent the better part of the season there but got knocked out in the Sweet 16 because among other reasons, the team wasn’t as good as everyone told them they were.
UNC wasn’t just No. 1 but a unanimous No. 1 and started the season by not just beating some good/brand-name teams — Notre Dame, Michigan State and Kentucky — but annihilating them.
With losses to BC and Wake, the Heels can taste their own mortality. They’re not perfect but that doesn’t mean the season is over.
UNC can still find its way. The question is where will they go from here?
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I agree with a lot of what Giglio is saying.
About the zone: I don’t think Roy went to a zone because of the poor play by Ellington. I think he went to the zone because TH had 3 fouls and TH promptly picked up his 4th. The last time I really remember the Heels playing a zone was the 2005 Championship game when Felton got his 4th foul.
From that game I do remember the final 2 minutes. On the floor were Manuel, Noel, and Felton, all lock down defenders.
Until Marcus is 100%, I hope we do see some 1-3-1 with Ed Davis running the baseline.
Our shooting can’t get a whole lot worse. The %’s were only inflated by the shots that went in during desperation time against Wake.
Thanks for sharing that THF
I really hate to say this, but I do not believe Ginyard is going to be much help this year. The guy essentially hasn’t played basketball since August (he was out with a high ankle sprain from August to October). Even if his foot magically heals, it is going to be very difficult for him to get back into shape and to guard the best perimeter college basketball players in the nation, which is what he can do when healthy.
People talk about defense, and they think they know what it means, but ultimately, the discussion has to be about overall defensive efficiency because there are simply too many variables to deem any one “defense.” Thus, rebounding and steals can make up for poor field goal percentage defense.
But just because I sort of think I know what people mean when they say this current group doesn’t play defense, and that they don’t move their feet–heck–I’ve probably said it myself, I thought I would look at the 1982 and 1993 teams in some of their key games.
Now those teams really played defense, right?
Well, not always.
UVa shot 66% against Carolina in the 1982 ACC Finals but UNC won because it took 8 more shots and made more free throws.
How about the Georgetown game? That was a defensive struggle, right? Georgetown shot 53% from the floor against the Heels.
Just one game, right? James Madison was 21-37 from the floor against Carolina; Alabama was 29-53 from the floor against Carolina and Villanova was 27-55 from the floor against Carolina. Only Houston was held below 49% in the NCAA’s and because they took 20 more shots than Carolina, it was just as close as most of the other games in the tournament that year for us.
The 1993 team is often touted for great defense, but Michigan shot 60 for 122 against the Heels, or over 49% in the two games we faced them, 30-60 in one and 30-62 in the other. In the Semi’s against Kansas, the Heels did a little better overall, holding Kansas to 44% from the floor, but the Jawhawks hit 11-20 from three point range. Why didn’t Carolina get out there and defend the three?
Just one game you say? Against Arkansas in the Sweet 16, the Heels held Arkansas to 44% shooting overall, but the Razorbacks nailed 11 three pointers out of 24. Don’t you have to defend the three to win a national title?
The current Heels are ranked 16th overall in defense. That is hardly worth crying about and nothing like the 2005 Deacons who were second overall in offense and 72nd overall in defense in Pomeroy’s efficiencies (and still 7th overall that year). I asked him how such a poor defensive team like Wake could be ranked 7th overall that year and he said that good offense beats good defense.
Good stuff.
“Thus, rebounding and steals can make up for poor field goal percentage defense.”
The problem is in the two losses at least one of those areas have been an issue.
-Against BC the 13 offensive rebounds the Eagles had in the first half negated the fact they shot 39%. BC also did not turn the ball over.
-Against Wake the turnovers were not there and despite the fact UNC controlled the boards better than they did versus BC, Wake was able to make plays at certain points to control the game.
The Wake games bothers me less about the defense than it did against BC. The fact UNC could not make shots did them in and instead of putting pressure on Wake by taking a 2-3 possessions lead or making Wake answer basket for basket the Heels never could consistently make shots.
My point is that if you look at the Kansas(throwing out the free throw-increased margin at the end) and Georgetown games and the BC game and Wake game, UNC wins all those games if they play their normal offensive game of say 44% shooting from the field.
Strangely enough, Carolina defended great against both Arizona in 1997 and Utah in 1998. The Heels lost both games because we shot horribly in both.
What may be at play is that Carolina’s style of play is less forgiving of abnormally poor shooting occasions than some other teams’ styles of play. Thus, when Carolina is off from the floor, it affects us much more on both sides of the court than other teams where offense and defense are more separate and discrete.
I would say that is magnified in Roy Williams’ system since the pace of the offense and the ability to score quickly or in bunches puts pressure on the other team. If they get worn out on defense it will affect their ability to shoot on offense. When the Heels can uncork a 10-0 run in a matter of 90 seconds it is a huge blow psychologically that UNC can take advantage of. The question then becomes how does UNC step up and win games like the one versus BC where the Eagles did not feel intimidated or against Wake who also likes to run.
I think Carolina is going to have problems with teams that have good guard play due to perhaps our guards not playing as good defense as some other guards and also due to Lawson’s size, which was a point the announcers made the other night.
Lawson reminds me a lot of Muggsy Bogues which some people seem to think is an insult, but Wake people might actually find the comparison presumptuous since Bogues played 13 years in the NBA and averaged 15 points, 10 assists and 4!rebounds per game his senior season. Bogues was great on offense but had real problems creating his own shot. He had an excellent NBA career but was only a fringe starter because he had trouble defending bigger guys.
You can’t control your size. You just have to work with it and there aren’t many guards out there shorter than Lawson.
Both Georgetown and Kansas had excellent guards. USC had pretty good guards back in 1997 and gave us trouble. VPI had excellent guard play in 1997. So has Clemson. It seems to be a combination of good guard play with a front court as big or bigger than ours: Wake, Kansas, Georgetown, Clemson, VPI and BC all seem to fit that mold. Carolina should probably be alert to this.
Poor video quality, but it backs up william’s comparison:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXuoGRRaFvw
That could very easily be Ty Lawson…
To be fair though, Ty has a legit 7 inches on Mugsy:
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/measurements.php?year=2008&sort2=ASC&draft=0&pos=&sort=2
His bench wasn’t bad, and his vertical was excellent, so the skills are there, he just needs to be more consistent. I think he allows himself to get taken out of the flow too easily, much like a shooter who needs to hit his first shot or two to be effective.
In respect to those numbers he rated better than DJ Augustin. Lawson’s problem is somewhat in his head. He does allow himself to be taken out of a game when it does not come easily. He made it personal between him and Teague, he did the same between him and Rice. Lawson needs to fill his role which is manage the game, distribute the basketball and score when the opportunity presents itself.
I think it is closer to six inches in difference. Lawson does jump well and can dunk but so could Spud Webb at 5′ 7″. I can’t remember how well Bogues jumped.
But I think, basically, if you are under say a legitimate stocking-feet 5′ 11″, it may not matter all that much if you are the size of Muggsy, or Monte Towe, who was about 5′ 6″ or Lawson at 5′ 10″(some say that is being generous) because the bigger guys at 6′ 2″ and above are all going to shoot over you about the same no matter what.
To be fair, I think Felton used to take things personally about the same against Jack and Paul and they probably usually outdid him in the stats department. By the Illinois and Villanova games his junior year, though, he faced excellent guards and seemed to be unperturbed by his own match-up and focused on the team.
THF: I would analyze Lawson’s game just a little differently. I (and he) would agree that his defensive problems are because of a lack of concentration/motivation. Felton had a tough time keeping folks from driving the ball until that final year. Lawson is is quick enough to get the job done, and just needs to do it.
On the offensive side of the ball, I am afraid his skill level is lacking in the half court. When the other team does a good job of getting back in transition, he does not seem to be the same player. The way I see it, he can either shoot a set shot 3-pointer (easy to block) or he can drive it all the way to the basket (easy to block if the other team has big guys). If he had a mid-range game or tear-drop (see Tony Parker), he would be very effective in the half court because of his quickness. Unfortunately, his skills in this area are not there yet.
There is one aspect of Lawson’s game that seems to be missing since the end of his freshmen year. During his freshman year, he would drive to the basket and hit floaters, and would even get into the painted area and cross-up bigger defenders. I see none of that now, and I thought it was real effective when he did it. Speaking of Jeff Teague, the way he did his crossovers and floaters in the lane is what Lawson was doing during year 1. I know he got called for palming the ball a few times, but I would just deal with it and continue on, especially in a game where your opposition (Teague) seems to be doing it all the time with no calls on it. I still wonder if that is what is discouraging him from doing so.
If Lawson measured at just under 5’11 at the pre-draft camp, I’m not sure how anyone can say 5’10 is generous. The NBA measurements are performed without bias and are about as legit as you will ever get.
I don’t know honestly. It looks like they are using 1/4 inch marks so he could be 5′ 10 1/2″ because they obviously do round up.
I have seen things on the web that claim that Michael Jordan was only 6′ 4″ 1/2. Patrick Ewing revealed after his career ended that he was actually under 6′ 10″ and closer to 6′ 9 after being listed as 7 feet since his days at Georgetown
Do they measure the same way that boxing promoters measure? Cause I am telling you that Mike Tyson is not close to 5′ 11″ 1/2.
Well there is the with shoes measurement and the one they do barefoot.
Looking at a few guys on the list from last year, it looks like shoes give you about 1 to 1.5 inches. In the case of MJ, he may have only been 6-4 1/2 without the shoes but with the shoes he was 6-6. I have no idea about Ewing. Three inches seems like a big gap.
“Cause I am telling you that Mike Tyson is not close to 5? 11? 1/2.”
Grew up in the same town as Iron Mike… agreed!
As for the NBA measurements, I would say I doubt they are similar to boxing promoters. It would cost the NBA a lot more to list a player as taller than he is. I think the Jordan and Ewing examples are prime examples of why the NBA, like the NFL, started doing the measurements themselves, rather than trust the schools. The first real example of this was Shawn Respert, who was listed at 6’6 while at MSU, but was measured by the NBA as 6’1…
I don’t know when they started doing that formally. When I was a kid, Wilt refused to be measured and nobody could agree how tall he was. I think now people agree he was about as tall, at 7′ 1″ as you can be without having bone difficulties, which may be why he was the greatest center of all time.
For a long time, Carolina would never list anyone at 7 feet. They were always 6′ 11 1/2 or whatever, although we haven’t had that many really big centers.
I would say that Lawson and Ellington should check with Danny about what shoes to wear since Danny’s add an extra 1/2 that Ty might use profitably. If they round up to the next 1/4 inch presumably now 1.75 inches is about the most you can add over your stocking feet, if you were just barely over a mark.
The thing about it is, if someone is as tall as 6-5 they look huge to most of us because you don’t see folks that tall except on the basketball court.
Who cares if Lawson is 5-10 or 5-11. He’s a bit short, especially when matched up against guys like Rice and Teague.
I think what some of us here (myself included) and the media is losing sight of is how Carolina is built, or its recipe for success. I work at a Division 3 school in the Midwest, and our hoops team is pretty solid. We don’t get the greatest athletes compared to other schools in our conference, so we don’t typically dominate on the glass or force a bunch of turnovers. What our team does really well is take care of the ball, be efficient on offense and don’t foul (we’ve led all of college basketball in least amount of fouls per game the last two seasons). Sure, we want to make sure we take care of the boards and be opportunistic on defense, but we don’t have the athletes to get out and pressure the ball or rely on outrebounding teams by 10-15 boards per game. Usually, if we shoot around 45-50%, stay even on the glass and have fewer turnovers than the opponents, we win.
Carolina’s “recipe” is get up more (and better) shots because of its pace, dominate on the glass, and use its defense to generate turnovers that lead to easy baskets and speed the other team up. We’re not a team that’s built to hold teams to under 40 percent shooting–it’s just not our strength. I think Giglio’s point about running the HC offense through Tyler (and I would add Deon and Ed–frankly Deon is the reason we annihilated teams early in the season) and basically work inside-out. Right now, I feel like Wayne and Ty are trying to prove to NBA scouts they can ‘get their own.’ I don’t think it’s for selfish reasons, but rather they’ve put in a tremendous amount of time on improving that part of their game, but it’s just not quite there yet. Ty needs to find the mid-range game again, but he also needs to drive to set up opportunities for teammates, but he’s getting too deep (under/close to hoop) to find passing lanes. He could really help Wayne get going in this area, IMO.
The last thing I’ll say is that the defensive thing I worry about, outside of effort (aka BC game) is that Wayne and Tyler are so slow laterally it just kills us. It’s not lack of effort or knowledge or execution—it’s flat out ability. If we have bad match ups, we struggle. I think, because of this, we could see more zone in the future, but that is counter to our ‘recipe’ to speed up the game and generate TOs into easy baskets on the other end.
You are right about the UNC listings under 7 feet. I don’t know, but maybe Dean liked to have a little “ace” to use, and decoying 7 footers as 6’11″ would give him a little edge. I don’t know the reason why we did that, other than that speculation. I do not think we do that now, as Zeller still doesn’t stand out to me as a 7 footer, but nevertheless, he is.
Maybe Zwikker was the first to be listed as a 7 footer?
JBowling:
I understand that Lawson does not take it to the basket in the half court anymore because the coaches told him not to. Deon and Tyler are not going to leave their blocks, so it gets too crowded inside. We are an inside-out team, not a dribble and kick team. That is just how we do things.
“Look at the sky, it’s still Carolina blue.” Actually it’s grey in Raleigh. But yes the Earth is still spinning and State is still losing. I guess its ok. We just need to get back in our game.
George Foreman was one who went the opposite way and was always listed at 6’3″, the same as Ali and Ken Norton but Foreman was clearly taller than either of them and was almost certainly over 6’4″.
This is why Iron Mike didn’t want to fight Foreman because he had seen what Foreman did to Joe Frazier from above so Tyson decided to fight Buster Douglas instead, who was even taller than Foreman but seemed like less of a puncher. That didn’t turn out so well for Iron Mike, who probably suffered the worst knock-out by a heavyweight champ in history.
TarHeelInMinny — I think you’re a shrewd observer of the game and I agree with your analysis in toto.
The overall reason I’m pessimistic at this point is that the team is regressing. Deon is way off of what he was when he started the season; it may be that Hansbrough’s return and need to share space with him has thrown him off. Lawson’s play, and not just his shooting, has been off since the Michigan State game. Indeed, the greatest single difference between what we see now and what we saw then is that our team is not taking good care of the ball — primarily Lawson’s responsibility. Ed Davis is also slightly off from the promise he initailly showed.
The only one who has improved is Green. And thank goodness, or we would be in more trouble than we are for the moment.
I agree with wb3 that it would be imprudent to count on Ginyard to bail us out. First, he also is regressing: After a couple of games of undistinguished play, he was back in street clothes at the Wake game. Regressing physically is of course not his fault; injuries do not respond well to a mere desire that they get better. But there it is, one way or the other. Second, Ginyard was in my opinion overrated to begin with as a defensive “stopper.” He’s a good defensive player, the best we have when healthy, but the actual instances in which he has “stopped” another team’s best player are infrequent.