Where: Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
When: Sunday, November 29th, 6:45 PM
TV: Fox Sports
Live Stats: SCACC Hoops
Records: UNC 5-1; Nevada 2-2
UNC has had four days of practice since the win over Gardner-Webb which Roy Williams was hoping would be extremely productive in terms of team development. Obviously this game is important for testing that development out and getting the Heels confidence before heading through the gauntlet of Michigan St. and Kentucky during the coming week. At the same time Nevada should not be taken lightly despite their 2-2 mark. The Wolf Pack are probably better than Gardner-Webb or even Valpo with a fairly efficient offense averaging 84.5 ppg. Nevada’s weak spot. Their defense which gives up 83.3 ppg.
Nevada is led by center Luke Babbitt who scored 22 points against UNC last season on 8-14 shooting. This season Babbit is averaging 20.3 ppg and 10.8 rpg. Needless to say Babbitt will be a legitimate test for UNC’s frontline defense. If memory serves Babbitt is a versatile big man who can operate anywhere on the court which puts pressure on whoever draws him to play him straight up in the post or be able to slide their feet if he decides to put the ball on the floor. Point guard Armon Johnson also played in the game against UNC last season and scored 15. This season Johnson is averaging 15.5 ppg and dishing out 5.8 apg. That would make Johnson the lynch pin of the Wolf Pack offense especially since his A/TO ratio is only 1.44. Johnson has had games with six and five turnovers. If the Heels can “Evan Turner” him so much the better. Nevada does not appear to be dependent much on the three averaging 17 attempts per game from beyond the arc. Still the shots they do take, they make at a 38% clip.
For the Heels there are two things to watch: The first is the rotation. Roy indicated after the win over Gardner-Webb that he would begin paring down the rotation to 8-9 players. I imagine we will begin to see that in earnest, especially with the games UNC has coming up. It would be best to have the rotation somewhat shored up before facing potential Final Four teams. The question is who starts seeing a drop in their playing time. Will Graves? One of the Wear Twins? That aspect will be something to keep an eye on. The second item to watch would be personnel combinations on the floor. Roy experimented with Dexter Strickland at the two alongside Larry Drew last Monday. That struck me as effective. Talentwise, Strickland is the best guard UNC has right now. He is quick and can create his own shot not to mention Strickland is very athletic. While he still needs to get acclimated running the point guard, his play at the two could be a benefit. It will be interesting to see how often we see Drew and Strickland in the backcourt with Marcus Ginyard sliding over to the three.
UNC 95 Nevada 70
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Johnson an Babbit are as good a combination of scorers as UNC will see this year. Babbit may be the teams center on paper, but his game is much more similar to Kyle Singler. It still amazes me that Nevada could keep back-to-back McD All-Americans like in Johnson and Babbit in state.
But like THF said, this team appears to be a bit allergic to defense. Don’t be surprised to see both teams in the 80s tonight, with UNC making a run at 100.
Here’s hoping that UNC can exact some revenge on wolfpacks from afar in exchange for the boneheaded, snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory exercise we saw yesterday.
A tighter rotation will be a good thing. The team hasn’t gelled yet and I sense that the majority of mistakes up to this point won’t be repeated after the mix of players is set. So far, they have had moments of being out of control on fast breaks, for example. They’ll start to play more within themselves and it will be nice to see the team (hopefully) gaining cohesiveness.
Is it too much to wish for more physical play from Thompson and Davis?
BTW, a win tonight would be #600 for Roy, by far the fastest to reach said milestone. He ended last year with 64 more wins than any coach has ever had in his first 21 seasons.
I would love to see the heels gel a little better but who would that leave on the bench? I think one of our strengths will be our depth.
dj jock –
“Is it too much to wish for more physical play from Thompson and Davis?”
Very good question. From what we’ve seen so far, the answer is yes. That is bad news for the team. We have height and depth, but not strength and toughness. That’s going to kill us against some of the ACC competition; Dook and Clemson come easily to mind.
Hansbrough delivered more than points and rebounds. He delivered muscle. Opponents knew this. Hansbrough was a clean player, but there was a menacing subtext to him — always the thought that, if you pushed him too far, he could lay waste to you then and there. I think, for example, that for about a second and a-half after Gerald Henderson’s elbow to the nose, Henderson was in danger of leaving the Dean Dome on a slab.
The opposition’s tough guys respected Hansbrough, and part of it was that, in the back of their minds, they feared him. Our present team has no one who inspires respect or fear. This will cost us down the line, and down the line starts this week.
^You are right. It is going to take some time to see if there is anyone on the currnet UNC team who can take up the slack in the middle.
Of course the coaches know all about this and they have been working on it for the last two seasons.
It is hard to replace Hansbrough. I don’t see any of the returning players doing it at this point. Davis has a few moments, but he is inconsistent. Clearly he is motivated. But he is not a dominating player at this point. He doesn’t seem to see this as his role.
Thompson: has had plenty of chances. He appears more concerned with offense. His favorite moves are away from the basket though.
Hopefully they are going to get stronger as a group.
As an aside, Duke won against UCONN by grit and determination. Certainly not brilliant shooting and definitely not by inside play. Less than 30% from the field is awful.
Hansbrough was a clean player, but there was a menacing subtext to him–
See photo of MSU players looking at Tyler before the first meeting. They were in awe of him.
Tonight is our last game before MSU. Hopefully we can get most of the kinks worked out.
Heels by 12.