The ACC & SEC Blog asked me to be a part of a roundtable discussion. Here are my answers to their probing questions.
1. The national perception is that the ACC is down this year. Duke has been in the top 10 all year, but no one else has come close. Does the conference deserve this reputation? Why or Why not?
In past seasons the ACC has gotten by with some top heaviness and average teams beneath. Generally is is UNC and Duke ranked in the top ten, a couple of others in the 10-25 spots in the polls and a few more who get into the NCAA Tournament beyond those. This season that is not the case. Duke might be top ten and in line for a #1 seed but they also have losses to Wisconsin as well as getting throttled by Georgetown. Maryland has a loss to William & Mary on their schedule. After that you have FSU, Virginia Tech and Clemson as the next most likely candidates to make the NCAA Tournament and even then some folks are balking on the Hokies. So, yes the league is down but one could argue it has been down for awhile but UNC’s three Final Four runs and two titles alongside Duke still being #1/2 seed material during that span has masked it.
2. Does Duke have what it takes to make a run to a National Championship? Why or Why not?
Yes and no. On one hand, Duke has three prolific scorers, a solid PG and excellent team defense. Those are most of the ingredients you need. The lack of an interior scoring threat puts them into a tough position. Duke is too dependent on perimeter scoring which could go cold at the wrong time. Duke also lacks a significant enough post presence to stop a team with a balanced offense. That is not to say Duke cannot get favorable matchups and get to the Final Four where anything could happen but at some point they are going to run across a Kansas or Kentucky who has all the parts and it will be very tough to overcome the Blue Devils’ state deficiencies.
3. We know Duke and Maryland are in, but who else gets in from the ACC? Will we see any surprises on Selection Sunday?
I am thinking six teams from the ACC get in. Georgia Tech’s late season swoon will probably end up costing them a bid unless the Jackets can do some damage at the ACC Tournament. Georgia Tech is 3-6 since the beginning of February with their only wins being over UNC, NC State and Boston College, all at home. Wake Forest also lost to UNC and NC State but is 5-4 during the same span with a win over Clemson to close the season. The Deacs other two losses of late have been to Virginia Tech and FSU, hardly bad by any measure. FSU, Virginia Tech and Clemson should all be in which means we are spared Seth Greenberg’s perpetual groveling/whining.
4. What is the biggest surprise of the season (good or bad)?
Bad: UNC. That is all I have to say about that.
Good: The fact Greivis Vasquez turned into an elite player, not just in the ACC but on the national level. Vasquez could be good at times but the fact he has put together a complete season surprised me.
5. A couple of teams have had disappointing seasons. Whose seat is the hottest?
No one appears to be in trouble this season. Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech should be fired like two years ago but he snagged a sweet rollover contract following the Jackets’ trip to the title game in 2004 which carries an expensive buyout. There is little chance GT moves on that in the current economic conditions. NCSU’s Sidney Lowe is being given more time and rightfully so seeing what he has in the recruiting pipeline. The coach no one really wants to discuss as being on the hot seat is Wake’s Dino Gaudio. Some of that has to do with Skip Prosser’s untimely death which thrust Gaudio into the head coaching position. However, despite having talented teams over the past two seasons, Gaudio has lost control of the ship to a certain extent as the season wore on. Last season was far worse as Wake went from ranked #1 at one point to losing out of the NCAA Tournament to a #13 seed. This season the Deacs played well enough early on but again there are issues with chemistry and unhappy players leading to a four game losing streak which Wake managed to break versus Clemson. The one saving grace is, Wake probably has played well enough to go to the NCAA Tournament unless they find a way to lose to Miami. For now, everyone is safe but come next season there could be a reckoning.
6. Who is your player and coach of the year? Why?
POY: Greivis Vasquez, MD
COY: Gary Williams, MD
I think Vasquez was the best player in the ACC and I think he meant more to his team as far as elevating the Terps to a regular season co-championship with Duke. Jon Scheyer was good but he clearly had more help along the way.
Gary Williams did more with less than anyone else in the ACC. Granted having good guard play solves a variety of ills in college basketball but Williams got significant contributions out of freshman Jordan Williams and a slew of role players. Besides, Maryland was picked for fifth and finished tied for first.
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good answers. Regards to # 2…it’s too bad there’ll be a 4th # 1 seed. This season it seems as though there’s plenty of either #2 or # 3 seeds, but quality # 1 not as much.
One never really knows what to make of articles like this, but it makes it sound as if Paul Hewitt’s job is not necessarily secure at this point. Kind of makes you wonder if this will be any extra motivation for GT players.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=4979862
Bracketology has 7 ACC teams in, as of today, but I agree that Georgia Tech would be the most likely to get bumped if it loses to UNC.
The ACC is weaker this year, but there just aren’t any dominant/great teams on the national scene either. Pretty much everyone has shown it could be beaten by lesser teams, and I really believe anyone seeded at #4, or better, has a good shot at the Final Four. But, as always, the bracket distribution will have a lot to do with it. (Watch Duke get a great draw)
Wouldn’t it be ironic if the ACC went further this year, than last years’ early wipe-outs.
Duke goes out in the Elite Eight. (I wanted to say Sweet 16, but they are much better this year) I really don’t see them making the Final Four unless they draw some teams who just can’t play good perimeter D.
1. I have argued with Big East fans for many years over this point. Duke and Carolina carry the conference. Maryland had great run from 1997 through 2003 but have returned to mediocrity. Georgia Tech hasn’t been the same since Cremins’ leaving in 2000. Sure, they have done well in certain years, but Paul Hewitt’s teams have been inconsistent. Wake Forest has had blips of success but no real staying power. Clemson still hasn’t proven it can win a tourney game. Let’s face it the ACC is UNC and Duke. When UNC is down so is the conference. Of course, I could be proven wrong by a strong run by Maryland.
2. I believe Duke can reach the Final Four but they may find themselves in a situation similar to the Carter-Jamison Tar Heels. Both teams had players who played a lot of minutes and relied almost exclusively on three players for points. However, I am fairly certain Duke will not win the National Title. If anyone has noticed, Jon Scheyer has had a number of game during the ACC schedule where he has shot poorly. For the conference schedule, he has shot 38% from the field. Even against UNC, he shot a mere 32% from the field(an amazing 11 for 34 shooting). Remember how many times has UNC allowed random players shoot well from the perimeter. Now on to Singler, Kyle’s transition to the wing has been bumpy. While he has averaged over 17 points a game, his shooting is only 41%. Now onto Nolan Smith, during the regular season Smith has shot over 40% from downtown. However, if you look at how he has done in the ACC, that number drops to a 32%. After the big 3 the scoring for Duke drops off significantly. Brian Zoubeck is Duke’s fourth leading scorer. I shouldn’t have to go any further to explain what Zoubeck is. It really pains me to say this, but none of this gives me any confidence in Duke’s success beyond the Sweet 16.
3. It is pretty much set in stone. Georgia Tech will need a strong ACC tournament to make it as an at-large.
4. Bad: UNC has been a bad surprise. I was expecting the 1998-99 team. How sad is it that the ’98 turned out being so much better when their season ended in a first round upset against Weber State.
Good: I would say Maryland in general has been a surprise. The solid play by freshman Jordan Williams has been a major reason why the Terps are tied for first place in the ACC. In the win over Duke, Williams had 15 points, 11 boards, and 3 blocks. If Deon or Ed player with the grit and toughness of Williams, maybe we would be talking about UNC being on the bubble.
5. I agree 100%.
6. POY: Greivis Vasquez: In conference games, Vasquez has really picked up his game. He is averaging 22 points, 6.7 assists, 4.4 points per game. Also, he increased his assist to turnover ratio over last year. His field goal percentage has increased because of better decision making.
COY: agreed it has to be Gary Williams.
Charlotte losing to UMass tonight means UNC could be headed for a first round NIT game at Charlotte. UNC and UNC-Charlotte last met in in the postseason in 1998, an OT thriller, in the 2nd round of the NCAAs.
f1500…That could be a typo, but Maryland had dominant teams / title contender in 2001-2002.
FSU seemed to have a more consistent acc program under pat kennedy (who for some reason thought depaul was a greener pasture). the halcyon days of bob sura.
There are too many teams in the ACC now. The conference would be better if some of the current roster were to join another conference.
TxTarheel,
I fixed the typo. Actually, under Pat Kennedy the Seminoles only had three NCAA tournament appearances. The third appearance by Florida State was controversial given that the team was 6-10 in conference. They made up for it being reaching the second round. This season Florida State looks to go to back to back NCAA tournaments for the first time since 1993.
The ACC should trade BC to the Big East for West Virginia, and trade Miami to the SEC for South Carolina. That would give us a much tidier conference geographically that is more in line with the old Southern Conference, and would restore some big rivalries between UVa, VPI and MD and WVa; and USC with UNC and Clemson.
^It’s too bad Georgetown wasn’t DI in football because they would have been a perfect fit for the ACC over BC. Two G’Town/Maryland games a year could grow to be almost as good as 2 Duke/UNC games a year…
I was thinking that, too.
william,
Not sure if you were serious about the conference trades, but I think the ACC bosses are going to have serious reservations about trading in the 7th and 17th largest TV markets (Boston and Miami) in exchange for the 79th and 168th (Columbia SC and Clarksburg-Weston WV)
Of course, we all know it is all about money.
Believe it or not, I don’t think USC would accept membership. I am pretty sure WVa would, and they are generally good in both football and basketball, which is highly unusual, but of course the other southern states look down their noses at West Virginia, because it doesn’t have any big cities.
The only reason we didn’t get Syracuse instead of VPI, is because the Virginia legislature got involved, so at least for once, we can be glad that politicians got involved in something they should not have…. Having BC is bad enough, but having Syracuse as well would be really awful….
I’d really like to get rid of BC as I’m not sure how much money the Boston TV market brings in anyway. WVU would give the ACC the Clarksburg-Weston and the larger Charleston-Huntington which is about same size as Richmond market and bigger than Roanoke.
Honestly, that would be a fair trade. Although on paper, it would look ridiculous (7th market for 168th) but I’d be willing to accept it. I think we have to keep Miami because of Fla State and they have good TV everywhere. BC doesn’t bring us anything but bad geography and bad weather.
“WVU would give the ACC the Clarksburg-Weston and the larger Charleston-Huntington which is about same size as Richmond market and bigger than Roanoke”
Also the Pittsburgh market.
“but I think the ACC bosses are going to have serious reservations about trading in the 7th and 17th largest TV markets (Boston and Miami)”
And do you think BC and the U athletics are the #1 draws in those markets?
^ Boston is a pro town, and there are so many colleges that they all get lost in the shuffle.
BC hockey is a bigger deal up there than BC basketball. BC was in the NCAA Tournament one season I was up there and no one cared or paid attention.
WVU is very close to Pittsburgh, and also very close to DC, and the eastern part of the state is in the DC metro area and television market.
When Duke had to play WVY in DC a couple of years ago, it was almost like a home game for WVU.
The ACC essentially has the DC area with Maryland and the Virginia schools.