At first glance I think this is a good draw for the Heels.
UNC draws Big South champion Radford in the first round. After that the Heels are looking at the winner #8 LSU vs #9 Butler. LSU is the highest seeded SEC team and Butler is a mid-major who was less than impressive at times. Assuming Ty Lawson is ready to go and Danny Green snaps out of whatever funk he is in, I expect the Heels to advance out of Greensboro.
After that the Heels will likely get #4 Gonzaga who will be tough but that is also a revenge game for this group of Tar Heels having lost to the Bulldogs in the Preseason NIT two years ago. I do not expect Illinois to give Gonzaga much trouble. In fact I am not sure Illinois makes it past Western Kentucky.
On the bottom of the bracket, UNC got Okalahoma as a #2 seed which could prove intersting since I and most of the readers at THF think the Sooners are overrated. There is a good chance #7 seeded Clemson could end up taking Oklahoma out in the 2nd round assuming the Clemson team that beat Duke makes an appearance. Syracuse is the #3 seed and undoubtedly riding a wagon of hype coming off of their Big East Tournament run. Part of me thinks Syracuse will collapse early because of the Big East Tournament drain. At the same time I am not interested in playing the Orangmen since UNC does not have a good history in the head-to-head.
The other notable name in the South is Herb Sendek’s Arizona St. The possibility of the former Wolfpack coach facing UNC is out there but it would have to be the regional final and give the local media around here a chance to talk NCSU with Sendek since he refuses to return their calls.
The rest of the ACC made out decently. Duke was seeded #2 in the East behind Pitt. Duke will also be in Greensboro which will be more of a road game given the number of UNC fans that will be there. Duke’s path includes Texas and Villanova as possible oppoenents or Minnesota(coached by Tubby Smith) and UCLA if some upsets occur. Florida State is the #5 seed in the East and if they play like they did versus UNC could land a date with Pitt in the Sweet Sixteen. Boston College ended up as a #7 seed which strikes me as a little high. They also get to play Pac-10 tournament champion USC. If the Eagles can slide by and data with Michigan State is ripe for an upset. If BC can beat Duke and UNC, it can beat the Spartans. The last ACC team in was Maryland as the tenth seed in the West. I do not expect them to go far but at least we get spared Gary Williams talking about tournament expansion.
In the end it matters not who is opponent. The Heels have a job to do and the talent to accomplish the task. Time to get to work.
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Funny because I think Gonzaga is the most likely team to beat the Heels in this region, but we also have the revenge factor in our favor because the rosters are so similar from that November 2006 game. I really hope Lawson is healthy.
The third #1 seed was an absolute joke; how can UNC be number one in the country, yet be ranked behind Louisville and an overrated Pitt team that chokes whenever they’re ranked number one?
I’m calling on Siena right now to beat Ohio State, and Siena can give Louisville fits. That Siena team shouldn’t be taken lightly at all. In the South region, I think the toughest matchup would be LSU. If LSU advances past Butler, and if UNC can beat LSU, then I see no reason whatsoever that UNC can’t beat Oklahoma or any other team at the bottom of the bracket.
I am worried about LSU. They’re a strong team. Keep Ty out till then so then he can healthy against LSU.
If burn-out is not in your college hoops vernacular, ESPN Classic is running their instant classic on now. Just started, the marathon Uconn / Syracuse game from Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Unless LSU has a smaller, quicker team that’s the only potential concern I would have. Can’t speak to that just yet though; Trent Johnson does seem like a capable coach.
Selection Show !
ESPN Bracket Show!
Brain Overload!
Brain Overload!
No real surprises. Memphis at #2 is understandable and at least they will be on track to play UConn, which should settle any dispute about who should have gotten what. UNC did fine at third overall #1 and has a decent bracket. Possible “Curse of the Analysts” alert in that 4 of 5 ESPN analysts picked UNC to win it all. (Digger picked Pitt) Duke on track to play Pitt. I love it, but they’ve got to get through Villanova first. This should be an extra fun tournament and I just hope the ACC represents itself well, maybe with one notable exception, if you know what I mean.
Take care of your toe Ty, we need you man!
Ty’s injury reminds me of a joke I used to tell my son when he was a little boy.
Who do you call when an elephant has a hangnail?
A toe truck.
GO HEELS!
LSU’s losses to date:
Texas A&M by 11
Utah by 30
Alabama by 6
Xavier by 10
Vanderbilt by 8
Auburn by 4
Mississippi by 10
Close wins to date:
McNeese St. by 3
UL-Lafayette by 2
Tennessee by 6
Mississippi St. by 3 (2 OT)
Arkansas by 3
Kentucky by 3
What does this mean? I have no clue. What do y’all think?
My Big 12/ACC potential matchup analysis:
Oklahoma has T. Griffen (who isn’t much of an offensive threat normally), Willie Warren (who is a great point guard, but still, he’s a freshman…) and a really great forward in B. Griffen. North Carolina has /four/ (I’d say decent as a median, but, ha, we all know I would be understating) great big men plus Ellington, Green, and of course, Lawson. If we get Griffin out of rythm, the game will be relatively easy, in my opinion. Too many weapons. (I may be biased…but hey.)
I’m looking at Duke getting beaten bad by Texas. Texas has to many good quality big men, and a great backcourt. Dexter Pittman, Damien James, some white guy I cannot remember the name of (whose on again/off again) are all really good. Then you have A.J Abrams (who I must say, is one of my favorite players in the country) that is amazing from outside. And their backup (he could be starting now…) pointguard is good. And plus, I just want to see Duke lose…:D
We all want to see dook lose.
Best team in a marginal to average power conference? Amazing the SEC only got 3 teams in, including the unsuspected Miss State as champs.
I think it implies that UNC should win, assuming that LSU > Butler.
Good draw for the Heels. LSU’s athleticism or Butler’s style could present a problem, but we’ll advance. Gonzaga would be a very interesting match-up in the Sweet 16, since they’re maybe one of the few teams in the nation that can match our athleticism at all five positions. I think we have a little more than they do, but that game would be in the 80s or 90s.
I can’t wait for Thursday. I think the Texas-Minnesota winner can take down Dook. Both have the size to give Dook fits and good enough defense to shut down the Devils’ perimeter attack.
I like that idea TXT! But what if Butler wins? Could they be a threat?
I put Clemson in my bracket taking down Oklahoma, their whole conference is suspect but Kansas gets it a little easier than the Boomer Sooners. It’s tough this year as there are so many teams that play without consistency, “the Clemson that destroyed Duke or the Wake Forest that folded to GT”, take your pick – same thing all over the place. The Blake versus Tyler game would certainly earn some $$$ for CBS. Looking forward to finding a bracket with game times listed (that’s a hint or request for this information).
I do like our bracket and think we will see some quality basketball in Greensboro and of course we get to make round 1 and/or 2 an away game for Duke based on the number of Tar Heel fans I expect to see in the stands.
Go Heels!
I don’t think the KenPom ratings are everything, but I think they have some value. According to these ratings, Gonzaga is the fifth best team in the country, and we are second.
2 North Carolina (28-4)
Offensive Efficiency 123.8 (pp 100 possessions) – #1
Defensive Efficiency 92.2 (pp 100 possessions) – #35
5 Gonzaga (26-5)
Offensive Efficiency 118.0 (pp 100 possessions)- #6
Defensive Efficiency 88.4 (pp 100 possessions) – #9
The top 10 teams according to KenPom are:
Memphis
North Carolina
Connecticut
Louisville
Gonzaga
Pittsburgh
Duke
West Virginia
UCLA
Missouri
http://kenpom.com/stats.php
So, under these ratings, Gonzaga is the best team we would play this year so far. Gonzaga’s only loss in 2009 was to Memphis.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/schedule?teamId=2250
Basically, I think we are going to have a final four type matchup on the first game of the second weekend. We can win, but we will need our absolute best game.
Neither LSU or Butler played an exceptionally tough non-conference schedule, which seems kinda rare for Butler. LSU played a few nobodies and was drilled by Utah (seeded # 5 in the midwest). As THF mentioned though, it matters little now; play the team in front of you, no matter how superior our team may be deemed.
Assuming Texas can win, I don’t see them beating anyone “badly”. Duke must have an off-night to lose; Atcherly is the player you couldn’t name I think. Texas size could definitely give the devils some issues.
I have the Heels playing Pitt in the Final Four and UConn in the title game. Anyone else?
Wake/Memphis Pitt/UNC
Heels over Memphis
my son’s first gig–whaddaya think?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn1q8XDjPhs
Wow! They are fantastic! Much better than my band was.
I doubt that uncgirl, but thanks!
Texas is a year-long under-performer and will lose to Dook.
I saw Gonzaga play and was mightily unimpressed. I didn’t think they’re either athletic or quick. Their center is big and good; that’s about it. I would not expect a particularly close game. They get a lot of attention because of George Mason Syndrome, nothing else.
Griffin is a terrific player but it takes five. We have five, they don’t.
The game will be at 2:50pm Thurs. I hope I can get another sick day.
“I saw Gonzaga play and was mightily unimpressed. I didn’t think they’re either athletic or quick. Their center is big and good; that’s about it. I would not expect a particularly close game. They get a lot of attention because of George Mason Syndrome, nothing else.”
Washington State was the KenPom #10 team last year. Let’s hope for the same result.
Are you kidding? 2:50? Another day to sneak my radio into pre-calc. Are they trying to get me in trouble? Pre-game starts at 1:50 so thats another hour. How am I supposed to stuff my radio up my sleeve in the middle of pre-clac?
52bgJ, believe it.
Big Game — Is your kid the one on the left, in the middle, or on the right?
the scrawny one- singing & playing lead–he also bleeds light blue
You raise your kids right, 52bgJ.
@uncgirl50 – Go watch “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” for some great tips on how to play sick
The tough part about the entire bracket, and Gonzaga/Syracuse in our bracket and lots of teams in Dook’s (Texas, UCLA, FSU, Xavier) fall into this area of ‘we should be really good, but we’ve played really inconsistent this season.’ Of course, Arizona did make a run in 1997 (ouch) as a four seed. I can see teams like Wake, Mich. State, Syracuse, Oklahoma and Mizzou into this group. All top 4 seeds. capable of a Final Four run, but haven’t shown the consistency to actually do it.
Gracias THIM. I shall do that.
Everyone should watch Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. A classic.
Dose anyone know for sure what time the heels will play on thursday
2:50pm
Thankyou
TarHeelInMinny: Luckily we don’t need consistency per se from those teams. They only need to beat Duke once… any one of them, take your pick!
Here’s the link to the NCAA’s PDF which now inlcudes time:
http://www.ncaa.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/ncaa/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2009mbkbracketdivision1
Enjoy, Go Heels!
Thanks for the link BadBadLeroy!!!
HeelYeah, Matthew Broderick did a good job in that movie, and it was the second one I have ever seen him in. The first one was War Games, I believe, which came out a few years earlier. And I wish I had the powers to do what he did in that movie.
Carolina hater Jeff Goodman picks Gonzaga to beat us to win the South Region, adding to my confidence that it won’t.
We have lost some games this year we shouldn’t have, that’s for sure. The self-styled experts like Goodman never fail to lead their stories with a recounting of every one of them, as if the 28 wins count for zilch.
Not one time this year has any writer or coach voted for Gonzaga ahead of us. But we now discover that Gonzaga is the second coming of Lew Alcindor’s UCLA, only they’ve been kept a secret by the East Coast Media Conspiracy.
What baloney.
Of course the talk will turn to match-ups, which will supposedly be our undoing. But just which match-up will launch the fatal blow remains behind the curtain. At the post? They’ve got somebody stronger and tougher than TH? Really?
At point guard? They’ve got somebody faster and more talented than Lawson? Who would that be?
The whole thing is a concoction. If I were a betting man, I’d give Jeff Goodman a call right now.
I like your confidence rat. gonzagas best players (pg – pargo, sf – bould,n, and c – hytefelt), however, are the same players that were on their nov. 06 team that gave us matchup problems and beat us. I am fairly sure roy’s motivation speech will be a reminder of that game, assuming they make it to that point.
Gonzaga has a fairly experienced team, a very good big man, a good coach, and some lofty ratings (including efficiency). They won some nice NC games in Nov. and played UConn very close (Thabeet played 19 min and fouled out).. But they are 0-2 against Top 25 teams and got creamed by Memphis on their home floor in Feb. Their string of conf. wins has come against a bunch of teams that are very modest to poor. I don’t think they are quite ready for prime time.
What happened to the Carolina team that we saw before January? When they walked on the court I had no doubt they would win. And win they did. Wasn’t even close.
I understand the ACC schedule is a substantial upgrade in competition, but I haven’t seen the confidence that the pre 2009 team had in quite some time. Did losing to boston college change this team for the season? I guess it did.
Don’t get me wrong, losing only 4 games so far is very good and that record is something to be proud of. But every game now is up for grabs it seems. I can see the possibility of us taking an early exit this year with a possibly embarrassing loss to a less talented team.
I’ve been watching and rooting for Carolina since 6th grade (late 60′s) and I hope I’m wrong. I have never given up on them, and I’m not now, but I just can’t put my finger on what is going on with this team in the second half of the season.
If Lawson can come back I don’t see him at 100%, which many have said was our problem in last year’s finals. We have to find a way to win without him, or at least with him at 80%. And I just don’t see it happening.
Alrighty, set me straight guys and give me some reasons I’m wrong……I’d love to get that warm cozy feeling I had in December.
Another thing regarding Gonzaga is the fact that they have worked hard at putting together a strong NC schedule that benefits their SOS and RPI, and have done well outside of conference. They’re weak conf. and strong non-conf SOS, though, is just the opposite of ours. If a team is good it doesn’t matter if they play in a relatively weak conference, they are going to succeed out side of it.
But I also think tough conference play, in a very good conference, gives teams the edge come March. So from this point of view, Gonzaga hasn’t really been tested but once since early Jan., and they failed pretty badly, albeit against a good Memphis team. Gonzaga will probably be a popular choice for good reasons but I think they are still a bit of a wild card.
According to the Tar Heels Today publication, Deon has a nagging ankle problem. Apparently, the injury has been around for a while, but no one has mentioned it previously.
he’s been playing with a little more fire lately, so Yay, ankle tweak!
Other people may have different takes on the subject, Wilf, but to me the difference is conference play. And I think that is a very big difference. True, we had very nice wins over Notre Dame and MSU before the holidays, and looked like we were breezing. But Notre Dame was probably over rated and MSU had not nearly begun to gel. Nonetheless, they were impressive wins. Second half of the year, losing Will and finally knowing the determination of Marcus, even though he hadn’t played, were minor, though likely affecting, distractions. But conference play is a different animal, especially the way teams competed this year. And we all know that fortunes rise and fall literally overnight in college basketball.
Maybe we were’nt quite as good as we thought. I really never thought the lofty, pre-Jan. accolades were really appropriate. Too much basketball left to be played. And when teams circle you on their calendar each week it’s a real battle. I think we’ve had a pretty normal and pretty successful second half considering. Apparently others do too. 4 of the 5 ESPN analysts are still picking us as the favorite to win it all. That doesn’t mean we will but it means we are still highly regarded. As for confidence, that’s hard for me to tell, but I think the kids still seem pretty confident.
When it comes down to it, this is a good squad that scores a lot of points, but doesn’t have a lockdown defense. Because the defense is not fantastic, we will not win against quality teams when we have an off shooting night. The days of Wayne and Danny going 2-10 have to end, or this season is going to be over in a hurry. We just need to be hot for 5 straight games.
I heard them ask last night on wbtv sports if Will Graves would play this weekend. What up with that?
TY TOE ALERT
On the Dan Patrick Show, Roy said that Lawson is not completely healthy and that if he doesn’t practice half the day tomorrow and the full practice on Wednesday then he is not playing Thursday.
Some random thoughts:
*Louisville deserves the overall #1. They were the Big East RS and tourney champs, even if those come with an asterisk: The Cards only played UConn and Pitt once each, splitting with them, and did not face either in the BET.
*I don’t necessarily understand why Pitt was the overall #2 over UNC. Comparing the two “bodies of work”, Pitt beat UConn twice, we beat Duke twice. All four of our losses were to tourney teams, one of Pitt’s was not. We won the ACC regular season, they won neither the RS or BET. But I’m not splitting hairs.
*Interesting matchups for UNC in Greensboro – Radford, with a 6-11 kid, then the Butler/LSU winner. My issue with that is that Butler and LSU were both regular-season champs of multiple-bid conferences. Both were ranked in the top 20 heading into their respective tourneys. Compare this to UConn’s potential game with BYU or bubble team Texas A&M, or even Duke’s 2nd rounder with underachieving Texas or bubble team Minnesota.
*If the Heels survive that, the regionals are filled with the kind of spunky three-point bombers that can give UNC fits. Gonzaga is scary, but the allure of them being an Elite Eight Cinderella is gone. Still, they may not get by the WKU (who scares me)/Illinois winner. I don’t worry about Oklahoma or Clemson (both of whom I think are done), but if Syracue rides it that far, UNC had better learn how to shoot over a 2-3 zone or it could be orange crush time.
This is not one of those years where I look at the tourney and say “good gosh that’s a tough bracket” but it’s not as easy of a path as some are making it out to be, either.
“When it comes down to it, this is a good squad that scores a lot of points, but doesn’t have a lockdown defense. Because the defense is not fantastic, we will not win against quality teams when we have an off shooting night. The days of Wayne and Danny going 2-10 have to end, or this season is going to be over in a hurry. We just need to be hot for 5 straight games.”
can’t add a thing other than to say I totally agree wb–of course Roy could always surprise me and fold in a little 3-2 zone.