What: College Basketball Armageddon 2009, Part I
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
When: Wednesday, February 11th, 9:00 PM
TV: ESPN or Raycom Regional
Livestats: ACC
Liveblogging: Yes
Records: UNC 21-2, 7-2 ACC; Duke 20-3, 7-2 ACC
Time to make a statement.
This game is what it is. The records do not matter nor does the fact that the winner assumes 1st place all by themselves. All these things do is raise the ante. Even without those stakes this game would be a war. UNC walks into Cameron with a whole team of players who have never lost at Duke. Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green will be seeking the rare four year sweep of Duke in a building that is oft proclaimed as the greatest college basketball crowd in the nation. It has been my sense that the reason UNC has managed three straight wins at Duke is this group does not seem rattled on the road. The Heels have only lost twice away from Chapel Hill since the beginning of last season. For all the hype concerning the Cameron Crazies it is pretty clear this UNC team is unfazed by the environment. Heck they may even feed off it or at the very least feed off serving them a play full of shut the heck up.
Concerning the basketball I think this is one of those strength on strength matchups. UNC top ranked offense versus Duke highly rated defense. While the Heels’ defense gets called into question quite a bit and a hot shooting night from three for Duke would position them to win given the issues Duke has a point plus the lack of any serious interior threat means the Heels can probably find a way to defend. That means the game hinges on whether the Heels can get the kind of offensive production they are capable of getting. In the two losses UNC shot poorly keyed mainly by the struggles of Ty Lawson. In this game Lawson should be able establish his game which leads to a good flow for the Tar Heel offense. Duke does not have the horses on the interior to handle Hansbrough and even when they did have the horses they could not handle Hansbrough. Assuming the Heels can get the ball inside it should help to open up the outside.
Wayne Ellington has been locked in of late and Danny Green has a big game mentality. Last season those two were specifically noted as being the players that did not shoot well then the Heels lost to Duke in Chapel Hill. There is an opportunity for redemption from those two as well as Lawson wanting to make a huge impact after missing the first one and being hobbled in the 2nd last season. Deon Thompson and Ed Davis will be extremely important in controlling the boards as well as playing defense on Kyle Singler.
This game always has an “anything could happen” feel to it. On paper the Heels dominance inside and at PG should be enough to see UNC to the win. However I know better than to believe this game will come close to unfolding that way. The possibility of a Duke offensive explosion is very real given the porous nature of the Heels’ perimeter defense. Still, if UNC brings their A game they should win, maybe even handily.
UNC 85 Duke 77
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I found this line from Seth Davis pretty interesting:
“Do they need Tony Robbins? Physically, Duke has all the pieces it needs to win a national championship. The question is whether this team has the mental fortitude to weather its first real piece of adversity. There’s no shame in losing at Clemson, but it was shocking to see the Blue Devils get run out of the gym without a fight. Their stupor carried over through the first 25 minutes of the Miami game before they rallied. Well, guess what: They’re not playing Miami on Wednesday. If the Devils are down 16 with 17 minutes to play, they could get run out of the gym again — and not even the best mental guru will help them recover.”
How often does a Duke team’s mental toughness get called into question, especially by Davis??
If I had to guess, I would breakdown the possibilities of potential outcomes as follows:
UNC by 10+: 35%
UNC by <10: 30%
Duke by <10: 30%
Duke by 10+: <5%
Some interesting numbers from last year:
Game 1:
Bench Scoring: Duke – 22; UNC – 4
3-pointers: Duke – 13/29, UNC – 3/17
Game 2:
Bench Scoring: Duke – 22; UNC – 30
3-pointers: Duke – 10/29, UNC – 5/11
By the way, for anyone who can program their DVR from work, ESPN Classic and ESPNU are both showing Duke-Carolina classics all afternoon. If you have ESPNU, it appeared to me, that they are showing a couple of the ones that are shown less often. I am getting sick of that 102-100 game, even though we won.
Should be a great game tonight. I’m going with North Carolina as well, but I think it’s going to be a close game that comes down to the end. Good luck to your Heels!
THF, is there a game guide to view anywhere. I am curious who will be officiating tonights game. I am hoping it will involve Gary Maxwell and Les Jones. Not hoping it will be Roger Ayers, Karl Hess, and Jamie Luckie.
J,
I cannot find that info but here are the six officials that worked the two ACC games last night:
Clemson vs BC: Mike Stuart, Les Jones, Joe Lindsay
UVa vs FSU: Jamie Luckie, Gary Maxwell, Bryan Kersey
Also, Karl Hess worked the Villanova-Marquette game last night which was at Nova. Ted Valentine and Rogers Ayers whereabouts are unknown.
I am not sure how these guys get moved around and what dictates assignments. It should be noted that the game at Duke last season which resulted in 0 FTs for Hansbrough and was a rough game in which nothing was called has this crew:
Karl Hess, Ted Valentine, Roger Ayers
I’m looking forward to seeing a fully-healthy Lawson in this game. If you remember from the Tar Heel Tipoff Show, Lawson pointed at the camera and said something like “I’m coming for you Paulus.”
Saw on TV last night that Greg Paulus will be starting at PG tonight for the Blue Devils. While it’s fun (and easy) to make fun of Paulus, you never know what you’ll get out of him; you can get the Paulus in the Miami game last weekend, or you could get the Paulus at the UNC game at Cameron last year. Lawson should be able to exploit Paulus’ lack of quickness and create some opportunities to drive the lane.
Interesting to note that (by percentage) UNC will actually be the better 3PT shooting team on the court:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/headtohead/team-headtohead/DUKE/NC
I hate that my bowling league night is on Wednesdays. I will be taping the game, and following the score on my phone. I wish THF’s liveblog had a way to be viewed on a mobile.
I’m nervous, because I have this weird superstition that if I think we have a game in the bank, then I could jinx it, so I go into every game nervous!
I hope to change out my Danny Green Posterizing paulus picture here at work with a new one to be honest!
I do like this picture I found on facebook.
http://img1.college-football-sports.com/img/showpics/77/6f/l36a39f6b0001_1_7292.jpg
I love that Dominic!
Not nervous, I probably should be though.
UNC 83 dook 79
Yeah, since the Wake game, we are shooting lights out, however, the difference between our percentage and theirs and their three point defense percentage advantage is about the same.
I drove about 90 on the way home, with my girl clenching the armrest, she didn’t say a word though. Got home right at the start of the second half. This is the same woman who said she wanted me to watch the game on her bday, in fact she insisted on it. Last night, she was actually rooting for UNC. Having never watched a game before that one on her bday, and not having any favorite teams really. It’s pretty cool that she is supporting the team I do! Being surrounded here in kansas by ku fans, she is getting a UNC sweatshirt, and a Tar Heel hat for V-Day, besides her other presents.