Draft Express catches up on the rumor mill concerning Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington.
-Ty Lawson—Similar to Henderson, most NBA personnel consider it a foregone conclusion that Lawson will be in the draft when it’s all said and done.
-Wayne Ellington- This one is a bit more interesting, as its becoming tougher and tougher to find an NBA scout these days (and we’ve polled at least two dozen on this subject) who consider Ellington a lock for the first round. In fact, many we’ve spoken to have him slated in the second round. Complicating matters is the fact that Ellington already tested the waters last year, meaning that he will be in the draft for good if he decides to put his name in. North Carolina could also really use some help at the guard spot next season, as they appear to be loaded in the frontcourt but have almost nothing in terms of proven scoring ability right now, and would probably make this Ellington’s team if he elected to return. Still, considering how well Ellington played over the last two months of the season, it’s hard to tell exactly how much more he could do to improve his draft stock if teams still haven’t been won over by his play.
The question has been asked as to why this is taking so long? The answer I think lies with Ellington. Lawson’s mind is likely already been made but UNC is not going to announce this piecemeal so they are probably waiting on Ellington. Most of the mock drafts have Ellington on the 1st round bubble and if he is not a lock then it appears to be extremely risky business to declare now. If Ellington returns then he will be a prolific scorer on a team that will still be very balanced on offense. The biggest difference would be the absence of Lawson but Ellington looked darn good in the two games he played in the ACC Tournament sans his fellow junior.
Also of note, Draft Express is indicating that Duke’s Gerald Henderson is all but gone meaning UNC could end up being the preseason favorite to win the ACC again regardless of what happens.
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One would have to question how much better WE’s stock would be next year?
Last year, Hansbrough was coming off a NPOY, stayed in school, was a 1st-team All American, won a National Championship, and is currently projected in the same range he he was last year, in a weaker draft. It is arguable that his stock dropped.
This year, WE is coming off a Championship and FF MOP. I don’t think it is reasonable to assume his stock will rise next in next year’s draft as it is projected to be MUCH stronger. Remember, in the NBA’s eyes, potential counts more than previous results.
C.Michael:
“One would have to question how much better WE’s stock would be next year?”
Assuming he does not get a 1st round promise, if he has another chance to improve his skill level in college, it could push him into the 1st round (guaranteed contract).
The bottom line with Ellington that he is not tall for an NBA 2-guard at 6’4” and he is not a highly athletic player. Those type of players sometimes have trouble in the NBA unless their skill level is off the charts. Wayne had the benefit of having Danny and Tywon to help get him open shots this year, and even then he looked streaky at times. If he is the primary (i.e., only) scoring guard on the team and does it by himself next year, he could possibly demonstrate a higher skill level and look better to the NBA. But you are correct about next year’s draft being stronger.
Just watch one quarter of and NBA playoff game (if you can) and look at how quickly the guards get shots off and how the wing type guys finish at the rim.
WE, I think would be just fine during regular season games but I’m not sure he has he explosiveness to be a key contributor when the defense gets ramped up. Having said that, I hope there is a GM out there who has a spot for him. I think he’s earned a shot.
can’t let an opportunity to bash Dook pass by:
UNC wins the Carlyle Cup!
Here are some cool shoes that weren’t worn in the NCAAT to my knowledge:
http://www.nicekicks.com/2009/03/air-jordan-2009-unc-pe/
If Ellington could possibly gain some experience his senior year handling the ball it could improve his stock in 2010. As a 2 who has proven he can be a reserve 1 he would be all the more valuable to a potential drafting team.
I do not agree with the notion that Ellington cannot get better or improve his stock, especially if he is playing beside a pass first PG. This was also said of Hansbrough and it was true but with Ellington I have to think he can show more as a ballhandler, defender and as a finisher at the rim.
Actually, if Ellington can simply do what he did in the final four over a full season, he would unquestionably be a first round pick.
A big problem for him this year was his cold streaks. That is why he didn’t even make third team all acc. (doesn’t it seem insane now that he was the final four MOP, but did not make the THIRD TEAM all acc?)
If he becomes a fully consistent scorer, a la, a less-muscular Ben Gordon, he will be set. And he may be set if an NBA team thinks that he can shoot the lights out every game.
That is a good point with which I agree, wb3, but it makes Ellington sound awfully similar to Donald Williams, who ended up having a pretty good (and long) career in Europe, I believe.
I think another thing that Ellington could show next season is a consistent ability to drive the basket from the wing. We saw it at times this season and he was successful. The perimeter shot is there, the pull back off the dribble is there and a consistent ability to drive would make his offensive side near complete. The defensive end is where he needs to improve the most.
Great point, UNC33. That seems to be something that MJ did to perfection.