Possession analysis vs. Maryland

Sometimes it is hard to reconcile a box score and how the game actually flows. Since I was not able to watch yesterday's game in real time and had to DVR it, I decided to keep a possession chart like I did many times in my 14 years as a high school and college basketball coach. Hopefully this will give some context as to what actually goes into the box score.

If you don't want all the "inside baseball" talk, here is the executive summary: UNC scored 71 points on 77 possessions, for 0.92 points per possession. Not horrible, particularly given the poor shooting, but decent teams usually hover around 1.0 or better. More telling was the 17 misses in the lane or within 8 feet of the basket. I was also discouraged in looking at the transition opportunities in that the Heels appear to want to shoot more than drive - 9 drives vs. 13 jump shot attempts.

After UNC takes an early 6-5 lead, the Heels only score on two of their next nine possessions, with three turnovers and three missed shots in the paint. After falling behind 32-16, UNC scores on 6 of 8 possessions with only one turnover to cap a 14-2 run and cut the score to 34-30. The the Heels only connect on 2 of their final nine possessions of the first half, with three misses in the paint, two turnovers, and two transition misses to go into the break trailing by 10.

In the second half, after withstanding the Maryland run and cutting the lead to 4 points at 58-54, Carolina only scratched on 5 of its next 23 possessions and was outscored 34-13.

In any case, maybe this shows the how and why behind the numbers. Bold signifies scoring possessions:


1st half:

Possession

1st half:

Result

1 Drew jacks up 18 ft jumper 1 on 3 in transition
2 Ginyard misses open 3 from right corner
3 Ginyard makes layup in transition
4 Davis shot blocked on pick and roll; Ginyard feeds Thompson for baseline turnaround jumper
5 Thompson hits 15 ft jumper (6-5 lead – UNC’s only lead of the game)
6 Ginyard bad pass on 2-on-1 break - TURNOVER
7 Davis forces contested jumper; Graves gets offensive rebound and misses putback
8 Graves hits open 3 six seconds into shot clock
9 Strickland forces jumper in 1-on-2 transition
10 Thompson attempts baseline shot from under the backboard
11 Strickland TURNOVER in transition
12 Thompson fouled going to basket in transition – 1-2 FT
13 T. Wear misses 8 ft baseline turnaround jumper
14 D. Wear commits charge – TURNOVER – UNC calls time out
15 D. Wear makes 18 ft jumper in transition
16 Davis makes turnaround jumper in lane
17 Henson shoots ugly baseline hook shot
18 Ginyard fouled in transition – 1-2 FT
19 Thompson trapped on baseline – TURNOVER
20 Drew quick 15 ft jumper in transition – Graves rebound slam dunk
21 Drew drives – misses layup; Henson misses stickback in lane (UMD goes up 32-16)
22 Graves makes NBA 3 from left wing
23 Thompson makes layup in transition
24 T. Wear misses 18 ft baseline jumper
25 T. Wear TURNOVER on baseline
26 Ginyard makes layup in transition
27 Strickland makes 3 from left wing in flow of offense
28 Davis makes 15 ft jumper in transition
29 McDonald makes 18 ft jumper on ball reversal (lead cut to 34-30 – 14-2 UNC run)
30 Davis misses layup
31 Drew unforced TURNOVER in backcourt
32 McDonald misses 3 with 29 on shot clock
33 Thompson has ball knocked away 25 feet from basket - TURNOVER
34 Davis misses 5 ft turnaround jumper
35 Drew throws up out-of-control airball; Davis rebounds and scores on stickback
36 Stickland forces 14 ft jumper in 2-on-4 transition
37 Ginyard fouled on drive to basket – 2-2 FT
38 Graves shoots contested 3
2nd half:
Possession
2nd half:

Result

1 Drew TURNOVER at mid-court
2 Ginyard makes 3 from left corner on reversal
3 Thompson misses layup
4 Ginyard misses open 3
5 Ginyard misses transition layup; Thompson misses stickback; Thompson misses another stickback; finally scores off rebound
6 Thompson makes 12 ft baseline jumper + foul; 1-1 FT
7 Ginyard makes 3 off reversal and ball fakes
8 Graves forces 3 from left corner; Ginyard hustles for offensive rebound; Henson scores on drive and dunk
9 Thompson fouled on turnaround jumper in lane – 2-2 FT (UNC cuts to 52-49)
10 Graves makes forced runner in lane
11 Strickland drives – never looks to pass – layup blocked
12 Press broken, Graves misses 12 ft jumper instead of going to the hoop
13 Ginyard misses open 3; Henson misses stickback; Graves scores on putback
14 Ginyard fouled in transition – 1-2 FT (UNC cuts to 58-54)
15 Drew picked in backcourt - TURNOVER
16 McDonald misses 3 in flow of offense
17 Drew drives and TURNOVER
18 Drew TURNOVER on bad-angle post feed
19 D. Wear misses 16 ft jumper in transition (10-0 MD run, 68-54)
20 T. Wear fouled on drive – 2-2 FT
21 Ginyard misses driving layup
22 T. Wear travels in transition - TURNOVER
23 Ginyard makes 3 off reversal
24 Thompson misses 12 ft jumper; Davis misses stickback - UNC calls timeout
25 Drew out-of-control drive but fouled – 0-2 FT
26 Thompson post-up and score
27 Ginyard short-arm misses 15 ft jumper off curl
28 Ginyard misses 3 in transition (now 83-61 MD)
29 Davis misses layup but fouled – 2-2 FT
30 Davis misses contested turnaround jumper in lane
31 Drew wild drive; Davis bails him out and is fouled – 0-2 FT; Henson gets offensive rebound and misses putback
32 Drew misses 3 in transition; Henson gets offensive rebound; Drew nice feed to Davis for dunk
33 Ginyard misses quick 3
34 Thompson misses 12 ft jumper
35 Strickland steal and coast-to-coast layup
36 Strickland unforced TURNOVER
37 Strickland bad pass – TURNOVER (MD 92-67)
38 Strickland fouled on drive – 2-2 FT
39 Henson makes 18 ft jumper from wing
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