Let me first say that UNC did play this game minus two starters. Should they still have won the game? Yes, but missing your perimeter defensive stopper and a 6-6 small forward who can shoot, we shouldn’t pretend that not having those two players is a minor point. In a game that saw Charleston hit 13 three pointers including some clutch shots from a player apparently no one could stop, I am willing to bet Marcus Ginyard playing would have mattered. Will Graves brings a different dynamic to the small forward slot in terms of perimeter shooting. UNC needed both at times and they were not there in the players left behind.
That being said, UNC still should have won the game. The part of this that really bugs me is the same thing we have seen against Syracuse, Texas, Kentucky and even Albany. It is the penchant of this team to go to sleep and then wake up to find themselves in an untenable situation, scramble like made hoping they can claw back into it and then fall short. UNC gave up a 12-1 run to blow an 11 point lead over the final four minutes then wet the bed in overtime. I probably could have lived with the loss a little more given the personnel issues had it stayed nip and tuck with UNC losing a close game. For the Heels to go up 11 it says they were perfectly capable of beating this team, if they choose to focus, play smart and execute. The Heels didn’t and the results are exactly what they deserved.
Answers? I don’t have any. I do know that fans and possibly the players wrapped themselves in this nice security blanket that UNC only had losses to top ten caliber teams. That promptly flew out the window some time after 9 PM this evening. Now UNC has seen their mortality extends beyond being outmatched by higher caliber teams. The flaws run deep and could very well be fatal to the point that UNC might not make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Certainly the first step is getting everyone healthy and on the same page. Beyond that I am not sure you can fix inexperience and flat out unintelligent basketball decisions made on a consistent basis.
The issue from a fan perspective is the fact this team was overrated at the start of the season. The polls corrected for the way things went in 2006 where Roy worked a young team into a 2nd place ACC finisher. By logic it was assumed he would do the same since he had returning players with more experience. This is a different team. For one, there is no Tyler Hansbrough and feel free to bask in the greatness of #50 one more time. While it seems impossible, it is conceivable that even UNC fans underrated his career, especially to what extent he carried that 2006 team. Secondary to that is something Bomani Jones and Joe Ovies discussed on Twitter and that is the leadership of David Noel. Obviously, it meant more than we could imagine because as much as I love Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson, I don’t think they are getting it done. In 2006, Roy Williams said more than once how much the players bought into what he and his coaching staff told them. They listened to the coaches. This season it is clear that is not the case. Roy has said so himself. Based on the product we see on the court either Roy sucks coaching them or they are not heeding the instruction.
Not to be cliche but it is what it is. It will either get better or it won’t. UNC has some flaws and I am not sure there are immediate solutions to those flaws. They lack a go to scorer. The inside game for all its talent lacks a physical/aggressive nature to it. And for all the talk about the defense being an asset in the preseason on the premise they would block more shots I am beginning to think the defense is a liability of sorts. It certainly was tonight given the open looks Charleston got and the Keystone Kops hijinks when UNC players tried to switch. There is plenty to be worried about but given there might not easy answer this season the best advice is to just roll with it. Maybe it will turn out okay or maybe this will be a full blown development year. Either way, excessive griping ain’t going to change it only piss you off more. And life is too short for that.
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O-kay. I am not usually a fan of changing starting line-ups in fear of messing with any players confidence but maybe for one game just start all the freshmen and see how they do. That would shake things up and maybe reignite this team with some urgency to WIN. I am also not a coach, just a tried and true baby blue fan for life!
Since we just started a new thread, let me carry this over from the Game Thread. In some ways it uncannily resembles THF’s analysis:
Road or no road, it’s inconceivable that we would lose a game like this if we had just one leader with Hansbrough’s fire. Not his strength or talent; just his fire.
I don’t want to be misunderstood in what I’m about to say, but I find this team hard to root for. There’s no one personality on it who seems to stand out, and so often it seems like they just have no real idea what they’re doing. Of course I pull for them; indeed I’m like a man stranded in the dessert with no water in the stretches when we don’t have a game. Still, as long as I’m in complaint mode, I’ll also confess I’m not too thrilled with Roy just now. He doesn’t know who should be in the game and seems to substitute nearly at random. He lets his temper show more than a person of his stature ought to, and he ominoulsy speaks of practices at which, it now seems clear, his team learns very little.
Finally, I don’t think it makes a whole lot of difference if they look like they’re having fun. TH did not often display a “fun” side. He displayed a business side, and business is what got done. Best for our current team to learn this lesson.
I’m not worried at all about the offense–I will enjoy the ride watching these guys develop. Defense is another matter entirely. Marcus is not a stopper, and I’m not sure he ever really has been. Ty was the closest thing to that we’ve had (when he decided to play). I wouldn’t trade Roy for anyone, but it’s quite possible to be a HOF Coach and have some blind spots. John Fox is probably one of the best NFL coaches around (look at the salvage job he’s done missing Davis/Keeme/Gross, and now Smith & De), but his stubborn refusal to see Jake for what he is has short-changed his own legacy, not to mention other stuff.
http://www.fromthebaseline.com/blogs/1374-dantoni-making-improvements-with-defense-in-mind
At this point, the focus should be in making the tournament. That isn’t a given. This team had looked terrible since the msu game.
I thought Davis finally took it to the hole with some umph. This was just the night for Charleston. They had the ‘want to’ fo sure. I watched them play against ETSU here in Johnson City (ETSU won) and I am not sure where the heck they got this new team. Ha! It sure helps to play this game at home I think for them.
I was also glad McDonald got some shots to go down; perhaps that will help with confidence. I wasn’t pleased to see Ed and John get their shot blocked so much. But it is indeed a process and it only counts in March. I am sure that at some point (perhaps next season) we will look back at the evolution of this team and where they have came from. I know I have evolved watching games at least my wife says so…I wasn’t all worked up and was actually laughing some afterwards. Still much work to do and I KNOW THEY WILL GET IT DONE!
One game does not a season make.
Yes, we looked terrible. I really didn’t like the coaching decision to switch screens, and it really cost us down the stretch in regulation and especially in OT.
Our bigs needed to finish one freakin’ play down the stretch and we escape with the win.
Strickland needed to understand at the end of OT to either get a quick 2 or get a 3, not wait and then miss the 2. Unforgivable, even for a freshman.
With all this said, I’m not ready to panic or say this will be a developmental year. Let’s get into the meat of the ACC sked and see what happens. We have some major flaws and really lack a team personality, but we’re very deep, have some great players up front and I think we’ll come around. I can see this being the type of team to struggle the next few weeks, turn it around and win the ACC Tourney and head to the NCAAs on an uptick.
Just remember, it’s just one game.
This team has no heart. I’m with Rathskellar – it’s been hard for me to root for these guys. I don’t see anyone showing any emotion, good or bad, and damn little hustle.
The biggest issue is that they seem to be really failing with the basics. The passing is incredibly bad. I don’t recall seeing a team with such poor passing. And that’s not just the guards, the front line passing may be the worst. And is there a reward being given for NOT boxing out on rebounds? It’s hard to believe it could be that bad accidentally.
It’s frustrating because this team has so much potential. Get some fire, guys! I’m looking for someone to pull for!
Tough place to play against a team with everything to gain and nothing to lose. Our guards were thoroughly out-played. We couldn’t hit an elephant in the butt with a howitzer from the perimeter. We constantly helped off-of on defense and left the 3-point line open and paid dearly. The freshman were tentative and overwhelmed in this environment. They have no clue how to handle late game situations. Other than that it wasn’t so bad. Actually about what you’d expect from a team were the parts are better than the sum of the product at this point. All is not lost but our expectations should be realistic. We’ll be competitve most nights and lay eggs on some others. The light may come or it may not. Either way this is our team and we’ll go as far as they take us. The Sweet 16 would be a goal but not an expectation. Take heart; all is not lost!
From Deon, Marcus, T.P. and Will “Say wat u want. I believe in my 15 brothers…………..”
I am done here. I have cried my tears (and quite a lot of them) and I have thrown things (my poor textbooks…) and I’m done. But damn, I’m gonna get some crap from State fans tomorrow.
State fans?? what in the world do they have to talk about. please.
CofC wouldve beaten State easily tonight.
I agree fully with rathskellar68, as I’m not permitted any personal expression.
hear hear, rat.
HTTE, you know State fans. Any Carolina loss is like a State win.
JBB,
Your comment had full blown profanity in it so I deleted it. If there were others of similar ilk then point them out and I will toss them as well. Or I can make it easy for both us and ban you now.
^ohhh. i was about to ask.
only dadgummits! cmon, JBB, keep it cool and stay with us.
yeah, we cant do full blown.
Okay let me clarify. I usually let these slide:
damn
hell
******
I will not allow s-bombs, f-bombs and ones on that level.
Pretty epic collapse tonight. Not sure where I’d rank it. The Georgetown collapse in ’07 was painful (it was post season after all) but it was only 10 points in 10 minutes (not counting OT) — plus Georgetown was a #2 seed. Tonight’s loss is not as devastating, but it is more embarrassing. Outscored 12-1 in final four minutes by a team barely ranked in the Top 200 RPI. The only comparable collapse might be FSU at ’04… That was a 24 point lead in regulation which was lost in overtime. One thing’s for sure: if you can force overtime against a Roy Williams coached team, you’ve got a good frickin chance of winning it.
uncgirl –
Don’t throw the textbooks. They cost too much.
rath, I didn’t remember that until the biggest one hit the wall across from where I was standing…
TarHeelInMinny –
“One game does not a season make.”
No question about that. But 15 games does half a season make, and that’s where we are. I think there were about three halves in those 15 games where we looked really good. Most of the time we look acceptably good for a developing team. Tonight, and too often over the last eight weeks, we looked outclassed.
There was disappointment but no disgrace in the games we lost in December. But this was different. CoC is not a top five team; indeed, as briarcliff notes, it’s barely in the top two hundred. They sure looked better than that to me, but still, there is no realistic choice but to be worried about where our team is right now. This is no way to prepare for the ACC season.
I don’t share the concern that we need to worry about making the NCAAT, but there is a legitimate question whether we’re going to win half our conference schedule.
Has anyone got a time machine that can get me back to last season?
Every team we play will bring their A game to us. We just have to be the A and not the B.
First, just want to thank THF for the site…it’s a great channel to vent frustrations and talk Carolina hoops. I don’t get a chance to post very often, but I enjoy reading the comments whenever possible.
I think THF pretty much hit all the important things concerning leadership. It seems some have greatly underestimated David Noel, myself included, and Tyler Hansbrough for that matter. I felt going into the season that Ginyard had the makings of a great leader. He always seemed to be the one talking to the media after tough losses or putting a realistic spin on games and/or plays during his time with TH and the boys. It now seems as though there isn’t a specific team leader as others have pointed out and that seems to be some of the problem. Not having started the ACC season yet, hopefully there will be a chance for someone to step forward. It seems that would make a HUGE difference in solidifying this team, clearly they need a player to transfer the coaches’ messages to the team.
I trust Roy as the coach and teacher of these guys, but his frustration is blatantly apparent. It seems pretty clear to me that they continue to make the same mistakes over and over again. I think most people expect freshmen to make mistakes, but 15 games in, they shouldn’t be making the same mistakes over and over again. The most frustrating thing to me is seeing guys like Deon, Ginyard and Graves make these same mistakes multiple times game after game. They should clearly know better by now having been in the program multiple years. The major one that stood out to me was Deon leaving the guy closest to the basket on an underneath inbounds play twice, once in OT resulting in an uncontested dunk. The worst part about that is he shouldn’t have to be told about it, should be fundamental, basic basketball. I would guess these are the kinds of plays that drive Roy insane.
Obviously the defense is not playing up to its potential. The interior defense is not great and yes, boxing out is clearly a “lost art”, but the perimeter defense, especially guarding the dribbler is very troubling. There will be many a penetrating guard in ACC play and beyond, that does not bode well, based on what we’ve seen thus far.
Like THF said…what next? Roy is in a difficult spot, how do you get these guys to buy in…looks like he may have one of his tougher jobs ahead of him this year.
Just have to remember, National Champs last year, top 4 guys gone, young team in transition, things will continue to get better. Also on a positive note as others have stated, McDonald played a nice game tonight, looked confident in his jumper and made some nice plays on offense.
Again, thanks THF and others, really like reading the blog.
Roy’s coaching down the stretch was not good, Hall of Fame or not. Carolina had a foul to give and inexplicably let CoC shoot a three pointer to tie the game with 3 seconds. You always foul when ahead by three with fewer than ten seconds to play, even if you don’t have a foul to give, but especially if you do. This is simply mathematics; didn’t Roy get accepted to GIT?
Every time there was a time-out down the stretch, UNC seemed to give up an easy lay-up underneath on the throw-in. Coaching?
I honestly got the impression that Williams was leaving the players to their own devices down the stretch, win or lose, to teach them a lesson. If not, I don’t think he has anything to be proud of from this game either.
And to try to say, “oh Ginyard and Graves would have won it for us….:” Um, no. I don’t see a huge amount of desire by either of those guys to even be out on the court.
Hansbrough was out there playing no matter what; Lawson suited up for Duke with a painful foot injury. If Ginyard and Graves want to be out there, then I advise them to get out there because their careers are ending quickly and I am not sure that at this point that either one is much more than a historical footnote in the history of Carolina basketball. Scott Cherry is likely to be remembered more than these guys.
I have to say that in spite of everything, I was happy for Bobby Cremins. He is a good guy and his eminently likeable team played an inspired game and ultimately they deserved to win. Kudos to CoC.
“I honestly got the impression that Williams was leaving the players to their own devices down the stretch, win or lose, to teach them a lesson.”
Not the first time he has done that. NCSU game in 2007 comes to mind. We can debate the good loss thing and maybe it will help. For the record, Roy did take blame in the postgame for mistakes the players made saying he did not do a good job coaching them.
on David Noel:
http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/010210aaa.html
At least he can own up to it because that loss was solely on his shoulders in my opinion. Maybe he should’ve waited until after he was done coaching to publish a book like Dean did.
and here’s some sometimes frustrating inside poop on the game down the stretch…
http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/010410aaa.html
I was playing basketball myself tonight, so I didn’t get to see the game. But when I see stuff flash on my phone (as I’m tracking through ESPN on my cell) telling me that Ed Davis is getting shots blocked, Davis and Tyler Zeller are missing two point layups, and we’re outrebounding Charleston 50-27 at the end of regulation only to give up 12 three’s, I think there’s not only no fire, but there’s no on court chemistry out there.
Addressing the fire issue, as I’ve said before, if it’s not in your personality to act like an idiot on the court (like Joakim Noah, for example) then don’t. I don’t buy into false hype. But if you’re Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, or Deon Thompson, you should be throwing the ball down so hard if someone’s in your way down low you’ll break the defenders’ hands or shatter the glass. Take it up with some authority, for crying out loud!
The chemistry is lacking also; part of what made last year’s team so good for three years is that they all knew where each other were on the court, they knew each other’s roles and responsibilities, and they bought into the system. These guys out here have no clue (at times) where the other guys is, hence the stupid passes. Drew and Strickland can’t decide at times if they need to turn on the speed like Lawson/Felton or try to be a more “traditional” PG who distributes the ball.
Lastly, it seems like these guys aren’t playing to win for some reason; it seems like they’re playing to avoid a royal butt chewing from Roy. I’m not saying Roy is turning into a dictator out there or going Matt Doherty on them, but it seems like they’re playing not to lose instead of playing to win. Maybe that will turn around as they get older and mature, but I think they play with a lot of fear right now.
The only thing we can do is watch, cheer, and support them. I’m nowhere near ready to panic yet, but it seems like the guys need to grow up and toughen up a little first, then the talent will take over.
“I knew (how many team fouls Carolina had),” Drew said. “We should’ve fouled him. Coach said he was screaming to foul him. It’s really hard to hear people. We don’t really work on late game situations.”
Lucas spun this one well in his article but that is a telling, frustrating comment to read.
Is it coaching or players not listening to the coaching? Probably a little of both.
They should have fouled CoC, even if it meant fouling CoC’s best player, even if CoC had been in the double bonus. There really is no excuse. I see coaches do this over and over, but I thought the message had finally gotten through after the Memphis-Kansas National Final.
Any coach who does not foul intentionally in the last ten seconds when his team has a three point lead simply does not deserve to be out there. And if you fear that your players cannot foul without it being an intentional foul(which is often the excuse for not fouling), then teach them. It is not that hard to slap somebody on the wrist, as opposed to grabbing them around the waist or neck.
I think the quote by Drew Too that “it is hard to hear [out there]” is very sad. We need a point guard who knows what to do in these situations because he is a student of basketball. If we have gotten to the point where you have to hear the bench all the time, then that smacks of overcoaching and undercoaching at the same time.
“Has anyone got a time machine that can get me back to last season?”
Well, if I took you back exactly a year ago you would find that UNC had just lost and people were seriously beginning to wonder if UNC (especially Ty Lawson) were terribly overrated…
“They should have fouled CoC, even if it meant fouling CoC’s best player, even if CoC had been in the double bonus. There really is no excuse.”
That’s the Dean Smith influence in Roy. Dean did it once in 1989 against GT (coached by Bobby Cremins, ironically) and it backfired and UNC lost. He never did it again, and I doubt Roy will either.
You’ll note that CoC had a similar 3 point lead with 19 seconds left in OT and also chose not to foul.
“Hansbrough was out there playing no matter what; Lawson suited up for Duke with a painful foot injury.”
First, there is a huge difference between a non-conference game, and Senior Day versus Duke. They are not even comparable. And Ty Lawson missed plenty of other games of lesser importance, to the point that some were (ridiculously) questioning his toughness.
Second, while Hansbrough rarely sat, he also sat 4 games early last year, at least 2 of which were “precautionary” in measure.
Can I say “stink” now? Seriously, I pretty much agree with rathskellar68′s comments. Besides that, I still think these guys are missing something, and I believe they will find it. Maybe the losses and poor play will bring about a change to do whatever it is Roy can’t get them to buy into. But it sure is hard watching all that talent struggle against lesser (on paper) teams.
Let’s hope for a good week of practice.
What if UNC goes 7-9 in conference and finishes 18-13 going into the ACC tournament? Yikes.
TTP^ That was basically going to be my comment(without the yikes). I don’t see how we win more than 7 games in conference this year. I don’t think I’m being kneejerk at all. Were REALLY young, and our player leaders are soft. SO this is the moniker our team will take. Its going to be a tough year to be a Carolina fan.
I guess you had to delete a comment from State fan on here, THF, cause I see State Fan mentioned, but no State fans saying anything. Anywho, tough loss for the Heels. Not as tough as State’s losses to Florida or Arizona, if there is any comfort taken there….
I don’t post much, but come here often because it is civil (usually), and I appreciate the insight most of you have.
Anyways, THIS Carolina team is in a world of hurt come ACC time, with or without Ginyard/Graves. I know some UNC fans don’t won’t to see the light, but no way UNC finishes better than 9-7 in the ACC.
No perimeter game. No leadership. No big time star. No hands to grip the ball. No bigs to take it to the hoop strong. Last, but more importantly, NO HEART! Not from what I’ve seen, that is.
After every heart breaking loss, I just look at Duke’s Final Four drought to make me feel better… 2012 days, 12 hours and 4 minutes….
“no way UNC finishes better than 9-7 in the ACC”
Possible, but the same thing was said about the 2006 team at this point in the season, and it was voiced especially loudly (and with good reason) after UNC went 5-4 in their first 9 ACC games. No one in the world foresaw that UNC team winning their last 7 ACC games, just as no one in the world can foresee what this team will do in the ACC.
Along those same lines, a lot of people thought the 2007 team was going to runaway with the ACC, but they only went 11-5 and finished tied with UVa and only a game ahead of 3 other teams.
I can’t predict the future, otherwise I’d make all Tar Heel faithful rich. However, I think this game was a “wake up call/reality check” that just because you were a McDonalds All-American in high school doesn’t mean you can just show up to win. Everyone brings their “A” game against Carolina.
This serves as an embarrassing loss to these kids, and freshmen or not, they know it’s only going to get tougher. It’s time to buckle down (or past time) and focus on the teachings in practice by Roy and his staff… I’ll even add the upperclassmen in that group.
The toughest part for the team, and fans alike, is the wait in between games… in this case, Sunday.
I agree with THF that the team missed Ginyard and Graves. Wear and Thompson were out on the perimeter trying to guard the 3rd (and sometimes 4th) shooter and Ginyard and Graves would have given a lot more flexibility defensively.
Second guessing Coach Williams with the benefit of hindsight, Zeller should play more than 14 minutes, even though there was no one for him to guard. Let the Cougs match up with us, not the other way around. They only had one big.
Finally, THF is right, we still don’t appreciate Hansbrough enough. Noel may have been a great leader, but the main difference between then and now is the top recruit. Hansbrough kept quiet, clearly worked like crazy, and carried the team. Henson comes in with higher expectations than Hansbrough; seems to have a good attitude, but he’s more laid back and not contributing. That’s going to hamper anyone’s leadership (i.e., Noel wouldn’t have looked so great if he’d switched spots with Ginyard).
It’s business time.
Sorry haven’t had the time to read all the posts, but as I mentioned prior to last nights game I saw this one coming.
If there was supposed to be a learning curve for this team they surely have missed it. I was very optimistic in November and early December that this team would learn from the mistakes that were costing them games early in the season and start to develop better habits by January. This has not been the case and has actually moved in the opposite direction.
Not only is this a horrible shooting team that has issues handling the basketball, but unlike many preseason expectations (including my own) this team is also a terrible defensive and free throw shooting team that now all of a sudden can’t make layups.
The offensive spacing and execution is atrocious, and the perimeter defense is even worse. I’ve stopped counting how many times a Carolina player is so poorly spaced on offense that he can hand the ball to a teammate or how often a Carolina defender will screen his own teammate on the pick and roll because of poor communication or an inability to slide one’s feet effectively.
As THF said, it is what it is, and the reality of the lack of improvement and intelligence of this basketball team hit me in the face during the last 10min of the Albany game like a cold bucket of water. This team is not very good right now and is showing minimal if any improvement since the beginning of December. The roller coaster has started, on nights they play intelligently and make some outside shots they’ll beat some teams in the ACC they shouldn’t, but they will also have awful nights like last night and they’ll lose their fair share of games against teams they should beat.
Delete.
Its official. UNC is mortal. We have rebuilding years just like everyone else, and it is now obvious that this is one of them. I hope that next years group of recruits includes at least one real “floor general”, because that’s what we’re missing. I look at this year’s team and I see a bunch of extremely talented role players who need somebody else to lead them, or need a lot more time for one of the guys we’ve already got to emerge as a leader. I will just remind myself that we won a National Championship last year and help is (hopefully) on the way next year. I still have a lot of hopes for this year, but no real expectations anymore.
i think this team just needs to get kicked in the butt as many times as possible. we may have overshot it thinking they were top 5 preseason as many people predicted, but it is the end of the season that counts. that being said this team does not look like a top 5 team at the end of the season. but we don’t have the luxury of seeing these kids play on the same court together for 3 years in a row, or even two, to know what to expect down the road. the truth is the future is unknown. and i trust that even though coaching mistakes are made and rotations look like guess work at times, roy is investing into these kids development and maturity. it’s too early to be trimming the rotation down now in jeopardy of developing playeres who could really contribute down the stretch. this should be a fun year with the right outlook, and that is that we’re going to be far better than most programs who lose 4 starters to the NBA and are returning the experience level that we returned (only one starter and one bench player who played meaningful minutes). if i look at it through those (maybe rose colored) glasses, then i look at this year as a great time to develop players, let guys mature, and see how far along we can go as a team by the end of the season. no predictions on ACC wins or ncaat runs, but i do think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised in april after (while not a title) a successful season.
william wrote:
“They should have fouled CoC, even if it meant fouling CoC’s best player, even if CoC had been in the double bonus. There really is no excuse.”
C. Michael wrote:
“That’s the Dean Smith influence in Roy. Dean did it once in 1989 against GT (coached by Bobby Cremins, ironically) and it backfired and UNC lost. He never did it again, and I doubt Roy will either.”
I agree with C. Michael that the ’89 debacle probably is the reason Roy doesn’t do it. He saw how badly Dean was burned and it influenced him — and many other coaches I’m sure. Still, that doesn’t mean Dean made the wrong call in ’89. Yes, it didn’t work in that case, but it works way more than it doesn’t. william is correct: we should have fouled CofC in that situation.
Back to DES and ’89, it’s hard for me to believe that Dean being the mathematical genius that he was would be so spooked by that one bad result (and it was bad!) that he would never try it again. I have no recollection of him ever speaking publicly about the strategy one way or the other… Maybe he really was really spooked by that one bad result, or maybe he never really had another opportunity to try it? He did only coach for another 8 seasons.. I don’t know, but I’d be interested to hear if anyone knows or has a theory.
BTW, here’s video of the ’89 game in question: http://bit.ly/7bRjgA
“In fact, it’s hard for me to believe that DES being the mathematical genius that he was would be so spooked by that one bad result (and it was bad!) that he would never try it again.”
I think we can all agree that if you are up 3 with less than 10 s to go, then your odds of winning the game in regulation are pretty good (probably better than 80%), regardless of what strategy is used (foul v. no foul). Since it is hard (impossible?) to come up with real numbers I will just broad stroke it, but if anyone knows of real numbers that can be played with, I’d love to get my hands on them…
Option 1: Don’t foul.
In this option there is a very good chance you will win, a small chance that you will be tied, and ZERO chance that you will lose in regulation.
Option 2: Foul.
In this option there is still a very good chance you will win, a smaller chance that you will be tied, but there is now a very small, but still non-zero chance that you will lose in regulation (i.e. 1989 versus GT or a 4 point play).
I don’t know about Roy, DES, or most of the other coaches who choose not to foul, but my thinking is this: if you believe you are the better team, then you take your chances in overtime. Don’t give a team that has no chance to win a slight chance.
However the situation in this game is not the same as 1989. UNC has two fouls to give. In 1993 Dean said that had Webber not called timeout they were going to use the three remaining fouls they had to give to keep Michigan from getting a shot up. In this case UNC should have fouled the CofC player before he pulled up to shoot and forced an inbounds pass. Once the ball came in, assuming they could force them to burn time, then foul again. At that point enough time may have expired to force CofC into a bad shot. Then again the shot he took was a bad shot and well defended so maybe it was not meant to be.
“I don’t know about Roy, DES, or most of the other coaches who choose not to foul, but my thinking is this: if you believe you are the better team, then you take your chances in overtime. Don’t give a team that has no chance to win a slight chance.”
First, I disagree with your assertion that DES ever chose not to foul. The evidence suggests otherwise (see: ’89 at GT, and THF’s example above from ’93 title game). As far as why coaches choose not to foul, I believe they are living in fear of a catastrophic result which is extremely unlikely to occur. Many are risk averse by nature, and others feel that it takes away from the game — even if they still believe it is strategically the best option for winning.
Secondly, I don’t like taking any chances in OT even if I do have the better team, because there’s something to be said for having another team come from behind to force OT on you. That’s a momentum play, and one I’d rather avoid — especially if I’m on the road . (I’d love to see stats on win-loss % in OT based on which team came from behind to force OT).
Finally, it can’t be overlooked that Roy Williams is 3-7 in OT games at UNC. It’s hard to look at those numbers and think they aren’t statistically significant. And if you break down the specifics of each of those OT losses, I think the numbers are even more damning. Bottom line: for whatever reason, Roy is a terrible OT coach.
briarcliff,
Bad wording on my part, didn’t mean to imply they never chose to foul.
UNC’s performance in OT under Roy sort of makes sense. Under Roy, UNC has been (much) more talented than most of their opponents. In most cases, for the game to have been tied at the end of regulation, at least one of two things had to happen: UNC played poorly and/or the opponent played very well. Given that, it is not surprising that UNC’s record is terrible in OT. I’d be curious to see what the OT win pcts. of other top teams are. They may not be 30%, but I be shocked if they were anything close to their historical winning percentage.
This also argues against taking your chances in OT, thus shifting the argument against fouling* a tad.
*Completely agree that fouling when you have fouls to give is the right move.
Interesting take on Roy’s OT performance; I’d like to see more data myself. Six of the seven OT losses came against lower-ranked teams (No. 1 Duke ’04 was only exception). All three OT wins came against lower-ranked teams as well. Not sure what all that means other than it’s hard to play teams ranked higher than UNC the last few years. Also, I concede those higher rankings don’t necessarily mean UNC was favored to win those games (I don’t have point spread info).
Five of those seven OT losses came after UNC blew big leads and/or gave up last second shots in regulation:
- 2004 FSU: No. 7 UNC blows 24-point lead, allows 3 to force OT, outscored 12-3 in OT
- 2007 Va Tech: No. 4 UNC leads most of 2nd half at home, but Hokies rally to force OT; Heels score just one FG in OT
- 2007 Georgetown: UNC is outscored 31-9 in final 11 mins of game, including 15-3 in OT
- 2009 @ Maryland: No. 3 UNC blows 16-point 2nd half lead; including 9-0 run in final 98 secs; loses in OT.
- 2010 @ Charleston: No. 9 UNC is outscored 12-1 in last 4 mins; allows 3-pointer to force OT w/ fouls to give.
With exception of 2 seed Georgetown in NCAA Tournament, all of these OT losses were to unranked opponents.
btw, not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Roy apparently was trying to instruct the team to foul at the end of regulation, but his instructions (yelled from the bench) went unheard with all the crowd noise.
There is nothing wrong with being mortal. There is surely something wrong with failing to have achieved anything close to your potential halfway into the season; with making the same elementary mistakes over and over; with roulette substitutions; and with playing dumb.
More and more I am starting to see the phrase “fun season” — a bad sign right there, because that is actually a euphemism for “heartburn season” or “game-flubbing season.”
I’m all for the excitement of the game. I know we’re not going to be what we were last year. But I cannot be real pleased about the prospect of losing to the likes of the College of Charleston, much less the way we did it, i.e., by an end-of-the-game swoon.
That is not a “fun season.” It’s a marker in a miserable season. We’re not where we should be with a group this talented. Instead we’re in trouble. Can you imagine what our league rivals will be thinking when they see our performance last night? What ACC coach isn’t going to tell his team before a game with us: “Do you guys think you’re better than the College of Charleston? Good. Go out and prove it.”
And if nothing changes, they will.
Time for a shake-up.
Back to the ncaat. If we go 8-8 in the acc, we’d be 19-12. That isn’t won’t get us in without at least making the acc title game. Thebsame
probably applies to a 9-7 acc record, though that’s a closer call.
We shall see if this game was an abberation