“The best team won today. The toughest team, the smartest team [and] the best coached team won today. That’s all I have to say“
-Roy Williams during his Maryland postgame press conference.
Be warned…it is long.
Roy Williams postgame press conference took 2:28. The statement above was all he had to say outside of answering questions. For his part Roy viewed this as a complete failure of the team as a whole players and coaches included. I really am not going to argue with that. The question is, where did it all go wrong?
1. These Tar Heel lack a killer instinct
Yes. Yes. Yes.
Anyone want to know the difference between UNC and NC State at this point? UNC’s talent advantage gives them a greater margin of error when they decide to piss double digit leads away in the 2nd half. UNC has several results this season which saw them post a huge lead then give most of it back and even fall behind. It happened at Florida State, at Miami and again today. What happened today was inexcusable. A team with the Tar Heels’ talent should not lose a game when up 16 when facing an unranked team. If this sort of thing happened on the road at Wake Forest, Clemson or even Duke I could live with it. Against a team scrambling to find the top of the bubble for the NCAA Tournament does not strike me as a great sign since every team UNC will face from the 2nd Round on in the Big Dance will be better than this Maryland team.
A few years back I walked into my garage and saw a snake had come all the way in. I don’t mind snakes but when they come into the garage they must be dealt with. So I took a hoe, hit behind the snake so he would move away from the refrigerator then I pinned his neck with the hoe and pushed down to effectively incapacitate the serpent. Then I took the hoe and crushed his head making sure it was detached from his body. The Tar Heels seem content with hitting the snake a few times with the hoe and hope it dies on its own when what they should do is put the hoe on the back of the neck make sure the head is no longer attached to the body.
Kill the darn thing. Kill it dead then kill it again. UNC does not do this and today they snake came back and bit them.
2. Roy’s coaching
On one hand it seemed like maybe Roy had decided to let this one ride on the players. It had all the feeling of an object lesson for the players. However Roy specifically pointed to poor coaching as one of the reasons why the Heels lost so maybe not. The biggest complaint about the coaching today will be the lost 24 seconds at the end of overtime. UNC was down one and permitted 24 seconds to tick off the clock before taking the foul with 11 seconds left. My philisophy on the matter is you extend the game and put the other team in the pressure packed situation needing to make the FTs to maintain the lead. Fouling after 4-5 seconds of tough defense possibly garners you two more possessions. By waiting 24 seconds you played right into the leading team’s hands. Roy has not addressed why he chose to go this way and for all we know the players simply did not do what they were told to do. I also thought the final nine seconds of regulation were not handled correctly. A timeout at midcourt with about seven seconds left to diagram something might have produced a better shot. Ty Lawson seemed a little out of sorts bring the ball up and the Heels did not get a good shot which could have won the game. Outside of that, it was a mixed deal but Roy also took responsibility for it and that is all you can ask at this point.
3. The Heels defense
This game will be trumpeted as another failed defensive effort by the Heels defense. I disagree at least partially. I actually thought the defense was good for most of the game. The final ten minutes of regulation saw supporting elements on the Maryland team start scoring at will. The problem, in my mind, is the failure to score points essentially wasted the good defense. During the span Maryland was shooting around 33% the Heels were hanging around 38% mark in shooting the basketball. Despite the bad shooting the Heels were up 16. Had their offensive effort been closer to normal, that lead is probably 10 points more and the game is over. Maryland gets some credit for that. You also have games where the ball does not go in. I know Tyler Hansbrough had at least two shots rim out and the same was true for others. Danny Green got in foul trouble about the time Maryland started their rally back and at that point he was the best offensive option on the court but was relegated to the bench.
Now, if the offense struggles, that is when the defense should step up and compensate. In this respect the Heels’ defense was a major problem. Everyone has concluded that the Heels are probably as good as they ever will be on defense. Most of us have also concluded that without Marcus Ginyard there will be no lock down defense played on the perimeter. This is why Greivis Vasquez became the fifth ACC guard to drop 30-plus on the Heels. At this point we have no choice but to accept that the defense will be spotty at best and hope like heck the offense shows up every night out from now on.
4. All sorts of weird crap
I really have no other way to describe the combination of bad officiating and other stuff. Roy pointed out that the crux to the Maryland 9-0 run to tie the game was Tar Heel turnovers, three straight to be specific. That is not something we see this Tar Heel team do on a regular basis and it simply came at the worst time. The officiating was, well, crappy. I have stated many times that I do not believe officials cost teams games. I do think that bad calls can make things more difficult. This seems like one of those cases. UNC should have never put themselves in the situation to begin with. Once the game does tighten up and suddenly every call/non-call is the difference between winning or losing, it is easy to harp on the officiating. I personally thought the Heels got a raw deal with the officiating but if the Heels do what they are supposed to then none of that matters. Sometimes there is a bizarre series of events during games which lead to losses. As the adage goes: “That is why they play the games.”
5. Is this a good loss?
I have never been convinced there is any such thing. I do know that a loss like this can fit into the big picture so to speak. I also know that with a full week off before the next game, Roy will have the Tar Heel players convinced the loss was a bad one during practice on Monday and Tuesday. When you consider the odds of certain things along with the general ebb and flow of basketball seasons this loss is really not that surprising.
If we are to believe UNC will the national title then it was inevitable they would lose at some point between now and the NCAA Tournament. I actually thought it would be at Virginia Tech ten days from now. As it turns out today was the day. The Heels had won ten games in a row and if they were to run the rest of the table, win the ACC and NCAA Tournament it would mean they would have a 23 game winning streak when it was all over. Sorry, but that kind of stuff simply does not happen anymore. In a lot of ways the Heels were due a loss. A ten game winning streak is impressive and there was a cushion in the ACC standings so in many ways this is not a bad loss when the bigger picture is considered.
What you worry about with a loss like this is ending up in a tailspin, losing confidence or that it reveals some serious flaws. I am not sure any of those are true here with the possible exception of that last one. Then again it is not like we have not seen what we saw in this one before. That is probably a greater concern than the loss itself. UNC is an experienced team and they get a horrid Georgia Tech team next week. That should be enough to snap any funk the Heels might be in.
In terms of UNC history, no Tar Heel team has ever won a national title with more than two regular season ACC losses. 1957 went 14-0, 1982, 1993 and 2005 all went 14-2. At this point the best this team can do is 13-3. I am not sure how much stock would should put in historical facts like this but it is interesting to note.
Here is the bottom line on a loss like this. It stings like heck when it happens. I was most definitely pissed over it because I thought it was a game UNC had wrapped up and they gave it away. For Maryland this will end up being their biggest win of the season. Even with a quality win like this Maryland could still miss the NCAA Tournament so I hope this feels good for them now because when it is all said and done it may be all they have left.
For UNC this is likely a pothole in the road. You take the next exit, go to a gas station, check the tire, put some air in it, put some gas in the tank and get back on the road. The Heels have bigger goals in mind. The best thing they can do is take this for what it is, one of those odd ACC road losses that should be used as a learning opportunity. It could be argued this loss takes some pressure off. More importantly it afford the Heels a chance to get refocused for the stretch run. Being reminded of one’s immortality is not always a bad team. This team seems to need that and since you really cannot afford to do so in the postseason, this one will have to last them until April 6th.
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Excellent analysis. I might disagree with the need for a loss to win the championship. If all of the games are independent outcomes, losing one now doesn’t increase the odds of winning the title, except infinitesimally.
“What you worry about with a loss like this is ending up in a tailspin.”
This team hasn’t lost 2 in a row in almost 2 years. I doubt that this will result in a tailspin. Say what you want about them, but they have responded very well to losses in the past.
It is too bad they didn’t have the NCAA tourney third place game anymore, C.Michael.
Ha! Making kids play a game after losing in the Final 4 is cruel and unusual.
I agree with everything THF. Thank you for pulling everything I was thinking out of my head and putting it out for me so I can actually comprehend it.
We won it in 1972. That was a pretty good team.
Overall, this is probably not a bad week for us. I don’t want anyone to get hurt but UConn lost their version of Ginyard, which can only even up the defensive slate and now, Oklahoma may have to gut out some injuries. Maybe Pitt will be number one next week.
I REALLY,REALLY hope there isn’t anything going on internally we are not privy to with this team.The defensive lapses lead me to believe after 27 games everyone isn’t on the same sheet of music.
Hopefully they kill the snake by about 30 points next Saturday just because they can.
Totally agree with the breakdown THF…well said! I am looking forward to seeing how the coaches and players respond…
They will respond accordingly after a week off against an inferior GT squad.A 20+point beatdown,but if they don’t solve their defensive issues,its all a moot point come tourney time.
The strange thing is that they rebounded well(which also is not considered “fun.” Honestly, I wonder if our defensive schemes are more geared to the past when defending the “two” was more important relatively(or everything if you go back to 1982).
Of course, OK lost, so we blew the number one ranking.
Great analysis. I love Roy, but allowing 24 seconds to come off the clock before fouling really made it hard to come back.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that our last 2 national championship teams 1) never lost at home and 2) never lost after leading after the half.
Having said that, I believe in this team, and I believe they will bounce back in a big way.
I think that the 1957 Heels and the 1993 and 2005 Heels never lost at home, which is important. The 1982 Heels only lost at home once, to Wake Forest, but Sam Perkins did not play that game.
I think road games are fundamentally unlike anything you face in the NCAA tourney and that therefore, winning at home might be actually a better indicator than road record, but UNC has only lost one home game, so it is not exactly enough to base anything on.
What I would be looking at, if you want to compare with past champions, is whether UNC is better, or at least as good as anyone else in the country during the season. Well, how do you know, true.
But we have never won it when I felt like we had to have an upset to get to the Final Four, for instance, like in 1995 when Kentucky seemed better than we were and when several other ACC teams were just about as good. In 1998, we finished second in the ACC. That was not a good sign. How can you be the best in the country and only finish second in your conference, two games back?
Same thing in 1981. We finished three games back of UVa, I think. In 1987 and in 1984, we lost out of conference games, which is also not a good sign, which the 1993 team did as well, but only at the buzzer to Michigan.
I would look for a team that wins all of its out of conference games or only loses to another number one caliber team from out of conference. I would look for a team that wins the ACC regular season and perhaps a team that wins all of its home games.
Last year fooled me. I really did think we were the best.
william,
I still think we were the best. But the best team doesn’t always win the NCAA Tournament.
We were the best team offensively.
I agree. Kansas probably was the best back in 1957, but they weren’t that night. UNC probably was the best in 1998 and maybe even in 1997 but we lost our shooting touch both Final Four games.
Just so y’all know you don’t need to be number one in the nation, to be a good team. Feel good Heels fans, we are going to be okay!
The 93 and 05 teams also lost to Wake in the regular season. Just sayin’.
Wake has a tendencey to knock off good UNC teams.
The only good reason for a loss is if a team has an epiphany in a manner that allows them to come back better than ever. Every team, even championship caliber teams, has to go through periods of refocusing and recommitting themselves to their goals. This is still the same team that has been one of the favorites all along, and, unless you believe they have a fundamental flaw or a pipe dream, their chances are still very good to compete for the championship, as well as snag a #1 seed. I’ve been the most suspect of the Heels defense for a while, and though our stats aren’t bad, something is missing. It’s been there off and on….you know, the games where they get up in somebody’s face and hound them, where they make them fight to make a pass, make them put up bad shots. I actually don’t share the thought that we have defensive limitations so far as athleticism and ability are concerned. I think it’s all about desire and committment. I probably don’t remember the details of the tail end of our regular season in 2005 as well as some of you, but I’ve always had the impression that that team didn’t start getting serious about defense until fairly late in the season. It will be interesting to see how the team comes out next game and what they learn the next week in practice. But I suspect most of what they learn will be about themselves.
We Heel fans are supersitious by nature…in that we have seen too many good teams lose to too many iferior teams in the NCAA tournament. Therefore, we look to the signs of years past and hope to find answers in repition and common occurances. Let me say that none of that matters. It is what it is, and I beleive that this team is going to win the title. Today was simply your 3:30, Saturday Maryland game. We’re all just pissed that it went the way we (collectively) thought it would and we all wish that we could just sit back and (just as easily) predict Heels routs that actually happen! Right?
So, let me try:
Heels 97 Georgia Tech 85 (still knocking off the defensive cobwebs)
Heels 87 Virginia Tech 65 (who saw it coming? The defense!)
Heels 81 Duke 77 (what a comeback!)
ACCT:
Heels 105 Maryland 79 (go get ‘em Roy!)
Heels 90 Boston College 78 (reveng is a beach, right BC?)
Heels 89 Wake 82 (wait, they avenged all losses? Yes!)
Well, that was fun! Let’s try those predictions for accuracy.
Exactly Larry. Thank you! I beleive in this team and I hope everyone else does too. This I think is our refocusing period. This one week break is going to help us get to what we can be. We can be better on defense and this is our time to do that.
GO HEELS! TAKE EVERYHTING GIVE UP NOTHING!
Ditto on putting these thoughts down on paper; well said; the last 5 minutes in regulation was as frustrating as it gets; watching them unravel and wondering if there is even a coach on the bench. I am a Roy supporter as much as anyone, but it appeared he was trying to “wish” this one into the win column with a minute or so to play. Everyone knows this is a great team (although as pointed out, they better figure out how to play better defense)… I think it just stings a little more because it is later in the season and Maryland has one of their weakest teams in recent years; I’d like to see some redemption against this team in the tournament more than I would Wake or BC.
i’m still convinced that coach roy told the players to not foul hayes or vasquez. so the players waited for/tried to get those 2 guards to pass away. when it was clear that they were just passing to each other, we had to foul one of them. i STRONGLY disagree that our coaching staff had not provided direction at that point in the game. the plan just didn’t work out.
but in any case, THF, thanks for this post. very well thought out and written. and also, happy 3rd birthday.
btw, congrats to pitt. they’re the only team that deserved to be ranked #1 after this week.
Ok so here are my predictions
Heels 104 Georgia Tech 82 (out for blood but some issues on the D)
Heels 89 Virginia Tech 63 (totally bringing it on the D!)
Heels 90 Duke 85 (*sniff* Senior Night! what an up and down game)
ACCT
I’m not that smart when it comes to picking matchups (but i love my NCAA brackets) so I’m not going to go there. But I say we sweep it.
HeeledSoul
I know Roy told them not to foul Hayes or Vasquez (who I am really annoyed with) but did they have a choice? Maybe not. I’m concerned with the end of the second half for the most part. I’m not sure whether that was the players fault or the coaches fault or a mix of both.
uncgirl-
Nice picks! I too agree that Pitt are most deserving #1. The Blake injury is a huge blow for Oklahoma, who must play Kansas next.
Given the way this season has gone, I’m thinking that the Heels are gonna be okay. The coaching staff has a crystal-clear picture (as if they didn’t already) of what needs to be done.
LarryS, I think that is a very perceptive post and explains pretty much the only way in which losing can be a positive.
The idea that you can only throw so many heads in a row is actually stochastic nonsense, and avoids the fact that somebody has to win the championship, which makes it a very different statistical proposition.
UNC was 31-0 against Kansas in 1957 and Kansas was, I believe, 24-2. Kansas did not have an advantage simply because UNC had won 31 in a row. UNC had better talent across its roster but most people believe that Kansas had the better team and would probably win 7 games out of ten or more against the Heels. I simply refuse to believe this was a good win or necessary for winning the title, unless, as LarryS says, it was a type of epiphany, or unless it was just a meaningless February loss on the road.
Oklahoma will come tumbling down without Griffin. Pitt is number one right now but that could change, don’t fill out your brackets yet!
You know William, when you said “just a meaningless February road loss” I know the context in which you meant it. But it got me thinking about the fact that, although all coaches will say every game is important to us and the players always want to win, you know that it’s hard for them to get up, psychologically, for every single game of a 30 game season. Sure, they’re competitors with a lot of pride, but they’ve pretty much been the “annointed ones” from the first day, and we know the prize they are all really after. It’s got to be a true mental challenge to have all those expectations from everyone including yourself. Not to mention the fact that every team you play circles you on their calendar. Sometimes I have trouble getting motivated to do the smallest things ( my age is starting to show) , and that understanding always makes me more inclined to give the kids a break.
That is true, LarryS. Look how terrible Florida was in February two years ago.
And about the defensive thing, look at Maryland’s tying score in regulation. Ty appeared to be right on Vasquez. He couldn’t have covered him much more tightly, but Vasquez just shot it over him. We always have to remember that sports, like life, involve costs and benefits. We could have had Vasquez or Teague instead of Ty and they probably would have defended opposing guards better, but would our team have been better? No.
No one ever accused Muggsy Bogues of a lack of desire and he was one of the most highly rated offensive players in the history of the NBA but was only a part-time starter usually used for offensive punch, but he was still a great player for Charlotte and Wake, even though other guys probably shot over him all the time.
Like I said, had Roy not proclaimed he stunk it up as a coach in this one, I would have sworn he let it ride as a lesson game knowing it did not matter in the big picture.
Assuming they win out, but it also means that they might now need to win the ACC tournament, which is probably fine with most of us here since Roy has a chance to match Dean by winning three in a row.
THF, even when coaches admit to shared responsibility I’ve never really felt they were that sincere. Maybe so, but it always feels like more of a technique to deflect criticism of the players. I’m sure he would like to save most of his criticism for practice next week. I’d love to be the proverbial fly on the wall.
UNC had plenty of chances to put this game away in regulation and overtime. When opportunities are lost things just don’t turn out well. Maybe this is the best defense the team can play. Hansbrough made lots of passes out of double and triple teams. Maryland did play well overall, although it was crazy how they survived the first half. It would seem that a killer instinct then would have led UNC to a humiliating lead rather than what actually happened. Maybe some coaching was involved. NO question this is a game the team will learn from.
I agree, William, about certain plays where Ty did about as well as he could on Vasquez. Vasquez is tough to guard when he’s spotted 7″ and having a career day. My biggest problem was that Hayes and Tucker combined were 26 points above their season average, (Vasquez was 19 above) and I just didn’t feel Maryland was that potent an offensive team. I guess I was wrong.
Some of that has to go on Wayne and Bobby. Honestly, I know there are a lot of intangibles in basketball that don’t show up on the stat sheet. Bobby Frasor must be just about the greatest player in UNC history at such intangibles given his fruitless offense.
Isn’t Duke supposed to be great at defending the three? How has Frasor gone 0 for February, except for 3-4 against Duke from three point range? And let’s face it, most of us would still trade a Duke victory for a Maryland loss, so I am thankful he hit that one game but honestly, it was probably just random. Vazquez has had a disappointing season in a lot of ways and they lost by 29 points the other night. The Lakers lost to somebody crummy after they beat the Celts and the Cavs. Eso es el baloncesto, no?
Oh, absolutely. Bobby and Wayne too. I mean Ty’s good, but there are only so many people he can guard at one time.
Everyone seems to have their Carolina Blue blinders on.If the DEFENSIVE issues don’t get resolved………it’s just another “good season.”I would hope as Heel fans we would aspire for more and hold them to a higher standard.It’s reality.A 30 win season for most teams calls for a “team parade.”If we don’t win a NCAA title this season,it’s failure.Sounds harsh,but once again.REALITY.We are UNC!
“Look how terrible Florida was in February two years ago.”
Good point, william. After winning their first 11 SEC games, Florida lost 3 of 4 from February 17th to February 27th. They the regrouped, beat Kentucky, and swept the SEC and NCAA tourneys.
As for Frasor, he did have 7 rebounds, so it’s not like he did nothing.
Anyone want to bet that when the bracket predictions come out on Monday the #1 seeds remain unchanged?? Their had been a lot of talk about the top 4 separating themselves, so I guess we’ll see if that was just talk.
“If we don’t win a NCAA title this season,it’s failure.Sounds harsh,but once again.REALITY.”
You’re right, it is harsh. The reality is, luck plays a role in winning 6 in a row in March. Kansas just barely got by Davidson last year. UF had scares from Butler in 2007 and G’town in 2006. UNC barely survived ‘Nova in 2005, and the list goes on. Because of that luck factor, it is impossible to say, “NCAA Title, or bust.”
I really think we have to look at this team differently than we did after Ty,Danny,Wayne declared they were coming back. A critical piece to the puzzle (Marcus)is missing.
I’m in no way shape or form a basketball analysis, but I have watched my beloved Heels for Decades. As I watch this team offensively they do not run good sets. Meaning we seem to run some three person curl at the top of the three point line, or the three teared pass, inside back out back inside. I see other teams sending guys through screen after screen looking for a shot.
We have superior talent in the league. That is why we have won many of our games. Many of our guys can score at will. We almost have an NBA feel to our offensive, with less spreading of the floor.
Defensively we are so-so to down right bad. For a team that plays man to man D we sure lose or assigned player for open shot’s a lot.
What happened to Wayne this year? I see not a lot of productivity out of him in critical times when you want your silky smooth shooter to drain it.
Tyler is not the same guy he was last year. I truly believe that is because the officials are letting him get killed and he is not getting to the free throw line as much. The no foul calls are letting teams double him without fear of a call. They have rendered him basically useless.
Danny is better than last year, Tywon is better than last year.
Deon, I see no fire in him. offensively or defensively. Just like last year and the year before.
Davis is going to be a stud if he stays around.
If this is how we play defense with a team full of seniors and juniors then this is how we as fans need to get in a mind set before every game that they will not show up defensively.
Sorry this is so long and rambling but dog on it it is starting to look like last year was our opportunity to win it all.
I’m tired of hearing Roy complain about defense. He’s the coach, if we can’t play a certain defense than he should find one we can play. He wants us to fight thru screens instead of switching (Dook switches). The main reason is to avoid mismatches. If we can’t execute it though we need to change. This group over the last 3 years has pretty well proved they can’t execute this defensive philosophy at a consistently high level. The reason we don’t stop dribble penetration is because we are stuck fighting thru the pick. How many opposing players, getting career highs against us, does it take before you make the switch. Also, I realize the importance of saving timeouts, but during some games(Kansas) you need to take one. Not for coaching your team, but to interrupt the rhythm of the other team. (why is it called icing the shooter or kicker) I love Roy, he is a HOF recruiter, he needs to be a HOF coach which means getting the best results with the talent you have.
BTW, what a week this was:
4 of the top 5 lost (UConn, OU, UNC, MSU)
5 of the Top 9 have lost or will lose (UConn, OU, UNC, MSU, Wake/Duke)
11 of the top 25 have lost or will lose (UConn, OU, UNC, MSU, UCLA, Xavier, Washington, Butler, Utah St., Wake/Duke, ‘Nova/’Cuse)
Have fun filling out your poll this week, THF!!
wpe022, you are right on the money.
Did anyone see the piece yesterday on ESPN on Blake Griffin, about all the really hard fouls he gets, an image showing him with blood streaming down his face, and comments by him on how he has learned to be cool and not retaliate? I think he is first or second in the nation this year in FTA. And seeing him sitting on the bench last night, against Texas (possible concussion), holding his head and trying to stop a bloody nose was eerily reminiscent. It looks like Oklahoma has its’ version of Tyler Hansbrough. BTW, Oklahoma played a pretty tough game without Griffin, and their Willie Warren is a player.
Good analysis. I do think that what we saw is not an indicator of this team’s lack of toughness or lack of killer instinct, but just a team that has clear weaknesses. When Danny Green goes out of the game we lose one of the two players we have who can actually play defense and perhaps our most talented player overall. All three losses have involved him having foul trouble. Frasor had some big rebounds, but as william has pointed out is an offensive nightmare. I would absolutely prefer Drew get more than 4 minutes in this situation as Bobby has done little to deserve 25. The wide open threes were mostly a result of having to help out on penetration (heh). Maryland is a pretty poor offensive team but they put up 179 points in the two games and if we run into a guard oriented team like that, I’m not sure how we’ll defend them. Lawson and Green were great offensively but when you have 4 guys taller than anyone they play (Neal is 6’7″) and you only get 29 points out of them, something has gone wrong. Wayne and Danny won’t go 2-10 from outside very often, but at least a few of those trips should have seen us get the ball inside. Early in the second half I thought Maryland might win, but I could not believe the last minute and a half. Silly stuff and even though the charge was a bad call, it was irritating to possess the ball for 5 seconds in two late possessions with a lead. Make them foul ffs or have Lawson go to the basket with 5 on the shot clock.
Anyways, I’m trying to remain even keeled. We have a very good team but not anything close to an unbeatable one. We absolutely can play well and lose. The team is tough enough to come back in Cameron and win close games in Miami and Tallahassee. If the lessons learned are 1. Danny must stay out of foul trouble. 2. Use the player of the year often when the other team has no bigs. 3. Score more points than the other team.
First of just because we are UNC doesn’t mean we will be a failure if we don’t win a championship. That is plain STUPID. As long we have a good season and we have healthy happy seniors going out that door, we will be a success. This whole “we are UNC” thing simply means we have heart, we have talent, we have class and we have tradition. It does not mean that every year we don’t win a championship we fail. Some years we may not have a championship team. Do we fail then? No. A championship is the icing on the cake, but I can eat my cake without icing. I want my boys to win it all, but I’m not going to say they failed if they don’t.
Second of all this team has heart and intensity it just has a few holes. We need to develope the players that can fill those holes into hole-fillers. Danny and Ty are amazing but I see some holes behind them. Unless Tyler is going to step up even more(I think he reached the top of the stairs.) we need Wayne and Deon to be our next offensive weapons. Tyler is the same Tyler it’s just harder for him to get calls because he is Tyler Hansbrough. Bobby is a great defensive player but needs to be an offensive player as well. We have a tanlented bunch of guys but we need to get them to click to form a consistent, well functioning team.
I’m done now. Feel free to point out any mistakes I may have made.
Good comments, Jackie, and I liked what you had to say about Danny staying in the game. As others have said, he has the ability to be our best defender and his versatility is tops on the team. Also, if we do nothing but accomplish #3 in your “lessons learned”, we will be snipping the twine in Detroit.
uncgirl50, I don’t think you made ANY mistakes, and I especially appreciated your take on the proper perspective for viewing our teams’ relative successes and failures. You are going to make an excellent lifetime Heels supporter.
Oh no. I nearly cried when I read this.
Q:Do you have any idea about why you haven’t been going to the free throw line as much lately?
A:”No, I haven’t really pinpointed anything, necessarily, with why I’m not going to the line. Maybe it’s me.”
Q:Is that a concern for you?
A:”No, I’m not concerned about that right now. I just want to win ball games.”
This is what Tyler said. Oh he thinks its his fault. Oh no! Poor baby. It’s not him it’s the stupid refs! I hate them! How could they make this amazing player fault himself for something entirely their fault? I hate them so much!
Larry: Thanks, thats the highest compliment you can give me. You could tell me I was smarter than Albert Einstein and it wouldn’t mean as much as that.
I enjoy statistical analysis as much as the next stats geek, but put little credence into the winning margin for road wins against opponents whose mascot name starts with the letter “T”, or “W” for leap years ending in “8″. The problem with stats in basketball is akin to stat-hogging in baseball: games are played on the field or the court, not in 3-ring binders. Just ask Billy Beane, all the stat-crunching hasn’t brought the Oakland A’s a World Series.
I think 12-4 will be sufficient to clinch the ACC regular season title. I hope, of course, for 13-3 but obviously there’s a margin for error in my arithmetical computation. FSU still has BC and Duke on the road, Clemson has FSU and Wake on the road, Duke has VT and UNC on the road. Wake is at Duke tonite…a huge game for 1st – 3rd place implications.
Maybe I’m wrong, but perhaps history will prove this to be a very winnable game on the road that got away dude to poor execution when absolutely necessary. I said otherwise, but we can’t expect the ref whistles to bail out poor decision-making in late game situations.
[...] Five Thoughts from Roy on the Maryland game. [...]
I couldn’t see the game yesterday since I had to work and forgot to DVR is:( but I want to make a couple of comments.
We are not a ‘lock-down’ type of defensive team. We also aren’t a good defensive team. I think when we hit our shots we tend to play better defense, but when we don’t make shots our defense suffers. This isn’t a good trend.
Danny Green can block shots, but he’s not a good defender. His off-ball defense is horrid. He has no concept of ball-you-man principles, and that’s why we rarely see him guard guys like Teague, McClinton, etc. Wayne draws those assignments and is laterally slower than about anyone else at his position in the ACC, but we can’t slide Danny over to take those assignments because he loses shooters off the ball and tends to drift and watch for opportunities to block shots and go for steals.
The other thing to consider is we lost to a team with its collective back against the wall, both in terms of NCAA Tourney hopes and its coach being on the hot seat. The win probably solved both of those problems. Maryland wasn’t just a snake yesterday (great analogy THF) they were a hungry, poisonous snake.
“they were a hungry, poisonous snake.”
In their den, no less…
THIM,
You may be right that we’re not a good defensive team and I certainly agree we haven’t shown any lock-down capabilities. Maybe this is a matter of subjective terminology (poor,fair, average,good,very good,excellent,outstanding), a matter of simple observation, or a matter of ranking (although we are in the top 20 defensively). I really want to give Maryland due credit but I still think the outcome yesterday was more about us than them .
I think grading defense is subjective, and the pace we play is obviously going to allow more points. Our MO is create transition/easy opportunities, either by A)superior defensive rebounding leading to quick outlets; B)running off made baskets, and this team is one of the best I’ve seen in the last 15 years at this; or C)creating turnovers through speed, getting deflections, etc.
When teams are able to run their ‘stuff’ in the HC, we aren’t adept at taking away said ‘stuff.’ It seems like teams (Miami, BC, Wake, and now Md.) are routinely able to get its first option on offense seemingly at will. This is troublesome. When I think about playing games in Domes in the Sweet 16 or Final 4, shooting percentages tend to decrease. If we can’t/won’t pound it inside to Tyler and Wayne and Danny aren’t hitting from outside, it leaves us fairly one-dimensional on offense (Tywon). Basically, many of you are saying (and I agree) our best defense is our offense, because when it clicks (2nd half @Dook) no one can stay with us.
THIM, your mention of our ability to create turnovers and our defensive rebounding (and the creation of points as a result) are definitely our strengths, and our ranking in those catagories does give us a measure of objective criteria in grading our defense and looking at it as a whole. And you’re right, a lot of us do agree how good offense can create better defense- it works in a lot of different sports and that axiom exists for a good reason. But in the absence of a good offensive effort……..you have to go to plan “D”
I agree that you have to go to plan “d” but I’ve yet to see this team, in its current form, do that. And I don’t see it happening. That’s not to say we can’t win it all… we’ll just need to be better offensively and get a little lucky. We’re not going to get better defensively at this point if we haven’t already. I’m resigned to that fact.
wpe022 and JackieManuel, very good comments.
I hope you guys will post more often. The points about screens and dribble penetration are excellent. It makes me remember Villanova, who played four guards against us in 2005 and we actually defensed them pretty well but had a tough time scoring and running out the clock, like yesterday.
UNCGIRL-You are obviously a “young” fan and don’t fully grasp the concept of UNC basketball.
With THIS team…If we don’t win a NCAA title its FAILURE.Ask ANY player or Roy an I’m SURE they would concur.
Jackie,
Someone asked on Friday who was the backup at the three if Green is out. The answer is there is no backup at the three. If Green goes out Roy will either go three guard or three bigs. In those cases UNC’s offense gets limited to some extent since they lack that 6-6 forward who is versatile. Plus Green shoots 46% from three so taking that kind of offense off the floor hurts. Green needs to stay out of foul trouble. I think for him it is a matter of playing smarter.
I think it will be perceived by virtually everyone in the media and by the casual fan as a failure of great proportion. I think that people who are into statistical analysis of basketball realize that winning six games, or at least, five games against good competition on neutral courts is susceptible to various and sundry random factors.
Long story short: With most of his Final Four squad back and a highly publicized recruiting class, Roy will be in for criticism more severe than he faced in 1997 when his 37-1 Jayhawks lost in the round of 16.
It may not be fair, but such criticism will happen. I also don’t think people will buy the lack of Ginyard, any more than they would have bought (actually less so) the lack of Al Wood back in 1982.
H8,
Disappointment? Sure. Failure. Not buying that. I do think if they do not reach at least the Final Four it will be considered a huge letdown given the hype coming in. I also would point out that hype assumed a healthy Marcus Ginyard which the Heels have not had.
The NCAA Tournament is extremely difficult to win that is why Duke, UNC, UK and Indiana are the only four teams to win at least three since the UCLA dynasty ended. It is why only UNC can claim titles in each of the last three decades. So I have a lot of trouble calling a team that fails to win the title after making the Final Four a failure. It will be really disappointing but if they ended up 36-3 or 35-4 that is a great season and an outstanding two year run.
“and don’t fully grasp the concept of UNC basketball.”
UNC has 5 titles in 99 seasons, so by that logic, UNC is an absolute failure as a program. I think it is someone else who doesn’t fully grasp the concept of UNC basketball.
Let’s be fair, until George Mikan and probably, not until Bill Russell at USF in the mid-50′s nobody cared who won the NCAA title. The NIT was supposedly bigger. UNC has four titles since Russell basically integrated college ball and after UCLA, that is about the best of anybody. So, that is four titles in 52 years, which still shows that it is frickin’ hard to win one….
I don’t have a problem with the casual fan’s concept of failure because their expectations are usually unrealistic. The problem I have is with the media and its’ analytical ego. The “experts” proclaim the favorites, hype their superiority, project their success, and criticize their failure. As if no acheivement or unknown talent can exist outside of their realm of knowledge or understanding. And the casual fans and general public buy in to all of it. (Heck, I’ve done it myself) This doesn’t mean there is no such thing as a legitimate favorite or teams that have superior talent, but the latest, greatest thing since sliced bread, best team in the last umpteen years syndrome should always be taken with a huge grain of salt. If you don’t your always going to set yourself (and your favorite team) up for failure.
Ginyard can’t be used as an excuse.With the talent on THIS team,you adapt,overcome and step up.I’m NOT a casual fan.I went to school at UNC,and work there now.If you consider beating dook and possibly another acc championship your crowning glory,,,so be it.I hold them to a higher standard.You consider being EMBARRASSED by KU last year a success? Once again.IF you were to ask any player or Roy on THIS team if they don’t win the ring,they would agree.I know the standard set forth.i live it everyday.
If Roy, K and Dean are going to spin the yarn of being better coaches(or at least allow it to be spun) than their competition, then they have to take the good with the bad. Lefty, Norm Sloan, Valvano and Frank McGuire never did that. Red Auerbach was the worst offender in this category but he was smart enough to retire before his comeuppance came.
Players win games. Talented players win the most games. Coaches may pull out a game here or there, but they also lose them.
Cmichael-keep your head bury in the sand..k?
Let’s be civil. C.Michael probably has more insightful posts than anyone, so we should consider his thoughts and counter with countervailing facts.
“Ginyard can’t be used as an excuse.With the talent on THIS team,you adapt,overcome and step up”
Granted but the expectations attached to this team were predicated on Marcus Ginyard starting, Green coming off the bench along with Frasor, Graves, Davis, Drew and Zeller. That is no longer the case. This team is not the same team we assumed would be a full stride ahead of everyone else. Yes they need to adjust but so must the expectations. The gap the Heels enjoyed on paper before the season began is not there now. They have come back to the pack some and if they do not win the title I am not sure you can call it nearly as big of a choke job as you would if they were completely intact and healthy.
I agree that if a person believes that Roy Williams is a genius coach, apart from other coaches out there, then he deserves a large part of the blame for the Kansas debacle. How can you have it both ways?
He took a lot of the credit for molding Doherty’s players, which many would argue was simply a typical maturation process (19-16, 19-11, 33-4) coupled with a key recruit like Marvin Williams. I find it difficult to argue that either Dean or Larry Brown would have done more poorly coaching the team against Kansas last year, had Roy, say been incapacitated, or like a lawyer does, recused himself from coaching. Bill Self has already proven to the Kansas fans that no man is irreplaceable.
Hopefully, if we do get Kansas again, which is somewhat likely, the result will be much better.
H8,
I will gladly keep my head in the sand, but I prefer to not have to take it out because people are insulting fellow contributors. uncgirl50′s age has nothing to do with her ability to, “grasp the concept of UNC basketball,” nor does the fact that her opinion differs from yours. We all have our own, personal, definitions of what makes a successful season. There isn’t one right answer.
I have to say that I assume that a large portion of UNCgirl50′s comments are tongue in cheek, because they sound like things I used to say when I was in first grade, and I enjoy them as satire:
“Oh no. I nearly cried when I read this.
Q:Do you have any idea about why you haven’t been going to the free throw line as much lately?
A:”No, I haven’t really pinpointed anything, necessarily, with why I’m not going to the line. Maybe it’s me.”
Q:Is that a concern for you?
A:”No, I’m not concerned about that right now. I just want to win ball games.”
This is what Tyler said. Oh he thinks its his fault. Oh no! Poor baby. It’s not him it’s the stupid refs! I hate them! How could they make this amazing player fault himself for something entirely their fault? I hate them so much!”
Wow…Duke is acting like they have won the title. Lots of hugs. And now Giminski is starting the “Don’t count Duke out, they are ready to make a run now” meme. That will be viral by Wednesday.
It’s the “Bandwagon of the Day” effect. Yesterday they sucked. Today they’re Final Four candidates. Tomorrow it’s what the heck went wrong. And I’m not talking about Duke in particular, I’m doing a good-natured mocking of this very fickle process that is college basketball. And it kind of reminds me of some of the conversation we’ve been having. (Losses seem to always do that) We’re in this for the long haul so let’s let it play out, and try to enjoy in the process.
Who said anything about a “choke job???” Who said anything about EVERY season being a failure if we don’t win it all??? If you would take the time to read THOROUGHLY,you would realize I said “THIS” team.Also calling someone’s post “STUPID” is not by any means being civil and reflects their limited knowledge/concept of Carolina basketball.
You know, I have been thinking about this. Everybody has a right to be the kind of fan they want to be. K-mart Tar Heel fans are better than Wake or Duke or State fans. If they are not against us, better they be with us.
I see this stuff on the Scout boards by some UNC fans that basically would exclude THF himself, as well as C.Michael, Thad Williamson, Dean Smith and Bill Guthridge from being “true” fans, because they did not graduate with us from UNC.
http://www.amazon.com/More-Than-Game-Carolina-Basketball/dp/1878585215/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1235358453&sr=1-2
Carolina basketball is bigger than that and is big enough for all of us different types of fans.
There have been times in my life when I have been more into UNC basketball than I have been at other times. I can’t claim to have watched particularly intently in 2000. I actually planned a trip abroad when it wasn’t clear that UNC team would even be in the NCAA tournament. That team just didn’t grab me, although of course I watched all the games after the Sweet 16 surprise win against Stanford, which I missed. Anybody got a DVD of it?
I actually did not watch the famous BC-UNC game back in 1994, although I listened on the radio. We had won the year before and I had to return home from a wedding and I assumed we would win, an assumption I wouldn’t make this year.
But I have no problems with Heel fans that say a certain loss is going to make them stop paying so much attention for a while. It is just a game and if they decide that they saw something in a game that turned them off from basketball for a while, then so be it. Basketball doesn’t always merit supreme attention, I am not going to attack them for being “bandwagon fans.” Let’s all have respect for each other’s level of involvement and enjoyment.
H8,
We’re all here because we love Carolina basketball, and at this site in particular because everyone attempts to treat everyone else with a great deal of respect, including all opinions even though we may disagree. We’re also glad you’re here to contribute and welcome your input. Sometimes things get off on the wrong foot because not everyone is a true diplomat with words so, maybe we could stop, take a deep breath, and relax. You are, in fact, in friendly territory.
Point taken Larry,but I DIDN’T call anyone’s post stupid!
You’re right, William. I certainly don’t mean to be disrespectful and mock any individual or their perspective of basketball. It just never occurs to me to get turned off by any loss because I love the game so much and view it all as part of the process. And I’ve never defined my absolute pleasure of being a Tar Heel fan by their wins and losses. But I will be more patient with those who get more up and down with it…that is perfectly natural.
LarryS never said that. I was trying to gently get across in a post above that we should not take everyone’s comments on here at full import. You kind of have to just read through some posts that annoy you and there are sure to be those that annoy each of us.
People who hate stats (and internet history, whatever that is, lol) have learned to tune out me and C.Michael, I think.
Other people get on here to post jokes or to engage in satire or just to even be downright silly.
You will know when someone is attacking you personally and THF will probably terminate them if they continue to attack anyone personally.
H8,
Check this out:
http://www.tarheelfanblog.com/2009/01/about-last-night/
I wrote this after things on here got chippy following the loss to Wake. These are the basic ground rules readers at THF should follow in the comments section. You are welcome here since we are all Tar Heel fans and we should save our best shots for the Duke and NCSU fans in our respective lives.
Thanks
I apologize if I offended anyone. I am particuarly touchy on that subject and I over-react alot. H8, I did not mean to call you or your post stupid. It was silly of me to act so childish.
But I really am hurt by your comments. My youth has nothing to do with the fact that I love UNC and follow it almost religously. I think I actually do “fully grasp the concept of UNC basketball”. Isn’t UNC basketball about the things I mentioned earlier? Heart, talent, class and tradition?
Tyler said (and I quote) “I don’t think it’s going to make or break our season, but it sure would make a great ending to a good college career.” I don’t think he will think walking away without a title is a failure.
Again I apologize for behaving so childishly and for over-reacting the way I did. Please forgive me?
William, my comments reflect my age and my gender. I’m a girl and I’m pretty young so I make comments like that. But I would love to be taken a little more seriously sometimes.
I understand that UNCgirl50 and I think everyone feels kindly towards you as sort of the female mascot of the site. I suppose you must be in 12th grade or so?
You should continue to post however you want, and the content of the posts will determine how they are ultimately taken. You have had several that were insightful and several were funny. You don’t have to change for my sake. I mean I thought the following line was hilarious as satire or as the way we all want to shout out at times:
“It’s not him it’s the stupid refs! I hate them! How could they make this amazing player fault himself for something entirely their fault? I hate them so much!”
Two points:
1. As older more experienced UNC fans we are duty bound to educate the younger fans among us. uncgirl50 comes here because she loves UNC and also because she wants to learn more about the Heels. I for one think this is a good place to do that since we have folks who have a great grasp of the game and UNC basketball history.
2. IIRC uncgirl50 said she will be attending UNC next year which means she is smarter than I am since I would have never been admitted.
Well I was serious about that but now that I look at it, it is quite funny. I should have put it more like:
It’s really not Tyler’s fault. The poor guy thinks it is when it’s really the refs. They really need to get a teensy bit better on calling fouls so Tyler doesn’t start thinking something is wrong with him.
Better?
THF: I am so not smarter than you. I am attending UNC next year so I hope that helps my rep. I am hungry for more UNC history. I know alot about Dean Smith (I read his auto-biography), the 1957 National Champioship team (I read another book) and a little about the 1982 team. I am quite uneducated when it comes to other periods in UNC history. I am here to learn and to talk with other UNC fans, not to make anyone mad. Thanks THF for letting me post here.
It is still funny, just because I guarantee you that all the State fans feel like Tyler gets away with murder and it is actually their guys whom the refs hate, and the Wake and Duke and Tech(both of them) and Maryland fans as well…. Funny isn’t bad and sometimes I go back and re-read certain comments and they strike me differently the second time and I think I see better now what you were trying to get across.
The only problem with me is that I am only funny when I’m not trying to be. But I’m glad you see what I’m getting at an you don’t think funny is bad.
I was mostly trying to let that other fellow know that you were not trying to attack him personally, because he seemed to get you and LarryS confused, and I knew you were not attacking him because those of us who post a lot here know that you are pretty light-hearted. What a can of worms!
Thanks. Everyone here has been so great to me, even though I’m the odd one out. (Girl, in highschool etc.) I really thank y’all for accepting me and defending me when I make one of my frequent mistakes.
william,
Earlier, you mentioned that you didn’t see the UNC-BC game in 1994 and I was reminded that you were probably better off for not having seen it. When BC first came into the conference, I remember voicing my displeasure to my son, not only because I was an anti-expansion advocate but because I disliked BC. He asked me what I had against BC and I told him it was because they gave Derrick Phelps a concussion, on a very hard foul, in the second round in ’94. It was the first time my son became aware of my ability to hold grudges.
Here is my list of UNC books to read, basically in order of importance to me, with the first one by Dean Smith. I haven’t put links because THF’s site shuts you down if you try to put in multiple links but most of these can be found at the library and all of them on Amazon:
A Coach’s Life
Going Home Again: Roy Williams, the North Carolina Tar Heels, and a Season to Remember
Blue Blood: Duke-Carolina: Inside the Most Storied Rivalry in College Hoops
Dean’s Domain: The Inside Story of Dean Smith and His College Basketball Empire
More Than a Game: Why North Carolina Basketball Means So Much to So Many
To Hate Like This Is to Be Happy Forever: A Thoroughly Obsessive, Intermittently Uplifting, and Occasionally Unbiased Account of the Duke-North Carolina Basketball Rivalry
The Road to Blue Heaven: An Insider’s Diary of North Carolina’s 2007 Basketball Season
Basketball: Multiple Offense and Defense
I have read: A Coaches Life, To Hate Like This Is to be Happy Forever (best book ever!), Blue Blood and Dean’s Domain. I will get started on those other ones ASAP. Thanks William!
I am a baptized Catholic (and that means I can say whatever I want about BC, right?), but a Northern Catholic school four states away from Maryland does not belong in our conference.
I have no idea why they abandoned all of their Catholic school rivalries with G-town, Villanova and Notre Dame. Well, I do, $$$.
I say, let’s bring in an original Southern Conference member with a great basketball and football tradition, WVU and trade the Big East back BC.
That is already pretty good. The last one is kind of optional but at least shows how complicated some of the stuff that Phog Allen, Clair Bee, Frank McGuire and Dean Smith came up with is. You probably won’t want to read it all the way through but the concepts are good.
I should start some online courses for UNC basketball history. What william gave could pass as a reading list in a college class.
Well I had this whole, go to the library and check out every basketball/UNC book they had thing going on. May I also suggest March to Madness? It has some great NCAA stories in there. Not completley about UNC but still a good read.
THF: Great idea. Those would be alot more fun than those C&E courses I took online the summer after freshman year.