From ACC Now:
After the Clemson game, I praised Roy Williams’ end-game management. Leonard Hamilton provided a prime example of what not to do on Wednesday.
On FSU’s final offensive sequence, Toney Douglas, a point guard, was being guarded by Hansbrough, a power forward. Kudos to Hansbrough for staying in front of Douglas but how about a pick for the guy? Or at the very least, a clear out. Hamilton instructed neither.
After a fortuitous offensive rebound, FSU had a second chance to win the game. Hamilton called timeout. Douglas got the ball again and this time got a high screen but forced a shot, looking for a foul on a helping Hansbrough. Correctly he didn’t get the call.
With 3.6 seconds left, again Williams displayed the command of his team. Under the Dean Smith Manual of Coaching, you always get the ball past halfcourt and then call timeout.
Usually, Williams would have done that but with FSU’s players sloughing off Lawson and parting the Garnet Sea, Williams let Lawson go. The rest is history.
I know what you’re thinking, “How is letting your point guard dribble the length of the floor and hit a lucky buzzer-beater great coaching?”
Because Williams prepared his team to do so. Flash back to the N.C. State-Florida game on Jan. 3. Florida hits a basket with 11.3 seconds left and Sidney Lowe immediately, without regard to Florida’s intentions, called a timeout.
Williams gauged the defense and trusted his players to make plays. That’s good coaching.
And as a postscript to Lowe’s end-game management, at the end of overtime on Tuesday against Miami, Lowe had Julius Mays cross halfcourt and then called timeout. At least he’s learning from his mistakes. Williams must have lent him a copy of Dean’s book.
When it comes down to a handful of seconds and one play to get a shot, Roy does a pretty good job drawing up a game winner or having his players prepared to execute. We see this sort of thing at the end of the first half on occasion and against Clemson last season in Littlejohn. Even the missed shot at the end of the infamous Georgetown game was not a bad call, the shot simply did not fall. Last night, Ty Lawson executed and was able to do so because at some point Roy prepared his team properly.
Leonard Hamilton wishes he could say the same thing right now.
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What would all the pundits be saying about Roy right now if UNC had lost?
That’s why they go over late game situations in practice, so that you don’t necessarily need to call a timeout. Your team already knows what to do. It is often that a defense will be in disarray during a situation like that, and the smart thing is to take advantage.
I do have to think that if this had been, say a Sweet 16 game, that we would have seen some different substitution patterns. Right now, Williams is confronted with maybe the shortest bench he has had since being back at Carolina (relatively speaking, of course, in terms of drop-off from starters to sub’s).
Drew and Graves looked so much better in November and December, and the inconsisent play by pretty much everybody except for Danny Green is puzzling, to say the least. In November, this looked to be one of the deepest teams in UNC history and now, I am wondering if maybe Roy needs to look to the 1982, 1993 and 1998 teams where Carolina substituted much less.
Lawson better get into the shape of his life the way things are looking right now, because the offensive drop off when he comes out is simply staggering.
They would be saying he should have called a TO, and they would be wrong, IMO. Coaching is incredibly easy when you have the benefit of hindsight. FTR, I think the last minute was equal parts great execution/coaching from UNC and abysmal execution/coaching from FSU.
“Lawson better get into the shape of his life..”
Agreed, but don’t forget that TV TO’s are 3 minutes in the tourney, which helps a ton. Look how many minutes Felton played in 2005.
” In November, this looked to be one of the deepest teams in UNC history”
Yep, all the preseason hype was based on the premise that coming OFF the bench would be Green, Zeller, Davis, Graves, Frasor and Drew.
The lack of production by Graves (based on his December play) and Frasor (past history) is very frustrating.
The interesting part of Giglio’s comments are that Roy is usually bashed for everything BUT his recruiting.
As I say that and actually check, I see that Lawson played 37 minutes. I guess those 3 minutes when Ty was out just seemed so much longer.
Actually, only six guys for us played over ten minutes, so I am not sure if the critique holds water, but it just seemed as though we had sub’s on the floor at some crucial junctures. Carolina got 79 points from six players.
FSU had 7 guys play over ten minutes and two other guys play 9 minutes each, so for once, UNC was facing superior depth, which is kind of disappointing. Just compare yesterday’s box score to the one against Kentucky, who is probably at least as good as FSU and you see that Carolina got far more balanced minutes and production, even without Hansbrough and Ginyard. I am not sure what has happened since then.
The way I see it, there are two keys for our hopes of winning the national championship.
First, Thompson must return to his early season form. It’s clear by now that Hansbrough cannot alone carry the burden against tall athletic teams. We need a big, strong guy to go with him. Thompson has to be that person. This is not a knock on Ed Davis, not at all. We just need more from that position, and Thompson is the only guy who can give it to us.
Second, Frasor must learn to shoot so that he’s not the offensive liability he is now. He is the one guard on the bench who knows enough about what he is doing, and tries hard enough, to be useful. He lacks quickness, but partly makes up for it by anticipation. And he gives everything.
Drew is just not ready yet. The guy has potential, but you can’t use him in the sort of games we are likely to be facing in late March and (hopefully) April.
I’ve given up on Graves for this season. I do this reluctantly, because physically he has the tools, and there have been rare flashes of excellence. Unfortunately they have been surrounded by dreadful play — turnovers, not knowing where he is on the floor, not knowing where his teammates are, etc.
With Thompson playing as we know he can, and with Ed Davis and an improved Frasor coming off the bench, we are still very much in the title chase. Without it, we are long shots at best.
This really is a strange team, and I am a growing skeptic in our chances of winning a title. With that being said, we have only lost 2 games, and have won 18.
The law of averages states that Deon Thompson has just about spent all of his bad games. In order for the Law of Averages to be a Law, this must mean that Thompson is due some good games ahead of him. I expect Graves will do the same. I am just worried about what happens when Lawson leaves the game. I can handle a Graves, drew, or frasor coming in as long as Lawson is still running the point, although I can’t imagine Drew being the 2 guard. He is a good 3 ball shooter however.
It will be an amazing feat for us to go into a final four without Ginyard. I know that sounds crazy for everyone that has expected us to bully ourselves into the NCAA title, but we need his top-of-the-key defense, offensive rebounding, and crash-the-glass offense. Ellington, in spite of how slow he may be at times, needs to continue to drive in and create some plays-or score. I hate seeing defenses against us be successful at just being stagnant and waiting around. When Lawson and Ellington drive the ball, it causes a lot more motion in opposing defenses which allow more exhaustion on their team.
I don’t know, I am just searching for something here. Things ain’t right, but I don’t know what needs to be “righted”. This team has still played great enough at times to be in a final game. We have just played not good enough at times to be in the tournament. Thompson can eliminate a lot of skepticism on our team right now. If Drew, Graves, and Frasor can be productive off the bench, then we will be where everyone thougth we’d be in November. That shouldn’t be asking for much, should it?
JBowling — I’m with you in spirit. Unfortunately, the law of averages can’t be counted on to bail us, or Deon, out.
If the law of averages dictated how guys would play, Tyler Hansbrough would be Miles Plumlee by now.
What dictates how guys play is ability, intelligence and determination.
If Deon and Frasor can step it up, we are still very much in this thing. If not, Wake is the class of the league, with Dook and us fighting it out for second place.
I thought the end game was well played by the Carolina staff and horrible by the FSU staff.
Roy and the assistants probably had a time in mind that had Ty not reached HC by then, they’d scream for a TO. Once he got so far so quickly and it was pretty apparent he was going to get a good shot, they let it play. All you want in that situation is a good look, and they got it. It was lucky it went in, but fairly good coaching to make the good look happen.
On the FSU side, unforgivable. They should have taken the defender guarding the inbounder and put him in “centerfield” position behind Lawson and then denied Ty the ball. Heck, I would have made anyone else BUT him take the shot. If the defense wasn’t set in the FSU coaches’ minds, they should have taken a timeout. The problem with their final possessions were that’s all they’d been doing all game was high screens for Douglas, and we defended them well.
As for where this team is now, again I’m not putting too much stock in this game. Tough conference roadie after a long layoff. I know folks are worried about our bench production, so I wondered what other top ACC schools are getting.
UNC
Ed Davis-51.0FG%-7.7rpg-1.9bpg-7.0ppg
Will Graves-43.7%FG-2.6 rpg-4.0ppg
Bobby Frasor-30.6%FG-1.4 apg-2.6 ppg
Larry Drew II-40.5%FG-2.5apg-2.1 ppg
Dook
Brian Zoubek-57.5%FG-4.8rpg-6.1ppg
Lance Thomas-62.1%FG- 3.2 rpg-5.6 ppg
Greg Paulus-37.5%FG -5.5 ppg
Wake
Harvey Hale-37.5%FG-5.6ppg
Ishmael Smith-33.3%FG- 3.5apg-3.5ppg
Tony Woods-58.1-2.5 rpg-3.4ppg
NC State’s Tracy Smith is the top reserve in terms of scoring average at 8.8 ppg in the ACC.
So we’re getting roughly the same point production as other ACC teams. Of course, the disappointing thing is we felt this would be a major advantage for us this year. It’s not without Zeller and Ginyard and Bobby’s struggles. With all that said, our top five should be as good or better than anyone else’s. Heck, Dook is basically a two-person offensive team with Singler and Henderson (scheyer is really struggling right now).
It is not just the point production. Frasor and Graves are both way down from last year in offensive efficiency and Drew is lower than Q. Thomas was.
FSU was out of timeouts.
minny,
thanks for the sub stats. the only thing i would say is that our team is designed to beat teams by running them out of the gym. and that style of play basically requires a depth advantage. and now that we only have a marginal bench advantage to most teams, it is more difficult to show dominance over an upper tier team.
More downer material…wow. Wake are NOT the class of the league and this IS collegiate athletics. UNC have the best team and are still the favorites to win it all. It seems as though several of you have succumbed to some unfortunate depression, spawning from a couple of losses and a team that simply has not met the expectations of absolutely crushing every single opponent. Again, do you want to be UNLV ’91 or UNC ’93?
DF,
Amen, my friend, amen.
I’ve actually enjoyed watching this team more after their first two losses. And let’s be honest, nothing has changed from the team we saw in November (personnel, wise). All UNC has to do is harness that again come March and a few losses in ACC play will be eradicated from our memory.
Great points by all. Heeledsoul I agree, without the reliable bench it is harder for this team to run. And that is one of our biggest advantages. The coaches may have to focus on more of a half court offense especially when Lawson is out. Maybe Fraisor at point.
Good point about Lawson and Ellington with controlled dribble penetration.
I agree with William that the two losses was just a kink in our golf swing but now it looks deeper. I am really counting on the Heels to have a no 1 seed in Greensboro since I have tickets. The games have been more enjoyable since ACC started but I would be more comfortable if Duke and Wake lost a few more games.
I can’t tell you how difficult I think getting a number one seed is going to be. First, Wake & Duke can probably only be beaten by us. Wake has had their game with Clemson/Duke/NC. They won 2 out of 3. Duke is the only game left in which they have to worry about, leaving them at 2 conference game losses-if they lose to Duke. Duke on the other hand, has to play us twice. If they do nothing more than just split, it leaves them a game ahead of us in the ACC. So, for us to get a number one seed, it means that Duke and Wake will have to get theirs ahead of us. What is the likelyhood that 3 ACC teams will get a number one seed? Not likely!
But the ACC Tournament can change all of that, if say, Duke/Wake lose their games and UNC win the tournament. Then all of a sudden our 3 losses BC/Wake/Duke seem nullified, and we will have reign over ACC with that tournament win. Again, what is the likelyhood we win the ACC tournament? I think it is better than relying on Duke or Wake to lose a few more ACC games in the regular season, while UNC has to win out the side.
We have to take care of business and hope that Duke/Wake take some unexpected hits. Otherwise, as I’ve said before,
the BC loss haunts us like the VT loss in football.
Who knows? Nobody thought that Carolina had a chance to win the regular season title the last two years and they ended up with the number one seed both years.
There are ten or so conference games left to go and if Wake can lose at home to a mediocre VPI team, then they can lose to just about anybody on a given day.
There really is no point in obsessing over an ACC tournament seed anyway, apart from any effect this might have on UNC getting a number one seed in the NCAA tournament.
I would be shocked if a 12-4 conference mark by the Tar Heels and a win in the ACC tourney resulted in less than a number one seed, especially since UNC’s schedule strength at the end of the year will probably be among the toughest in the country. 13-3 and a win in the tourney should be a certain number one seed.
In 2005, in a year of similar top heavy strength in the ACC, 14-2 in the conference and a loss in the second round was good enough to get the top seed, with Duke getting the second number one seed by winning the ACC tourney.
2005 is a good benchmark. You also have to take into consideration the fact that the Big East is going to cannibalize itself.
Really, let’s hope they do. They have been so touted up to this point that even a team with 5-6 losses will be media hyped into a great team that just had to play in a tough conference. I expect the ACC will be disrespected just like in years past. I hope we can get 2 number one seeds out of this conference, of course Wake & UNC being those. Just seems unlikely to me, unless just one superior team comes out of the Big East. Believe me, the bracketologists is going to have a love fest if two teams come out of there alive with just a few losses.
DeanForever — I don’t wish to be a “downer,” and I don’t think it’s being one to say that Wake is the class of the league. They beat us and Dook (and for most of each game, clearly outplayed us and Dook). Yes, the wins were in Winston-Salem, but a win is a win.
Having defeated what are plainly the other two top-tier schools — both national powers — I don’t know how, at this stage, we can deny Wake the “class of the league” label.
I also do not agree that we are the “favorite to win it all.” I haven’t looked at any Las Vegas betting boards, but I have to think that the favorites right now are Wake and UConn. And we are not getting a single first place vote in either the coaches’ or writers’ poll.
Don’t get me wrong. I love this team. I love Hansbrough and everything he represents. I love how Danny Green has blossomed as a player and leader. I love Lawson’s amazing speed and talent. I love it that Ellington has the sweetest shot in college basketball.
But the competition is stiff, and we have some serious vulnerabilities, most prominent among them our penchant to make the other team’s best guard look like Jerry West. To recognize these things is not, and is not intended to be, disrespect for our team. It is intended, among other things, to show that, if we do wind up winning it all, we will have done so by recognizing and overcoming our problems. That is a more praiseworthy path than simply out-talenting everyone, and will be recognized as such.
I don’t buy the argument that just because Wake beat UNC and Duke, that they are necessarily ahead of them, or the “class” of the league, and it is an argument, we hear a lot. How does VPI fit into this analysis? Duke annihilated VPI.
Here are some more examples why that type of argument doesn’t always work:
The Redskins beat Dallas twice in 1995, but Dallas went on to win the Super Bowl and the Redskins didn’t even make the play-offs.
Carolina beat Duke both times they met in 1990, and Carolina also beat number one ranked Oklahoma that year, but Duke finished ahead of us in the ACC standings and went to the Final Four.
UVa finished second to last and then last in the ACC regular season in 1976 and 1977 but made it to the ACC Finals both years, winning it in 1976, after beating NC State, Maryland and UNC. They promptly went out in the first round in the NCAA tournament against a mediocre opponent. They came ever so close to doing it again against UNC in 1977 and UNC basically had to pull the game out of the hat to win.
One can go on and on with examples like this from all different kinds of sports. Teams match up differently, just like boxers do and this is a big difference in basketball so that you cannot merely compare results from like games and determine who is necessarily better.
Furthermore, there is a huge random element involved, particularly in close games. If Wake hadn’t gotten a lucky travel call with three seconds left, would they still be the “class” of the ACC? If Ellington doesn’t fall down against FSU with 7 minutes to play, does Carolina even need to resort to heroics to win that game?
Carolina has been to the Final 8 and the Final Four the last two years. Duke has been to the tournament twice. Wake finished last one of those years and didn’t even make the NIT last year. If Wake finishes first in the regular season and then wins the ACC tournament, then they can claim they are the “class” of the ACC. Until then, sorry.
I’m not sure I’d call Wake the class of the league, but it’s hard to refute the evidence that they are in the driver’s seat when it comes to the league title. And saying that “one team beat another team that beat another team” has always been a shaky argument. The sad fact is, Wake beat the other three “top tier” teams. AT THIS POINT, not counting future possibilities which are unknown, Wake has a legitimate right to say they are #1 in the ACC. I don’t like it and hopefully it will change, but that doesn’t make it any less true.
William — It is true that luck plays a big role. But the thing about luck is that it evens out over time.
It’s not just that Wake beat us. They outplayed us. They also outplayed Dook.
I don’t know who will wind up being the class of the league when it’s all said and done. But for now, if Wake doesn’t deserve that label, who has a better case?
The way I see it, Wake has a legitimate right to say that they have a record of 5-1 and an overall record of 17-1. UNC has a legitimate right to say that they are 4-2 and 18-2. Each is higher ranked in the two main voting polls. UNC tends to be ranked higher in rankings based upon statistical analysis.
Beyond that, anything would seem to me to be conjecture given that the season is essentially at the mid-point.(20 games for UNC with a potential for 39 games at the most).
By way of comparison, on Sunday, February 17, 2008, Duke had a record of 22-1 and 10-0 in the ACC and had beaten UNC in the Smith Center. They had a legitimate right to say that they were in first place in the ACC on that date. Little did it mean in terms of who was “number one” or the “class” of the ACC. Duke would go 6-5 the rest of the way and almost lose to Belmont in the first round of the NCAA tourney.
I sort of know what you mean when you say Wake outplayed Duke and UNC, but ultimately, basketball is not stockcar racing and you don’t get any extra points for leading most of the game or for having a big lead at some point during a game.
Such leads may, however, be indicative of superiority in a statistical sense, but it probably doesn’t make much sense to give extra weight to Wake for having “outplayed” Duke and UNC, unless you are going to subtract 3-4 points for the home-court advantage which would then wipe out both victories. Both Pomeroy and Sagarin have Duke and UNC still rated above Wake Forest. Greenfield has Duke, then Wake, then UNC, with all three rated almost identically, closer together than the difference between UNC and number four UConn.
It could be said Clemson outplayed UNC in two games during the regular season last year and in the ACC title game the Heels beat them straight up. Does that mean Clemson should have been top five? No because the extent to which they were able to match UNC, they had trouble down the road with other teams. I think the same might be true of Wake though I actually think Wake is better than Clemson was last season. The bottom line is Wake has to deal with going on the road and life in the top five means teams will give you their best shot. A young team might have trouble with that.
Yes, that is another good example. Wake does at least have two signature victories (which I will define as a victory over another team rated in the top ten), which Clemson still has not broken through on, on that score.
I guess some of what you guys are talking about has to do with mid-season “trash” talk down in North Carolina. Since I am up in Maryland, and Maryland and Virginia(with the big chokers VPI being next closest) are the two nearest teams, there is not a lot of trash-talking going on around here.
William — I live in Falls Church Virginia most of the year, but in the winter (including this winter) I live in Hawaii. How right you are that UVa and the Terriblepins have ample reason for modesty this year. And with Georgetown taking a dive as well, the basketball talk around Washington DC has gotten awful quiet.
Don’t get me wrong. When my eldest niece decided to go to Wake, I almost croaked. Now I have a nephew thinking seriously about Dook.
Ugh.
Where did I go wrong?
I lived in Falls Church for years but Virginia seemed to be changing and I moved to Maryland, which also had some better values. The greatest thing about moving here was finding out that people are just about as ACC crazy in DC as they are back in North Carolina.