J.P. Giglio has a great rundown on what this means for Duke. In short, the Blue Devils are in a world of hurt now. Without Gerald Henderson Duke could at least turn to a triumvirate of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Elliott Williams to get the job done. Without Williams the perimeter in Durham is woefully thin and the frontcourt still is not going to scare anyone.
Starters
G Smith
G Scheyer
G/F Singler
F Thomas
F ZoubekBench
G/F Kelly
F Miles Plumlee
F Mason PlumleeOuch. Still good but where are the guards? Without Williams, both Singler and Kelly will have to play the perimeter, which is fine for 3-point shooting purposes, but what about defense? You might actually see Coach K use a lot of 2-3 zone because there are no traditional perimeter reserves.
The one silver lining is Duke should be able to find enough three point shooting. The problem is guarding quicker offensive players as well as pulling someone like Singler away from the basket where he could be grabbing defensive boards.
However, looking at this roster that may not be Duke’s biggest problem. Depth is going to be a major factor. Duke will only have nine scholarship players on the roster out of a possible 13. Only two of those players are listed as guards, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer. Giglio is listing Singler and Ryan Kelly has G/F but Singler is 6-8 and Kelly is 6-10 which means at best those two are small forwards. Everyone else is 6-7 or taller and will be playing in the paint. No one can say for sure if Oleg Czyz or either of the Plumlee brothers will be effective enough for quality minutes. The same is also true of Kelly which is to say that Duke could be looking at five quality players and four other guys who are simply not ready to contribute. Needless to say, if you can run on Duke, you should and you can safely bet by mid-February we will likely hear plenty about how tired the Blue Devils are.
What does this mean for UNC? Well it means the Tar Heels are certainly not much worse off on the perimeter. UNC still has a three point shooting question to answer but assuming they can locate at least two guys who can hit 35-40% of their threes, I honestly think it becomes an even match with Duke out there. The frontcourt is not even a contest. Ed Davis and Deon Thompson are going to do what they do best backed up by Tyler Zeller and Wear Squared. UNC will also be plenty deep and while they will not run as much as they did with Ty Lawson, I expect they will still get after it on a regular basis.
In short, if there was a debate of whether UNC or Duke would win the ACC, there is not one now. Krzyzewski is a good enough coach to make chicken salad out of you know what and Duke will still be a tough out. However, the long grind of the season will likely do serious damage to any hopes of an NCAA run.
And if Phil Jackson retires from the Lakers, I imagine the “K leaving for L.A.” rumors will be as hot as the surface of the sun within 15 minutes.
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“Ed Davis and Deon Thompson are going to do what they do best backed up by Tyler Zeller and Wear Squared.”
And Jon Henson, who is going to create match-up problems up-and-down the ACC…
I second you second post C. Michael!
Does anyone fear the 2011 class that Duke may be getting?
Well, all four ACC teams in the state of NC will come down to finding a real-deal point guard. Whoever does will be in the first division and on the tournament bubble, and whoever doesn’t will be on the bottom wondering what happened to the season.
“Czyz” – for real?
That’s the word on the street C. Micheal. He’s going to be a beast.
LOL Keith. They can sure get ‘em over there in Durham can’t they?
Jamie Luckie & Karl Hess sure have their work cut out for them this year.
two thoughts here:
1) if anyone has the time, please post the list of players dook has lost to transfer in the past, say, 10 years or so. Isn’t that list getting quite high? Like to the tune of at least one per season lately?
2) as his roster falls to pieces around him, what are the chances that K needs some surgery this season? And, if so, who’s the fall guy… Collins or Wojo?
“as his roster falls to pieces around him, what are the chances that K needs some surgery this season?”
LOL. I can’t stop laughing!
LOL robuck, I’m thinking Wojo. Dook could use a new “big man coach”.
Since Doherty left, I think UNC has only had Stepheson leave.
I believe that this makes at least four for Duke during the same period. This doesn’t even include Pocius leaving early for apparently nowhere and McRoberts leaving under extremely strained circumstances.
Ahhh…I sit down for an overnight snack and, wow! Okay, the big deal here for Dook is that it is another high-profile recruit leaving, case closed. Regardless of the reason, the numbers are starting to add up.
Josh-
You sound worried about Dook’s 2011 class. Well, considering the team that the Heels will be presenting, I would say that the fear factor is much higher on the other side of the fence. I’m assuming your fear is based on the following:
1. Ed Davis and John Henson will be gone after next season.
2. Dook adds at least Harrison Barnes (if not the Knight kid, ranked #1 by Rivals, who is a point guard).
As for #1, that is the most likely scenerio. For #2, let me remind you that Wojo is the big man coach. If K were wise, he would hire someone else for this position. I honestly think that, had K hired anyone other than a Hobbit for this job, Dook would have landed both Patrick Patterson and Greg Monroe. Then again, there was that whole issue about Patterson “not feeling the Duke players.” That, unfortunately, is attributed to the Dork-0-meter always being set to “High” in Krzyzewskiville.
DF,
Don’t forget Duke also adds Curry, though I expect him to be little more than an average starter in the ACC.
I’m on the Henson train bigtime! Based on what I’ve seen and what I’m hearing so far this summer, I think we may have a “wow” factor going for us next season.
Here are the Duke players who have left early since 2004.
Luol Deng: NBA after one season
Eric Boateng: Transferred to Arizona St.
Jamal Boykin: Transferred to Cal
Shavlik Randolph: NBA after three seasons
Josh McRoberts: NBA after two seasons
Taylor King: Transferred to Villanova
Marty Pocious: Redshirted, Europe after four seasons
Elliot Williams: Left for family reasons
The Duke recruiting class of 2005 is where it all fell to pieces. Out of the class only Greg Paulus played for a full four years and could be considered to have been a decent contributor. Of course he was thrown under the bus his senior season. Pocious had decided to play in Europe. McRoberts was a bust. Boateng and Boykin left for reasons unknown.
Basically Duke got nothing from the 2005 class and UNC got a NPOY in Hansbrough along with Bobby Frasor, Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard.
Guys go pro at every school, but it is pretty well known that both Randolph and McRoberts left with bad feelings on both sides after both dramatically underachieved during their careers at Duke.
Randolph and McRoberts were two highly recruited and very talented players, who gave UNC fits at times.
Randolph especially looked good against UNC in the biggest game of Roy Williams’ career(maybe K’s too, in retrospect), in Chapel Hill in March of 2005, as well as against UConn in 2004, but ended up in foul trouble in both games or Duke might have won them both. I haven’t heard much about either of them since, although I believe that Randolph has bounced around while McRoberts has struggled to make a roster in the NBA.
Had either of them attended Carolina, it is not a stretch to think that they could have had college careers say somewhere between those of Deon Thompson and Tyler Hansbrough in achievement.
K also had two or three guys from around the millenium who left without his approval. I am not sure how he felt about Deng, as no one at Duke ever seems to talk about him, which is a very different situation from Marvin Williams.
Deng’s departure and the fact Shaun Livingston committed but then went to the NBA allegedly led K to stop recruiting even potential one and done players. The John Wall recruitment marked a change in that approach.
Thanks for bringing all those early departures forward. I believe the Duke class of 2005 was rated about the best in the country, which in retrospect seems to lend credence to those who say that they often rate the players based on where they sign.
I have seen top rated pointed guards like Chalmers, Felton, Lawson and Chris Paul and I simply cannot fathom how Greg Paulus could have been anyone’s top point guard in the country, during any period in his life. That is not a knock on the kid but he was nothing more than a workmanlike Bobby Frasor type player, valuable to any team, but tops in the country?
Most of the other guys from that Duke class from 2005 were ranked comparably to Deon Thompson and yet, Boateng and Pocius seemed basically unable to get any minutes ever and I can’t really remember Boykin but I think he is doing okay out west, if not a star.
If either Scheyer or Smith gets hurt, Dook is cooked. We have a depth problem at PG, but Dook’s is worse. And there’s a strength problem on the inside. Zoubek is decently strong but can’t move at all, and Singler, while having a nice set of elbows to throw when he thinks the refs are distracted, is still basically a skinny kid.
robuck, JBowling, uncgirl — You guys are so CRUEL. Still, wasn’t it Coach K I saw yesterday being fitted out for a body cast?
Thanks Rath! Considering it is Duke we are discussing here I take that as a complete compliment!
Has anyone heard anything about Harrison Barnes? I know that he is visiting in Chapel Hill right now. Of course, the Michael Jackson (R.I.P..wow, many of our childhoods…)news is gonna dwarf any major news in the coming days. If anyone has any info, and you don’t mind passing it along, I’m sure we’d all appreciate it.
http://www.tarheeltimes.com/uncbasketballrecruiting.aspx
Roy offered James McAdoo a scholarship recently as well. Point guard C.J. Leslie has UNC, Kentucky, and Florida as his top three, with the Heels and Caliparies being the two leaders.
SLAM online ACC recruiting breakdown:
http://www.slamonline.com/online/college-hs/college/2009/06/acc-recruiting-breakdown/
Surprise, surprise