Wouldn’t that be funny after the 0-2 ACC start?
Back in early January, the media at large as well as many Tar Heel fans engaged in a freak out of epic proportions. The heavily favored Tar Heels were 0-2 in the ACC. Gone was the undefeated talk and according to some who were ready to crown Wake Forest the class of the ACC, gone was the possibility of the Heels winning the ACC regular season. Eight ACC games later the Heels sit atop the league having won every conference game since the early stumble. With six games left it is possible the Heels could end the regular season with a 15 game winning streak. Ken Pomeroy predicts UNC will be favored in each of the final six games but also says the odds point to a 13-3 finish when you account for those pesky factors the numbers cannot possibly consider. Here is what lies ahead.
2/15: at Miami(15-8 overall, 4-6 ACC)
Pomeroy Chances: UNC 68%
This has trap game written all over it. UNC coming off a big win, playing on the road will be ripe for a loss and considering this has been the trend in the ACC this season, UNC needs to be very careful. Wake fell victim to the letdown game twice, BC did after winning in Chapel Hill and Clemson also fell at home after blistering Duke. Miami actually played well after their big win versus Wake but lost at Duke in OT. Miami gave UNC plenty of fits during the game in Chapel Hill until Wayne Ellington heated up like a burrito in a microwave to bury the Hurricanes. In my opinion this game constitutes the biggest threat left on the schedule.
2/18: NC State(13-9 overall, 3-6 ACC)
Pomeroy Chances: UNC 96%
This should be a game of litte concern for the Heels. Obviously NCSU is not going to lay down and allow UNC to run all over them but given the way the last game ended I expect the Heels to drop the hammer pretty hard in this one. And if Miami manages to upset the Heels on Sunday, it will be a double helping of hammer dropping.
2/21: at Maryland(15-8 overall, 4-5 ACC)
Pomeroy Chances: UNC 84%
It’s Maryland. It will be a 3:30 game on ABC. You do the math. I expect this will be a tougher game than most think but I also think the Heels have enough of a talent gap to win this one handily. It should be noted however that Maryland has a better ACC record right now than Miami does. The Terps should not be taken lightly.
2/28: Georgia Tech
Pomeroy Chances: UNC 97%
The only question here is if Tyler Hansbrough wants to go out and drop 40 on the Yellow Jackets again. I would venture to say this is the easiest game left on the schedule but by “easiest” I mean UNC could still lose the game if they fail to show up.
3/4: at Virginia Tech
Pomeroy Chances: UNC 84%
I am surprised Pomeroy has it at 84%. This will be a tough game and also is a trap game. The Heels will have Duke in Chapel Hill four days later and if UNC is sitting at 12-2 with a clear path to the regular season it is possible they drop this one against an inspired performance from the Hokies. Seth Greenberg had his team ready to play in the ACC Semifinals after a beatdown during the regular season. This game should be much the same as the Heels’ ACC Tournament win.
3/8: Duke
Pomeroy Chances: UNC 71%
I would worry about this game for no other reason than the emotions of Senior Day and Duke hoping to exact vengence for spoiled Senior Days of Blue Devils past make this a difficult game. Of course it may also be a worthless game where the ACC standings are concerned if the Heels take care of business heading into this one.
If I had to guess right now, 13-3 sounds right and the ACC may well be decided by the time the Heels go to Blacksburg. I hink Duke will lose at least one more before seeing the Heels again and since UNC owns the tiebreaker on Clemson, they can afford a loss. That is assuming Clemson wins out, by no means is that even close to being guaranteed. It is possible the Heels can stake as much as a two game lead over the rest of the ACC and if they finish 14-2 they could be up a full three games by season’s end. I think 2nd place is 12-4 this season. Clemson is the most likely candidate in my mind to end up there. All the Heels can do is to continue to ramp up their play so they can throw it into overdrive once the postseason starts.
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If UNC goes 14-2, the ACCT basically become practice for the Heels.
Been done before! That should garnish a # 1 seed for UNC regardless of ACCT outcome. I just hate that Oklahoma has no real threat, come on, they play Texas, WOW.
Oh, I thought Oklahoma had already played their game w/Kansas. Here’s two teams for the hoping.
Can the HEELS finish 14-2 in the ACC?
Short answer: Absolutely
JBowling, don’t count out Missouri, especially if Oklahoma goes into the game with only 1 loss. (Unlikely) The tension keeps mounting each week when a team is on a long winning streak. If one believes in repetitive cycles, then Oklahoma will lose their next game against Texas Tech since they are on a 12 game winning streak. (The loss to Arkansas happened after a 12 game winning streak)
Of course, I’d say Duke is the game we have the best chance of losing because Duke is the best team left that we play. At number two, I would put the VT game because Seth seems to have Roy’s number a little bit.
Assuming we do win out, the question I have is whether winning the ACC Regular Season Title will get you a number one seed regardless of the tournament results. I have really enjoyed winning that tournament the past two years, but believe we won in large part because of our depth. With less depth this year, it might hurt us to play all those games unless we would lose a #1 seed, or perhaps Zeller is getting integrated.
wb3, UNC can get a #1 by winning out and not winning ACC, but I think we need to get past the first round to be safe. My question is what does Wake get if it wins out and wins the ACC tournament.
The ACC is predicted to get 8 tourney bids. If you win the Regular Season Title for a conference that gets 2/3 of its teams into the dance, you are a #1 seed. Period. End of story. No questions asked.
“My question is what does Wake get if it wins out and wins the ACC tournament.”
They get a #1 seed. Same goes for Duke or Clemson. Very real possibility that there are 2 #1 seeds from both the Big East and the ACC.
The 14-2 in the regular season carries a lot of weight, especially if they end up being two games or more ahead of the next team. They would need to make at least the semifinals though the Friday game could be versus Miami or BC. Unlike last season, there are not eight teams vying. There is a clear top four right now and as best as I can tell that top four likely will not change. If I seeded the field right now I would go:
UNC, Pitt, UConn, Oklahoma.
Memphis could break into that group should Oklahoma start laying eggs. Beyond that, no one else has been impressive.
If Wake wins out and UNC finishes 14-2 then both teams could get a #1 seed, especially if UNC loses to Wake in the ACC title game. That will greatly depend on what happens with OK, UConn, Pitt and Memphis as well. The question the committee has to ask is if UNC at 29-3 with two losses to Wake and one to BC is a more deserving #1 than Wake who lost to GT, VT, NCSU and Miami by 27. I think UNC gets the nod there.
“They would need to make at least the semifinals though the Friday game could be versus Miami or BC”
Key point, UNC will likely be playing a NCAAT-caliber team on that Friday, so they really won’t have the risk of it being viewed as a bad loss if they are to lose the first game.
Yes and UNC wants to play in Greensboro. I know Roy downplays this but playing two de facto home games to start the tournament is immensely helpful.
One thing we should keep in mind, of all the teams we’ve listed, the only one that is VERY likely to win out is Memphis, and they probably have the weakest resume to begin with. Point is, a lot will change in the next three weeks to (hopefully) make things clearer. (For instance, if UConn struggles w/o Dyson, the committee can, and will hold that against them.)
Maybe we can find some generosity with our loss of Zeller and Ginyard if things get a little sketchy.
I take it, C.Michael, that you’re saying that Memphis’ weak resume will not carry as much weight, and to that I agree. If really good teams beat each other at the end of the season, the committee tends to recognize and weigh that more in their favor. Another way of looking at Memphis, though, is that its’ SOS has always been questioned yet they came through big last year. True, this years’ team is not the same, but I think its’ credibility is a notch or two higher now. The thing that really hurts them is two early losses to middling Big East teams, but they’re playing much better now.
If they win out, that victory in Spokane over Gonzaga is going to be very important. You can argue if Oklahoma stumbles down the stretch and you get a Kansas or MO winning the Big 12 that Memphis rightfully deserves a shot assuming Clemson does not close out at 13-3 or 12-4 in the ACC plus another trip to the ACC title game.
i’d say that the VT game is my biggest concern. i agree with everything THF has said and i’ll add 2 more pts. 1) i believe VT is a tougher place to play than miami is, 2) depending on how the schedules shakes out, the VT could be the clincher for the ACC regular season title. i’m sure our players could handle that but it’s still unnecessary added pressure.
also, i like the phrase “dropping the hammer” on nc state. i actually would like to see UNC “drop the hammer” on mccauley in the process.
if memphis can sneak in there as a #1 seed, then so can michigan state, given that they win out. this would also boost our resume quite nicely.
“Maybe we can find some generosity with our loss of Zeller and Ginyard if things get a little sketchy.”
Not likely. In terms of Zeller, the rule is that a player has to come back for at least 10 games for a team’s performance with said player to count more than the performance before said players return.
Marcus isn’t coming back, and has essentially missed the entire year, so in the eyes of the committee, his loss should have no effect (positive or negative) on seeding.