As the clock winds down on a forgettable 2010 season, it bears looking back and seeing, upon reflection, what the expectations were for this season vs. the reality:
(in alphabetical order)
Ed Davis
Expectation: The break-out star and potential lottery pick everyone expected. Voted pre-season All-ACC, Davis was expected to be a scoring and rebounding leader for the Tar Heels, with 17-20 ppg and 9-12 rpg not out of the question.
Reality: Ed reported to fall practice having not met his conditioning goals, but nevertheless started out like he might meet those lofty expectations with a number of 20-point outings and some strong rebounding totals early. In conference season, injuries and dwindling production slowed him even before being sidelined for the last eight games. Davis never developed any kind of shot outside of 8 feet and failed to become the game-changer people had expected. Then later in the season came the agent website snafu that gave some fuel to the rumors that he wasn’t buying into things 100% and was only biding his time until the NBA came calling.
Larry Drew II
Expectation: In a best-case scenario, develop into a pass-first point guard who could manage the game in the mold of Derrick Phelps. In a worst-case scenario, it would be Quentin Thomas II.
Reality: On paper, Drew met expectations. He averaged 8.6 points and 5.9 assists per game. His assist-to-turnover ratio was nearly 2-to-1 and he shot 42 percent from the floor and 38 percent from three for the season. But during conference play, Drew’s scoring average went up slightly but his shooting numbers dropped considerably. He was also a defensive liability for most of the season. More important, he never seemed to be a team leader, and was never someone you wanted to have the ball at the end of a game. By the end of the season, Drew’s body language was horrible and transfer rumors were surfacing (though quickly denied).
Marcus Ginyard
Expectation: Somehow Ginyard would magically channel David Noel and provide Carolina with key senior leadership while providing 12-15 points per game. Plus, he would continue to be UNC’s defensive stopper
Reality: Ginyard couldn’t become Noel. After some solid outings early, the injury bug struck yet again and he was never the same. He became a lightning rod for criticism as the Heels struggled early but was one of the few guys playing better in March than in January.
Will Graves
Expectation: A streak-shooting role player who would quickly lose his starting spot once John Henson learned the 3 position.
Reality: A streak-shooting role player who actually stepped up to the best of his ability. Graves quickly became the team’s top 3-point threat and a beast of a rebounder from the 3 position despite being a defensive liability. Very often he seemed to be the only one of the veterans playing with any sense of urgency, desire, or hustle.
John Henson
Expectation: The second coming of (insert favorite comparison here). The multi-talented Henson would quickly learn the 3 spot and leave Graves on the bench.
Reality: Tar Heel Nation’s favorite player in February and March, Henson was finally allowed to move down to the post and showed why he was so highly rated. Revisionists will excuse Henson’s early struggles and how clueless he looked early on as playing out of position and blame Roy for not playing him sooner.
Leslie McDonald
Expectation: Role player. Spot minutes at the wing.
Reality: McDonald showed flashes of the things he might could do as he develops. Became a bright spot for the Wake game and always played hard.
Dexter Strickland
Expectation: Develop into a smooth combo guard who can both score and lead the team from the point.
Reality: Up and down. Never settled into the point guard role (though he didn’t do badly) and was everyone’s favorite Tar Heel about mid-January when he was playing well and Ginyard was struggling. But given the chance to start, Strickland did not produce and was reduced to spot time by the end of the season.
Deon Thompson
Expectation: A four-year starter with two Final Fours and a national championship who would finally emerge from Tyler Hansbrough’s shadow and contribute 15 points and 8 rebounds every night, with occasional flashes of explosiveness like were witnessed last year during Hansbrough’s injury and during his international play.
Reality: Thompson never became a leader on the floor and was soft in the paint. He was frequently out-rebounded by guards and often vanished in crucial spots down the stretch of games, unless he was playing against NC State.
David Wear
Expectation: Role player. Spot minutes at the 3/4 spots. Decent wing shooter at 6-9.
Reality: Does anyone else see Dave Popson in David Wear? That’s who I think of when I watch him play. D Wear collected 10 minutes per game (which some fans think should have been going to other players) and did exactly what was expected of him before his season-ending injury.
Travis Wear
Expectation: Role player. Spot minutes at the 4/5 spots. Decent banger for 6-9.
Reality: T Wear was pressed into service due to the deep injuries in the post. His points and rebounding were as expected, but again as the team struggled, Travis played minutes many fans thought should have been going to others. Still he and David both did exactly what was asked of them.
Tyler Zeller
Expectation: Along with Thompson and Davis, would make a trio of posts that would give UNC as much power along the front line as Progress Energy. A full-speed Zeller could bang at 7 feet as well as run the floor and show everyone why he was considered almost as big of a signing as that other guy named Tyler.
Reality: Injury struck Big Z again, and he never regained the speed, stamina, or power that was expected of him. Carolina fans are still left wondering what a healthy Zeller would be like for an entire season.
Roy Williams
Expectation: Ol’ Roy would catch lightning in a bottle again, as in 2006, and like most of his teams, this team would get better as the season went on.
Reality: Ol’ Roy is just not that good. Like his team, Roy suffered with an injury and never seemed to hit his stride this season. Nothing he tried with this team worked and he was embroiled in his own little dramas this season with the Presbyterian fan and his Haiti comments.
So, as it turns out, a team that was expected to get demonstrably better as the season went along instead came apart at the seams. While this sometimes happens, it has never really happened at a place like North Carolina with the staff and talent that is here.
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I keep seeing people talking about this Vanderbilt scrimmage. Was that outing discussed on here?
I think Dave Popson was a bit higher quality of a recruit than the Wears. He was a decent performer but probably underperformed given the expectations that we had for him, which were that he might be another Bobby Jones.
Maybe I am wrong. I hope so, but I simply don’t see either the fury or the athleticism in either of the Wears needed to be a successful starter in the ACC. Bobby Jones was an athletic player. Tyler Hansbrough played with a fury, as did Eric Montross and Mitch Kupchak.
Although Wear is somewhat taller, I think David Wear’s talent upside is closer to that of a Matt Doherty, who was a three year starter back in the 1980′s.
Of course, the difference was that Smith usually played a small core of guys back then and often had one starter who seemed to be of a distinctly different class than the others: Ford, Davis, Lagarde, Kupchak, and Kuester, for example; or Worthy, Perkins, Black, Jordan, and Doherty; or Jordan, Perkins, Smith, Daugherty and Doherty.
Nevertheless, there really wasn’t any clamor to play someone besides Kuester or Doherty, the way that say Ginyard’s or Frasor’s playing time have been discussed, because there really wasn’t anyone else to put in on those teams, plus the recruiting business was less high profile, so people wondered much less if freshman X did not play much.
I do remember Popson, Jeff Lebo and Curtis Hunter as being three guys who were discussed a lot before choosing UNC and people were excited when we got them. Probably, all three ended up being disappointments, Lebo only slightly, but Hunter came in with John Henson type credentials and never was more than a bit player for UNC due to injuries and failure to develop.
Doherty and Popson had similar stats their senior years, each garnering about 10 points and 4+ boards, on teams that went undefeated in the ACC regular season, but Popson seemed to have a more complete offensive game than Doherty, and was much more efficient, playing about 50% fewer minutes, so I hope the Popson prediction turns out, at least the Popson of 1987.
the Vanderbilt scrimmage is the day one Ginyard is referring to two THF posts ago. the story is on tarheelblue.com.
^^^I don’t know how much meaningful discussion we might have from a closed scrimmage with little detail, and I can’t remember if the knowledge of our not doing well came out early on. Sounds like, from what Marcus said the other day, is was a 30 pt. whuppin’.
There was no discussion because the only thing that was known was UNC lost. It was ultimately dismissed because the team was young. No one knew at the time that UNC had lost so badly and it was an incredibly lackluster effort.
And besides that it was just a scrimmage. Heck, Syracuse dropped an exhibition game to a DII school making people think the Orange were going to suck. Look at how that turned out.
Someone on here yesterday, I think, made one of those delicious comments about having a cousin who was an equipment manager at Vanderbilt who saw the scrimmage and immediately called him and told him to cancel his Directv March Madness package–only one week left to cancel–because it was going to be a tough season for the Tar Heels.
I wish that guy had posted back in October for us, lol.
^^ I remember the Vandy secret scrimmage being discussed, but the word at the time was that it was only a 10 to 19pt loss not a 30pt drubbing. The consensus on the blog was that DrewII was most likely very erratic in trying to get a feel for the PG position and that Roy probably experimented with a lot of different lineups that would get ironed out by the time the season started.
It’s amazing how DrewII’s stats were exactly what I hoped for, but the play at the position and the team was still so underwhelming considering he was the only one that ever made any assists (look at team assists YTY and it shows how many more assists the other positions outside of PG contributed in prior years versus this season) and the only one who could somewhat create a shot for himself or anyone else on the team. This teams biggest problem was no one could get easy shots either for themselves or a teammate and every player either had to be wide open or catch the ball in the perfect spot to even have a chance to score. Then add in being an awful shooting team to boot and I’m surprised that they ever scored over 60pts.
^^^
so, perhaps, Boeheim isnt on the sideline in game 31 diagramming the 2-3 zone. some learning took place.
just sayin.
***
^ for whatever reason, passing or catching or both, there are going to be about 1.2 fewer assists per game. maybe thats a lot? i dunno. LD2 has 38% of this year’s assists. Strick isnt getting many, but neither did many PGs or werent named Ty or Ed or Ray, esp as freshmen.
I am a big stats guy, but a sport like baseball is made for statistical analysis because each player’s actions are basically discreet. Basketball can never be summarized by stats the way baseball can.
I think in the book Basketball on Paper, the author discusses Derrick Coleman, who made $100 million dollars playing and always had good numbers, and yet, whatever team had him seemed to actually play better whenever he got hurt.
Larry Drew looks like he should be better than he is, compared to, say, Quentin Thomas, who always seemed uncomfortable on the court at this point in his career. In my opinion, the window is closing rapidly on Drew’s future. If he does not get off to a substantially better start next year, he might just end up on the bench for the rest of his college career.
I think that one guy who has never gotten enough credit from UNC fans is Reyshawn Terry. Maybe because he was overshadowed by Felton, Lawson, McCants and Ellington, or because he was only a two year player, or whatever.
For a guy who had essentially never played, to come in and play the way he did in 2006 and 2007 was really key. He was good on offense and defense, and obviously, far better than guys like Ginyard and Frasor, who were more highly recruited.
“This teams biggest problem was no one could get easy shots either for themselves or a teammate and every player either had to be wide open or catch the ball in the perfect spot to even have a chance to score. Then add in being an awful shooting team to boot and I’m surprised that they ever scored over 60pts.”
Good nutshell about our offense.
I have thought, and commented on, how hard we have had to work to get decent shots. When you consider the degree of difficulty and the way many of them were just awkwardly shot (Z could improve a lot on this one), it’s not surprising how few we scored.
I took a quick look at the 1994 team because I think there are parallels, not so much in terms of talent, but in terms of having so many guys who are essentially close to being equal in talent.
One thing Dean did during that era was to start a guy like Rodl or Salvidori, but then play a substitute just as many minutes. Rodl and Salvidori both averaged about 20 minutes their senior years. On Roy’s teams, there seems to be a higher correlation between starting and minutes. It was a big deal whether Green started or not, because Ginyard was getting several more minutes a game than Green.
It is also interesting to see how several members of the 1994 team seemed to handle sharing time with the new freshmen. Some seemed to handle the situation fine, among them Phelps and Salvidori, who both improved their productivity. Ultimately, it was Reese and Montross, who doomed that team, with a big fall-off in offensive production, with Donald Williams being slightly worse, as well.
Stackhouse put up monster numbers in only 20 minutes a game and might have averaged close to a double double had he played 30+ minutes. Reese, on the other hand, shot less than 20% from three point range, and about 50%! from the free throw line.
I think this is primarily what people have to point to, if you want to note that Dean did make mistakes at times in terms of playing time. You have to wonder what might have happened if Reese had suffered an injury the way Frasor did, clearing the way for Stackhouse’s minutes. Montross didn’t fall off the way Stackhouse did, but for some reason, he lost his free throw stroke, going from 68% to 56%.
What surprised me is that no one really stepped up, as far as team leadership went, among Drew, Thompson, and Ginyard. I thought someone would step up, maybe not to the same extent as David Noel, but more than they did. This is the first Carolina team in ages where there was no one you’d immediately think of to take that last shot for the win in a game.
All the injuries meant there was no consistency to the team. The freshmen couldn’t pull it all together in time. Again, had Henson played the 4 all year… who knows? Ed Davis being healthy all year would have fixed a lot of the problems, too.
Zeller can talk to Damion Grant about injuries.
Coach Williams can call Coach Lowe to sympathize about injuries and team chemistry.
BOTH guards were defensive liabilities, but one of them was a senior touted as a dominating defensive stopper. Perimeter defense was terrible. At one point in the season(first 6 games of 2010), it was reported that out guards were being outscored by 21.7 points per game. Stats such as these rely heavily upon the presentation. Digging deeper, it turned out that the PG was responsible for 6 of those points and the SG for 15.7. I’m just pointing this out because I think that the article above calls one player out but not the most deserving one.
“What surprised me is that no one really stepped up, as far as team leadership went, among Drew, Thompson, and Ginyard.”
Drew has played under the biggest microscope in the history of UNC basketball … even McCants did not undergo such scrutiny.
You can not win big time games in college basketball, with the production we were getting out of our starting back court. We went from having the best backcourt in the country, to one of the worst.
Stats don’t always tell the tale, Drew had decent stats, but failed to produce in the clutch, and really never took over any game. Plus his matador defense on Nolan Smith, was down right disgraceful.
We have a game tomorrow night at 7:00. Anybody want to join my family in cheering them on, even if it might be for the last time this year?
“…really never took over any game…”
This thread is expectation vs reality. Was that your expectation going into the season? On what did you base that?
The basis was that he is the starting PG @ UNC, and that is a major part of your job, taking over a game isnt always about scoring, but running the show, getting the team involved, and playing great d.
That was my basis boulderheel
Drew has played under the biggest microscope in the history of UNC basketball. BOLD statement.
Raymond came in has a high recruit after the team went 8-20, and had a huge microscope.
Curry was another big recruit, that played with the same type of pressure.
And dont forget Mr. Barnes next year, he too will be watch and desected just like, if not more than Larry.
You accept the scholly to play PG @ UNC, the pressure comes with the job, so spare me the Larry has it hard shtick, it comes with the territory, and he has shown not to be able to handle it.
I can’t argue with hand waving.
“This thread is expectation vs reality. Was that your expectation going into the season? On what did you base that?”
Great Point.
“The basis was that he is the starting PG @ UNC, and that is a major part of your job, taking over a game isnt always about scoring, but running the show, getting the team involved, and playing great d.”
History tells us that taking over the game is not automatically given to the PG position at UNC, otherwise, Carolina never would have won Championships or played in Final Fours with point guards like Karl, Black, Phelps, McInnis, Rice, and Cota.
The only point guards that Carolina has ever really had that took over a game were Ford, Smith, Felton, and Lawson, which are the 4 best point guards in UNC’s history. If you expected DrewII to be one of the 4 best point guards in UNC’s history then I think your expectations were greatly exaggerated.
Because he was the PG for UNC, was Drew expected to do a solid job of running the show, getting the team involved, score when needed, and play great D, hell yes. But I would not see taking over the game as a requirement for the UNC PG position, unless you have the talent of Lawson or Felton running the show.
“Raymond came in has a high recruit after the team went 8-20, and had a huge microscope.”
Raymond’s team was not ranked in the Top 5 and expected to contend for an ACC Title his first season. After coming off the 8-20 debacle expectations were to see drastic improvements in talent at the PG position and to play in the NCAAT. Drew followed arguably the best point guard in school history that just had the best season ever for a PG at UNC, but everyone still expected Drew to lead a team that would play a major role in defending its title. That is a pretty damn big microscope to be under for a 4 star player and much larger microscope than expecting a 5 star player to drastically improve the talent at the PG position from the prior season.
My expectation of Larry was to play solid D, and make his team mates better, and he has trouble doing both
Still disagree that Larry was under the biggest microscope, Raymond Felton was touted as a Program savior, and asked to bring UNC back to dominance, Larry has only been ask to lead, play good D, and not sucked to bad.
I am with you all the way wildhores GO HEELS
“My expectation of Larry was to play solid D, and make his team mates better, and he has trouble doing both”
That is different than “taking over the game”, which was boulder’s original point.
“Still disagree that Larry was under the biggest microscope, Raymond Felton was touted as a Program savior, and asked to bring UNC back to dominance”
Easier to do when your reference point is an 8 win season, with that season as a base winning 18 games and making the tournament would have seemed dominate at that point.
” Larry has only been ask to lead, play good D, and not sucked to bad.”
Plus win games at a similar pace as his predecessor PG who just guided the best 3 year stretch in UNC history, and do it with less talent.
“and do it with less talent.”
and do it with lesser & lesser talent–he was developing a nice chemistry w/Ed Davis before he went out. LD will be fine.
LD will be fine sitting on the bench unless he makes a huge improvement on his play since early January.
Honestly, Larry Drew has made a huge jump in his offensive rating over last year. That is the good news.
The bad news is that he was just plain awful last year, and thus, it would take another improvement of the same magnitude next year just to get to the point where UNC players are generally considered good offensive players. Last year, he was terrible, even when surrounded by the best team in the country.
How terrible? Only Quentin Thomas in 2005 has had a comparably bad offensive season since Williams has been coach, and basically, Thomas and Drew had seasons that are far and away the worst in the Williams era in terms of offensive efficiency.
This year he was mediocre at best, when surrounded by a mediocre team. No one seems to think he plays good defense.
Probably the best hope for Drew is that he does improve a bit more, and perhaps having a core of better performing guys will make his improvement appear even greater in terms of offensive efficiency.
I really doubt it, though. Drew wasn’t all that highly recruited. I think the hope was that maybe his bloodlines made him better than his rating by the scouts, but it certainly has not so far.
My expectation is that Drew will be a back-up the rest of his career at UNC, unless Marshall disappoints expectations.
“LD will be fine sitting on the bench unless he makes a huge improvement on his play since early January.”
no argument there, and I think he will, but it remains to be seen.
“The bad news is that he was just plain awful last year, and thus, it would take another improvement of the same magnitude next year just to get to the point where UNC players are generally considered good offensive players. Last year, he was terrible, even when surrounded by the best team in the country.”
indeed, and he got precious little playing time which seems not to matter to his detractors.
“This year he was mediocre at best, when surrounded by a mediocre team. No one seems to think he plays good defense.”
how can one argue the 1st sentence? as to the 2nd, again his detractors don’t notice anything he does well on offense OR defense so how the hell would “they” know?
“Probably the best hope for Drew is that he does improve a bit more, and perhaps having a core of better performing guys will make his improvement appear even greater in terms of offensive efficiency.”
certainly I hope he & Roy have his sights set a bit higher than someone who doesn’t believe in him to start with.
“I really doubt it, though. Drew wasn’t all that highly recruited. I think the hope was that maybe his bloodlines made him better than his rating by the scouts, but it certainly has not so far.”
here we go–now getting to the core. neither was Hubert Davis but he turned out pretty well.
“My expectation is that Drew will be a back-up the rest of his career at UNC, unless Marshall disappoints expectations.”
maybe so-I hope Marshall does push him–Larry’s got a lazy streak for sure, but he also has a lot more potential than many seem capable of observing.
We have had a few of these sons and relatives of former ACC and NBA players. Salvidori and Hubert Davis turned out pretty well. Hopefully, McAdoo 2 will too. Ed Davis started out really well. I probably am forgetting someone else, but if Drew can equal Hubert Davis, I think he and everyone else will be happy. I will keep my mortgage in the safety deposit box, however….
My main problem with the team is this, we know they do not have great offense but they could have played great defense everyday if they wanted to. This team left the defensive heavy-lifting more than once on Ed Davis and later, on John Henson. Thompson was conspicuously absent at the paint in defense, and Ginyard was absent on the perimeter. Even LD2, Strick disappeared on the defense at times. The defensive lapses were so glaring that it was like watching local school kids play, rather than an elite team like UNC.
^^How about Sean and Scott May? That’s a great father-son combo.
Suffice it to say that the realities of this season did not meet the expectations of fans, alumns, players or coaches but did provide ammo for Dookies and the hated ABC “fans”. Move on. We have some highly regarded recruits coming in to fill the gaps for next season and our program will soon be restored to the level of past glories. Go Heels! Beat Ga. Tech!!
May was probably our best, although the Davis’s probably had the best pro careers.
I think my expectations were too high. I thought Strickland and McDonald would be as productive as these two freshmen guards:
http://espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=45974
http://espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=45973
Being a lifelong Heels fan, I have been mostly disappointed with the lack of effort. Even in years that Carolina lacked top level talent, they were able to achieve wins with hard work, teamwork and extreme effort. I was proud to be in attendance for the win over NCSU and to see all of the Tar Heel basketball alumni march out onto the court. Seeing them and remembering way more of them than I care to admit made me think about the pride of wearing the uniform, the honor of stepping onto the court and joining that fraternity. If that does not motivate you to exceed your own personal expectations and push your level of effort to the max, then I just can’t imagine what would. I’m proud of our Tar Heels. The program, players and staff are part of a legacy that is not only a state jewel, but an internationally known brand that renders images of Jordan’s tongue wagging as he double pump dunks; or Walter Davis’s 35 foot bank shot that I must have shot a million times as a kid; or the Heels scoring 8 points in less than 20 seconds to tie and eventually defeat Duke; or James Worthy driving down the lane with that one handed stuff; or Phil Ford dribbling the basketball all over and driving for a pop-up 15 footer; or Mike Okoren diving all over the place for loose balls; or Eric Montross’ bloddy face from the wars; or.. anyone care to add to this ? We are the Tar Heels. Down, yes, but proud owners of a legacy that is unequaled in college sports. Keep your chin up fellow ‘Heels.
wildhorses –
Darn right I’ll be rooting them on. This will not be because of middle school boosterism or a refusal to see the season for the unwanted experience, to put it mildly, it has become.
It’s because winning the game is the only thing that will assure us of a non-losing season.
If we lose it, we’ll have an even record, with a chance that we’ll go to the NIT. If we do, and lose the first game there, we’ll have a losing record.
If we win Thursday’s game, by contrast, we will be two games over .500. Then, even if things break as badly as they could, we will still have a non-losing record. Specifically, we could go on to lose Friday’s ACCT game, and the first game in the NIT, and we’d wind up at 17-17.
That I’d find myself hoping, on March 10, for a non-losing record is just mind boggling. This is not the Carolina that ncbluesky244 reminds us of. It has not done honor to its legacy, and there’s no use trying to plant a smiley face on it or hector fans into attempting to do so. The problem with this season is not the fan base nor its alleged “negativity.” The problem is with the team’s on-court performance. Period.
So by all means we should root them on, and I will, like almost everyone else here (I would guess) be doing just that.
One good thing about this year is that it’s very easy to be an expert on why things went so badly — because this team did so little right. My way of summarizing it, developed gradually and painfully, is this: our players simply aren’t as good as we thought, they didn’t play smart, they didn’t play hard, and they didn’t play together. (Or to be even more succinct you could just say they couldn’t score and wouldn’t play defense.)
I’ve been watching UNC play basketball for forty years, and I don’t recall a previous team, including the 8-20 year, when so many unpressured passes wound up in the fourth row, when so many bounce passes hit guys in the feet, when so many of our infrequent accurate passes were fumbled away, and when we gave up so many easy baskets on inbounds plays. How can you expect a team to shoot well when they can’t even throw and catch the ball? (And not a little ball, a big one.) Or play adequate defense when they can’t even defend the inbounds? And to top it off this team’s post men invented a shot new to the game of basketball: the fall-away layup.
There’s only one thing left to say about 2009-10: dadgummit all.
DatH
I read yet another take on UNC’s season, recently – that they just weren’t good at the “out-scoring the other team” part of the game.
I think that’s the one I’m going to settle on.
It’s very succinct and gives me a lot more leisure time by replacing my current 13-minute monologue.
When is the first day that Barnes can become a tarheel?
^when he’s enrolled, i imagine. is that what you mean? midnight madness?
^^i looked at this a couple weeks ago. 3 point shooting.
we’re now on pace, if it were a 38 game year like last year, to attempt 137 fewer 3s. thats a solid 4 a game. 4 3s that the D doesnt have to defend, or found it easy to defend, or whatever.
shooting fewer, and at a lesser percentage, just doesnt put the same kind of pressure on the defense. they packed it in on us all year.
we were running that sag D to stop dribble penetration, and if thats what teams were doing to us, well that worked out great. we arent GOOD at dribble penetration, or outside shooting, and our bigs werent going to be able to hold the ball when confronted with any sort of pressure.
then you add the 128 fewer made FTs. thats 3 points a game. plus the 2 3s not made a game, and you have 9 points a game missing just in those two columns. (so you arent shooting from 3, you arent driving, you arent getting to the line by being aggressive, and you arent getting the opposition in as much foul trouble.)
this year’s team may end the year with about 40 more FT attempts than last year’s FTs MADE.
lets round up Danny 3 pts to 500, and we had 4 guys scoring 500-700 pts last year.
this year, Deon leads with 426, and basically Davis and Graves with 300, altho Ed would break 400 if not hurt.
simply no points, and no dangerous players.
ACC games are the ones to focus on…
this year’s team scoring 21 fewer points per ACC game than last year.
***
good lacrosse game tonight. UNC defeats dook @ dook. hehe!!
^^Barnes already is a Tar Heel, as is Bullock and Marshall
-When an athlete signs a national letter of intent, they are bound to the university. The only thing left to be formalized is for the NCAA to officially declare them eligible. (After graduation, etc.)
-A player is allowed up to 2 hours of individual
skill development training, outside of season, with coaches
-The official opening of practice is the Friday nearest the 15th of Oct.
-Pickup games or play (I think the term for this is “open gyms”), out-of-season, are common , but cannot be supervised or observed by any coaches or staff, or take on the form of organized practice.
HTTE, that gets to the point of why I think that all the hand wringing about distribution of minutes and lineups amounts to shuffling chairs on the Titanic. If Henson got more minutes earlier and had been at the four, that would have been great, but the team still couldn’t score. If Ginyard sat and Strickland started, the team couldn’t score. If the Wears were still in Huntington Beach and no where near Chapel Hill, the team couldn’t score. I believe that every scholarship player except Justin Watts had a chance to do something this year and none of them were able to get points consistently enough to make this anything other than a mediocre to bad basketball team. That’s not to say that they can’t improve at offense, but I have serious doubts as to whether any one who is on the roster this season can be a go to scorer. Strickland Zeller and McDonald have shown flashes offensively, but who knows if they are anything more than flashes. Barnes and Bullock are probably going to have to provide quite a bit for us in that area.
LarryS, if the players have an unofficial pickup game, are coaches allowed to observe the game at all? I’m curious about a situation at another school that I saw a few years ago.
^^could be. altho, we had a hard time scoring in the 2nd half of the ACC season because of injuries.
no one expected 88 pts a game from this team, but you can offset some of that with D, and of course, that didnt happen either.
the new guys will bring scoring, maybe some better D, and we can be off and running again, i think. it would not shock me at all if Barnes is a Top 5 ACC scorer. not expecting anything yet, but it wouldnt shock me.
^^No. (Unless there are special circumstances I’m unaware of) I revised my post to include “observed”
There are workouts that can be observed by coaches, once school starts, but the number of players that can be on the floor with a ball are limited.
There are a bunch of rules, tied to a timetable leading up to Oct. 15 practice, but I just know a few.
Here are some examples that might give more insight.
http://ncaabasketball.fanhouse.com/2009/11/18/numerous-ncaa-violations-surface-at-south-florida/
Now wait a minute, Marcus. Are you really trying to say our scoring wouldn’t have improved if the Wears were still in Huntington Beach?
(That was pretty funny.)
I agree about defense, HTTE, I just was keeping that comment focused on the offense. I feel like the team has shown that they are capable of playing defense, but they are obviously inconsistent there as well. I guess I’m more confident in this groups ability to be a good defense than offense.
LarryS, if that is the case I’m pretty sure that I saw an NCAA violation in the progress. It looked fishy to me at the time I saw it.
^Turn ‘em in.
No, there may be certain sanctioned, out-of-season events, at certain times, coaches can observe, but I just don’t know what they are. I’m just stating the general restriction.
Except for defending the three and maybe defending drives to the basket, the defense has not been that terrible, although still worse than last year. The offense has really taken a much bigger tumble.
Has anyone seen this article. It is pretty good.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/03/09/1302277/a-season-most-disappointing.html
“I guess I’m more confident in this groups ability to be a good defense than offense. ”
Then this team will never be successful in a Roy Williams system, offensive efficiency is a must for a Roy Williams coached basketball team.
I think Roy took for granted in the last couple of recruiting classes the value of being able to shoot the basketball. He actually mentions it in the Observer article. Being able to shoot the basketball can cure a lot of the ills from ball handling, rebounding, and defensive lapses. And you can see that with each of the next two recruiting classes Roy has at least one player who is considered one of the best if not the best perimeter shooters in the class. I think not having multiple guys that can shoot the basketball will be an oversight that Roy will not be making anytime in the near future with his program.
The ugly fact is that this team, and most of these players, will never be successful. Roy knows it. That is why he is suddenly active with a couple of HS guards that he had not previously recruited, and I’m guessing there is more intensive late recruiting going on that hasn’t been discussed yet. Roy knows he screwed up in the talent evaluation department and is working to fix it.
^”The ugly fact is that this team, and most of these players, will never be successful. Roy knows it.”
Wow. Pretty strong statement.
Seems like you’re resigned to them being stuck just as they are and never improving. I really can’t think of anyone on this team that is so obviously incapable of being successful at the position they were recruited for, and considering the expectations of their initial HS rankings. Sure, most of them will not be stars, but I’d at least give them a little more time before making these kinds of declarations.
If recruiting mistakes were made, they were more of the nature of an imbalance of types of players, or a mixture of skill sets, as opposed to the individuals in particular. And, has been said, there are not unlimited choices of being able to get whomever we want.
What HS guards are you talking about being recruited , and for when?
Started a post, then realized it made no sense. (That really never stopped me before, lol.)
Sometimes I wish we could immediately delete the entire post.
Brandon Knight, ’10, rumored to have been contacted by us; Marquis Teague, ’11, contacted but not yet offered. I say Drew, Strickland, the Wears, and posibly McDonald are not front line players. The Wears can possibly contribute to an otherwise talented team. Strickland is a huge project. I hope he will be successful, but he looks to me like a guy who should be in a mid-major league, not here. Same is true of Drew. Jury is out on McDonald. We need better players (duh) and Roy clearly knows it.
If Roy is seriously recruiting Brandon Knight, that means he must think a scholarship is available for next year. If that scholarship is filled, and if all underclassmen stay next year, we will be over-committed for 2012. A true juggling act.
“We need better players (duh)”
I thought Marshall, Barnes, and Bullock were those better players. If Roy is pursuing other 5 star point guards in the current class and next year’s class then that would be just as much of a condemnation on Marshall’s talent as it is on Drew or Strickland’s talent, considering Marshall hasn’t even arrived on campus yet and his coach is already trying to recruit over him.
^^That is what makes the one-and-done rule so terrible. If Davis left early and Roy were able to get Knight (which is so unlikely it’s hard for me to even type), he would then be in a position of hoping that Henson, Barnes or Knight left early next year, so that he was not over-committed in 2012. However, in the same scenario, he would also have to deal with the very real probability that ALL 3 players left after next year (Barnes and Knight are predicted to go 1-2 in the 2011 draft), leaving UNC very depleted in 2012, but unable to legitimately recruit anyone because of potential over-saturation.
Hopefully the new NBA CBA will expand to a 2-year rule, like both the owners and the union appear to be in favor of.
^Unless there is a transfer(s) coming that would open additional scholarships……….
Teague says UNC has contacted him recently. He is one class behind Marshall. Roy is not going to get stuck again with having only one point guard. I agree it is unlikely we would get Knight, and the rumor that we have contacted him is just that, a rumor. It would be nice to have him, though. Like I said, we need better players, and the three for next year is a great start, but we need more.
“I do believe it has been a different fuel, but a more powerful fuel, because as much as I enjoyed winning a national championship in ’05, and how satisfying and what a relief winning a national championship [was] in ’09 – I dislike this far, far more than I enjoyed those.”
So to be fair, THF, many of us feel exactly the same way Roy does. Like him, we haven’t forgotten winning last year….
on the radio show Monday, Roy was asked if he was looking at Knight.
“No.”