Oh, there was a game?
Strange timing on the redshirt/suspension announcements, almost like they did not want to deal with it beyond tonight. Now it gets wrapped up in the game and on Friday when Roy has his weekly press conference it will be hashed out more. By then it will be three days old so obviously they were looking to deal with it almost as a side story.
As for this game, it was one of those incredible offensive performances but the defense sucked so bad it is hard to be excited about it beyond being happy the Heels won. It is a bit sobering when you understand that had UNC shot their average from beyond the arc they lose this game by one. Giving up 91 points to a bad Maryland team is simply unacceptable. The Terps came in averaging 71 ppg and had not broken 90 points in a game this season until this one.
Of course I don’t really have anything to offer in terms of potential solutions. With Marcus Ginyard now out for the season, we know a top rate perimeter defender is not walking through that door. We know that somehow, some way Danny Green or Wayne Ellington or Ty Lawson or Bobby Frasor will have to step up their defense in such a way as to compensate for the loss. You also have Will Graves gone which introduces all kinds of depth questions.
It is amazing that a team we all had pegged in June as being the prohibitive national title favorite sits before us now still looking to define itself. We are very much at a point where a lot of these players are going to have to reach into the deepest recesses of themselves and muster a level of play probably not seen before, especially on defense. There is a saying: “Whatever does not kill you, only makes you stonger.” I guess we are about to find out if this is true of the 2009 Tar Heels.
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I am frankly surprised that anyone thought that Ginyard was coming back this year. Given his ability and his potential to play professional ball somewhere, it didn’t make much sense for him to come back basically just so he could play in the post-season.
Yes, Carolina has an excellent chance to win it all this year, but from where I stand, they actually don’t seem to have any better chance of winning it all this year than they did in 2007 or 2008, or conceivably in 2010, depending on the recovery of Ginyard, Zeller and the quality of the new recruits, as well as whether Ellington comes back.
Of course, if Ellington can keep shooting like he did tonight, he won’t be back and Carolina won’t need Ginyard, so kudos to Wayne for finally looking like we all knew he could this year.
ftr–I never did.
it might be worth a look at how the 05 team did defensively, from this point on in. that would be about the only thing that would dredge some optimism from me for any title hopes this year.
Agree that the defense was poor which you articulated quite well but the final score is always suspect if we look closely at who was playing when and how many points did Maryland hoist against Moody and company. Not that it matters much but it’s pretty common for Roy to put in the end of the bench and we score maybe two points in two minutes with the opponent scoring ten or sixteen points. If we cut this game off when Lawson and Tyler left what was the margin?
I would like to trademark “the end/last of the bench” given that I hate to call anyone a bench warmer or scrubs – it just doesn’t feel right.
Go Heels!
I think they only scored a few on Moody and the boys. They did not get in until the last minute.
The big test is coming up next week. 50 vs 12. Ellington admitted in his postgame comments that the team is going to have to find a new level. They were having fun tonight, but defense wins.
Roy has never been one to go full throttle for 40 point blowouts. This game was over in the first half and that’s your story. Garbage points against UNC teams always obscure the dominance. They didn’t need to play lights-out defense to win. Hurray for Maryland…you scored 91 points, but gave up 108. Glass is half-full on this one.
As for the depth issues, yes our starters are gonna need to bring it on the defensive end. I think that they can do it. The issue that will not go away, and it seemingly never does for UNC, is that of an opposing point guard who can light it up will get his. I hate it, you hate it, we all hate it, but that’s gonna happen. If the opposing PG gets 25, but the rest of the team get 35-40, I can live with that. My fear is that a big, athletic team like Kansas creeps up on us again. The UConn matchup is a scary one right now, because I think they would have their way with Deon and just double-up on Tyler. We’d need another 16 threes to beat them.
Marcus being out simply means more Danny Green. Bobby needs to play better defensively and Larry needs to establish a defensive presence. Ed is really the only stud in the shed right now. I will still place my faith in the starting five, and it looks like I/we have no choice.
Next year: Ginyard back, with Drew, Strickland, McDonald, and possibly Ellington could be devastating. The frontcourt of Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Zeller, Wears, and John Henson will be incredible. I’m already feeling 2010.
But let’s enjoy this model first. We’ll be fine once the adjustments are made.
It is a bit hard to compare because McCants missed several games in February and then into March and the tournament, and as I recall, our defense suffered more during those games than our offense. We won them all, but really struggled against State and Maryland and Duke, and then against Clemson in the first round of the ACC and against GIT, in the second round, which I believe was his first game back as a starter.
In terms of margin, I think Carolina was up by as much as 24 and it was at least 22 in the last couple of minutes. The referees disallowed a pretty obvious basket and we missed free throws, or we would have gotten to 110.
I think you have to see that the margin did go down to 13 at one point and whenever Carolina did need a steal or a stop, they got it. I am not going to worry about the defense in this one because there were plenty of good steals and blocks, even if the rebounding was a bit lax.
thanks william–I guess where I’m going with that is Roy has done this for a looooong time, and has been around some pretty good minds. it’s easy to forget what a process it was with the 05 team. they had some elements this version doesn’t for sure, but I do believe if he can get these guys to play some clamps D, they could still be special…but only if imo. DF–good points about the KU-like factor–I share your concern, but also your thoughts on next years version.
Actually, Defense never wins games. Only Offense wins games. The best defense can do is to keep the other team from scoring and then, actually it only gets you into overtime, with the score knotted at 0-0.
thanks for that
Yeah, I think we showed that offense can win games tonight.
DeanForever — I share your excitement about the prospects for next year’s team, but my enthusiasm is tempered by knowing Lawson and Hansbrough won’t be there.
I think there is a tendency to take Hansbrough for granted, because he is so consistent and not a flashy player. But make no mistake about it, he is the heart and soul of this team, as he has been since he stepped on the floor as a freshman.
We’ll have loads of talent next year, but it won’t be the same.
Pomeroy still has the defensive efficiency ratings game by game from 2005 and guess what? We weren’t very good down the stretch and in the NCAA tourney on defense. The numbers in the Illinois game were not good at all and the numbers from the Wisconsin game were about the worse we had all year in 2005.
They played good defense against Michigan State in the Semi-final and great defense against Iowa State in the second round. That is it. They had two defensive efforts in their last 12 games where they held the opponents to below 1 point per possession. And the game that was the most difficult of all, the Villanova game, was their third best defensive effort during the tourney. Once again, it was the offense that relatively failed them and made that game close.
But, we all know the narrative in everyone’s head. The 2005 team played increasingly good defense and that is why they won. The reality is that the 2005 team played excellent defense up to the date of Feb. 19, 2005, which was when McCants became ill. After that, they really did not play excellent defense for the most part the remainder of the season, and I see no evidence of any fire that Roy built under them on the defensive end down the stretch, not that he didn’t try, of course. Perhaps, it was difficult to get McCants reintegrated on the defensive end. Whatever the reason, the Tar Heels still managed to win it all and beat an excellent opponent in the Finals.
I know that no one wants to hear this because it doesn’t tie in with the Hoosiers theme of Roy coming in and getting the offensive minded kids to focus on defensive, but the numbers are here and pretty stark. http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=North%20Carolina&y=2005
The numbers from 1993 and 1982 were actually quite similar as well, with the Heels’ offense leading them to victories, not their defense. Nevertheless, I know that we will hear over and over during the next month and a half that defense wins championships, so maybe I am wasting my time on this.
What the hell has happened to Maryland basketball? I mean, there were times tonight when it was obvious they had sub-ACC-caliber talent on the floor. I know Gary’s been in the news recently about comments concerning players that are not on his team, but your program is reaching an embarrassing low point.
About this lock-down defense. How can we play lock-down defense. Did you see some of the fouls Frasor and Drew were called for tonight? Did you also see some of the no-calls on Davis & Hansbrough as they get knocked down trying to score? Again I say, we can not play the kind of defense we see other teams play against us when our guys get called for fouls for just standing next to the other player.
This team was always going to win with offense. That does not mean Roy should not keep hounding them about playing better D but I have not seen poor effort, just poor defense. Letting Maryland put up 91 is a bit silly.
I’m not sure we need to get all crazy about the defense in this game. The previous 5 games, UNC had played pretty well on D, and their defensive rankings moved up significantly from where they were after the WFU game. Then, you have a game where the offense is unconscious, it follows that the defense might take a hit. I don’t think it is something that is foretelling of future bad performances. Personally, I’d rather win a game like this, than like Duke does.
As for the officiating, in my opinion, UNC gets far more calls than most, though the overall level of officiating has been pretty terrible this year.
Maybe you guys are right. It didn’t work for Dick Vermeil in KC, but maybe it will for the Heels. Hope so.
Well, Vermeil’s teams never played D…
I’m not saying UNC doesn’t need to play better D, I just think the D we saw the previous 5 games is more indicative of what we will see going forward. You also have to wonder if the fact that there are no more lingering questions about who is or isn’t coming back will help this team gel as a unit.
The biggest problem last night was our transition D. Maryland shot the ball well, but allowing them to beat us down the court multiple times for easy baskets was inexcusable. That’s what we do to teams, not what they do to us.
Didn’t you guys love Roy’s timeout, where he just stared at them and didn’t say a word and then walked away? I was watching Wayne’s face and he looked like a deer in headlights. Classic.
And I’m not saying “defense wins championships”. I think you need both sides, as obviously do you. I think we’ll see what we’re really capable of against Duke, but like you referenced earlier, I know we’ll see some teams in the tourney that can play both sides well. I agree with you about the current trend with one glaring exception-Deon. He will be exploited & outed quicker than Sarah on the CBS evening news. And I had hoped his offense would counterbalance his defensive liabilities, but so far…)
I’ve seen a lot of comparisons between this team and other UNC teams of the past, but I think the one that is most important is the comparison between this year and last year.
First, the constants:
Hansbrough: Tyler is Tyler, and that is about as big a compliment as there is.
Thompson: Deon has been an enigma, but overall, he is still better this year than he was last.
Ellington: Offense has been less featured, but his overall play has actually improved, and if last night was a preview, than there is no contest.
Lawson: Still prone to mental lapses, but completely healthy and a markedly better player than he was last year.
Green: In all honesty, Danny may be the best all-round player in the ACC.
Okay, so looking at the constants, there is a clear advantage for the 2009 team. Now, let’s look at the variables, and what this really boils down to is:
Ginyard/Stepheson/Thomas versus Davis/Drew/Frasor
I would give the edge to the former based on physical maturity, but I think it is relatively small, as I think there is more overall skill in the latter. You also have to take in to account the fact that Marcus was no where near 100% the last half of last year.
So overall, I still think this is a better team, overall than last year. Now, why is this important? Because through the first 2 weekends of the NCAA tourney last year, UNC was THE cream of the crop. Seriously, no one looked better. Yes, they ran into a buzzsaw in the Final 4, but that same buzzsaw nearly lost to Davidson, so sometimes, “stuff happens.” The important thing to remember is there are no other teams out there the level of the Kansas/Memphis/UCLA teams that we saw last year. In short, UNC is fine.
excellent points CM. I would add that when he wants to be, DG is as good as Marcus on defense. Conversely, I believe Marcus’ upside on offense could be nearly as good as DG’s.
Thanks. I will be very keen on seeing what Marcus brings to the table next year. Would not be surprised to see him run some point with Drew., allowing Strickland to be more of a scorer.
Oh dear, I hate being so behind on things but I see the main topic is defense which I have alot to say about.
Defense this season: Moderatley ok
Defense last night: Crappy
Our main problem was transition defense. I mean Wayne would go down and make a three, the MD would get the ball and score a quick layup with nobody gaurding him. Problem? Yes. With teams like Maryland. Team that take their time shooting, wont be as big of a problem, unless they shoot threes, which we can’t defend at all.
For those of you that say defense doesn’t win games, I have to disagree. For teams like MD who really are not that good offense can win games but when we play better teams we can’t win by pure offensive production. We need defense.
I don’t think that defense necessarily wins or doesn’t win games. We played some of the worst defense last night that we’ve played all year, and yet won handily. Why? Offense. However, if your offense is lacking on a particular night, you need to step up the defense. If a team has awesome defense, but no offense, they aren’t going to get far, just like a team with awesome offense but no defense.
The key is bringing to the table what you need to win each night. The Heels are more than capable (both mentally & physically) of playing good defense. They are also even more capable of playing good offense. As long as they can add enough of one to compliment the other, I’m not too worried. I guess I’d rather have the tools and figure out which ones I need each night to win than to not have the tools at all.
I think the Heels played on heckuva ball game on offense last night. They’re defense still needs a lot of work, expecially defending the fast breaks. That’s what killed them last night(4 times in a row) if I’m not mistaken.
It wasn’t really a suprise to me that Ginyard will not be back this year. What really suprised me was Graves. What happened? Anyway, with that said, our depth is one man short. We’ve been without Ginyard for the whole year. When he did play this year, he didn’t do anything.
What we need to do now is Focus!!! Focus!!! Focus!!!! on DEFENSE!!!!!! If we get better on DEFENSE, we will be unstoppable!!!!! No one will beat us!!!!
An another thing, I’m not worried about the NCAA Tournament right now let alone next year in 2010, Like I’ve said before, we need to take one game at a night and improve from our mistakes and learn from them. When we get to the tournament, we’ll worry about that then but until then, Let’s play Carolina basketball like it should be played!!!!!!!
C. Michael. When you say UNC gets most of the “calls”, you have to be looking at a stat sheet. Yes, we make our share of trips to the line, but we are also one of the more aggressive teams out there getting into the lane and inside. We also have a player who cannot be stopped unless he is banged, and even at that, he doesn’t get “stopped.” Watching last night’s game makes my point, and that game was pretty consistent with all of the others. Look at those garbage fouls that Davis & Frasor racked up. Really, when have we gotten those this year. When is the last time you saw Hansbrough/Davis/Thompson go to the line because a defender touched him? Now, how often do you see us get called for fouls on clean steals and blocks? There have been multiple times in just about every game. How often have you seen clean blocks on our bigs where they go to the line? Not often, I can promise you.
I promise I’ll give it a rest after this, but the reason I’ve been pimping the 3/2 zone is specifically because of Deon (well that and the 2nd half of the KU game last season). I truly hope I’m wrong, but I haven’t seen anything that makes me feel he’s not the breaking link in the man to man.
HeelYeah, that is pretty much how I feel about it. There should always be a certain level of intensity on both sides, but as the game rolls on, you just need to get a feel for what you need to do to get the W.
JB, I’m not saying there haven’t been a lot of calls go against UNC, but I just don’t think it is disproportionate. For the history of sports, fans have always felt that their team gets the short end of the officiating stick. Go to any opposing team’s site after a UNC game and you will see just as many, if not more threads about their team not getting any calls. For the season, UNC has had 3 players foul out while their opponents have had 13. That is stark, regardless of style of play.
One other thought on the defense and the NCAA Tourney. The NCAA has its officials call tournament games much tighter, and you don’t have the same group of officials working all your games like you do during conference play. I think this leads to a couple of things for Carolina: 1)More FTA for Tyler, and 2)Less physical play on defense. I think both of those points will be on our favor. Our defense is predicated on speed and anticipation, not brute force/lock down type of mentality.
In short, our style works in the NCAAs, which the Pomeroy ratings bear out, especially for 2005. With that said, we only go as far as our starting 5+Davis takes us. Right now, I could beat Bobby in a game of HORSE, no problem.
I think that most of the regulars here at THF are pretty sophisticated. Obviously no one is saying defense doesn’t matter or that Carolina does not need to improve on defense. A lot of the platitudes are due to the old time announcers who never change their schtich.
Basketball (and maybe soccer) are much less clearly defined into offensive and defensive aspects than football or baseball. There is an organic integrity between the two in basketball. Two famous NBA teams from the 60′s and the 70′s, Russell’s Celtics and Frazier’s Knicks were known for their great defense, but they were also known for their fastbreaking style and great shooters and scorers like Bill Sharman, Sam Jones, Jerry Lucas, Earl Monroe and Bill Bradley.
Defense and the break started the offense for these great NBA teams, which is how it often works best for Carolina, going all the way back to Dean Smith’s first great teams from the 60′s and 70′s who were usually among the highest scoring teams in the country.
One thing that Pomeroy has suggested, but not implemented, perhaps because it is not predictive, is whether stats should be counted differently during blow-outs, or at least some break-out should be made.
Except for the Notre Dame game, Carolina has now had its best two offensive games of the year by far. Is it reasonable that the defensive numbers would lag, or should they have remained the same as well? I do think that at times, paradoxically, by giving up easy baskets, UNC takes the other team out of their game, turns the game into a running game and may actually benefit from giving up some lay-ups. This is in opposition to the BC game, where we didn’t give up many lay-ups or easy baskets in transition and accordingly, could never get the game to the pace we needed.
The other thing that seems to be a constant is that UNC has problems when its opponents hit over 1/3 of their three pointers. In most of the games that Carolina has lost the last two years, they have gotten torched at the three point line, if not the entire game, at least in the first half.
BC was 7-16 from the three point line in our loss to them. Duke was 13-29 from the three point line when they beat us last year. Kansas made 4-6 three-pointers in the first half against Carolina and hit three of them in one three minute span. Wake Forest was 6-14 against us, for an outstanding 43%.
Obviously, no team does particularly well when they give up a lot of three’s, but it seems as though UNC might do better in games like the ones this week, where over all we are not great on defense, but where we do defend the three well. UNC was excellent defending the three in both games against State and Maryland, particularly in the first half, when the games were still at risk, so maybe we should take some of the poor points per possession stats with a grain of salt.
Man…we need to really get to work.
(That’s basically all I can say being that
I don’t know when I last saw this team play
since they’ve not been on TV here in Vegas
much this season!)
Thank goodness I have THF to keep me in the
know!