According to Andrew Jones at Buster Sports he just might.
But Hansbrough just isn’t the same player he was a year ago. He is not a worse player like some idiots in this profession have said and written. He is just not as affective. And the reason: Shin splints.
The very injury that caused the reigning national player of the year to miss four of UNC’s first seven games has flared up again in recent weeks, and it has reduced Hansbrough’s overall effectiveness to “around 80 percent,” a source close to the UNC program said.
That is one reason Hansbrough has been playing away from the basket more frequently of late. Posting on the lower blocks puts more pressure on the shins, so to save some strain and keep him on the court, Carolina coach Roy Williams is moving his all-everything star around.
Andrew Jones is a former sports writer for the Wilmington Star. He was the first person I saw broach the possibility of Alex Stepheson’s transfer so his information tends to be reliable.
Roy Williams indicated a few weeks back that Tyler Hansbrough’s play was not related to the previous shin injury and at the time this may have been the case. That appears to no longer be the case. This would explain a great many things about Hansbrough in the past few games though I still think Miami’s zone and then the blows to his head had more to do with what happened on Sunday night than possible shin splints.
If Hansbrough is at 80% then Tyler Zeller returning is huge. Some depth on the bench will allow Roy to reduce Hansbrough’s minutes, at least through the rest of the regular season. If UNC an win their next three games(NCSU, at MD, GT) they ensure at least a tie for first and if Wake Forest loses once more they ensure a win outright regardless of what happens at VT and versus Duke. The season has reached a point where Roy can opt to reduce some of Hansbrough’s minutes and practice time so he is fully available come March/April. With Zeller back doing that just got easier.
Hat tip: wb3
![[Bloglines]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/bloglines.png)
![[del.icio.us]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/delicious.png)
![[Digg]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/digg.png)
![[Facebook]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/facebook.png)
![[MySpace]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/myspace.png)
![[Technorati]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/technorati.png)
![[Windows Live]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/windowslive.png)
![[Yahoo!]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/yahoo.png)
![[Email]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/email.png)
Here’s the thing: when I had shin splints running in college, there was a very specific (and effective) tape job that I got from my before practice and meets to alleviate the pain. I have yet to see Tyler’s shin taped during a game lately. I wonder if the 80% refers to the fact that Tyler only has 80% of his conditioning as a result of having to sit so much in the fall?
Regardless of whether the story is true, we know Tyler is getting beat up. Having Zeller spell Tyler the rest of the season, the ACC Tourney, and the first couple of rounds of the NCAA could be big. This may be why Zeller thinks he can help the team.
He’s not getting beat up more than last year, according to his fta per game.
The taping of shin splits is something some athletic trainers believe in, and others don’t think it does anything to help relieve pain/offer support. It would seem if this was a problem we’d see him applying ice on the bench, but maybe they want to keep it a secret.
Gosh, the guy is still averaging 21.1 ppg/7.6 rpg/52.2 FG%/83.9 FT%. Why is there all this talk about him struggling? Sure, he’s had a couple of ‘off’ games, but maybe that was because teams geared up to stop him exclusively, at the expense of letting others go off (notably Lawson, but Ellington as well). The guy is still All-ACC first team and very much in the discussion for All-America first team with those numbers on a top-three team. Plus, we’ve talked at length about the beating he’s taken this year, yet here are his stats last year: 22.6 ppg/10.4 rpg/54.0 FG%/80.6 FT%. His steals are down this year compared to last year as well. If you take his 3-point shots out of the equation, he shot 54.7% from the field last year, 52.7& this year. Not too shabby, IMO.
The averages are there(though down slightly) but I think people have noticed Hansbrough does not “look” as quick or explosive as he has in the past. Hansbrough is only averaging 19 ppg in ACC play and last year at this point was when he took the team on his back following the injury to Ty Lawson.
“If UNC an win their next three games(NCSU, at MD, GT) they ensure at least a tie for first and if Wake Forest loses once more they ensure a win outright regardless of what happens at VT and versus Duke.”
Not 100% true, but close. If UNC, Clemson and Duke win their next 3 (which includes Duke beating Wake on Sunday) then the ACC will look like this:
UNC 12-2
Clemson 10-4
Duke 10-4
WFU 9-5
If UNC were to lose to VT and Duke beat FSU and UNC, and WFU won out (including beating Clemson), the standings would look like this:
Duke 12-4
UNC 12-4
WFU 11-5
Clemson 11-5
Wake would get the tiebreaker over Clemson for sweeping them. Duke would get the tie break over UNC for having a better record against Wake.
That’s true. He has been a workhorse since day one. I wonder if some of that beating is taking a toll. I would be inclined to think not, since players continue to play great after 10 years in the 82 nba game schedule. Must be something else. But I don’t think he has played bad enough to make me think he is suffering from something.
Just found this on Inside Carolina, in the free section. I think this backs up what we’ve all witnessed and talked about the past few days.
[From http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/840308.html
The reigning national player of the year averaged 10.3 free throw attempts per game through the first 25 games of the 2007-08 season. That average through North Carolina’s first 25 games this season, in which Hansbrough has played 21 of those contests, has dropped to 8.9 attempts per game. In ACC play, the senior averaged 10.8 free throw attempts in the first 11 conference games in ‘07-‘08, while he is shooting 20 percent less (8.6) in ‘08-‘09.
A closer look reveals that Hansbrough averaged 12 free throw attempts in the first five games of the current ACC season, while shooting just 5.7 free throws per game over the last six. That decrease is directly correlated with his scoring average, which has dropped from 22 points per game in the first five league games to 17.2 over the last six. After a 55-game double-digit scoring streak, Hansbrough has been held to just eight points twice during the last half-dozen outings.
Very interesting. No doubt he’s stepping outside a bit more and his rebounding numbers are down, which likely leads to less FTAs, but seems like certain calls aren’t going his way.
The one thing Tyler was doing a lot of last year was catching the ball away from the post and then doing a spinning drive to the basket. That move made him virtually unguardable. I have not seen that recently.
“while shooting just 5.7 free throws per game over the last six”
Look closer at those 6 games and you will see something even more interesting:
2 home games: 9.5 FTA per game.
4 road games: 3.8 FTA per game.
Can’t say that that is surprising.
CM,
I was shooting for close since I did not have time to think it through. Bottom line is if UNC gets to 12-2 I think they will have clinched it at that point.
It’d be interesting to see Tyler’s year to year stats on the 3 point play the hard way aka and 1! It seems to me like Tyler picked up more and 1′s his Freshman & Sophomore year. This year, it looks like more players are making sure that if they’re giving up a foul on Tyler that they are making sure he has little chance of making the basket. Everyone’s played him enough to realize how strong he is and how hard you have to hit his forearms to prevent the 3 point play. I’m not sure where to find stats on 3 point play attempts, I’ll swing that question to Lucas’ mailbag.
THF,
I think that is a safe bet, as well.
I can’t remember if I heard it referenced here, or just straight from Roy in a pg, but I recall hearing Roy mentioning getting Tyler a step or two closer to the basket a POE. I agree with Minny–the same has been said of Wayne of late, but I think both are reliable scorers IF, their offense has balance and movement.
Yeah, one of the benefits of Tyler not receiving the calls, or Hansbrough’s double team is the fact he seems much more effecient at getting the ball to stride-ready shooters this season. So its not a completely bad thing.
What exactly are shin splints? Are they serious? Is my favorite player in the world going to be alright?
It is an inflammation of the tendons in the shin area caused by overuse. Runners get them, especially those who just start running. The pounding is what generally does the trick.
How long does it usually take them to heal? I recall we have a weeks break after Saturday’s game. Will he be better if he rests them during that time? How serious do they get? Do they go away? How painful are they? Are they common? Whats next if they don’t heal? How different are they from a stress reaction?
All FTA and PPG numbers aside, we’ve seen the difference in his style of play. He hasn’t been posting as low, aggressively backing down his defender, or going as hard for rebounds. You don’t have to watch much game footage to realize that he is playing differently than last season.
Sounds to me like the shin-splint flare up and the effect its had on his conditioning explains everything. He gets beat up, sure, but he deals with it differenlty now than he did last year, so it looks worse now than it did then.
Rest is the only real cure. If this report is true, then he will be iced after the game and have his practice time cut back or he will do the stationary bike to maintain conditioning. The week break coming up will help too.
They are not exceptionally painful but they can also turn into stress fractures if untreated. A stress reaction is actually past the point of shin splints. And they can be common in any sport you pound your feet on hard surfaces like running, basketball etc.
Ok thanks. I’m going to trust that Roy, Jonas and the medical staff know what to do. This scares me though.
He might be better at passing out of double teams this year, but last year he averaged 0.89 apg, and is averaging 0.81 apg this year.
Agree with everyone else here that he’s not getting the looks in deep like he did last year. Whether that’s a function of some physical ailment or just a change in opponents’ defensive game planning, I’m not sure. I think the teams playing zone against us limits penetration some, but is more designed not to allow Tyler 1v1 looks down low, in deep. You can play behind, dig down/double and still recover out of the zone easier. Other teams that play man also play behind, wait for him to start his move, then bring the double. Very effective when executed, as it makes it tough for Tyler to pass out since the double comes late after he’s committed.
I think if Deon continues his improved play of late, Zeller gives us positive minutes off the bench along with Davis, and we shoot it from the outside okay, Tyler will begin to see less and less double-teaming. If not, the other guys will hurt the opponents (like in the Dook game) and we’ll win anyway. That’s what makes this team great… so many explosive offensive weapons, and if teams sell out to stop one, we can hurt them with other options.
@uncgirl50 – If this is true about his shins, they’ll bother him until he can get extended rest (4-6 weeks). A week off may help a bit, but it takes longer to heal completely. It’s merely a pain thing, so I’m sure he’ll just push through and be fine.
How long does it usually take for them to turn into stress reactions and then fractures. If he takes special care of them will they still turn into anything serious?
“How long does it usually take for them to turn into stress reactions and then fractures.”
Varies from patient to patient. Generally shin splints are not something you lose a lot of sleep over.
That makes me feel better. Poor baby. I hope he’s going to be okay.
Argh!!! I cannot STAND Andrew Jones. I live in Wilmington and was glad to see him go. He would always put dook up on a pedestal and no matter what carolina did he didn’t care. I used to write him angry emails calling him out for being biased. Gah. Hopefully he’s wrong on this one.
I’m not a statistician by any means, and I certainly respect observational analysis as well as statistical analysis regarding any sports activity. I think one of the topics we’ve been discussing basically involves whether Tyler Hansbrough is simply not getting the calls he deserves. Some have given stats that show his free throws per 40 min. game, and have shown a fairly consistent trend his entire career. Of course these numbers just show how many times he shoots free throws, not all the times he has possibly been fouled and not had them called. I thought about gathering some information that would express this stat a little differently and would also compare it to other player in the ACC. Here’s what I found (Not really knowing what I would find):
Tyler Hansbrough:
2006 FTA per FGA = .72
2007 FTA per FGA = .72
2008 FTA per FGA = .70
2009 FTA per FGA = .69
Top 10 in FTA (2009 in the ACC – 5 forwards and 5 guards):
Hansbrough FTA per FGA = .69
Avg. of other 9 FTA per FGA = .56
(Only person in top ten higher than Hansbrough was Collins of Miami
and he gets fouled a lot because he shoots 58% at the line)
Compared to 23 other PF’s and C’s in ACC (2009) with significant minutes:
Hansbrough FTA per FGA = .69
Avg. (23 PF’s & C’s) FTA per FGA = .43
I don’t mean for these numbers to rebut or explain anything. I just thought they were interesting and put them out here. Statistics certainly do not explain everything about a phenomenon and I can’t positively say Tyler is not deserving of many more calls than he is getting. But outside of UNC fan forums and some general perceptions that exist, we might have a hard time convincing people of this.
I get shin splints a lot, and my basketball nights at the gym have gone down from four nights a week to two or maybe three a week. I’m obviously not in the physical conditioning Tyler is, but the pain they cause varies from person to person.
I also used to get them a lot in (laugh if you want) marching band and drum corps, especially when we rehearsed on concrete surfaces. Ice and rest is the best treatment.
Like others, I have seen something amiss in Hansbrough. He’s not as ferocious, explosive or, well, psycho as in the past. I don’t pretend to know what the problem is. But it’s not an illusion.
That said, he is still by any measure the heart and soul of this team. No one approaches his toughness, drive and guts. If he never scores another point for us, he will still be my favorite Carolina player of all time.
Much has been said here about how good we’ll be next year, and for the most part I agree with that. But it won’t be the same. Without Hansbrough and Lawson, the falloff in strength, determination and quickness will be huge.
I just thank my lucky stars to have been able to see Hansbrough play. More than anyone, he combines the skill and the heart that mark Carolina as a step above anyone else.
It is interesting how much more positive this site is towards Hansbrough than the Scout boards are, where many purported Tar Heel fans are much more negative about his game.
While I do think calls are missed with respect to him, I also think that part of it is that the officials are not giving him the call where he initiates contact anymore and there were quite a few of those in the past. I know that Duke fans used to make a similar argument about officials refusing to make calls when Redick was obviously fouled, in their opinion.
I also think that we are seeing that he needs to be able to hit the short jumper that Deon excels at because he is just not big enough to confront three guys in the paint. He may also need to work on passing back out when converged on.
I disagree that Tyler embodies Carolina basketball any more than Phil Ford or Michael Jordan or Eric Montross, but I put him up there with those guys and I am proud that he played for our school.
Goodness you just made me cry. I totally agree RS68. With everything.
Hansbrough has been passionate and completely awesome this year. In the rare case of one on one coverage he has been dominant (as in NCSU). What has changed is that opposing players are getting away with beating on him. Hopefully this will be addressed soon. Just watch how he is being pushed across the baseline and out of bounds, shoved and elbowed in the back and generally hacked like never before. As one team after another has been able to do this without a lot of fouls, more will do it. There is no difference in his effort. Concussions are really dangerous, and can easily be fatal if repeated. I think Coach Williams was trying to address the issue in his recent press conference a few times. I hope Hansbrough can at least get a fair chance!
uncgirl — Gads, I wouldn’t want to make you cry. But I see what you mean. No one who has seen him play for us will forget what he brings to the game.
william — I don’t disagree with you that much. All the players you name played with great heart; each was willing and able from time to time (with Ford, it was more than from time to time) to put the team on his back. Hansbrough is a worthy heir to their tradition, and IMO extends it to an even more awesome level.
The reason so many here, including me, are higher on TH than the scout boards is that we aren’t scouting him. I believe he should be judged for what he does in the role he presently occupies (i.e., as a college player) rather than for what he may or may not do in the NBA (which is speculative in any event).