Next season is going to be interesting.
So now that the strangest and most annoying recruiting ever has concluded with John Wall taking half my life to make the painfully obvious decision to play for John Calipari, let’s take stock for what it means going forward.
1. Kentucky
Well the fans got what they wanted. They acquired a top flight coach who was able to sign three upper tier recruits to go along with the ones UK already had. Patrick Patteron is returning to school, many think Jodie Meeks will do the same and out of the blue(no pun intended) the Wildcats are an instant Final Four favorite. Jeff Goodman made them #1 in his early preseason poll and Gary Parrish at CBSSportsline was gushing over the assumed reality of Calipari getting anyone he wants to play for him in Lexington. And honestly, there is not much one can say to argue UK won’t be a persistent power for years to come. Aside from the shadiness that surrounds Calipari, he is obviously a great recruiter made more effective by his willingness to take players of questionable moral/academic credentials. In addition, Calipari does not care if they are there one year, he will make do with what he has. In some respects it is a lot like, well, Roy Williams being at UNC without all the crap. Roy is a top notch recruiter and UNC is a brand name in college basketball. Put the two together and you get top recruiting classes every other season. The situation is the same except you have to wonder whether (1) some point an NCAA violation or seven will derail the whole train and (2) if Calipari can build a title winner using different parts, some of them for only one season. Experienced teams tend to win national titles. UK is going to be very talented in 2010 but there are questions of the freshman making the transition to college. There are also questions of the current UK players making the transition to Calipari’s system. Then you have chemistry both in terms of players getting along and players meshing on the court. I for one think Goodman is jumping the gun to put UK ahead of Kansas in the preseason poll when the Jayhawks return a ton of experience and have players on their team who have one ring already. Heck, even in UNC’s experience it took time. The 2004 team was horrible compared to the 2005 version. The 2007 team which I would argue is at least as talented and deep as the 2010 Kentucky team lost eight games and missed the Final Four. So, while UK will be a formidable opponent and a game UNC could very well lose in Lexington during the upcoming season, I would not crown them champions just yet.
2. Duke
The theory goes that Duke still came out in the black on the whole John Wall ordeal even though they did not secure his committment. The general feeling is that Mike Krzyzewski was after Wall not so much for Wall himself but to establish some credibility in getting players like Wall. It is no secret that Krzyzewski detested losing players after one season. His reaction to William Avery doing it was brutal and while he may not have made a big deal about Luol Deng leaving or losing Shaun Livingston after Livingston signed, it became clear Krzyzewski wanted nothing to do with players who would leave early. And that would have worked out fine except Roy showed up in Chapel Hill and proceeded to clean Duke’s clock on a regular basis. Now Krzyzewski had a problem. UNC was sucessfully mixing classes with 1-2 year players and four year guys to form a juggernaut. Duke on the other hand is simply stuck with the 3-4 four year players and no one that knocks your socks off. Krzyzewski’s Olympic stint did not help either nor does the fact he has cheerleaders for assistant coaches. So the calculus in going after Wall was to change the way Duke was being viewed in terms of who Krzyzewski was willing to bring in. If Wall had landed in Durham, it would have been a huge coup. I think Gerald Henderson withdraws from the NBA Draft had Wall committed but more than that, Duke would have signaled to every recruit out there that Cameron was once again a safe haven for players only interested in the bare minimum required by the NBA collective bargaining agreement. Since Wall decided to head to UK, one can argue that Krzyzewski still scored some points with those types of players though I am convinced the issues in Durham run deeper than the recruiting.
3. UNC
When Roy Williams made the call in April to John Wall, it was more or less to guage Wall’s interest and informally put UNC into the race. Apparently it never went beyond that and a few background phone calls on the part of the assistants. Only Roy knows why and NCAA rules prohibit him from saying so. My speculation all along has been that Roy never felt comfortable with the baggage(or perceived baggage) surrounding Wall. There was also the matter of Wall’s AAU coach Brian Clifton who made it clear he wanted nothing to do with Roy mainly because Roy did not kiss his ring and make him feel important or something. Of course Roy also had multiple luxuries. The first is he already had a highly touted recruiting class. Unlike 2005, Roy did not have to leave the championship celebration to go find players to fill the roster two years later. The foundation for the next two years was already laid with the 2009 class. The other luxury was 124 wins and a national title in four seasons. Roy’s stock could not be higher and winning like creates a much easier environment in which to recruit. Basically Roy had just proven he could recruit a solid team and win a title without dealing with baggage perceived or otherwise. The biggest issues Roy dealt with in the past four years was Ty Lawson’s brush with CHPD and Danny Green’s father who pushed Roy’s buttons from time to time. Besides that it was smooth sailing.
The question is how UNC fares on the changing landscape where Kentucky boasts a solid recruiter along with their brand name and Duke might be shaking off a few years of bad recruiting to start making plays on highly ranked recruits? The answer is: I have no idea other than to say that I trust Roy’s ability to guide this program until the day he retires. Roy has shown that he can recruit the players he needs, he can rebuild quickly following a mass NBA exodus and in short order can develop a team into a national champion. Yes, UK is going to be a major player. It would be silly to say what goes on in Lexington will not somehow impact UNC. It is equally silly to think Duke is simply going to wallow in their current state. What I do know is Roy Williams has the UNC program at perhaps its highest point ever and regardless of what might go on at Kansas, Kentucky, Duke or NC State, I know UNC will as much a force on the stage as anyone else. There is too much history and accomplishment in the program, especially in the past five years to suggest otherwise.
And at the end of the day, you can rest assured it was done the right way.
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Watching Kentucky evolve next year will be very interesting. I hear that Calipari did put a call into Butch Davis to get some tips on “basic math”….
I’m very excited about the Heels next year. Overall, the Heels class is just a notch below UK in terms of high school ratings and I think we will have a similar shakedown as UK, although I trust Roy to handle the egos as he has demonstrated quite a few times.
Duke will be competitive next year but I don’t think anything beyond the Sweet 16.
Based on all I’ve read before, it was the Livingston situation that turned coach K off, +/- completely, from pursuing potential 1-Doner’s. The deng situation worked in the concept of that year’s team…which save for a bad 5-minute stretch at the end could’ve played Ga Tech in the 2004 finals.
Patterson returning is a boost for Calipari. I’ll be interested to see his profile rocket higher, especially if he does a Blake Griffin impersonation averaging huge numbers. Hard to see much competition occurring in the SEC, except for a few teams.
I think the way Coach Williams is building his program is the right way. Memphis got burned right when their name was on the radar. Their coach took his players to his next gig. Who’s to say that UK will get a better deal?
I still like Drew. He played well in the pressure-packed March tournaments. Give him a chance to play more and shake the rust off.
I’m 100% positive that John Wall will make a difference in college ball and will turn pro and have a good career. I’m not knocking him in any way.
I just like how UNC is building the program.
I also have a lot of respect for Sidney Lowe. He was part of the circus, but didn’t compromise where he wants to go for the short-term. He is really impressive so far. A lot of people have said negative things about him, but he has a plan and is willing to stick to it in the face of criticism. He’s building a program the right way. Maybe the UNC-NCSU game will be televised after dark in a season or two because it’s a meaningful rivalry again.
when do we play UK? that will be a heck of a game this season. however, as i recall, we played them sans hansbrough, and of all people, Deon Thompson had his best game of the season on both ends of the floor, scoring 18 and containing patterson to the extent anyone can. they’re upgrading at a few positions like cousins and wall, and Meeks didn’t really break out til later in the year. however, Cousins in early season won’t be able to run with our team and we have ed davis and tyler zeller with a year of experience, conditioning and strength training under their belt. we will also have our defensive stopper DT coming back to put patterson back in his place, and our other defensive stopper back for Meeks. Outside of Wall, i do not see how UK instantly catapults to #1. Then again, with the basketball landscape as it is, we lost four starters and a top reserve and are still in the top 10, so go figure.
as for UK as a whole, we all know they are back on the map. just like people “knew” we were back on the map with the arrival of Roy. hope and production are two different things. two titles and 4 final fours in 5 years is NOT the norm, and calipari has his work cut out for him big time to live up to people’s unrealistic expectations. the real test will be next year without wall, cousins, patterson, and meeks, to see what he can do the following 2-3 years in rebuilding should they not win this year. I too believe kansas should be the overall #1 as of right now.
This feels like a great year for us, we will be completely off the radar, but unlike 05-06, we have enough talent to go deep into the tourney and maybe surprise a few folks. can you say UNC the “cinderella”? mmmmhahahahaaha!
I hate Duke, but honestly, the current general consensus is the ACC is a one team conference, and that’s not good for our RPI or the reputation of the once mighty ACC. I can’t really hope K turns it around for obvious reasons, but if i was a Duke fan, i’d really look at who i had on my staff. is wojo really their big man coach? k is obviously a very competent coach, i don’t know why he surrounds himself with lackeys instead of people who will push him and the program to new levels.
ncsu: not sure what i can tell them to do. coach lowe isn’t winning games, he does have a few good recruits coming in over hte next two years, so we’ll see. herb sendek was perfect there because he was content to play the underdog, but he wasn’t the answer and it looks like lowe isn’t either if they actually want to re-establish themselves as a power in the ACC and not just be content to snag an upset here or there and make a first round appearance occasionally. is it just me or does the ACC have a talent drain when it comes to coaching?
THF-
Excellent piece. I thought that you put forth an accurate forecast of things to come. Do you see any similarity in Coach K at this stage of his career and Bob Knight at the same point (in his career)? At age 62, Mike Krzyzewski is an aging legend, who happens to find himself a little out-of-touch in the current recruiting landscape. After the 1993 season, Bob Knight never again had a team that won more than 25 games. Coach K can win 25 games with two good players and a roster of 40-and-ups, but the similarities lie in the recruiting trends. After the Calbert Cheaney class, Bob Knight struggled mightily to land talented wing players. Coach K struggles to land both dominant interior players and explosive point guards. Again, I’m just curious if you’ve observed such similarities. Then again, you weren’t raised in Big Ten country.
I must say that I don’t see Dook coming away from the John Wall recruitment with any positives. Sure, one might look at it and say, “they were in it until the very end.” Also, I read on ESPN that Clifton had chosen Dook, but Wall preferred UK/Calipari. Now, the word-of-mouth amongst players is far more significant than what is written on ESPN blogs. All of these elite players knew that Wall coveted the UNC program/tradition, and that his heroes,aside from Derrick Rose, were former Tar Heels. I think that the UNC program looks to be resting on the high ground for bypassed an obvious shot at back-to-back titles for long term stability. Not many coaches can say that, if given the opportunity, they wouldn’t have gone for John Wall if he were interested in thier program.
I do think it potentially removes some of the anti-one and done perception about Duke. The problem is Duke and especially the coaching staff are less and less appealing as time goes on. The intensity of what goes on in the Duke program and the fact they do not appear to be developing any sort of balance on offense nor are their any signs big men are developing there. Add in the lack of deep NCAA Tournament runs, an ACC title that is hollow considering UNC did not show up and the number of transfers what you have is a program stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Great info and analysis, I do think there is too much made of what effect Cal at UK will mean for UNC.
1. He was a great recruiter at Memphis and he’ll be a great recruiter at KU – he has already been taking talent out of the pool for his team.
2. This isn’t additive, there is only one Cal, we suddenly don’t have two coaches with his ability to recruit and coach.
3. Only so many scholarships – I agree strongly that experience and trust is the big key to winning in college, something that is hard to come by when you are a revolving door of one and done players and people get cut for the next great player.
4. Violations – Maybe but there aren’t any as yet and it will be probably three years before we hear of any regardless so this is a non-issue in the short-term. I know a few KU fans and they are split about 3 to 1 on Cal, most fear the NCAA violations more than anything.
That’s all I have for Calipari as for Duke they seem to have a shortage of guards next season. This was pointed out yesterday on the radio and I do think it will be a problem for them aside from the lack of a big man…I think Duke would have been big trouble with Henderson returning but without him and their other issues I think we might see some games dropped early and perhaps some persistent back pain.
Additionally, congrats to the baseball team and a great showing for Warren at the best time of the year. We have great talent and it looks as though they are hitting their stride presently. This might be a good year to visit sunny Nebraska.
Go Heels!
” I think that the UNC program looks to be resting on the high ground for bypassed an obvious shot at back-to-back titles for long term stability”
I had to digest that statement a few minutes but I do agree. I do wonder if Roy had this mindset? Or did he not want to get involved at all with the possibility of a media discussion with Clifton?
Next year will technically be a rebuilding year and one could make the argument that the Heels are “reloading”. If we’re talking about the point guard position I truly believe Larry D will surprise us (don’t get caught up in comparing him to the way Lawson played in the NCAA) and remember Kendall Marshall is heading our way in 2010.
Good points all.
Sorry for the semantics below…Jayhawk fans have corrected me before on this point. I don’t think they care for the switcheroo
KU = Kansas Jayhawks
UK = Kentucky Wildcats
For future references away from the “THF home site”, it might prove useful.
As I posted numerous times, I was against recruiting John Wall. No doubt he is a great athlete, but I saw some potential risk, although I would hasten to add that I don’t know the guy.
As for Duke, I sense anxiety and desperation creeping in. They were prostituting themselves in recruiting Wall, and losing out, if in fact they were ever in, is not positive for their program in my judgment, once they threw their hat in the ring. My guess is Nolan Smith would have made a call to Johnny Dawkins about transferring to Stanford.
The Duke Basketball Report has a thread on William Avery, by their own admission one of the many academic exceptions joined by Sean Dockery and Chris Carrawell, among others, in this dubious category. Greg Newton and Ricky Price aren’t mentioned as exceptions, but having to cheat to pass a dance class suggests they had their own intellectual crosses to bear. Did you ever wonder why Duke would never let a microphone anywhere near Shelden William’s mouth? Maybe they should have nicknamed him the Rapist or the Scholar instead of the Landlord.
Regarding UK, they have served notice – they are again a force in college basketball. Calipari will go up against Carolina for recruits now. Memphis was recruiting an enterely different player than we were, so the competition just got keener.
The Wolfpack were also in the hunt for Wall, but they have gotten so mediocre and insignificant I can’t think of anything relevant to say about them.
THF – Speaking of Roy; what is his longevity? Is there any-one possibly being groomed (worst case scenario) to follow Roy?
TGH-
I see Roy coaching for another ten years. The only two things that would derail that trajectory would be either health issues or serious recruiting heartburn. In the late 90s Roy was so turned off by many of the seedy occurances he encountered on the recruiting trail. Given his track record of success, I can’t see that being a huge reason for him to retire prematurely (anymore). As far as I know (huge knock on wood), his health is just fine.
Heels Perspective-
I can see why it would take anyone a few minutes to disect the “higher ground” statement, in that the typo (should have been bypassing, not bypassed) would lead anyone astray. I basicaly meant that Roy put integrity before lust.
As for all this UK talk, that is gonna be around for awhile so buckle up. Thier fans are already annoying me on the blog scene. One fan wrote: “Kentucky are the Rolls Royce of college baskebtall, no other program matters.” Ewwwwwkay.
Well, it must be nice to be hit with recruiting violations about once every other decade. Man, at least UCLA had their sugar daddy during their fabulous stretch from the early sixties to the mid-seventies. That’s why Cal is such a good fit for the program. The UK fan base is SO thirsty for elite success that they would take five years of glory even if it came with a three-year probation afterwards. You don’t beleive me? They’ve already been there, done that.
Also, it is apparently okay to like Tubby Smith again in Lexington. As far as I know, Tubby never committed any recruiting violations, won a national title, and averaged nearly 25 wins per season. I’m just anxious to see how Rick Pitino will respond to all this Calipari bru-haha. Pitino could care less about Calipari and I’m sure that he is seeing red right about now. And that really is something that we UNC fans need to consider. Yes, Roy will be battling Cal for top recruits, but Cal vs. Pitino will be all-out warfare.
At the current rate, the UK-Louisville rivalry might again be in the same class as all the other rivalries that fall a DISTANT second to UNC-Dook.
UK-UL only play once per season, usually early on. That tends to detract from it being a rivalry with national appear. UNC-Duke are always playing for the ACC regular season, play twice per season and eight miles apart.
I must say that Heels fans are the most passionate. God bless America, Blue Heaven and the US Army.
and hot dogs, apple pie, Mom, and Nascar too. Maybe not Nascar..just not personally anyway. I couldn’t do it, that’s for sure.