That was the last mulligan.
- First and foremost, Ty Lawson believes he will be ready to by the start of the NCAA Tournament. ACC Now reported that the toe was neither swollen or discolored following an ice treament after the game. I’d say that bodes well for this coming Thursday when UNC is expected to start their tournament run in Greensboro.
- Danny Green is in a slump. That is all it is. The prescription for Green is get into the gym and shoot to break out of it. I also think this being Green’s senior season he is not going to go quietly so come down off the ledge Caulton, Green will be back if for no other reason than preventing thousands of UNC fans from having debilitating flashbacks of Shammond Williams.
- Roy Williams clearly decided the let it ride at the end of the game opting to not call a timeout to set a play to get the game tying three. Bobby Frasor said the set they ran would have likely been the same and in many respects Roy is just fine getting out of Atlanta without injuries.
- UNC should be locked into a #1 seed. There is some debate whether they would be the overall #1 seed. I think Louisville might end there since they won both the Big East regular season and tournament titles. The Heels #1 seed resume is good. UNC has lost four games by a total of 16 points including three point margins against Wake Forest, Maryland and Florida State. The Heels four losses have also come against likely NCAA Tournament teams all in the top 60 of the RPI. In other words there are no bad losses and what happened against Florida State can be discounted given Ty Lawson was out and UNC only lost by three. And don’t listen to the moronic school of thought out there that Duke will get a #1 seed even over UNC if they win the ACC Tournament. UNC has two wins over Duke and Duke has five losses, including a 27 point loss on the road at Clemson and the loss at Michigan. The Blue Devils are a #2 at best.
- The ACC should get seven teams into the NCAA Tournament. UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Boston College and Maryland.
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I agree Danny is just in a slump. He will come through for us when it counts. Also, I think those 7 teams should be in NCAAT. Sometimes they do stupid things and MD could be left out. What a shame if that happens. I guess we will drag ourselves to the Dome to watch those 2 teams that are left. What a bad taste I have in my mouth….hurry up Thursday.
I do not have a particularly optimistic turn of mind, but I now believe that Carolina will get the No. 1 overall seed. This is the thinking:
The top five teams in order coming into the weekend were UNC, Pitt, Memphis, UConn and Louisville.
Since both Pitt and UConn lost (Pitt losing big to a nobody), neither will move ahead of us. So the contenders are Memphis and Louisville.
The reason Memphis won’t pass us for the overall No. 1 is that nobody really thinks that they ARE No. 1. If we played their conference schedule, we would be undefeated. All four of our losses have come to ACC teams, each of which is stronger than any team in Memphis’s conference (except of course Memphis).
Louisville presents more of a threat, but we should edge them out. The case for them is not inconsiderable; as THF points out, they were both the regular season and tournament champions in the toughest conference in the country. They are also playing really well right now, and they would be something of the “glamour” pick.
But the argument for us is slightly better. Coming in, we were ranked first and Louisville fifth. It would be a big jump — bigger than I have seen this season — for the fifth-ranked team to forge ahead of the first-ranked team on the sole basis of a close loss by the first-ranked to to a very good conference rival. Moreover, Louisville was lucky; they won their tournament without having to face either of their conference’s best teams. Indeed, they won the championship game by defeating a team that in the previous two days had played for 8000 minutes. And we have one fewer loss than Louisville.
When you add to this the fact that we were playing without our All America point guard and nearly won anyway, and that (for good reason) memories linger of when we were everyone’s pre-season pick as No. 1, I think we come out slightly ahead with the selection committee. Therefore, we should get the overall No. 1 seed, and be bracketed with the weakest of the No. 2′s, which right now I would have to say is none other than……….Dook!!
UNC was the #2 overall in 2005.
One more thought. After having been probably the commenter least happy about holding Lawson out of the ACCT, I would hold him out of Thursday’s game against the No. 16 seed, whoever that turns out to be.
The difference is that there was little realistic chance we would win the ACCT without him, while now there is no realistic chance we will lose Thursday’s game whether he plays or not.
THF — I believe that was because Illinois, the No. 1 overall, came in with a 30-1 record, their sole loss having come on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by some Ohio State player. But Louisville has five losses.
RATH – If the docs, trainers and Lawson agree he is ready to play on Thursday would you still sit him?
I most likely would. I am just precautious like that. We are in deep mess if he is needed for that game anyway.
C. Michael, you make a good case for the UNC overall number 1. Those would be my arguments as well if I had a chance to make my case with the selections committee. I guess no matter how you look at it, the other teams have a solid ground plea as well, but ours is pretty compelling.
One of the downsides to not playing him at least some on Thursday is if he waits until Sat., he will not have played in 13 days and may not be as effective in a tough 8/9 game. The upside is not knowing how his toe might react to playing in a game (swelling, etc.) and having him be worse for the Sat. game. I say play him a little Sat. to give him a feel for competition, and certainly if we have a freaky close game. He could play if they want him to. (Heck, he could have played Sat. with a local pain killer, but that wasn’t absolutely necessary because it wasn’t a one and done, and it had a much bigger potential downside)
Lunardi’s latest bracket shows three pods in Minneapolis and only one pod in Greensboro. Don’t we think dook will play in Greensboro?
JBowling — I think you mistook me for C.Michael, a high compliment indeed.
thewizard50 — No, I would not. If the situation is as you describe it, with no medical downsides, then the advantages of getting him back in the flow outweigh the advantages of more rest. But I would give Drew and Frasor plenty of minutes, because I have no objection to “practice” time when there is no realistic possibility of losing the game.
Rath, I am sorry. That was an excellent point you made, and I wish you were our rep. carrying these words to the ncaa selections committee.
“One more thought. After having been probably the commenter least happy about holding Lawson out of the ACCT, I would hold him out of Thursday’s game against the No. 16 seed, whoever that turns out to be.”
If Lawson’s toe is still hurting this week and Lawson could be benfitted by playing 5 games instead of 6, I would agree. Unfortunately, we only have 3 weeks left in the season and the team needs to get back in its normal groove, which really starts with the game on Thursday or Friday.
The bottom line is that if Ty needs to be managed so carefully at the point in the season, we are in trouble. Let’s hope that’s not the case.
i dont think being “overall” number 1 matters a bit. its all about matchups. i want to see who the 8-9 is in our region, because there are some tough athletic teams out there.
if Ty is ready, thats great. if he’s not 100%, maybe play him a few minutes per half to get him some game action. surely, we can beat a 16 without him. they’re bound to ck his toe at halftime, anyway.
JBowling — No problem at all. As I say, it’s a compliment to be confused with C.Michael. Now if I could just get someone to confuse me with Tyler Hansbrough…….
One day, JUST ONE FREAKIN’ DAY, I would like to show up with his arms and shoulders.
i doubt i’ll even watch the ACC final today, unless i hear Dook is losing. they’ll know either way, that they didnt beat the best team.
adam lucas wrote that danny was in a funk all weekend shooting-wise. thats all well and good, but someone needs to shake him sometimes and tell him to not exhibit that “funk” 5 seconds into a shot clock.
i thought every guy out there yesterday took their game up a notch except danny. if they all continue to play that hard, i like our chances.
i can only imagine how strong Tyler is going to be around the hoop these last 6 games, judging by his effort in the ACCT.
oh, and i love the sports media. the AP game summary, for one, described the loss to FSU as “stunning”. uh…no.
thewizard50 — No, Dook is playing in Elbowsboro, the same place they always play.
#1 overall seed or not, UNC gets seeded nicely. My hope is to not get screwed on a strong # 2 showing up in the same region, or a seemingly purposeful 8/9 match-up.
Memphis deserves a # 2, in Midwest or East maybe. # 2 in the South region just seems unfair, as the regional finals are in Memphis. Memphis would not be undefeated in Big East, ACC or Big 10 play; what’s the outcome if they played any of Pitt, Uconn, Duke, UNC, or Mich State in a home/home ?
Lawson: maybe a 2nd half showing in the opening round? Like most say, maybe he’s not needed; but a little pre-practice if the lead is comfortable.
Heel To The End — Correct on all points. I think Green will be OK. We’ve all seen what he can do.
As for the AP…………it’s been a long way down. I won’t even read them for the news anymore.
I’m going to sound like a woe is us but every year it seems we have the toughest bracket hands down.
“oh, and i love the sports media. the AP game summary, for one, described the loss to FSU as “stunning”. uh…no.”
Good point, HTTE. The media and outsiders have a way of not being very observant, although there are a lot of games and teams to keep up with. Anyone who has closely followed the ACC and knows how big and athletic FSU is, with one of the 2 or 3 best players in the conference who is at the top of his game, knows this game was a toss up, especially considering Ty’s absence.
keithunc — The thing that would really get my goat is to be bracketed with UConn as our No. 2, but it might well happen. The press would love it. These are the two teams that most people thought for most of the season were the top two, so if they can be matched, it’s good for the ratings.
Yuuuuch.
Rath -
I feel quite certain UConn will be #2 seed in the East. I hope we are put in the South or even the West.
The only time I HATE living in Florida is when a Florida team wins (correction scores more points) over our Heels. I just immediately threw out the sports section today. If Carolina had won it would have been 15 words hidden in back of the sports section but today it was on the front page of the entire thing. It sometimes hurts to care so much. GO HEELS!
Wizard — The South sounds good. I’ve forgotten: Does the No. 1 in the South play its first two games in Greensboro? If so, that’s the place for us.
I we are a #1 seed, I think we play our first round games in Greensboro regardless of what region we are in.
I just realized the NCAA tourney starts on my birthday. Happy Birthday to me!
About Danny: I love him to death. Sometimes players get into these funks and I understand that. But now of all times to get into a funk. *sigh* I’m positive he will break out of this but let’s hope it’s soon.
About Ty: He should be held out for 1st game. No question. As much rest as possible is needed for him to be 100%. Who knows, maybe we should sit him out 2nd game too if we’re positive we can scrape out a win. I’m glad to hear he’s feeling better, but you can never be too careful.
About the #1 seed: We should be the overall #1, but I’m not sure if I want us to be. Last year we had the overall #1 but we had one of the most difficult brackets. Does it matter? Maybe not. Is it just me or do always get a super-hard bracket?
About our #2: Let’s hope and pray it’s not UConn. That’s all I’m saying.
LarryS — Excellent. Thanks.
One last thing, I have been very impressed with Tyler’s play. He broke the career rebounding record yesterday. The only thing I could ask of him now is that we get married.
Rath – South bracket should play in Greensboro but Lunardi’s bracket shows Minneapolis along with two other pods there. I has to be a typo.
The pod system is set up where the #1 seeds, and the respective seeds that go with a #1 ( 1/16 and 8/9) will go to a subregional site that is closest to their natural fan base so as to attract more participation at the event and reduce travel distance for fans. It has its critics, but it’s been in place for several years now so it doesn’t appear it’s going to change. What it means for us is, if we are a #1 seed, we will always go Greensboro, or wherever the closest subregional is to us.
[...] he’ll play in NCAAs “, coming from the Fayetteville Observer. Tar Heel Fan gives us the “Odds and Ends: Selection Sunday Edition”, while TarEye/BuckHeel gives us his “Post-Game Blackboard: Seminoles drop Heels 73-70″, [...]
it doesnt matter how good i think UNC is a particular year, when the brackets come out, they always look scary. there’s a lot of good teams out there.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/andy_glockner/bracket/index.html?bcnn=yes
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
Texas as our 8 in Lunardi’s, 9 in the SI one. is there a better 11-loss team? Syracuse, on a roll, as the 4. both teams with great guards.
clemson went from a 4 to a 5 to a 6 and now back to 5. Wake never dropped off the 3 with the ACCT loss.
looks like Lunardi put the strongest 2, UConn, with the weakest 1, Memphis. i think thats generally how it goes.
SI has Dook in our region. Bleah to that!
Lunardi is showing Duke going to the Greensboro subregional also, as a #2. The same philosophy of the best teams going to their natural subregional (#1′s always get priority), for the same reasoning as described in previous post, would put Duke in Greensboro. However, as others have posted here previously, there have been problems when Duke and UNC have been in the same subregional with UNC fans (maybe Duke fans doing the same, but UNC fans seem to show up in bigger numbers) rooting against Duke. So the conventional wisdom is the NCAA Committee will likely not put them in the same subregional so as to avoid a “Hatfields and McCoys” effect, in spite of the fact that some bracketologists may have them routed that way. We’ll see.
It was no shock to me either Larry. I am pretty proud of our guys and the effort they gave this tournament. With a 100 percent Lawson, I am very confident going into this tournament.
Also, it is becoming less disapointing to me to not win it all. Final 4′s are a big accomplishment, and we have numerous ones. We are now in a position to where, hey, if we don’t win it all this year, our prospects for winning it all next year are good as well. This is something we should take pride in, because we are now very relevant year in and year out to take it all, similar to our chances in the 80′s and early 90′s. Well, the whole 90′s decade as well.
Rath, I hear ya. I lift weights, eat a high calorie diet, and take testosterone, and I still can’t get my physique anywhere near what Tyler’s is. Maybe I should start by pushing Miatas and MG’s around in the parking lot, and then hopefully I can graduate to SUV’s like Tyler.
I couldn’t agree more, JB. As I’ve said many times, I’ll be disappointed if we don’t cut down the nets, but I will not consider it a failure. It is hard, with a capital H, to win it all. Short of the title, we’re left with watching superb teams, year after year, the joy of seeing new stars come into the system, and, lately, witnessing one of the best players of all-time in Hansbrough. I mean, we’ve got it good .
and most importantly, we arent Dookies.
since my above comment, with links to the espn and SI brackets hasnt officially posted, i assume because it HAS links, i’ll paste the rest so it fits in the convo!
it doesnt matter how good i think UNC is a particular year, when the brackets come out, they always look scary. there’s a lot of good teams out there.
Texas as our 8 in Lunardi’s, 9 in the SI one. is there a better 11-loss team? Syracuse, on a roll, as the 4. both teams with great guards.
clemson went from a 4 to a 5 to a 6 and now back to 5. Wake never dropped off the 3 with the ACCT loss.
looks like Lunardi put the strongest 2, UConn, with the weakest 1, Memphis. i think thats generally how it goes.
SI has Dook in our region. Bleah to that!
I was soooo surprised yesterday to see Dickie V calling the Dook game.
Keith, you can’t be serious baby! Look at the diaper dandies both teams have, such elite colleges with the chance to compete with each other once again. This is the definition of college athletics with a capital C baby! They’ll be warming up the buses in Chapel Hill.
Yeah Keith, I can do without hearing Vitale do another Dook game for the rest of my life. Thing is, I really don’t dislike him, but having to sit through Duke playing and him doing color on it is much more than I am capable of handling.
HTTE, it looks like Lunardi sort of shafted #1 Pitt by putting them in the Dayton subregional instead of Philly, and putting #2 UConn in Philly. I’m trying to figure his rationale behind that. This is going to be a highly interesting Selection Sunday.
Look at how many games we have won the past two years, having Q, then Danny becoming the all-time winningest players in UNC history. Now look at the record books, Kansas is still only a few games behind us. Can we keep this pace up? I mean, we have to be nearly perfect in our strong conference to stay ahead of a good, but not great, year in and year out Kansas (in their decent but not great conference).
Point is, Kansas may be in the best position to overtake that number 1 wins position. Kentucky is not what they once were, and some teams in their conference are relative now.
Kansas, on the other hand, has to deal with a good team like Texas one year, and a good team like Oklahoma the next, but from top to bottom, they can get their number of wins nearly every year.
We still have the best chance to overtake Kentucky in the next few years, if not sooner, but Kansas is in a good position to overtake us over the next 5 or 6.
I think if things break the right way UNC could potentially pass Kentucky next year, perhaps early 2010. Especially if UK decides to start again with another coaching direction, and if they do not more the better.
I’d agree on the Kansas points that you mention. Roy and the coach staff keeping the pressure on snagging top-10 recruits is best means to beat them back.
Heel to the End, don’t worry about Duke being in Carolina’s region. The NCAA’s bracketing rules prohibit it. The top three teams from a conference must be placed in different regions.
^thats not technically true. they just can’t meet til a certain round.
Well SFA takes it’s first ever trip to the tourney. Yay.
It is true, Heel to the End. Google for “ncaa principles and procedures” and check out the PDF file on the NCAA’s website. The rule you mentioned is in there, but it’s not the only one. This is a quote from section III of the document: “Each of the first three teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions.”
thats a good one, conq. i wonder if that means the SI guy made a big mistake.
shocking!
just looked at lunardis brackets.if it stays that way i really like our chances with mich st. as our two seed.cant say i believe memphis as a one but that should be intresting as they have uconn in their half.how good would memphis look then?