Assuming UNC is done with the valley and only time will tell that for sure, the Heels still have a pretty tough mountain to climb. UNC sits at 2-3 in the ACC and 13-7 overall. To get to twenty wins means they would have to go 7-4 down the stretch and out the Heels at 9-7 in the ACC. With two homes losses means the Heels are going to have to commit grand larceny a few times over the final month plus of the regular season. The N&O broke down UNC’s remaining schedule.
Must win these: vs. Virginia (on Sunday) vs. N.C. State (Feb. 13), at Boston College (Feb. 20); vs. Florida State (Feb. 24), vs. Miami (March 2).
Virginia and Miami, despite good starts, have shown why they were picked to finish near the bottom of the league in recent performances.
Even though it beat Clemson on Tuesday, Boston College hasn’t proven that its veterans know how to play together consistently.
The rematch with N.C. State, plus the matchup with FSU, are at home, and the Tar Heels must use their crowd to their advantage — especially since they have already lost two ACC games in the Smith Center.
Challenging, but winnable: at Virginia Tech (Feb. 4), vs. Duke (Feb. 10), at Georgia Tech (Feb. 16); at Wake Forest (Feb. 27).
The Tar Heels have won one ACC road game. Can they win more? That’s the conundrum here, especially against the Yellow Jackets and Demon Deacons, who have claimed wins already this season over the Tar Heels.
Duke, meanwhile, is clearly the better team right now, but it’s an anticipated national rivalry – and emotions will be running high, what with UNC planning to retire Tyler Hansbrough’s jersey at halftime.
Looking for an upset: at Maryland (Feb. 7) and at Duke (March 6).
The Heels have lost two in a row on the Terps’ home court, and Gary Williams is quickly coaching his team into a serious contender to win the ACC. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have won four straight at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but Hansbrough — a big key to that streak — now plays in the NBA.
Some of this is predicated on Ed Davis being completely healthy, Roy Williams figuring out that Larry Drew and Dexter Strickland should be on the court 30 minutes per game together and Tyler Zeller coming back by the game in Atlanta vs Georgia Tech. Unfortunately, there are four road games in particular which I think are going to be extremely tough to win. UNC never plays well at Maryland or Georgia Tech. The 2007-09 teams were 0-2 at Maryland and also lost at home to the Terps in 2008. Going into Cameron with a team that has not been strong on the road will be equally tough and I still think the matchup with Wake Forest is not the best. On the bright side UNC has a little time to gel before hitting all of those games save the one at Maryland. With those four being so tough it means winning in Blacksburg and beating Duke at home are must wins essentially as are…well…the other five games. In short, there is no margin of error left.
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It certainly is going to be tough road consider the rest of the schedule and losses to this point. The good thing is that now expectations are lower than what they were earlier this season.
It is going to be tough to win either Duke game and the Maryland game will be near impossible but luckily UNC is “UNC” and we still have the ACC tourney to tack on some extra respect and “W’s” for the voters.
Another note I red several people on this blog mentioning Zeller coming back like he “may” be some sort of savor. I actually think he will hurt them coming back taking minutes from some of the other guys. I admire the kid for coming in last year and not taking a redshirt but at the same time from a talent stand point his is behind several guys in that lineup in terms of ability.
In my opinion taking 15mins a game from Ginyard and giving them to Strickland would be the perfect medicine to start winning. Although not as quick, his aggressiveness reminds me of Lawson and I loved when other teams would make a run and Lawson would put it back in their face on the very next possession. That is what we need right now and Strickland seems to have it.
Don’t count on Zeller, he will not be a factor. Teams in the ACC have been so hot and cold this year, anything could happen. Home wins are key and losing 2 already has really hurt the Heels. They need to steal at least one of those back against GT or Wake Forest. I agree with the rest, thinking Va Tech will be a tough win. I m scared looking at the rest of the schedule and how the Heels have played but I look to the next game and if they can improve from the last game they will win. Take one game at a time and show improvement. Don’t beat yourself with stupid mistakes. Hopefully someone will step up each game to lead the team.
I would like to see more discussion on the rest of the league and the nation. Like the South Carolina/Kentucky game. That was pretty wild. I like the question sessions from our opponents, keep that comming.
Over the weekend on cable they showed the 1982 game UNC vs Georgia. George had Domenqic(sp)Wilkens. It was fun watching all the great players. I don’t remember Sam Perkins being so skinny. There is hope for Henson.
Franklin, check out Rasheed Wallace in college after, I think its even more surprising:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3tuqcUPPtg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7vJ-8aEwiU&feature=related
Henson will be big if he sticks with and starts producing
I don’t remember Sam Perkins being so skinny. There is hope for Henson.
Sam had no issues then because most of the other players were all tall skinny guys too, so Henson would have been fine comparatively in the 70′s and 80′s. The problem now is that most of the post guys are bulked up.
Sheed probably wasnt ever a guard, like Henson, and he was naturally pretty agressive. Henson would have to learn to mix it up inside. he might, but i doubt we’ll see it this year.
Sam was pretty skinny. heck, eveyone was back in those days. but no one is as skinny as Henson. i believe our PG recruit for next year, Marshall, already weighs more than Henson.
Let’s visit this discussion next Friday. Sitting at 4-3 with continued improvement off of Tuesday night the mountain is not as daunting. Where as 3-4 or 2-5 and the mountain will look like climbing Everest in flip flops.
Because we have never played in the first round of the ACC tourney since expansion, it is easy to forget that that could provide another easy win or two against ACC competition.
I think that 19-14 or 20-14 or 21-14 should probably all get us in.
22-14 will mean we win the tourney.
CoC is leading their league and all of UNC’s other losses were to high quality teams. Few teams will have played five non-conference games against the likes of Syracuse, Ohio State, Michigan State, Kentucky and Texas.
Maryland, for instance, may look good now, but they lost to William and Mary, which is not that different from losing to CoC. Maryland also lacks any good non-conference wins.
Strangely enough, it is UNC which has the most impressive wins out of conference. This is not to diminish the extreme urgency that UNC faced with a road game at NCSU, but at the same time, we are seeing all the idiots in the media (even Pomeroy’s ratings seem out of wack) falling for the idea that schedule strength at the top doesn’t matter.
Marcus will not let us lose at dook. That is not even fathomable.
I don’t quite know what to think when we are looking at quality non-conference losses. Maybe we could just play a few NBA games.
It is interesting that COC are doing well.
Some of the other teams we have lost to though have fallen a bit. Like Texas.
I find it really really hard to see us winning 17 to 18 games and making the tourney. That is a pipe dream. What we need to concern ourselves with is improving game by game and hoping that translates to next year being a pretty good team. I belive this year is a loss (tournament wise). I’ll continue to watch and hope but…..all I can say is GO HEELS.
It is hard to see if one envisions them continuing to play like they have played in some games lately. Why can’t it be just as easy to envision them improving, like the State game, and playing more and more up to their potential? Or do they just not have that potential? To my eyes they certainly do. I just can’t imagine writing off the whole year with 11 games plus the ACCT left. If we improve game by game, the NCAA tournament will take care of itself. It will be a difficult task but I wouldn’t call it a pipe dream.
They looked good, especially in the second half against VPI and NCSU. Some of these other teams that have looked so good early, are fading. I don’t think the NCAA committee bases selections on point differential, on on significant wins, so somebody correct me, if I am wrong. Pomeroy gives extra points for blowing out insignificant opposition, which is making Maryland look like a powerhouse, but who have they really beaten?
There is still somewhat of a mystique about what the selection committee values when it really gets down to deciding between a very few bubble teams. They say that it’s still about wins and losses, but you know they have to be swayed somewhat with “good losses” (I actually hate that term) from a really tough schedule. And although they don’t dismiss the total body of work from a teams’ season, I do believe they give a lot of weight to how a team is playing over the last 10-12 games; they kind of have to allow injury-plagued teams to heal and inexperienced teams to improve, for example .
The part of the process that involves subconciously (even conciously) deferring to a tradtional “glamor” team, one whose presence makes the tournament much more attractive, will generally be denied by the committee and vigorously debated by the public. I don’t doubt this is one of the things that may benefit us, come tournament time , should we reside squarely on the bubble. We still have to take care of a certain amount of business though.