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Possession analysis vs. Maryland

Sometimes it is hard to reconcile a box score and how the game actually flows.  Since I was not able to watch yesterday’s game in real time and had to DVR it, I decided to keep a possession chart like I did many times in my 14 years as a high school and college basketball coach.  Hopefully this will give some context as to what actually goes into the box score.

If you don’t want all the “inside baseball” talk, here is the executive summary: UNC scored 71 points on 77 possessions, for 0.92 points per possession.  Not horrible, particularly given the poor shooting, but decent teams usually hover around 1.0 or better.  More telling was the 17 misses in the lane or within 8 feet of the basket.  I was also discouraged in looking at the transition opportunities in that the Heels appear to want to shoot more than drive – 9 drives vs. 13 jump shot attempts.

After UNC takes an early 6-5 lead, the Heels only score on two of their next nine possessions, with three turnovers and three missed shots in the paint.  After falling behind 32-16, UNC scores on 6 of 8 possessions with only one turnover to cap a 14-2 run and cut the score to 34-30.  The the Heels only connect on 2 of their final nine possessions of the first half, with three misses in the paint, two turnovers, and two transition misses to go into the break trailing by 10.

In the second half, after withstanding the Maryland run and cutting the lead to 4 points at 58-54, Carolina only scratched on 5 of its next 23 possessions and was outscored 34-13.

In any case, maybe this shows the how and why behind the numbers.  Bold signifies scoring possessions:

1st half:

Possession

1st half:

Result

1 Drew jacks up 18 ft jumper 1 on 3 in transition
2 Ginyard misses open 3 from right corner
3 Ginyard makes layup in transition
4 Davis shot blocked on pick and roll; Ginyard feeds Thompson for baseline turnaround jumper
5 Thompson hits 15 ft jumper (6-5 lead – UNC’s only lead of the game)
6 Ginyard bad pass on 2-on-1 break – TURNOVER
7 Davis forces contested jumper; Graves gets offensive rebound and misses putback
8 Graves hits open 3 six seconds into shot clock
9 Strickland forces jumper in 1-on-2 transition
10 Thompson attempts baseline shot from under the backboard
11 Strickland TURNOVER in transition
12 Thompson fouled going to basket in transition – 1-2 FT
13 T. Wear misses 8 ft baseline turnaround jumper
14 D. Wear commits charge – TURNOVER – UNC calls time out
15 D. Wear makes 18 ft jumper in transition
16 Davis makes turnaround jumper in lane
17 Henson shoots ugly baseline hook shot
18 Ginyard fouled in transition – 1-2 FT
19 Thompson trapped on baseline – TURNOVER
20 Drew quick 15 ft jumper in transition – Graves rebound slam dunk
21 Drew drives – misses layup; Henson misses stickback in lane (UMD goes up 32-16)
22 Graves makes NBA 3 from left wing
23 Thompson makes layup in transition
24 T. Wear misses 18 ft baseline jumper
25 T. Wear TURNOVER on baseline
26 Ginyard makes layup in transition
27 Strickland makes 3 from left wing in flow of offense
28 Davis makes 15 ft jumper in transition
29 McDonald makes 18 ft jumper on ball reversal (lead cut to 34-30 – 14-2 UNC run)
30 Davis misses layup
31 Drew unforced TURNOVER in backcourt
32 McDonald misses 3 with 29 on shot clock
33 Thompson has ball knocked away 25 feet from basket – TURNOVER
34 Davis misses 5 ft turnaround jumper
35 Drew throws up out-of-control airball; Davis rebounds and scores on stickback
36 Stickland forces 14 ft jumper in 2-on-4 transition
37 Ginyard fouled on drive to basket – 2-2 FT
38 Graves shoots contested 3
2nd half:
Possession
2nd half:

Result

1 Drew TURNOVER at mid-court
2 Ginyard makes 3 from left corner on reversal
3 Thompson misses layup
4 Ginyard misses open 3
5 Ginyard misses transition layup; Thompson misses stickback; Thompson misses another stickback; finally scores off rebound
6 Thompson makes 12 ft baseline jumper + foul; 1-1 FT
7 Ginyard makes 3 off reversal and ball fakes
8 Graves forces 3 from left corner; Ginyard hustles for offensive rebound; Henson scores on drive and dunk
9 Thompson fouled on turnaround jumper in lane – 2-2 FT (UNC cuts to 52-49)
10 Graves makes forced runner in lane
11 Strickland drives – never looks to pass – layup blocked
12 Press broken, Graves misses 12 ft jumper instead of going to the hoop
13 Ginyard misses open 3; Henson misses stickback; Graves scores on putback
14 Ginyard fouled in transition – 1-2 FT (UNC cuts to 58-54)
15 Drew picked in backcourt – TURNOVER
16 McDonald misses 3 in flow of offense
17 Drew drives and TURNOVER
18 Drew TURNOVER on bad-angle post feed
19 D. Wear misses 16 ft jumper in transition (10-0 MD run, 68-54)
20 T. Wear fouled on drive – 2-2 FT
21 Ginyard misses driving layup
22 T. Wear travels in transition – TURNOVER
23 Ginyard makes 3 off reversal
24 Thompson misses 12 ft jumper; Davis misses stickback – UNC calls timeout
25 Drew out-of-control drive but fouled – 0-2 FT
26 Thompson post-up and score
27 Ginyard short-arm misses 15 ft jumper off curl
28 Ginyard misses 3 in transition (now 83-61 MD)
29 Davis misses layup but fouled – 2-2 FT
30 Davis misses contested turnaround jumper in lane
31 Drew wild drive; Davis bails him out and is fouled – 0-2 FT; Henson gets offensive rebound and misses putback
32 Drew misses 3 in transition; Henson gets offensive rebound; Drew nice feed to Davis for dunk
33 Ginyard misses quick 3
34 Thompson misses 12 ft jumper
35 Strickland steal and coast-to-coast layup
36 Strickland unforced TURNOVER
37 Strickland bad pass – TURNOVER (MD 92-67)
38 Strickland fouled on drive – 2-2 FT
39 Henson makes 18 ft jumper from wing
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141 comments to Possession analysis vs. Maryland

  • AZACCFan

    Is Davis looking past college to NBA? Thinking it does not matter because it will soon be the past? I hope not. But only he knows for sure.

  • LarryS

    Ed may be struggling a bit with his offensive game and consistency recently (although he’s having a better year, overall, than last year) , on a team that’s having it’s own problems, but I doubt he’s not fully aware that you only get so many chances (games) to prove yourself capable of being a good player, even making it to the next level. And not taking advantage of those opportunities, as far as NBA aspirations, can cost a player a great deal just slipping one or two spots.

    I think Ed is trying. He may have not gotten back a few times because he wasn’t hustling like he should be, and he may seem like he’s not playing hard because he doesn’t have a real aggressive style, but I think inside he’s a competitor. I mean I don’t care if those balls fell right in his lap, he still had to be doing something right to get 16 boards in the last game.

  • faustus1500

    Wait it took this long to put Donald Williams’ jersey?

  • Heel To The End

    Donald’s didnt qualify under the old standards. theyve been changed to include Final Four MVPs. the other jerseys are only “honored”, Tyler’s is retired.

  • william

    As I watch my second favorite alma mater here in the frozen tundra of the Capital Beltway, with George Mason getting a huge victory over their big rival VCU in overtime after trailing by 15 points in the second half, I can’t help but notice just how excited the kids on the bench are, enthusiastically cheering for their teammates on every play. I haven’t seen a whole lot of that with our squad. They seem passive and unenthusiastic in every way.

    I tell you one thing, I doubt that Roy will be lecturing anybody about not attending guys next year.

  • william

    “one criticism you never hear about K’s teams is a lack of effort.

    seriously, i’d take Wes Miller and either Terry or Noel tomorrow night over a couple guys on the roster now.”

    Um…who wouldn’t you take them over based on what you have actually seen, not potential?

    About Ed Davis, Jr, as mediocre as he has been, if Kwame Brown is a one, then Ed might very well be a five….

  • Heel To The End

    Dook is the top 3 point shooting team in the conference. should be fun.

  • 52bgJ

    speaking of soft, Matt Doh & 1981 Heels vs Kansas on ESPN Classic right now.

  • Heel To The End

    missed it.
    i always liked Doh as a player. he made a lot of clutch plays, didnt make many errors.

  • 52bgJ

    yep-no risk/no errors. Magley had a pretty darn nice game for KU. It’s still a bit stunning to see Perkins, Worthy & Jordan on the same team retrospectively.

  • Heel To The End

    Barry Jacobs:

    Individuals’ limitations also have been exposed. Every team and every player grapples with compensating for weaknesses; hiding those flaws is easier when players execute the game plan.

    Which leads to intangibles. It’s difficult to identify the Heels’ emotional leader on the court. The defensive effort isn’t always manifest.

    A more basic problem may be revealed by the observations of a coach who’s watched tape of the Heels in action. He noted they are less inclined than in the past to point to one another when a good pass leads to a basket, or to hustle to the bench when summoned.

    ***interesting last sentence.

  • faustus1500

    I realize that to retire a jersey you needed to be named National Player of the Year, but Donald Williams’ jersey could still be honored. I thought that standard included tourney MOP?

  • OldSchool

    The comments by Barry Jacobs are disturbing because they indicate a much deeper problem, one that I’ve suspected for some time. These kids don’t really like each other or have much in common.

    I went to the NC Central game earlier this season and was surprised to see Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, and Will Graves shooting warm-ups with headphones on, evidently listening to ipods. No talking or interacting with other players. It didn’t seem right to me, but I figured Roy had it all under control. I haven’t been to any other games. Is that still going on?

  • Heel To The End

    ^yup. i think on the previous page of this thread, i was thinking aloud that i would put an end to that.

  • L8N

    As long as I can remember, basketball players have been shooting warm ups while listening to music. It helps them get focused mentally. (obviously, it appears they aren’t this season). I don’t think taking away their right to listen will solve anything.

    I haven’t gathered the impression, at all in fact, that they don’t like each other. They’re always going out to get food together and they even live together. I think the problem is that they aren’t winning, which makes it tougher to laugh and joke around and have fun. Once the winning comes back, they will appear more light hearted.

  • Heel To The End

    ^there are actually a few reports, the latest from Jeff Gravley yesterday on 99.9, that the upperclassmen go one way, and the underclassmen another.

    and if the music is getting these players focused mentally, i would hate to see their focus without the music.

  • Heel To The End

    it would appear that Travis Wear has suffered an ankle injury in practice. no word yet on the extent of it, but it was enough to report.
    IC people were first saying he broke it. thats not the word coming out.

    yet another ankle/foot injury.

  • L8N

    A little disparity will be there when the team isn’t winning…

  • Heel To The End

    ^i hear ya. i’m just leaning toward solutions that take things back to basics. stripping away the conveniences and luxuries to focus on the game. these are unique times.

  • stephens

    I’ve always thought college players wearing headphones during warm-ups was a little wierd. I realize every player is different and has to find his own way to prepare, but it seems to me that it creates more separation and “individualness” that might lead to more counter productiveness than good…. I prefer to see alot of talking and interaction during pre-game.

  • L8N

    I understand that. By taking away those privileges, it might make them play worse because they’re angry and have absolutely no fun at all. It could go either way.

    Deon has played well against Duke, right? Maybe he’ll show up tonight.

  • stephens

    I may sound crazy, but, for whatever reason, I’ve got a good feeling about tonight.

  • L8N

    I hope you are correct, stephens. I hope you are correct.

  • stephens

    A good friend of mine, who is a huge Duke bb fan, told me before the VaTec game that the Heels would drop their next two games, come home to Chapel Hill as a double digit underdog to Duke, and win the game outright. This guy has been remarkably accurate with whacky predictions like this, so I’m feeling his vibe and going with it.

  • 52bgJ

    I’m totally with you L8N. Let’s not forget that Jacob’s is a Duke guy–even the erudite one isn’t above a little pot-stirring when given the opening. There’s plenty of evidence these guys are a reasonably close-knit team. It occurred to me last night that the 82 team wasn’t really that close off the court–MJ was better friends with some on the football team, so I think fans make a bigger deal out of that than is necessary.

    Hopefully, one of the things we will get tonight is a little more clarity on the nature of the problem with this team. IE–is the problem effort, or talent/hoops IQ? The effort will be there (for the 1st half anyway).

  • L8N

    Dick Vitale (who we all love /sarcasm) said that the Heels need to focus on defense. I would tend to agree. The shots aren’t falling right now, but if they play stellar defense, they can generate a better offense. We’ll see.

  • 52bgJ

    ^spot on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • L8N

    Furthermore, I think Henson and Davis will have a few blocks tonight.

  • Heel To The End

    wait, whoa. stephens has a “good friend” thats a huge Dook basketball fan?

    does THF know this? was stephens properly vetted? :-O

  • L8N

    I couldn’t possibly be friends with a duke fan and luckily for me, they’re few and far between in Ohio.

  • “was stephens properly vetted?”

    It’s always good to have a spy! ;)

  • stephens

    L8N…I’m assuming you were kidding with your last post. Duke basketball fans are a joy to be around, if and only if, they are knowledgeable and have the ability to talk without arrogance and ignorance. I know a few of them.

  • L8N

    stephens… like I said, tough to even find duke fans in Ohio. There are a few, but those I know personally, do not have the ability to talk without arrogance and ignorance.

  • Heel To The End

    a joy to be around?
    since when? ;)
    not to mention, in 30 years of UNC fandom, of the Dook fans i’ve met, less than 1% are alums or otherwise directly connected.

    seriously tho, we need to have that remark stricken from the record. a joy.

    i’ll take it a step further than L8N. i wouldnt date Halle, Angelina, Jennifer, Zooey or Eliza, if they were Dook fans. not now, not ever!

  • stephens

    I hear you L8N…I’m surrounded by them most of the time, so it’s nice to know a few that can speak without drooling that awful blue color. They know I hate their guys and I know they hate our guys, but we can have real basketball conversations.

  • stephens

    @Heel To The End….I respect your comments and opinions.

  • Heel To The End

    thanks, stephens.
    youre a better man than i. :)

  • stephens

    yeah…I kinda guessed that.

  • nativeheel

    I am beginning to wonder about some of the posters on this site. The only correct spelling of UNJD, aka the University of New Jersey at Durham is DOOK! Spies indeed. Go Heels!!

  • L8N

    nativeheel – I chose not to capitalize, so that has to count for something.