Where: The Final Four, Ford Field, Detroit Michigan
When: Saturday, April 4th, approx. 8:47 PM
TV: CBS
Livestats: SCACC Hoops
Liveblogging: No
Records: UNC 32-4, Villanova 30-7
NCAA Results: UNC def. Radford, LSU, Gonzaga, Oklahoma; Villanova def. American, UCLA, Duke, Pitt
What does 2009 Villanova and 2005 Michigan St. have in common? They both beat Duke in the Sweet Sixteen.
We can only hope this game ends up the same way the one in 2005 did.
The matchup is simple. Villanova has great guard play and basically one big man in 6-8 Dante Cunningham. In that respect the Wildcats are similar to Duke but slightly better. Cunningham is athletic enough to bother Tyler Hansbrough and the Nova guards led by Scottie Reynolds are capable of giving UNC some trouble. The Heels need to show up and play defense like they did versus Oklahoma. They also need to shoot the ball well.
UNC Final Four losses are generally marked with poor shooting. That being said, there is every reason to be confident that will not be the case in this game. Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington come in shooting as well as one could possibly hope for. Danny Green started to heat up against Oklahoma. I fully expect the Heels’ offense will show up in this one mainly because as much as Cunningham will give Hansbrough some difficulty, the Heels have multiple inside threats and depth. In short the inside game will open up the outside shooters who will ultimately do the job.
The Heels are in Detroit to take care of business. Ty Lawson called Detroit “a working city” which he said was good because the Heels “came to work.” Task #1? Dispatch Villanova and advance to Monday night. Along these lines I believe UNC has an advantage in experience but also in being ready to play in this game. Of the two teams, Villanova is the one that must acclimate to being in the Final Four. That is bound to have an impact, one that will give the Heels an edge.
UNC 83 Villanova 69
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Hansbrough is on the cusp of what I believe is the main thing he has wanted his whole life. Lawson’s skill and heart have blossomed with the spring, as has his willingness and ability to take responsibility for the team. Green is back in his groove, along with Ellington. Frasor has been finding ways to contibute. Davis has of late started to remind people again of why they compared him to Sam Perkins.
Unlike william, C.Michael and THF, to name just three, I don’t know much about statistics. I don’t study Pomeroy’s analysis. But I haave watched this team play, and I believe as much as an outsider can thay they are ready to claim their destiny.
“But I haave watched this team play, and I believe as much as an outsider can thay they are ready to claim their destiny.”
The stat-geek agrees, 100%!!
The guard play for Villanova is my biggest concern. If Thompson / Davis combine to add 12-18 points and good portion of boards, it will be very tough for NOVA to choose which area to defend (outside / inside). I think we should nickname Lawson “the KEY”…think about it. Perhaps even more than Felton in 2005, Ty has found ways to get it done.
I’m expecting a good start to this game. Rath68, they don’t term economics “the dismal science” for nothing…
I’m concerned about how the wind-speed in Ford Field will affect our shooting–anyone have a FF weather report?
as i’ve said before, i dont see these guys allowing a loss now. whenever there’s a stretch tonight that doesnt go well, they’re going to immediately bear down and overcome it.
maybe Mich St or UConn is good enough to beat us when both teams play a pretty good game. MAYBE. but mostly, i see this team as only losing because they beat themselves. because they LOST, not the other team won.
when you think about it, this team has everything going for it. statistically, the best Offense, with a very respectable Defense. Four of the Top 50 offensively efficient players in the land. Senior leadership, talented freshmen that contribute. Veteran players in their 2nd FF, and 3rd straight E8. TWO ACC POYs. A NPOY. the quickest PG in the NCAA. Probably a minimum of FIVE future NBAers playing significant minutes. a team that draws fouls and doesnt commit a lot, that makes most of their FTs. a team that gets turnovers and scores off turnovers. a team that scores more off made baskets than any in America, i’d wager. a team that seems to be playing its best ball at both ends at the right time. a Hall of Fame coach. the added HUGE motivation of the last 2 years.
you’d be hard pressed to get anymore potential physical or mental advantages on your side.
I don’t know what the score will be, or anything about the other team, but I know these guys will pull it out. They want this, they are 2 games away. No one is going to take this away from them. Nova is going to be tough, and heck, we might lose. But, I really doubt that. Whether we win ugly or pretty, I know we will win. GO HEELS!
so Xavier Henry wants to go to Kansas now, and his brother at Memphis wants to transfer there, also.
is this just a case of family ties to Kansas, or is Self’s way of playing really that appealing?
i’ve got UNC fever today! its Carolina vs undefeated #1 Virginia in lacrosse right now on espnU. early 2 goal lead. Go Heels!
Mike Copeland interviews his team mates. Funny! Let’s get loose Tar Heel fans!
http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/inside/roywilliams/index-index.html?&url=http://mfile.akamai.com/26782/wmv/cstvcbs.download.akamai.com/8108/open/unc/08-09/video/m-baskbl/04apr/040309_unc_m-baskbl_feat.wmv
Can’t wait, Can’t wait, Pins and needles. Only 4 more hours to go.
More like 7 to go. Poop.
It’s mostly mental now. Will the team show up and play hard from the start? When they have had preventable losses (aside from poor general shooting efforts for the team as a whole) I think it has been mostly due to lapses in concentration, which manifest mostly on defense.
Obviously if you shut the other team down defensively, create turnovers and win rebounding, we know what UNC can do!
I think that the first 10 minutes will tell the tale.
great game by the UNC Lax team. had to play with their backup goalie for over a half and only lost 11-10. exciting down the stretch.
Nows the time where I start getting antsy. To much time left til the game.
My friend text me and asked how they were doing and I told her they don’t play ’til 7:45 (my time) and she then asked how my blood pressure was. My reply: Steady…steadily rising that is. She laughed.
I’m afraid to leave the house for fear of jinxing something.
6 hours exactly to go.
I’m so pumped for the game, I’ve been channeling Ricky Bobby’s victory scream all day:
“Wooooooooooooooooo! Wooooooooooooooooo!”
I don’t have any celery (my stress food) so I’ve been chowing down on cookies and chips instead.
I say Tar, you say Heels!
TAR!
Heels!
I hear people often talk about Ricky Bobby. I don’t proclaim to have ever been a racing genius, but throughout the course of my life, I have never heard of Ricky Bobby. I recall a Bobby Allison from my younger years, but that is it.
UNCGirl, I’d have to say celery may be a good stress food. I like the way it “crunches” when I’m angry, as I snaringly snap a bite.
Carrotts are good for that too.
Is anyone here worried about matching up with that 3 guard look Villanova gives? Our guys just need to stay in front of their man and not let the guards penetrate. Certainly the Duke games have been good preparation for this.
I worry about any team that gets this far, but hopefully our D is good, Tyler can get his, and Ty can do his job.
We are all good. Chill out, sit back and enjoy the show that is Carolina Basketball. We have waited a year for this and I’m sure we will be impressed.
3 hours, 27 minutes.
lol.relax uncgirl.the uconn/michigan st. game will keep you occupied.think of it as scouting our next opponent.
Here’s another round of biorhythm crystal ball-ery for you:
P=Physical, E=Emotional, I=Intellect, M=Mastery (an X-Factor if you will)
UNC:
Green 6/22/1987…P= 40, E=95, I=80, M=60
Thompson 9 /16/1988…P= 100, E=60, I=75, M=85
Hansbrough 11/3/1985…P= 10, E=60, I=95, M=50
Lawson 11/3/1987… P= 85, E=85, I=70, M=75
Ellington 11/29/1987…P= 50, E=60, I=100, M=75
Frasor 10/31/1986…P= 85, E=40, I=100, M=90
Davis 6/5/89… P= 25, E=5, I=55, M=40
Drew 3/5/90…P= 65, E=25, I=100, M=80
Copeland…3/25/85…P = 30, E=70, I=30, M=30
Zeller…1/17/90… P= 75, E-20, I=15, M=45
Watts…7/1/90…P = 20, E = 0, I = 10, M =15
Coach Williams 8/1/50…Wisdom= 75
Villanova:
20 Clark, Shane…….. f 11/26/1985…P= 10, E = 10, I = 55, M = 30
22 Anderson, Dwayne…. f 06/22/1986…P = 5, E = 100, I = 95, M = 50
33 Cunningham, Dante… c 04/22/1987…P = 20, E = 90, I = 40, M = 30
01 Reynolds, Scottie… g 10/10/1987…P = 95, E = 100, I = 0, M = 45
15 Redding, Reggie….. g 06/18/1988…P = 100, E = 100, I = 90, M = 95
00 Pena, Antonio……. 07/20/1986…P = 20, E = 100, I = 95, M=55
10 Fisher, Corey……. 04/08/1988…P = 95, E = 0, I = 95, M = 95
24 Stokes, Corey……. 04/24/1988…P = 20, E = 100, I = 5, M = 10
Coach Jay Wright…12/24/61….Wisdom = 50
Backcourt and Wings: The Trio plus Drew Two are Newtonian Brainy this evening and all have P-arcs of 50 or above. Lawson and Ellington are spirited while cool Bobby Frasor hovers around the half mark. These are great numbers. And these men must deliver this evening both from long range and in the task of stunting the penetration of the wildcat guards. All look ready for the chore…very ready. Lawson is strong and so is Frasor…and Ellington is brilliant.
Frontcourt: Hansbrough is in keeping with the Mensa lean of the backcourt with his 100 I-arc. This should keep him from being suckered by driving guards and head fakes from forwards. He is physically low but what does that mean for a Tyler Hansbrough? Normalcy perhaps? Flanking the pivot are two more smart guys in Green and Thompson. Green, for whom the Intelligence mark has been all-important is also sub-par physically but soaring cerebrally. Bravo on that. Deon is a bear in contrast, but a smart one. Ed Davis is not strong but here too is an above average mind at work in the paint. Zeller, while not with his teammates mentally is an agile inside player.
Overall: We have the numbers though fine arcs from Redding and Fisher tend to even out to some degree the enthusiasm and bring back to earth the prognostication. Fisher has no emotion whatsoever. There are indications that this is an important mark for him. Redding is, however, superhuman biorhythmically and may only be containable at best, at worst a game-changer. Reynolds is physical primed but not smart and under Tar Heel pressure just may break. The wildcat inside players will be led not by Cunningham but Anderson (who had a fine game versus Pitt). He has almost identical marks to Hansbrough and watch for these two sly post men working to outwit one another. My money is on the Ogre. All in all this game looks to be interesting for 2/3 of the duration with Tar Heel numbers piling up on Villanova. Green and Thompson will be too much in the end (this whole thing may be over earlier than the 10 minute mark in the second half if Deon starts like he did against the blew devils in game #1 in the Tool Box) and Ellington will prove the threat from beyond the arc that we need. Yes, Hansbrough and Cousy Lawson will have their signature games but so too with their supporting casts. Frasor’s length will also be important in containing Fisher and Reynolds while Lawson will throw speed at them alternatively. Watch for a pair of Frasor Treys to mark the pull away. For good measure look at Coach’s wisdom arc. He’s the man in the end here and watch for the wise substitutions and chess master application of his squad.
Tar Heels by 15.
wow…..im confused.can you explain your theory,and/or tell me my horoscope and winning lottery numbers too?
it’s the whole prestidigitation of looking at your birthday and then plotting out the peaks and valleys of your biorhythms, looking at the day of competition to gain insight as to how well you will perform.
it’s a fun read if nothing else, and i like his prediction
“Whooooooooooooooooooooo! Whewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!”
Shake,,,and bake !!
Carolina has the advantage at each position on the floor except for PG where it is probably a toss up. I think ‘Nova has to pick their poison on defense. If Carolina is hitting their shots it doesn’t matter if they don’t play great defense.
I like Carolina by around 8-12 points.
Czar of ACC blog:
UNC 82
Villanova 76
Excellent analysis…UNC shuld have an edge in FT attempts. if Ellington / Green are in the building it would be a long night for the Cats