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Giglio: Three Reasons Why UNC Will Beat Villanova

To sum up: experience, Tyler Hansbrough unleashed and it’s just like playing Duke.

I think the experience factor will be crucial as Giglio points out:

There’s a big difference between just being happy to be there, which was the case last year, and trying to win the whole thing.

Also, UNC has already played at Ford Field, and had a successful experience there.

Last year, UNC went from Charlotte (ACC Tournament) to Raleigh (opening rounds) to Charlotte (regional) to the huge stage at the Alamadome and didn’t handle the change in scenery.

This UNC team has a huge win at Ford Field, plus the experience of the ACC Tournament at a dome. Every extra bit of confidence for the UNC shooters helps.

Villanova, conversely, played on their home floor in the first round and in a garden-variety NBA building in the regionals. The adjustment to the dome setting will be a jolt, especially for the shooters, to Villanova.

When you are showing up focused on the goal and not on the experience or the surroundings, the team should play better.  Obviously it did not help UCLA three straight season but in this case I think it will. In 1993, you could tell by the look on George Lynch’s face that UNC was there to win a title.  Based on what the players have been saying I am anticipating the same kind of attitude from the Heels this time around.

Tyler Hansbrough is generally a beast after a low scoring game and since he will be facing a team with limited interior threats I expect to see vintage Hansbrough.  On top of that I think Hansbrough is going to be six kinds of motivated for this.  Since this is a team similar to Duke, Ty Lawson will be key.  Then again Lawson is always key.

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18 comments to Giglio: Three Reasons Why UNC Will Beat Villanova

  • 52bgJ

    all certainly relevant issues, but I believe the most important factor is they’ve apparently decided defense matters.

  • briarcliff

    Honestly, I just want to beat Villanova so we have a chance to win Monday night. We are 1-5 in the semifinals in our last six trips. We MUST beat Nova. No shame in losing to anyone on Monday night, but after what happened last year (and what’s happened historically), we need to get out of the semis first. After that, I like the team’s chances to win it all.

  • I feel the same way briarcliff.

  • The semifinal seems to be the tougher game. UNC has won three straight title games, the problem has been getting there.

  • DetroitHeel

    I’m just thankful that I will be in the building cheering on the Heels in my own city. Anyone else coming up for the game?

  • william

    I think those really terrible riots and unrest have dissuaded many from attending.

  • Bronxtales Tar Heels

    UNC – 83
    Villanova – 67

    Michagan St. – 72
    UConn – 71

    Monday Night – UNC – 101 Michagan St. 85

    Mark it down…………..

  • mcgoody

    DetroitHeel, I will be there with you my friend. I can’t wait!

  • wb3

    I will be there, but am a little scared.

  • Heels Perspective

    ^^ I like “Bronxtales” thought process.

  • william

    I think that if you look at the history of UNC in the Final Four since the end of the Wooden era, the basic rule is that UNC does fairly well if they were clearly the best team in the ACC that season. If they were not, then they probably don’t walk away with the title.

    It probably makes sense because if you aren’t the best team in your own conference, then it is hard to be the best in the entire nation.

    Looking back, in 1977, UNC was the best ACC team and almost won it all, losing a close one to Marquette in the finals. In 1981, UNC was not close to being the best team in the ACC and lost badly in the finals, after upsetting UVa in the Semi-Finals. In 1982, UNC was just barely the best team in the ACC and won it all. In 1991, UNC was at best equal to Duke in the ACC and lost in the Semi’s to Kansas. In 1993, UNC was clearly the best team in the ACC and won the title. In 1995, UNC emerged from a four team morass at the top of the ACC to make the Final Four, but was not clearly the best in the ACC that year. In 1997 and 1998, UNC won the ACC tourney but not the ACC regular season titles and did not win it all. In 2000, UNC had no business even being in the Final Four and obviously did not win it. In 2005, UNC was clearly, albeit, barely, the best in the ACC over all, and won the title.

    In 2008, UNC broke the rule of thumb and did not do well in the Final Four after clearly being the best ACC team.

    Last year was disappointing, but it does not take a genius to figure out that UNC does better in the Final Four in those years where Carolina fans and players are not especially happy to get to the Final Four. In years like 1991, 1995, 1997 and 2000, we were thrilled just to make it to the Final Four. That is not a real good indicator of a team that is going to win it all, sort of like MSU in 2005 and 2009.

    Was Illinois thrilled to go to the Final Four in 2005? Was Duke thrilled to go to the Final Four in 1999? No, because these were great teams that expected to be there. Was Florida thrilled to go to the Final Four in 2007? No, because they expected to be there and won. UNC needs to be like Florida and finish the job because just getting there is not enough this year.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=jackson/090331&sportCat=ncb&campaign=rsssrch&source=scoop_jackson

  • I think the players, at least based on the press conference on Tuesday are looking at it as business. Last season I think they got hung up absolving the Georgetown loss. It would be easy this season to look at it as absolving the Kansas loss except I am not sure they are seeing it that way. They are heading to Detroit to win the national title not just be there or just get to the title game. There are many factors that go into getting the job done. I have a good feeling about this team. It is a gut reaction but I did not feel like this last season but did have an inkling they might do it in 2005. We will see if it bears out.

  • wb3

    “In 2008, UNC broke the rule of thumb and did not do well in the Final Four after clearly being the best ACC team.”

    Quite true. The problem was the ACC was terrible last year, and frankly not much better this year IMO. It is very interesting that the team has seemed to come together after having tougher challenges in the earlier rounds this year. I have to think being tested before the final four is a very good thing for this team.

  • Detroit Heel you have wb3′s back.

    Feel free to send any on site reports to tarheelfanblog@gmail.com like C.Michael did during the ACCT.

  • briarcliff

    Not going to Detroit — not after last year. San Antonio was awful for obvious reasons, but I’ve never been to a worse venue than that Dome or that city. This may be hard to believe for some, but Detroit will be a huge step up from San Antonio. For one, you can get a direct flight to Detroit.

    Still, I’m not going. I’m either celebrating on Franklin Street, or quietly crying myself to sleep — in my own bed.

  • wb3

    ^ Agreed. San Antonio was not fun. The game made things much worse.

  • UCLA wasn’t helped by experience because each year they were inferior to whoever they lost to, and in last year’s case, were inferior to all of the other teams.

  • william

    It is always difficult to rank conferences. For instance, one conference might have ten teams that are all pretty good but none of them top ten caliber, while another might only have two really good teams but both of them top five caliber.

    While UNC has not had a lot of trouble with Duke the last couple of years, that doesn’t mean other teams haven’t. Especially last season, Duke steamrolled a pretty impressive list of top teams, losing only to Pitt in overtime.

    Nevertheless, if the ACC has lost some respect, it is because Duke is not holding up its part in the post-season, which doesn’t particularly bother me or probably most of us.

    For some reason, Duke simply does not do well in the NCAA tourney. This has been especially true since they last won the title in 2001, with 2004 really being the only exception, but many people would argue that Duke should have won it all that year and that therefore 2004 would not qualify as a successful post-season for Duke either.

    The strange thing is that K has lost games that seemed eminently winnable in the NCAA going all the way back to the beginning of his career, with the loss to Washington in the NCAA tourney in the mid-80′s. Duke could have so easily beaten Louisville and Arkansas in the NCAA finals. Losing so badly to Seton Hall in 1989 was not foreseen. They could have so easily beaten UConn in 1999 and 2004.

    Strangely enough, they did win in 1991 and 1992, where both years the title seemingly belonged to UNLV and Kentucky, and in 2001, a year that Duke did not even win the ACC outright and seemed about even with Maryland, head to head.

    But the really bad losses in NCAA tourney play are beginning to pile up for Duke and K. You have the crushing defeat to Seton Hall. You have the record annihilation against UNLV in 1990, albeit mitigated by the next season’s sucess when Grant Hill arrived. You have the throbbing collapse against Kentucky in 1998. You have the loss to a mediocre Indiana in 2002 and a mediocre LSU in 2006. You have the embarrassment against VCU in 2007, followed by the mild spanking against a good WVU in 2008, followed by a 23 point thrashing this year via Villanova.

    Carolina has generally avoided such painful defeats, with losses such as the one to George Mason in 2006 or to Georgetown in 2007 being unpalatable, but hardly embarrassing.

    Carolina’s loss last year to Kansas, as painful as it was, seems par for the course for the Duke fans. So, I would argue, that most of the problems, if they exist at all, with the quality of the ACC, are post-season problems with Duke and also, Wake and Clemson, of late, failing to live up to their regular season potential.