What are you going to do?
By now, it’s a broken record. Opponent shoots lights out, opposing point guard has a career night, missed free throws, crucial turnovers, blown defensive assignments, poor shooting night, long scoring drought during a big opponent’s run, yada yada yada.
Let’s give Maryland credit – they are playing really well. When they are firing on all cylinders, they have a legit shot to win the ACC. Plus, when you make your first five threes – and seven of your first nine, you’re setting the tone for the game. Maryland shot over 50 percent from three and overall, and clearly has Carolina’s number, winning three of the last four against the Heels. And to top it off, nearly 18,000 hearty souls braved Snowmageddon to cheer on the Terps.
As for Carolina, Marcus Ginyard was finally able to crack the scoreboard with a team-high 17 points but it took 13 shots to get there. Deon Thompson added 16 points but only 4 rebounds. Ed Davis had maybe the quietest double-double in recent memory with 10 points and 16 rebounds, but was a complete non-factor in the game despite the numbers.
Poor Larry Drew had maybe his worst game as a Tar Heel, going 0-6 from the floor and 0-2 from the line. He was credited with five assists but four turnovers, and three of those were in the backcourt. The freshmen also performed weakly for the most part, adding to the Heels’ woes. Drew and the five freshmen went a combined 6-25 from the floor and had 10 of Carolina’s 14 turnovers.
And yet, despite Maryland’s stellar play, the Heels looked to be in good shape at the 12:59 mark, having weathered the Terps’ half-opening run and shaving the margin from 13 down to just four points. Of course, Carolina would go over 4 minutes without a field goal and make only two field goals in a nearly nine-minute span. By the time the funk was over, UNC was down 20.
Roy Williams looks like a man who has just done all he can do. The look of resignation/frustration/anger on his face when Ginyard and Graves blew the 2-0n-1 break in the first half says it all. He did call two time-outs during the game but to no avail. You can criticize Roy all you want for Xs and Os and substitutions, but Roy is not the one making bad passes in transition and missing point-blank putbacks.
The Maryland crowd taunted the Heels with chants of “NIT” but at this point, I’m not sure “CBI” would be appropriate. UNC is clearly shell-shocked and even the simplest things seem to take maximum effort at this point. Give Woody Durham credit for the best Carolina play of the night, however – when the “NIT” chant started, Woody said, “well, they should know”.
Still, let’s not make this anything more than it is – UNC continued to show the things that have earned them 10 losses on the season, but this would have been a tough game for any team to win (last year’s team lost at Maryland, too, when the Terps were not as good as they are this year). At this point, all anyone can do go back to work and get ready for the Evil Empire on Wednesday night.
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850, that is exactly what I was thinking and I yanked it from my original post because I have been harping on the recruiting issue a lot already and I didn’t want to read something in there, if it wasn’t.
I have always been interested in the guard issue because I remember Roy saying a few years back that he doesn’t like recruiting “pure” point guards and that his goal is a system where that isn’t necessary. Unfortunately, it is difficult for me to find many examples where UNC has been successful without a great “pure” point guard.
Also, looking at Kansas’s records from the past, Roy has had lulls before, most strikingly, right before the two Final Four appearances with Kansas, where he lost 20 games in 1999 and 2000 and didn’t make it past the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney. So, he has clawed back before, I have no reason to doubt that he has it in him now.
Larry Brown seemed to a couple of very poor coaching years and now seems to have the Bobcats semi on track, so maybe we just need Roy to stop writing books and lecturing on recruiting and game attendance, get tanned, rested and ready and get back in there with the guys who want to compete for UNC in the future–how’s that for positive?
“There are just too many issues with these guys this year to pinpoint any one area, including the HC.”
Agree, so why cherry pick when you are trying to prove a point with benching and playing time. Instead instill confidence in your younger guys by allowing them to play through their mistakes, it’s not like this team is a play or two away from playing winning basketball.
If everyone including the Head Coach is lost, tried everything, and do not know what to do in order to right the ship, then it is by definition a rebuilding year. So let’s treat it as such and let the young players correct their mistakes with actual game action, in order for the learning curve to not be as steep next season. This doesn’t mean to eliminate playing time for the older players (although you could argue some are mailing it in), but it does mean stop acting like every mistake a player makes didn’t just cost you the dadgum game, while other players continue to make similar mistakes.
This is the 2003 season all over again (with less talent); problem was Roy didn’t have to endure it and Doh had no choice but to let the young players play through their mistakes. That team won a Natty two years later; I know Roy sprinkled a little pixie dust too but that 2003 season laid a foundation for the 2005 season.
For example, look at the big guys that Duke have this year. Z and the two brothers have been very inconsistent, especially on offense. The younger Plumlee did break his arm, but he seems to almost break it every game with crazy missed dunks, etc.
Still all three of them provide value by their effort. Who saved Duke’s last win by hauling out to the top of the key at the end of the game to alter a potential game winning 3?
Zoubek.
He lumbers around. But if you watch him, he always tries to be in position. Look at Davis as a contrast. He often lopes down the floor, even when he has to know that delay is hurting his team. As in 16 fast break points yesterday.
I don’t understand that!
“Now I’m really worried.”
Now? That’s what did it?
@William
Don’t be baggin on positive attitude man. When times are this bad the only thing you can do as a “fan” is look for the postives. I would imagine part of the reason why alot of the players are playing badly is they read some of these blogs about how “Horrible” they are and listen to Steve Lavin’s “expert” analysis.
How can you even compare Winning College/Pro Football Championships to Basketball? As long as Roy hauls in top 5 recruiting classes ever year the success will come.
This season is summed up in that the ACC is gaurd heavy and UNC has one of the worst back courts in the league. As for Deon, Ed, and the talented Freshman none of them can create for themselves. Even Hansbrough needed “someone” to pass him the ball in the post.
Seriously, I’ve been worried from the very beginning. My worry started after Vandy smashed us in the preseason scrimmage. When it was announced Roy would have shoulder surgery, I knew we’d be screwed (doubly). Roy’s inexplicable behavior during the Presbyterian game wasn’t really inexplicable at all.
The bad news is that the season is finished. The good news is that it was finished before it even got started. Duke is going to beat us badly on Wednesday night. I only hope hope Roy can take it like a man and not completely flip out in the process. I know the team will be fine with the loss.
@briarcliff. I agree. This team has been overmatched since the opening tip of the year. The talent flat out is not there and now they are playing scared. Roy was yanking guys left and right after each mistake yesterday. I can’t say I blame him because that’s what I would want to do but that doesn’t help foster good play. Wed. night is going to be an absolute mess.
@sc11….great post.
That was why I was trying to come up with something.
I mean 23-10 or whatever, isn’t dreadful but Roy did have a couple of years there where he fell out of the limelight and ended up going out in the 2nd round three years in a row, before the last two Final Fours with Kansas.
Obviously, Ben Howland is having a bad year as well, but it is kind of interesting because you really didn’t see this much in the past, where a Bob Knight or Dean Smith or Denny Crum. i.e., your upper echelon coaches, would have a season like this after so much success.
“I would imagine part of the reason why alot of the players are playing badly is they read some of these blogs about how “Horrible” they are and listen to Steve Lavin’s “expert” analysis.”
If so then those sensitive, weak minded souls shouldn’t be playing major college basketball and would be better off focusing on only their academics because basketball is not a craft that will provide their means in the future.
“This season is summed up in that the ACC is gaurd heavy and UNC has one of the worst back courts in the league. ”
This is the weakest the ACC has been since 2003 (and one of the weakest years of all time), UNC just doesn’t have one of the worst back courts in the league they have arguably the worst team in the league and as a result one of the worst teams in division one basketball.
And being so weak at the guard position still begs the question, did Roy and company just miss on Strickland and McDonald or was investing two scholarships into two average post players (the Wears) instead of more perimeter help a mistake?
52bgj – I don’t complain about Strickland when he struggles, because I expect him to struggle. But I also know that him getting better, and more confident, is a key to UNC being better next year. The same can be said for Henson. Keeping struggling seniors in the game does nothing to position UNC to have a better year next year. Helping a freshmen get more confidence and experience does. And right now, to me, the future takes priority over the present, because … well, realisticly, what can we hope to accomplish this year that is worth mortgaging the future for?
I don’t think you can predict the outcome of Wed night.
The pre-January team was playing much better than of late. Maybe they can get back to that level.
Losing isn’t what bothers me. It is damaging to see poor effort, but I don’t even know what that is anymore.
The worst though is to lose, humiliate your players and fans by silly comments, yanking players unevenly, etc.
I thought Roy Williams comments after the Maryland game were more reasonable. I agree that the players have nothing to say.
well I think LD should have gotten more time last year, and might would be a little further along, but at least Roy’s consistent in that regard. I am however at a loss to explain LD’s ridiculously bad defense yesterday though–that in no way is a Coaching issue. Everybody keeps pointing to the offense and that is a problem (recruiting related too) but this defense is just beyond bewildering.
^Agree on the defense being horrible, but Ginyard and Graves defense were equally as bad as LDII on the perimeter yesterday. LDII is really only in his first year of meaningful action (which isn’t a good excuse), what are excuses for the others?
“I thought Roy Williams comments after the Maryland game were more reasonable.”
@AZACCFan, I agree, but that sort of just shows how low the bar is these days. He might not be as reasonable come Wednesday after getting whipped in his own building by K. And he especially isn’t going to like watching the Carolina fans file out (as is their right) with 5 minutes to go.
Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but as I recall, Coach Smith would only yank a player immediately if he perceived a lack of effort by the player.
If the player, on the other hand, made a turn-over or other mistake, Smith’s practice was essentially never to yank the player right away, lest that embarrass the guy. He would wait a respectable amount of time and then take the player out.
I think this is similar to the issue of calling players out in public, which I also don’t like. I think many of us were bringing up these issues back when UNC was still in the top ten and even in other seasons. I don’t see this as a bandwagon issue or Roy has lost favor issue.
When Roy first came to UNC, his family story and the plight of the team were both very compelling. It might even seem corny now, but the semi-famous SI article from 1997, which was memorialized in a Coke commercial really affected a lot of people. Roy was definitely my favorite coach once Dean retired. The first season was so-so but the second season and third season were magic, but Roy was still new to us.
I knew there was something strange about the way Williams was treating McCants, but you know, times change. Dean would have kept that stuff in-house, but Roy was very public in SI calling out McCants. It worked that season, but it has gotten more tiresome as we go along. Roy’s ways may have worked for 20 years, but then again so have Smith’s.
The ultimate goal is a national championship, but on the other hand, we all know that 11 Final Fours are certainly worth more than 1 title in terms of developing players and a program. So Roy may have had the best overall five year period yet at UNC, but at the same time, you really can’t easily compare across eras or compare building a program to taking over a powerhouse program. Dean’s press conferences generally weren’t all that memorable but I don’t remember him saying during his rare bad moments, “well, I have been doing this for 30 years, and it has always worked before….” He just dealt with what had to be dealt with.
Step 1 is to not embarrass ourselves on Wednesday night.
“Step 1 is to not embarrass ourselves on Wednesday night.”
Yup, And that starts at the top.
Williams: If you don’t enjoy the good times, bad times can kill you
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/unc/story/6985978/
what are excuses for the others?
jmo, but Graves is playing out of position on d.
I still think Marcus’ ankle is giving him problems-actually surprised no one else saw that in the last game. If that’s the case, he gets an A for effort from me.
“you really can’t easily compare across eras or compare building a program to taking over a powerhouse program”
Roy did not take over a powerhouse program, it wasn’t Baylor or Northwestern bad, but it definitely was a far shot from the program in the late 1990′s that was playing in final fours and shelling out first round draft picks on an annual basis. But he did have history and tradition to build upon, but bringing the Roy Williams name to Chapel Hill restored alot of credibility from the get go.
“If you don’t enjoy the good times, the bad times can just kill you,” Williams said.
“The way I’m feeling now I’m wondering if I’m worth anything, wondering what I’m doing. You can’t eat, you can’t sleep and yet just last year you won a national championship which we dream about.”
“Right now we’re about as low as you can possibly be so it’s not much fun enjoying this. I still didn’t get much fun out of the other and right now it’s bad.”
Davis’ close friend Drew heard an earful after the tournament, but none of it was complimentary. Tar Heels fans wondered whether Drew was up to leading the team as point guard, a position played deftly by Ty Lawson the last three seasons.
“If I was watching last season, I’d be saying the same thing,” says Drew, a sophomore. “But I know what I can do. I’m confident in myself.”
Drew averaged 1.4 points and 1.9 assists while playing 9.6 minutes a game. His shooting was alarming: 35.1% from the field, 23.1% on three-pointers and 41.2% on free throws.
“His percentages were not good, which scares you a little bit,” coach Roy Williams says. “He’s got to not only get his numbers up with points and assists but he has to get his percentages up. … Basically I hand him the basketball and say, ‘You’re the motor that makes the team run so you’ve got to go.’ Am I comfortable doing that? Yes. Am I confident doing that? Yes. Am I sure of what’s going to happen? No.”
Therein is the contrast between North Carolina’s imposing front line and its inexperienced backcourt.
The Tar Heels have an abundance of big men as five players are 6-10 or taller. Davis, 6-9 Deon Thompson and 7-0 Tyler Zeller had vital roles in the championship run.
Additionally, John Henson, a 6-10 freshman ranked fifth by Rivals.com, can play on the wing and step into a starting role. Rivals calls him the gem of North Carolina’s recruiting class.
PHOTOS: Highlights from Midnight Madness
“He’s possibly the longest person, as far as wingspan, I’ve ever played against,” Zeller says. “You’ll take a shot, and he’ll stick his arms out and block it without jumping.”
Freshman twins David and Travis Wear, both 6-10, need time for skill development but have impressed teammates with their diligence in the weight room.
All of these players should compensate for the departure of forward Tyler Hansbrough, the school’s career scoring leader who averaged 20.7 points as a senior. Replacing the perimeter scoring of Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Lawson will be much tougher. The Tar Heels lost 94% of their three-point scoring. Overall, 70% of their scoring is gone.
“We have the most depth we’ve ever had in the frontcourt,” Williams says, “and in the backcourt the least depth I’ve ever had. Along with the least depth, the least experience I’ve ever had.”
Says ESPN analyst Jay Bilas: “Anybody who is expecting North Carolina to take a step back is fooling themselves. They won’t be as good as last year. That said, it’s a top-10 team out of the gate. At the end of the year, it will be a top-five.”
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/acc/2009-10-23-north-carolina-preview_N.htm
Dean Smith made it his goal for his press conferences to not be very memorable – and I admire him for it. He didn’t ever want to be the center of attention, and he certainly never wanted negative attention to be drawn on his players. He was a master at giving non answers. Why? So that instead of having to waste time dealing with any fallout/missunderstandings/drama resulting from his press conferences, he could just tell the press “good night” and get back to the job of coaching his team. The man was a genius.
I can sort of understand Roy publicly criticizing an upper classmen, if, in previous years nothing else has worked with the guy. But publicly calling out freshmen can really ruin their confidence – and I think, this year, it has.
Says ESPN analyst Jay Bilas: “Anybody who is expecting North Carolina to take a step back is fooling themselves. They won’t be as good as last year. That said, it’s a top-10 team out of the gate. At the end of the year, it will be a top-five.”
^^ The b*tches set us up!! (referring to media)
“jmo, but Graves is playing out of position on d.
I still think Marcus’ ankle is giving him problems-actually surprised no one else saw that in the last game. If that’s the case, he gets an A for effort from me.”
So playing out of position or maybe still recovering from an injury allows them from being called out for poor defensive performances unlike LDII. Didn’t you just make a post criticizing those who call out Ginyard, but not Strickland for poor play? So I guess you are doing something totally different here with LDII?
^^…Jay Bilas… never trust a Dookie
william,
when Denny Crum, Bobby Knight, and Dean Smith coached in their prime players very rarely left early. If the players left early, they would leave as juniors. I remember when Rex Chapman entered the NBA draft as a sophomore it was a big deal.
It was a powerhouse program in terms of having three top ten players at key positions, and still having the recruiting benefits of its unique relationship with Duke and those two nationally televised games.
People still act as though Roy rescued UNC from 8-20. UNC almost won twenty games the year before Williams got there and they beat Kansas, Maryland and Duke, and I believe, UConn, that year. Gary Williams did indeed, rescue Maryland, and Larry Brown might have rescued Kansas, but Roy took over a team that had been ranked number one in the nation only two seasons earlier and that had made it to the second or third round of the NIT.
“Does that Yahoo article basically imply that Roy did not get the players he wanted this year?”
Pretty sure that refers to people who would have been in the junior and sophomore class. Don’t forget, before signing Davis, Zeller and Drew, UNC went through a significant stretch of rejections (Kevin Love, Iman Shumpert, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jrue Holliday, Delvon Roe), to the point that there was a lot of talk that Roy was beginning to lose his ability to recruit.
Obviously, the next 4 classes have proved otherwise, but it goes to show that recruiting is cyclical, especially so when you bring in 5-6 recruits in back-to-back classes like UNC did in 2005 and 2006. Those classes were great, in that they provided the foundation for arguably the greatest 3-year run in UNC history, but they also created a bit a logjam. The old Catch-22.
Since then, UNC has gone 4, 5, 3, 2 (and maybe 3), which should provide the Heels with more balance throughout the classes moving forward.
heh-just trying to balance out the scales since I have been an LD cheerleader this year.
Players usually left as juniors in the 70′s and 80′s. UNC lost Bob McAdoo, James Worthy and Michael Jordan, and all three times, UNC would have been close to the best in the country if those guys had returned. But I am not sure that is really the complete difference. I think there simply are a lot more excellent players now and with television, more guys are probably willing to go to a Gonzaga or Davidson, instead of sit on the bench at a big power. Swen Nater basically never played at UCLA in the 1970′s and ended up being rookie of the year in the ABA.
If you looked at the rosters of UCLA, UNC or Marquette, which are three that come to mind, in the early to mid-1970′s, it was remarkable just how many great pro’s went through those programs. Even with UNC’s great decade of the 2000′s, almost none of our guys have made much of an impact who have graduated during that decade, maybe Haywood and Felton. Compare that to Scott, McAdoo, Jones, Kupchak, Davis and Ford–just over a five year period, all of these future NBA stars played for UNC, and that is not even counting the other guys who played pro ball but weren’t great, like Dennis Wuychik, Tom Lagarde and others.
william,
Understand your point, but my definition of powerhouse differs from yours. Yes, Carolina had 3 top ten players, nationally televised games, and recruiting benefits; but the performance had declined and the domination by Duke had reached a point that many were trying to build Maryland and Duke has more of a rivalry than UNC and Duke.
Yes the pieces were in place that prevented Roy from having to start from scratch, but by no means was Carolina a program that was contending for ACC or National titles before Roy showed up. No player on the roster had even played in the NCAAT by the time Roy arrived in Chapel Hill.
C. Michael,
I agree. Kevin Love, Iman Shumpert, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jrue Holliday, Delvon Roe. Out of those names, how many thought they could have been one and dones. Obviously, Love and Holiday turned out being in college for one year. Shumpert probably wanted to play point and didn’t want to wait one year before starting. Al-Farouq Aminu would have had to share a spot on the bench with either Zeller or Davis, because Thompson would have been ahead on the depth chart(wait…WTF?!!) Delvon Roe was a hot commodity before he got injured his senior. Maybe he felt he could make a bigger impact his freshman year in a frontcourt without a real post player.
True, Maryland was taking our place and their fans were taken aback by how quickly UNC reassumed its former leadership position, but don’t think it can’t happen to us.
It happened to Duke almost overnight in the early 1970′s, where they went from the top of the ACC to pretty much the bottom. NC State had been almost perpetually among the top three in the conference from its inauguration up to the point where Valvano started having problems in the late 1980′s and they essentially never recovered from that….
william,
if Stackhouse and Wallace didn’t leave after their sophomore year, how would have that lineup worked? I mean UNC had Carter and Jamison as freshmen.
sc11,
don’t forget the mutiny which would have happened if Doherty stayed.
Roy actually made a decision that he was taking a one and done guy in 2007, basically no matter what.
Originally, it was going to be Thaddeus Young, with Brandan Wright going to Duke. When Wright changed his mind, Roy pulled the offer to Young, who ended up with Javaris Crittenton at Georgia Tech. I guess Young has been okay in the pro’s, but Crittenton and Wright show the folly of so many of these guys being in such a hurry to get to the NBA….
william,
I was thinking from the perspective from the player. If you were Love would you want to share the spotlight with Hansbrough? Granted, I am certain UNC would have beaten Kansas. If you were Holiday, would you want to caddy Ty Lawson for a year?
It isn’t like UNC is the only team who missed out on players. Duke missed out on Greg Monroe and Jon Brockman. Illinois lost out on Eric Gordon and Jon Scheyer.
There are, in my opinion, two acceptable circumstances for recruiting one and done players. One would be to bring in the final piece you need to go on a championship run (which may have been what Marvin Williams turned out to be in ’05 – - although i realize he wasn’t expected to be a one and done). The second would be to bring in a player as a bridge between recruiting classes (which is what John Wall could have been for us in between Lawson and Marshall).
Everyone thought Henson was a one and done too, which might be one of the reasons Roy did not pursue the possibility of going after Wall because he did not want 2 one and dones. In addition to the appearance of recruiting over Larry Drew.
Which begs my earlier question(s)?
Did Roy and company just miss on Strickland and McDonald or were investing two scholarships into two average post players (the Wears) instead of more perimeter help a mistake?
Or did he just miss on the development of Ginyard and Graves?
I think it was probably a little bit of each. Strickland and McDonald were not the impact players that were anticipated plus Ginyard and Graves did not reach their potential, as a result it was a mistake of locking up two scholarships on average post players for an already stocked roster of post players, when most likely another quality guard was required for this season.
But easier to identify with 20/20 hindsight…….
With the Doherty thing, the accepted story is that of the mutiny. Perhaps Sean May would have transferred, of course he hadn’t played all that much at that point anyway. It is hard to see Felton and McCants transferring when they both wanted to get to the NBA quick anyway. I guess they could have declared for the draft, but ultimately nobody knows what would have happened.
But there have been plenty of successful teams where the players hate the coach, at least for a couple of years, anyway. Was Doherty really worse (or different, for that matter) from Bobby Knight, except for not having won a title yet? I don’t think Doherty was a good fit for UNC but I also think that based on performance, he did deserve another year.
Ultimately, UNC as a whole was a bit out of control after Dean left in 1997. Mistakes were made, as they say, but I think we have to all step back from believing all the easy rationales we were fed in 2003. We wanted Roy in 1999. We didn’t get him and we were definitely not going to take a chance on missing out on him in 2003, even if it meant rather rudely interfering in the end of Kansas’s almost dream season of 2003….
I remember last year when Zeller was contemplating coming back earlier, that many thought it was a no-brainer since he was a sure thing to be going professional early anyway.
I think Zeller has been a huge part of the over-estimation by people like Bilas, of this team’s ability. Roy played him ahead of Davis, early last year, probably because he graded out ahead of Davis, lol. So, since Davis was a sure top-five pick and Zeller was better than Davis, ergo, UNC was going to have the best frontline in college basketball.
That is the same kind of ergo reasoning which people used with Ginyard and Green, all of a sudden, you have three guys who are All ACC caliber starting for you, via the inductive principle, right, since Green was All ACC last year and ….
If only Zeller had ever played a whole game and we could have seen if he was any good or not, we might have some idea, but it is kind of funny now to see Halliday bemoaning the loss of Zeller and his ten points a game, when the kid wasn’t getting any minutes to speak of anyway.
william,
Did you notice the lack of success of Bobby Knight during the 90s while at Indiana? Times were changing.
sc11,
Don’t forget that UNC also locked up Kendall Marshall for the class of ’10. By bringing in Wall, what message is that sending to Marshall?
I would also like to make a comparison between Marcus Ginyard and Jackie Manuel. Meh!
Well, sure, but did he finish next to last in the Big Ten? I am trying to remember….
I was never a huge Jackie Manuel fan but his teams didn’t lack for scoring. He also seemed to me, to be a better defensive player than Ginyard, but who knows?
“Don’t forget that UNC also locked up Kendall Marshall for the class of ‘10. By bringing in Wall, what message is that sending to Marshall? ”
That most likely after Wall has his cup of coffee in Chapel Hill that it will be a very realistic goal for Marshall to win the starting job as a freshman. Because it basically would have said that Roy did not think Drew had the goods to be an elite point guard in the ACC, which we can argue whether or not that is a valid assumption or not at this point.
While on the subject of Marshall, he is my only concern with the 2010 recruiting class. I think Carolina has not one, but two potential stars in Barnes and Bullock, but I’m not sold yet that Marshall is an elite point guard that will be a major contributor in season one, and leads to my concern of 2 years before UNC contends for a title again. Although if LDII continues to develop and makes another jump in his junior season, then two better than average point guards could be enough.
I think Wall not being seriously recruited had more to do with his questionable association with Brian Clifton and the fact that he got arrested last year right around the time that Roy started talking to him a bit after the season.
That arrest was much to do about nothing as I recall….
Wall is a good player, but the last time I checked, he wasn’t as good as Lawson was his freshman year. Basically, we point to him because Roy made a big deal about him, not because any of us were necessarily clamoring for him. I honestly figured that Roy must know what he was talking about when he said the guys we had could handle the job.
Wall made some mistakes and UNC made some mistakes.
Wall had an AAU association that hurt him. His advisor, Mr. Clifton, was very much against UNC. Williams seemed very much intolerant of Clifton.
Ultimately, we all have to be as tolerant as possible. Last year I was really excited about Wall coming to UNC. I think his issues would have been sorted out in a way that would be honorable.
I wonder what the behind the scene issues are at Kentucky now as Wall and his coach seem a bit on the outs.
It is all of these secret issues that are perplexing.
I for one would love to see the current UNC team practice for a couple of weeks. I am convinced that would provide some real insight into what is really up with this team. I know some journalists get to attend practices.
When I was a student reporter in College, practice and the off-hand comments made by the assistants away from show time were the most telling.
Why not THF?
william,
Manuel’s teams didn’t lack scoring during the Roy Williams era. During Jackie’s first two years, I would consider him a disappointment.
Maybe opening up some of his practices would help Williams show more about what’s up with the team.
Not just cameo lay up drills, but the whole thing.
the upside to wall is that this year we would be relevant. before the season i would have said i agreed w/ jay freaking bilas and that w/ wall we’re a title contender. now, would wall even make that big of a difference? the answer is “yes, but”…with the “but” being that even with wall, ginyard, graves, and thompson still aren’t that good…and henson and davis and zeller are not high impact “stars”….so wall could have gotten us safely in the tourney.
the downside is that we would be having much bigger problems in the future if the clifton/wall/shadiness theory pans out and UK gets put on suspension from the ncaas. i don’t know to what extent this hypothesis should be taken to, but it would be MUCH worse than a down year to now be cast as cheaters and scandal ridden. that’s too big of a risk. and hell, analysts are not COMPLETE morons…..
…and they, along w/ the coaches poll or whatever, had us in the top 10. so my stance is that this year has been a comedy of errors and a complete perfect storm of events. the coaches can’t make someone convert a 2 on 1, they can’t force deon to not get the ball ripped on a layup, or ginyard to eat a jumper.
and someone accurately stated, sc11 i believe, that the freshmen aren’t exactly playing like gang busters, ready to take the world by storm. so, we go with what we have. and roy’s decision is to keep bringing freshmen along while hoping to get more out of G/G/DT (and larry for that matter) to give us a shot to win games and get into the tourney.
for recruiting, yes, times today are different. you get a team that goes to the elite 8 w/ freshmen and sophomores all of whom should return, and you’re not going to land many studs to back up a hansbrough or ty lawson, it’s just not how today’s game is played w/ kids and their families and hopes for exposure and nba. do you think michael beasley really wanted to go to KState or just wanted to go where a friend was and he knew he could be the star? and then we return the same group after a final four run and we still land 3 top recruits. these are guys who knew they’d be backing up some stars in hopes to get a ring and step in the next year to contribute.
problem is they haven’t panned out as planned. larry was the #3 overall PG in his class…#1 was brandon jennings, the kid who couldn’t pass the SAT so he took his act to europe and is now shining in the nba (previously had committed to arizona), and kemba walker up at Uconn, who is playing pretty well this year, a lot better than larry, but not a star of stars, so to speak.
zeller’s injury prone and davis hasn’t panned out as expected….however, one could say that zeller’s development is stalled b/c of freak injuries, and that davis is not even 100% this year making it hard for him to assume the role of star. which would be yet ANOTHER poor circumstance in an ongoing turn of events that go south for us this year.
William I agree that the arrest was much ado about nothing. That’s beside the point. The timing of it was really bad and it was another hit about a kid that had question marks for things aside from what he was able to do on the court. The problem with with Clifton wasn’t as much that he was anti Carolina, but that he may have been a walking NCAA violation. As much as would have liked to see a player of Wall’s caliber on our squad, I still support the decision to not get seriously involved.
@sc11 my thoughts/worries exactly re marshall. look this year is something that’s inevitable. look at why it happened from a recruiting angle. we landed a great core group of building blocks in TH’s class, then added 2 stars (3 but BWright bounced) and a solid role player in deon. they played together for 3 years in order to win the title. in the last year we added some insight punch in davis. that might not have happened with a group of 2 seniors, 2 juniors, 2 sophomores and 2 freshmen all making contributions. not saying it would have been impossible…but that was the same recipe for 2005 (not of roy’s doing then however) w/ seniors jawad, jackie and melvin and jr’s ray, rashad, and may, w/ stud reserve marvin along w/ noel filling the gaps….then, you just rebuild
so back to today, or should i say, tomorrow….marshall ranks in a similar area that SOME had LD2, which is in the 20′s. a true top 20 guy we should be able to live with, but LD was top 20 in some analysts sites and as low as 40 something in others (i think). point being, man, this is a deal breaker for us. b/c if marshall is more like larry and less like tywon or raymond, then what are the odds that roy will go over marshall AND larry and bring someone in w/ mcadoo and hairston to leapfrog them both? if not, we have like 5 more years of avg PG play…
optimism would say that larry gets his ****** kicked all year, rebounds strong enough to be a 3rd team PG and marshall is a very solid player, and two “pretty goods” are enough to run the show w/ a lot of surrounding talent…then larry has a great senior season and kendall gets a lot of minutes and then has the ability to be a great PG for two years as a junior and senior….
otehrwise, we’ll have a lot of horses with no one to run the show…*sigh*
agreed with whoever said the best UNC highlight of this season to date is the harrison barnes press conference
^ Alternately Ol’ Roy has to learn new tricks, i.e. modify his game plan, play more pick and rolls and more half-court sets like Syracuse or Kansas (under Bill Self) and step back from the break neck speed he is used to playing. One of the problems this team is having is that the team does not have ball-handlers who can play at that speed and the coach does not want to change his method of playing. This team should be playing at a slower speed with more half-court sets and stress ball protection, rather than having a track meet.
@william “erego reasoning” about sums up our entire perception of this year’s team…davis a top 5 pick, comes back, should assume spotlight and be a star…zeller, better than davis…wow! deon, SHOULD have improved from last year, and last year he wasn’t that bad in his role. ginyard, a starter on a final four team…great, we get leadership and two starters, plus to stud front court players…plus every other recruit in the area of henson on the recruiting boards is avery bradley, xavier henry, john wall, demarcous cousins, derick favors, i.e. instant impact. well, swing and a miss on every single one of those…could we have all been that off? damn
@sc11 i think it goes back to who you can get…i don’t think the class looked that bad on paper…here was scout.com’s rankings
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recruiting/tracker/espnu100?&season=2008&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2frecruiting%2ftracker%2fespnu100%3f%26season%3d2008
i just don’t know who else was out there as far as high octane wing players who are still in college after one year. tyreke evans, demar derozan and jrue holiday were one and doners, we tried and missed on aminu…hopson for tenn elliot williams for duke/memphis and willie warren for OU are the only ones i see as perimeter guys that are doing anything THIS year (i.e. not complete busts or in the NBA). that was not highly researched.
you always need solid role players…i think the wears will be good 4 year guys…mcdonald was never considered a high impact guy, but more of a ‘system guy’ who would develop into a nice 4 year player. strick was up there as a recruit, but not many people are forced to LEARN the point guard position as a freshmen in college for a top flight (err) program…so that had to take its toll…
timing maybe? combined with larry not being where we need him to be this year. ginyard and graves “development” as well as deon’s is non existent.
but to your point sc11, i don’t think the wears were bad scholarship decisions, i’m sure we tried and missed on plenty of guys before we got them
I have to say I go along with the “perfect storm” characterization of this year’s team. When I talk to my non-basketball friends and they ask me what’s up with the Heels this year, it seems like I end up doing a 10 Point presentation. And the downslide has just fed itself – this teams’confidence is pretty fragile right now. A finish of 5-3 (and an ACCT win) puts us back on the bubble, but I don’t know from where, and how, those 5 wins are going to come. (I know, we’ll probably be lucky to win 4 more games) One thing I know, it has to start with a win over Duke Wed. night. That would be the emotional lift we need to even think about pulling it off.
OK, since we started the looking at next year talk, let’s evaluate the potential of each class and position by what we’ve seen to date and what the “experts” project from incoming recruits:
Seniors
Will Graves – streaky outside shooter with a big body that has shown potential to be a quality rebounder. Slow feet and lazy anticipations make him a bad defender. Graves would be a quality player off the bench to provide spot up jump shots and offensive rebounding.
Juniors
Larry Drew – a very inconsistent point guard that shows flashes of greatness one minute and an absolute disaster the next. Drew has a solid outside shot that seems to either be on or off from game to game, and has solid ball handling skills along with showing drastic improvement year to year. Drew has not lived up to expectations as a defender, needs to learn what a bounce pass is and how to finish at the rim, while improving the peaks and valleys in his play. If Drew has similar improvement in his junior year as he did in his sophomore year then he has to potential to be an All-ACC caliber point guard. Also, having better finishers and shooters around him should also assist in improving Drew’s performance on the court.
Ed Davis – has not developed into the inside force that was anticipated. Davis has a soft touch, good length, and is a decent shot blocker. But still needs to improve his strength, toughness, and free throw shooting. Still has potential to be a star and All-American type player.
Tyler Zeller – injuries and lack of playing time have lead to another disappointment that was expected to be a force in the post. Zeller has a terrific offensive game and runs the court like a gazelle, but seems lost defensively and not strong with the ball or the type of shot blocker you would anticipate from someone his size. Still has potential to be an All-ACC type player.
Sophomores
John Henson – has had a disappointing first year playing out of position on the wing and not the impact talent that was expected. Henson has the skill set to be a dynamic low post player with his length, athletic ability, and ability to step out on the perimeter. John still needs to get MUCH stronger, but when he does it is apparent that the sky is the limit for his potential. Depending on his development could be an All ACC player as a sophomore and an All American type player as a junior.
Dexter Strickland – has had moments of brilliance and then other moments of very lackluster and inconsistent play. Strickland playing out of position has not helped, but he has shown exceptional quickness and a streaky jump shot. Once he plays solely on wing and improves the consistency of his jump shot I think Strickland can develop into a dynamic scorer that could be All-ACC caliber by his junior season.
Leslie McDonald – has been a very inconsistent shooter despite the nice looking stroke on his jump shot. McDonald currently looks lost and unsure of himself on the court and even more lost on the defensive end of the floor. Could be a solid contributor off the bench and has the skill set to develop into a quality defender. Currently see has a role player who could develop into All ACC potential by his senior season.
David and Travis Wear – have been solid players with good fundamentals, but seem to lack the quality talent that would allow them to develop into stars or big time post players. Each has an excellent outside touch and solid ball handling skills, but need to develop strength and foot speed to help offset their athletic limitations. I see both of these guys as quality 4 year post players, but neither become stars or All ACC caliber players.
Freshman
Harrison Barnes – is supposed to be a star with all the tools of an athletic wing forward. Barnes hopefully will provide the size, athleticism, and shooting ability at the wing forward position that Carolina is currently lacking.
Reggie Bullock – is supposed to be another star that can shoot and handle the ball with great length that can be developed into an excellent perimeter defender. Again Bullock should provide shooting and athleticism that this team is currently missing.
Kendall Marshall – is supposed to be a great ball handler with wonderful court vision who has been tabbed as an elite prospect since he was in middle school. Marshal should add depth at the point guard position that will provide additional ball handling and allow Strickland to play his natural position.
By position:
PG – B, two quality ball handlers and distributors, but not elite level talent of a Lawson or Felton.
SG – A, improved depth, shooting, and athletic ability by adding Bullock and moving Strickland to his natural position.
SF – A, hopefully a star in Barnes and a veteran sharp shooter and rebounder coming off the bench
PF – B+, potential stars in Davis and Henson, but still missing the bruising forward that can grab rebounds and do the dirty work
C – B, potential of a star with Zeller and solid bench players with the Wears, but again unless the Wears fill the gap, still missing the tough guy that will intimidate opponents in the paint.
^-good stuff-can’t say I disagree with any of that, except maybe to add that (close your ears Minny) I would still like to see what Henson could do on defense at the point of a 3-2 zone, and what Graves could do at the 4 (“the bruising forward that can grab rebounds and do the dirty work”).
@larrys glad to see your jumping on the bandwagon too! this team is ugly, and frustrating to watch as a fan b/c there is no predictability, both in terms of who we run the offense to, to who will even show up (or who will lay a huge egg) on a given play or on a given night as a whole. that being said, can this team piece together a little mini run? i’m hoping we split with duke and win the rest of our matches. do acct games count for our conference record? if so, then two wins and an L would actually put us over .500 for the year. regardless if we’re 8-8 (gives us room to lose only one more game) and win two games in the ACCT i think we could sneak in w/ some confidence. if we struggle…then here’s hoping we can win the whole tourney. which is also possible! either result will give us a ton of confidence and make this year not a complete failure. if we don’t get either of those two results, then, well….on to SC11′s comments!
PG: huge question mark. i would hate for us to fall in between the cracks here, w/ kendall not being that great, and larry not making a huge jump. however, if kendall is the real deal he could leap frog larry into the starting lineup or push larry to shore up his game. either of those would be fine. and i think larry COULD compete at this level as a junior. his mistakes this year are mind blowing, using terrible passing angles, missing free throws, spacing out on D, etc…these are all mental. as was previously noted, some actual help on O will make his life easier b/c he is a facilitator. bullock/barnes won’t get larry engaged on D, but success and confidence should get him to get his act together. Kendall Marshall was the overall #1 player at one point in time in the ENTIRE class…so hopefully he’s fallen off since he committed very early to UNC and has had the opportunity to actually win games and not showboat at events…but the kid goes to all the elite tournaments, is on the national u-18 team, seems to be the real deal….if larry steps it up and kendall is legit, we’ll have a pretty dynamic PG combo.
SG: dexter and bullock will be DYNAMITE….bullock is a rangey athletic shooter and dexter can fly and be disruptive on D. the difference b/t next year’s class and this year is that bullock and barnes are two of the prized recruits, whereas dexter and mcdonald were more like ‘nice to haves’ but not the program changing/instant impact guys.
SF: Barnes. my attitude will change completely if we freakin’ start will graves. no offense, and this is assuming barnes is #1 overall for a reason (look at previous year’s #1 overall recruits, not bad company LEBRON JAMES, AMARE STOUDAMIRE). graves off the bench could give us some seniority and attitude in the second unit. the problem w/ him starting is he’s just too slow and not an elite talent…
PF: Henson/Zeller/Davis. okay this year didn’t work out, if davis goes pro then it opens the door for henson. if he stays, then he should at this point in time really be a beast. technically speaking i think davis would man the C spot and Zeller would be PF…but who cares. davis has shown flashes this year and if he gets the ball and learns a bit more about working hard off the ball to get position, he is hard to stop. Zeller, haven’t seen much yet but the potential is there. if zeller, davis, and henson are all playing up to par, then we’re okay with none of them being POY candidates next year b/c tey will be a force to reckon with.
C: the ‘other’ b/t zeller and davis….these two guys in the game together will be awesome, i hope ed comes back for this…sprinkle in some henson for freakishness and the wears for toughness and now we really do have a good and deep front court. the analysts were right, just didn’t factor in the fact that we all needed a year of development to make it happen.
Bench: i agree, the wears are good 4 year players. there is something special about them when they’re in the game together, it’s like they’re better as a whole than they are individually…they find each other, hell it seems like they know when the other will shoot and where the rebound will go…it’s fun to watch, and while they will most likely not crack the starting lineup barring injury or early nba departures, they will have a great impact on the program. the bar is set pretty low with Deon, who made great improvement going into his sophomore year and looked like he could really be a stud role player…then nothing happened and he never got better. so if i envision the wears as juniors or seniors, i’m envisioning a lot more hustle, muscle, will power, and results than Deon as a senior. McDonald, again, great role player….if he works on his J like DG did, then we will be talking about some serious fire power in the next few years to have a kid like this as an 8th man.
upon graduation of graves, it gets even better w/ the addition of james mcadoo and p.j. hairston, and that class isn’t done yet. for comparison’s sake, dexter and mcdonald were ranked high teens (dex) and in the 30′s (mcdonald)…hairston is ranked 12, which is 3 slots lower than wayne…and anyone who keeps up with this or espn recruiting knows mcadoo is a BEAST.
so, the thing that will make me happy this year is to see development and progress. from the earlier thread of what is unacceptable? well, i don’t really know….not making the tourney or having a losing record seems terrible, but if we see signs of life from ed, zeller, henson, larry, and strick, then i’m going to feel okay about getting better in the offseason and adding some firepower.
I think these are reasonable grades and projections for this team, all in all not too different a scouting report for the current players on this list than what we saw at the beginning of this year, though they should be better next year. (Excuse me if I’m a little projection-gun shy at this point because I felt good about the current team.) In addition to getting the quality recruiting class we expect, one thing that will have to improve is the teams’ aggressiveness and intensity – just getting after it. It will also be interesting to see who emerges as the team leaders. That list of players, though, has a pretty doggone good upside. There aren’t too many teams in the country, if any, that wouldn’t be thrilled to have that group.
since I’m a sucker for coaching trivia / historical trends…at IU Bob Knight finished 7th in big 10 play in the 1989-1990 season. 8-10 in conference, 1st round NCAA exit. His last 5 seasons at IU were finishes ranged btn 3rd – 6th, with nothing special in NCAA play.
Lot, lot of interesting commentary today.
“Also, looking at Kansas’s records from the past, Roy has had lulls before, most strikingly, right before the two Final Four appearances with Kansas, where he lost 20 games in 1999 and 2000 and didn’t make it past the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney. So, he has clawed back before, I have no reason to doubt that he has it in him now.”
I am wonderin’ if the quality of big 12 play in those down years (1999-2000) was much different than what this UNC team faces today. Some of the big 12 dreck can be, or at least historically, awful. Baylor, Colorado, Nebraska have ranged between mediocre-average (baylor improved recently, of course). Iowa State had a good run near this timing but made untimely exits.
ACC put a team in the final four each of those years. I don’t recall the big 12 having a rep, for either 1999 or 2000.
To all the haters… last year Roy could do no wrong. Many of you said it and wrote it. In 2006 he was the greatest coach ever, so “they” said (NCY if i remember right) for what he did with “a young, inexperienced team”. From 2003-2009 he brought UNC from the depths, and we all praised him. ESPN just weeks ago called him the coach of the decade. They ranked UNC the #1 program of the decade. And what I hear often here is a lot of throwing Roy and the coaching staff under the bus after one half of a bad season. C’mon… your expectations are ridiculous. November and Barnes are coming. Ginyard and Thompson are going. Drew will be sitting. Have faith and see the big picture! All will be well in the world again.
We’ve got to……
We’ve got to remember how good it was last year to be a heel’s fan…..
We’ve got to remember that we have a special head coach who loves unc.
We’ve got to remember that our returning experienced players from last year really wasn’t that great….
We’ve got to realize that our kids and coaches HAVE TO learn from this year…..
We’ve got to realize that every team out there knows that they better beat us while they can…..
We’ve got to KNOW that roy will turn this ship around…..
I’ve got to remember that I still love my heel’s……
I have to say that we ended up having some of the best and most interesting comments today that I have seen. It is interesting how a bad season can instantly turn almost all of us into recruiting mavens.
I remember back in 2005 desperately following the recruitment of Uche Echefu, who would have been a nice addition and given us a type of “fab five” freshmen, but he ended up going to Florida State and having a Deon Thompson-type of career– perhaps Echefu was a little better, particularly during his senior year.
I will never forget that guy with the strange foreign name because it seemed at the time that UNC desperately need him.