Except for a stretch in the first ten minutes of the 2nd half, this game was not pretty on a variety of levels. UNC opened up a 24 point lead after halftime on the strength of some efficient offensive execution and some pretty good defense. Outside of that the offense was suspect and late in the 2nd half there were all sorts of maddening breakdowns on defense. Valpo got several open layups and dunks running backdoor cuts to the basket. On top of those add five three pointers in the final eight minutes that allowed the Crusaders to eventually trip a two dozen point lead to nine. Now, it never felt like UNC lost control of the game. The flurry of backdoor layups and three point shots was accompanied by a string of sloppy offensive possessions by the Heels hence the tightening of the game. It should be noted that UNC responded both times Valpo cut it to nine.
The feeling I get watching these Heels on offense is that they are a little uncertain in terms of executing plays with each other. It is quite basically a floor chemistry issue. Look at it this way. Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard have played significant minutes together but not since 2008. Ed Davis and Thompson have played together last season but Ginyard missed all of that. Larry Drew played only sparingly last season as did Tyler Zeller and Will Graves. The other players seeing significant floor time are freshmen. So there is not much in the way of real familiarity between the players on this team and I think that shows up in the general execution. You also have the fact most everyone is getting used to new roles, Thompson and Ginyard included in that. You would hope that the experienced players would be able to make the adjustments but even with them we are seeing high numbers of turnovers. Ginyard and Drew combined for nine of the 14 turnovers committed by UNC. That simply is not going to cut it. For his part Drew did have his best shooting game so far and dished out six assists. Likewise Davis and Zeller joined Thompson in providing copious interior scoring.
On the defensive side, much has been made of the Heels length but that length was neutralized for the most part by a smaller lineup that did an excellent job of spreading the floor and pulling the big men away from the basket. The Heels got caught napping at times, did not rotate at times and allowed a couple of hot shooters light them up from three point range. The Heels recorded only four blocks which really speaks more to the way Valpo ran their offense. Basically there were not many opportunities for blocked shots because Valpo did not take it directly to the basket. Rather they penetrated to draw defenders then used kickouts or cuts to the basket to attain open looks. In short, it may be a weakness for the Heels on defense. Smaller teams could give them fits if they can effectively spread the floor and the Heels have trouble recovering from sliding over to help. In some ways that is surprising with Ginyard roaming the perimeter and Drew’s length. However, John Henson is still trying to grasp what is happening and Will Graves is too slow. Dexter Strickland is quick enough but inexperienced. All of this points to some necessary work to be done on the perimeter defensive area.
This team is young and there is going to be plenty of this to go around. UNC faces the real deal on Thursday in New York against Ohio State who boasts an excellent guard in Evan Turner and also has four other players scoring in double figures. Getting the offense going, while taking care of the basketball is a must as is fine tuning the defense to overcome some of the present shortcoming, especially on the perimeter. Obviously there is no need to panic or even think about doing so. There are definite issues to be addressed and fortunately plenty of time to address, as long as the possibility of losing a few games to ranked opponents does not bother you too much.
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I don’t really think it’s a chemistry issue. I think it’s just lack of experience playing together. This team has plenty of chemistry but experience is our problem. That, and turnovers.
hmmm, me thinks chemistry.
sorry claire. i think what you said is chemistry though.
Okay, after reading the game thread, watching the game and talking to my brother who was at the game, let me say some things first. The negativity is REALLY bugging me…Ha Ha Ha…
First of all, the early season is just that, the early season. Carolina is still trying to figure out which parts fit where, who plays well together so Roy can pare down the lineup when the real season starts in January.
Right now, Carolina is playing 11 guys. By the time the ACC regular season comes around, Roy will pare that down to about a 7-9 man rotation. So some of the things you are seeing now in terms of turnovers and bad play will not be happening once the rotation is pared down.
I very seriously doubt in ACC play we are going to see a lineup on the court of Strickland, McDonald, Wear, Henson and Watts, which for parts of the game was out on the floor together tonight.
Right now the starting lineup is: Drew, Graves, Thompson, Ginyard and Davis. I think the BEST lineup is: Drew, Ginyard, Zeller, Thompson and Davis; but whether Zeller starts or comes off the bench is irrelevant. I also would also like to see Henson in the game with the starters instead of the mish-mash lineups he is usually out there with.
I say all of this to say one, the sky is not falling. It is early season. Two, we played not great, and still scored 88 points and won by 11. Three, you can’t take one early season game and project what Carolina is going to do from there, just like you couldn’t take what happened at Maryland last year and predict Carolina was an early-out in the Tournament.
It’s early… The games are just starting and we haven’t even jelled yet. The season is a marathon, not a sprint. Last year early season we only beat Davidson by 9 points…
So, please step away from the ledge, and see that this is going to be a great team this season that has just a good a chance as anyone else of getting to the Final Four and cutting down the nets in April.
joebill: I thought chemistry was being able to communicate and play along with your team. It isn’t?
Two kinds of chemistry.
One is players getting along.
The other is knowing what your teammate is going to do in any given situation. Example: In the title game there was a play where Ellington started on the right wing, ran under the basket and came around a screen on the left wing. Lawson delivers the ball at just the right moment for Ellington to receive it turn and nail the three. That is the chemistry UNC is missing right now. Basically trusting each other to make plays. Note that I referred to it as on the court chemistry. The other kind is locker room chemistry.
Thanks for clearing that up THF. In that case, it is a chemistry problem, but it should get better with experience.
THF-
Your post-game breakdown was excellent.
If this were last year, and we had just witnessed an eleven-point win over Valpo, the sky would be falling. This year, I’ll take it. I actually turned the game off (satellite radio) when the Heels were up by 23 points (family obligations, not lack of interest), and I was a bit shocked when I tuned back in and they were only up by nine. I just assumed that Valpo hit a high percentage of threes and we had lapses on defense…yep, that was about it. Surprise, surprise.
Now, the Ohio State game is going to be tough. I will be interested to see how the defend outside of trying to stop Turner. How Turner does will provide a snapshot of how John Wall may perform (plus, a few sick passes/dunks/other-worldly moves) against the Heels defense. This year, we will live and die by our perimeter defense. Mark it.
I guess my problem with those who would discount the “negative” observations posted about the team (or lack of it) at this point in the season is that yo, we, too, know that it is early! But that does not negate our observations about the lacks. I have read nothing here from anyone saying that the past three games mean we will be one and done come tourney time. So if these posted opinions/observations are “bugging” anyone, maybe Orkin is a better solution than a dissin’ on us. Just sayin’.
I do like chuckheel’s analysis of the “best” five which puts Zeller in place of Graves. Problem is, of course, the 3-ball, which we will surely and sorely require to be consistently successful. If the Z-man can hit it, let’s see it; if not, then it’s gotta be Graves. Zone is the tone, the bone, and ultimately will mean the Throne this year. A year like none other since the 70′s and before in that respect.
UNC’s lack of perimeter defense is telltale on The Dean System’s installment and refinement prior to the 3-ball. It was developed and perfected before the 3-Line and has not, seems to me, been sufficiently modified to compensate. Opposing coaches know – and tell their players – there are going to be lots of perimeter shot opportunities against Carolina. This is not new. What is new is Carolina’s Big Interior and the Zone that it attracts.
Is Roy’s tactical basketball savvy & creativity equal to his demonstrated superior recruiting skills? That is the question.
Mastery at acquiring superlative talent, in quantity, puts the onus on the Game Intellect/Coaching shoulder. It is a kind of booby prize.
New York, New York. If you can make it there…
Go Tarheels!
I don’t think it is chemistry, it seems they have most of the bigs being asked to do things they have never done before. That is just growing pains. A few points of concern against teams with some size or experienced three guard lineups will give the Heels the blues. Another problem that may be fixed by seasons end is the Heels ability to control the tempo, Valpo stayed with the plan to run their offense to make the Heels work on defense (goes back to guys playing new positions and roles). Hopefully, a low post threat will emerge, lots of wide open jumpers from the high post but nothing from pounding it down low. A few to many forced entry passes to the low post. Perimeter defense will improve but once again all the new positions and roles guys just do not look comfortable. Until a reliable shooter emerges it going to sagging defenses and zones until that is fixed. But, the next five games will tell quite a bit about this season to see which guys step up and adjust to this level of basketball.
we just won the NCAA Championship and we have a ton of talent coming through for years.
i’m not worried about a thing right now.
If this team progresses correctly they should be the odds on favorite to win it all in year three of this freshman class.
BreatheIfYouHateDook,
All the stuff you are saying about Carolina’s lack of “D” on the three-point shooters has been said ad nauseum ever since the 3-ball was introduced and I’m 40, so I go back before the 3 ball.
But, is what everyone says about it really true??? Tarheelblue.com ran an article, last year I think, which put down in black and white that the 3-ball defense thing is really a myth kind of like the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus.
For every Randolph Childress game, there are numerous others where teams that rely on the 3, die by the three. If Carolina shoots 50+ percent from the floor and makes it free-throws it is going to win 90+ percent of its games.
Would you rather have a team shoot 45-to-50 percent from two against you or 30 percent from 3 land??? I would much rather have guys shooting 21+ footers against me anytime. Are there going to be days, like today, where someone is hot??? Yeah. But that is the exception, not the rule.
The far greater problem right now is turnovers, not 3-ball defense. And tonight free throw shooting was a problem. Take away 5 of the turnovers and make 5 more of the free throws and you have your 20+ point win.
And like I said before, those problems, turnovers and free throw shooting will be solved once the rotation is pared down to a manageable 7-9 man rotation.
When Carolina built its lead from 7 to 24 at one point, which lineup was out on the floor??? Drew, Ginyard, Thompson, Zeller and Davis… They have the most cohesiveness because they have played together before. Plus, Ginyard and Drew did hit threes during that stretch. Graves shot 2-for-6 from three and his shooting in the first half is what allowed Valpo to get back into the game.
To me, I would take my chances with that lineup of players any day…
The problem is we as fans only look at the three pointers made and the fact Valpo was 12-27. Roy has this stuff charted and knows whether the defense did all it could on those threes or not and will address each situation on game film as needed.
Let’s see, Dean’s System of Perimeter Defense, particularly on the three ball has produced Final Fours in 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2005, 2008 and 2009. And National Championships in 1993, 2005 and 2009. Hmmmmmmm. Seems to be working to me, what am I missing??? Opposing coaches know, tell there players and still lose 80-90 percent of the time…
As for Roy, I think 2005 and 2009 answers that question in spades…The Roy can’t coach schtick isn’t sticking anymore. He knows more about basketball than ANYONE on this blog and probably 90 percent of the coaches in college basketball.
In fact, I think Roy “perfected” Dean’s system if you ask me. His teams play the way Dean’s teams played before mid-90′s when Dean’s team didn’t run as much and played more zone instead of trapping because of depth issues…
I look at when, where, and how three pointers are taken. If teams are getting wide open looks in the rhythm of their offense that is a sign of poor perimeter defense. If a team is shooting wild threes and/or with a hand in their face that is good defense.
In reference to perimeter defense, I just like to see shots contested. Obviously the percentage on the shot dropping in goes up if there’s a wide open look, and goes down if it’s contested. I think that’s Roy’s mentaility also; if they’re going to take a lot of three point attempts, make them earn it by at least getting a hand up.
Court chemistry will come with more playing time and with the rotations/groupings Roy feels most comfortable with. A large part of defense when you play a team that runs a lot of backdoor cuts is communication on calling out screens and knowing if you need to switch on a guy (something that UNC rarely does) or if you can hedge and get back on your guy after the screen takes place. Knowing how each player reacts and handles those and getting comfortable with it will only come with time and experience. Just wanted to throw that our there as an example.
I didn’t get to see the game tonight and it sounds like there’s a bit of frustration. We’re going to have that a few times this year. But I can tell you that defensively, I already like what I see so far from this group. I think they’re already ahead in that category from the past two or three seasons, and it’s only going to get better.
Listening to the comments from Ginyard and Drew after the game tell something about how things are now. Drew saw no leadup problems; Ginyard thought the team was not sharp. I am sure he was not shy before and after the game about this as well.
Just like the defense was a focus issue last year, concentration and execution may be this time.
But it is still very early. There is plenty of time for progress. It is nice to see the veterans playing well.
Duke is a team that has tried to live on 3 point shooting. It hasn’t been consistent. Speed and simple plays make sense if you have the personnel to execute. So there is plenty of time to improve those aspects of the team. It would be nice to see every category in perfect shape now.
But this is the real world.
What will happen is Ginyard, Thompson and the coaches will clue in the team one way or another about what it is going to take to make it this year.
Then we will get to see if they can do it.
Nice points, chuckheel. I can sense you’re game.
“…the 3-ball defense thing is really a myth kind of like the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus.” The Bunny and Santa leave something good behind. The rap on lack of 3-D (or 2-D before it) is about not leaving anything good behind. Alas, the metaphor puzzles, does not equate.
“If Carolina shoots 50+ percent from the floor and makes its free-throws it is going to win 90+ percent of its games.” Dean taught us all! Undeniable, proven-in-spades strategy. That 50% is based, according to Coach Smith, on a highest-percentage strategy, that is shooting the ball from the closest position to the basket. If the interior is closed off, say via a zone defense, then the 50% must come from the lesser-percentage areas…and that increases with the distance from the basket. Guess what we are faced with this year? Could it be Just That? To cut to the chase: the 50% ain’t gonna come from the chippies down under, no Hansbrough, dood. It’s gotta come from the mid- and 3-point range. Roy knows this, ergo Graves. Although I see Zeller as the best b-ball Savvy on the team and agree with your best five selection.
“But that is the exception, not the rule.” Which is referring to the distance-from-the-basket equation, this time defensively. The assburn this year is that the “exception” may hemorrhage to be the “rule.” If we cannot rely on the interior bigs to get the ball due to zone, we have to hit the mid and 3. Conversely and equally, because we have a big interior defense (assuming they consistently get back) we have no alternative but to deny the 3 – as never before – to the opponent. Valpo’s coach had the right game plan; now we’ll face competition that can execute it.
Would you consider these things… as this assemblage is very different from past editions?
BreatheIfYouHateDook,
Tonight, Thompson, Davis and Zeller each scored in double figures against zone and the team shot 53 percent from the floor for the game and 58 percent from the floor in the second half.
Tonight’s two best 3-point shooters for us, percentage wise, were Drew and Ginyard. Drew was 3-for-5 and Ginyard was 1-for-2.
If you read the post game comments, you’ll see that this year’s bigs are different from all the other bigs we’ve had at Carolina, in that they are face the basket interior players, not back to basket interiors a la Hansbrough.
So, in other words, facing the basket they can bust a zone inside, instead of relying on Hansbrough to dish it back outside or attempt a shot and get fouled.
Other than tonight, Carolina’s perimeter defense has been awesome. Tonight, admittedly there were some communication problems. Roy said some of those were his fault, particularly the 3 Valpo hit before the half, because he told Strickland to double and forgot Zeller was already out there doubling which left the man wide open.
Again, I don’t see this game being indicative of serious problem, just a one-night aberration.
Santa Claus and Easter Bunny were used because they don’t exist, just like tarheelblue.com revealed that the 3-D problem is more a myth than actuality when you look at the numbers.
With the team we have this year, with its rebounding and shot-blocking ability, you need to hit just enough threes to keep the defense honest. That can be accomplished by Drew and Ginyard, and when he gets his legs under him, John Henson.
That’s the other thing people are forgetting, we have yet to truly see Henson working with the starting five. Everytime he comes in, there is a mish-mash lineup, with him basically being the only true offensive option, i.e, the Strickland, Watts, Wear, McDonald, Henson lineup that was in the game tonight…
Like I said, it’s early. But, to say that the perimeter defense sucks based on one game, I think, is wrong. Was it bad at times tonight??? Yeah… AND WE STILL WON, by double-figures…
Also, I think Valpo’s comeback tonight had more to do with Roy tweaking the lineups and taking out and bringing in players. Roy is still trying to find out who his core of 7-9 players is going to be and which combos he can bring in to provide spurts of either offense and defense. Once the core group is set, a lot of what was seen tonight is not going to happen on a consistent basis…
Well, when we get down to our rotation who are we sitting out? I think the minutes may decrease for maybe McDonald but having the ability to run in fresh bodies is a huge advantage.
Roy will have everyone rolling come tournament time. We are going to take some bumps and bruises in the next 5 games and in the ACC as well. Get ready for it. Were a young team. For us fans that doesn’t mean we will take it any easier but luckily for us this wonderful forum is here for us to let it out. Someone above said it best in look at out three years from now. Were going to be a tough out the next two to three years.
I am new to this site so bear with me. I think we will be ok when the freshmen step up. I watched the game and afterward reviewed the stats. Our returning players shot 59% from the field, our freshmen shot 46%. Our returning players shot 78% from the free throw line and the freshmen shot 0% (0-6). Yes our perimeter defense is not up to par & I think that will hurt us against our arch rival later in the season. Those who live by the 3 die by the 3 unless the 3′s go in LOL. I think we play the toughest schedule in the nation this year & yes we will lose a few of those tough games. But it will help us at years end. Better than playing a patsy schedule like Dook or Clemson, get all those wins early & sit at home and watch the championship game at years in on the couch.
Nice post, good comments all around. ^I like that paint job and the simple stats – obviously the ft% has to increase for the freshmen, this is just pressure and bid stage issues. I wasn’t able to see the game and I didn’t notice any comments regarding Roy, leaving them in to learn a lesson as we have seen over the last three seasons which would generally indicate to me that he’s testing players and lineups as we would expect. Crossed arms and a lack of fire by Roy has been a sign of “I told what you needed to do, now you can figure it out on the court – oh and in practice later”. Roy knows what he’s doing and I think the early season start has him doing in the spotlight and I can tell he doesn’t enjoy that very much. It is hard to tell where anyone is at this point but the chemistry is valid – what will I do when…X. Lawson & Ellington seemed to share the same mind sometimes, perspective is hard to gain when you are looking through last seasons glasses.
Either way, it will be interesting to see the Ohio State game this week. It’s hard for all of us to adapt to a team that has changed so radically. Outside of the ACC games I just want to beat Kentucky, a tall order to be sure.
Go Heels.
“Yes our perimeter defense is not up to par & I think that will hurt us against our arch rival later in the season.”
Not the same Duke team as in the past; very limited on the perimeter and no real PG. Duke is actually one of the teams UNC matches up well with.
“Also, I think Valpo’s comeback tonight had more to do with Roy tweaking the lineups and taking out and bringing in players.”
A lack of focus and effort were the reason for the comeback, don’t see how Roy “tweaking the lineups” was the driving factor in that result. So the lineup changed caused the “experienced and veteran” Marcus Ginyard to go brain dead and have 3 lazy passes picked off or caused Drew to force the ball into the middle of the zone on back to back occasions? Ginyard was so awful in that stretch that Roy didn’t play him for the last 5 minutes of a 10 point game. Again the good news is it is a ‘W’ that can be used as a teaching tool, and I’m pretty sure there will be alot of “teaching” at practice tomorrow.
“I just want to beat Kentucky, a tall order to be sure.”
Let’s not forget that Kentucky is every bit as new and inexperienced as UNC is. They have just as far to go to be elite as UNC does, an opinion that has already been expressed by several writers. That is a game that could go in any direction,
I wasn’t really happy with the overall effort in the game, but in the big picture it looks like there were a lot of positive things to take away. If there were 14 turnovers in the game and 9 of them came from Drew2 and Ginyard, that means the freshman didn’t make a lot of them. I’m not worried about Ginyard with those turnovers, he’s never been a high turnover guy before. Drew is still an enigma, from the standpoint of turnovers, so that bears watching. I said this during the game, but to me Strickland looked a bit more comfortable handling the ball and just being on the court in general. He appears to be improving at a pretty fast clip. Henson looked the best that he’s looked so far. Obviously Henson specifically, and the team as a whole, have to shoot free throws better, but I’m not ready to look at this game as anything more than an aberration in that regard yet. Aside from maybe a couple from Deon,the players don’t appear to be forcing shots, which is a big deal to me on a team this young. The turnovers, while sloppy, seemed like they were generally made trying to make the extra pass. I of course could be wrong, but I have a hard time thinking that the problems execution wise were the result of much more than inexperience, undeveloped on court chemistry, bigs uncomfortable closing out on perimeter shooters and an odd match-up that’s hard for the team to prepare for. The lack of effort doesn’t bother me yet, because they seemed to be trying hard in the first two games, and I’m confident in Roy’s ability to light a fire under them.
C. Michael, I couldn’t agree with you more. Of the games against OSU, MSU, UT, and UK, I feel best about the game against Kentucky. They’re the only one of those teams with less experience than us. I don’t expect them to be particularly impressive early in the season.
One thing that worries me about our team is that we don’t have an obvious go-to guy.
Last year, when we were down a point with five seconds to go, it was clear what to do: Get it to TH inside, or WE outside, or let Lawson drive and see what happens.
What’s the play this year when we’re down a point with five seconds to go?
Rath, I think that’s a question that’s going to be answered as the season goes along. For me that’s one of the questions that I was looking forward to finding out the answer to in this years situation.
Marcus, my turn to return the favor… couldn’t agree more.
Marcus and C.Michael –
Got any ideas based on what we’ve seen so far? I sure don’t. Zeller actually seems to be the best shooter, and will be able to get the ball on account of his height, but I have doubts about his dexterity and mobility (i.e., I think he could get tied up or travel). Deon also has a good shot, but he has never been called upon to do, and has never done, game-on-the-line duties. And we have absolutely no reliable outside shooters.
Help!!!
For now, I’d say go with the hot hand (e.g. Wayne versus Clemson 2 years ago). You’ll remember, he was by no means “the guy” his first two years, but he was certainly was feeling it that night. It really took WE and Ty two full years to become the go-to-guys we remember from last year.
BTW, Kentucky is only up 1 with 2 minutes to go against Miami (OH)!!
Overtime!! UK and Miami (OH) tied at 70…
Or not… John Wall with a layup with 1 second on the clock. Damn.
If I had to guess at the moment, if we need two it would be Deon. He seems to be the player most consistently stepping up. If we need three, uh… give it to Deon and hope he gets fouled? Actually I would guess it would be the other senior, Ginyard, at this point. Could be subject to change based on who emerges. I feel pretty confident that as the pecking order and rotation get settled it’s going to work itself out eventually as it did in 2006. I don’t feel like it’s the most important concern right now.
I’d also like to point out that Duke started 4 forwards and Scheyer last night. Talk about a weak backcourt. Also, Singler and Scheyer played 36 and 37 minutes, respectively… and the have another game tonight!
Yeah, they are going to be fresh come March…
And how did the Plumlee brothers look? Good enough to back up all the talk about them? (doubts it…)
Miles actually looked pretty good. 10 points (4-5 FG) and 6 rebounds in 24 minutes. Mason is out indefinitely with a broken.
Ryan Kelly looked pretty bad, 0-4 form the field in 17 minutes.
I can understand K playing Scheyer all these minutes in the first two games with Nolan Smith being suspended. You could argue that he’ll lessen his minutes when he has a third guard to share minutes with. But it makes absolutely no sense to play Singler all these minutes in blowouts when they have plenty of forwards. I’m not complaining about it personally, but you have to wonder if K will ever figure out that it’s more important for his players to be fresh in Feb-Mar than to pile up impressive stats in early season games.
Agreed, though I still think he’s taking an enormous risk with Scheyer. Given Duke’s lake of depth in the backcourt, one could make a reasonable argument that he is the most important player in the ACC. If he goes down, Duke is sunk.
True, it is an injury risk I suppose, even if you plan to lower his minutes with Smith back. I have my doubts about his minutes dropping even with Smith back, given K’s history and how he’s playing Singler.
Getting back to UNC, I just added up the numbers and since the 2004-05 season, UNC is 67-4 in non-conference play! If they can win Thursday and Friday, then they will have gone 3 calendar years without losing a non-conference game. The last time UNC lost in the non-conference was November 22, 2006, to Gonzaga in, ironically, New York City. Since then, they have won 43 in a row. What a run!