Interesting to say the least.
Inside Carolina broke the news yesterday that Roy Williams was jumping into the race for Scout.com’s #1 rated SG in the class of 2011, Austin Rivers. Rivers is the son of Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers and also happens to already be committed to Florida. If Roy moving on a kid who is already committed makes you uncomfortable or strikes you as odd, you are not the only one. As it turns out, Roy received permission from the family before initiating contact. The word is that Roy has talked to Rivers on the phone, been to see him workout and offered him a scholarship. That last one has sent many heads spinning in the past twelve hours for one simple reason: Roy is offering a scholarship that is technically not there. Such a move creates all kinds of speculation which we at THF will happily indulge. UNC already has two 2011 commits in P.J. Hairston and James McAdoo which technically puts them at 14 for the 2011-12 season. It is widely assumed that Ed Davis will be gone by then, if not now, for sure next season. That brings UNC down to 13 scholarships. However, if Rivers has been offered that means UNC would be back up to 14(assuming Davis leaves) which begs the question: Where is the other scholarship coming from?
Possibility #1: Roy knows someone besides Davis is leaving after this season.
This is the scenario with the least risk involved. Roy figured Davis will be gone and he knows right now someone else will be leaving the team via transfer. The first name that comes to mind is Larry Drew who has been at the center of multiple transfer rumors. Of course Drew denied said rumors and his play in the NIT has seen him look more comfortable with the situation. Another potential loss is David Wear who had surgery on his hip and for all we know might not make it back. Wear could apply for medical hardship and free up a scholarship if he is unable to return to action. A third possibility is Justin Watts. There are rumors on the message boards that he might want to play elsewhere where he could see more playing time. Watts actually makes the most sense given Roy is chasing an SG here. If it were Drew, you might assume he would attempt to grab a PG though it could be that the interest between Rivers and UNC is mutual which is why Roy is even in the mix to begin with.
Possibility #2: Roy is gambling on multiple defections after 2010-11
This is a riskier proposition than knowing right now the scholarship is going to open up. However, it stands to reason that the odds are in Roy’s favor. As noted above, Davis’ scholarship will very likely be open. If the wrist injury precludes Davis from making the jump this season, he will make it following the 2011 season. The other possible NBA defections are John Henson following his sophomore season and Harrison Barnes after his freshman season. Henson is already showing how insane his potential is so it would be a safe bet to believe he might go to the NBA after the 2011 season. Barnes is projected as the #1 pick in 2011 NBA mock drafts. He would be a fool to stay in school if that is the case a year from now. In this respect Roy is playing the odds that the scholarship is going to be there for Rivers. If it isn’t, then it might not work out so well for Justin Watts.
Possibility #3: Roy will cross that bridge when he gets to it
Basically Roy has decided he is not going to get caught without enough perimeter players ever again so he is going to over recruit and figure out the details later. Adding Rivers would create a glut of three five star recruits at the SG slot in 2011-12. If I were Roy, I would rather have that problem than the one UNC has had this year where a lack of perimeter shooting has consistently killed the team. Again, if we assume Davis is gone and for some reason Henson and Barnes are still around, crossing that bridge might mean pulling Watts’ scholarship. I have a hard time believing it would come to that but weighed against having another season like 2010, Roy might be willing to go down that road. Let us also not forget that Roy has been down this path before. In 2004 it appeared he was going to have 14 scholarship players and JameSon Curry decided to commit a felony and J.R. Smith went to the NBA. Roy said at one point last year when the media was apoplectic over Butch Davis’ scholarship numbers that it usually works itself out. That thinking may be in play here. A quality player is available so why not go after him and the numbers will likely work out when the time comes.
The really nice part of all of this is (1) this is a great problem for a program to have and (2) I am pretty sure Roy knows what he is doing. There are many details we, as fans, do not have which probably renders most of what I have written moot. I tend to lean more towards the first possibility than any of the others simply because I am not sure Roy would stake out scholarships that might not be there when the time comes. Then again, Roy has said the numbers tend to work themselves out. Rivers would be a nice addition alongside Hairston and Reggie Bullock with the latter likely moving over to SF to accommodate since the SG and SF basically do the same things in Roy’s offense. For now we wait and speculate wildly over something that might be much ado about nothing by the time it is all over with.
![[Bloglines]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/bloglines.png)
![[del.icio.us]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/delicious.png)
![[Digg]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/digg.png)
![[Facebook]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/facebook.png)
![[MySpace]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/myspace.png)
![[Technorati]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/technorati.png)
![[Windows Live]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/windowslive.png)
![[Yahoo!]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/yahoo.png)
![[Email]](http://www.tarheelblog.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/email.png)
Watts should transfer to ECU or App State. He could play there, help an alum out and still stay a part of the family. He’s been in the dog house all year and there’s no light at the end of his tunnel in terms of playing time. I tend to agree with you though, Roy knows what he’s doing and it will all work itself out. I just hope Rivers doesn’t end up at dook.
Roy going after a recruit in the 2011 class is not as intriguing to me as the fact that he’s going after one who’s committed. One would have to think that there had been some history with Austin Rivers and his family, and something has changed to resurrect those discussions. It’s hard to guess, not knowing the full extent of their relationship and what has been said between them. Nevertheless, it still seems odd.
It’s fun at this point, until we know more, to contemplate the different scenarios that would have brought a recruitment about. If it’s not apparent in the near future, then we’ll know there’s more guesswork involved from Roy’s side, unless someone has definitely told him they were leaving after next year.
I hope the fear factor of never having another year like this hasn’t caused Roy to overreact, possibly causing a problem down the line. I do imagine, though, he has everything under control.
Much as the John Wall rumors were hot and heavy last year, the conversations at Speculation R Us will be very lively over the coming days or weeks.
^^i dont know that Watts is in the doghouse, or its just a case of there’s only so much pt to go ’round.
with Davis, Henson, Barnes, Bullock and even Marshall as POSSIBLE players who wont be here in two years, it doesnt seem like that huge a scholarship gamble.
and there are reports that Rivers is the one that cracked the door on further recruiting, and not just for Roy.
see ya Watts.
whatever happens I hope Rivers comes–I love me some Doc, and surely the apple doesn’t fall far.
Watts transferring makes since, playing for Central in his home town seems like a logical landing spot. In the end, Roy is pretty good at this recruiting thing (except maybe for signing 2 role players in the post this season vs. another outside shooter), so I’m pretty sure he has it all under control. Roy is not a Banker or Lawyer he is a basketball coach, so he most likely has done the proper analysis of the situation and is taking the appropriate action.
As much as we’ve dissected this years recruiting class, Roy pretty much got what was expected:
Henson – future star (except in post vs. hoping he could play the wing)
Strickland – athletic, speedy guard that could be a difference maker
McDonald – athletic wing with a nice shot that could be an All-ACC type performer by his senior season (if he does not follow the Marcus Ginyard offseason program for development)
Wears – 2 big role players with sound fundamentals in the post (just didn’t need 2 of them)
just fun:
http://www.nike.com/sportswear/colors/lawson_1_1024x768.jpg
Larry,
From what I have pieced together, the contact came from Doc Rivers who gave Roy permission to recruit his son. The interest is mutual and started from Rivers’ side.
^^awesome Ty ad, only one Carolina Blue, Rhode Island will learn this on tuesday
^^ Thanks for the additional info, THF. That makes much more sense.
^^^^I agree about getting basically what we expected, recruit-wise, with the minor exception of Dexter. (IMHO Dexter had more to do with learning curve and position mismatch than overall ability…still has to work on his shooting.) Some of the early season characterizations of John, maybe being overrated, were way premature.
“still has to work on his shooting”
That statement could be applied to the entire roster. The position mismatch definitely impacted Strickland’s contribution, but in the end he is the same athletic, speedy 4 star recruit that everyone anticipated showing up on campus, just with maybe a little less accurate jump shot than what was hoped for in the preseason.
Still if I said before the season that the DrewII and Strickland combo would avg 14pts and 8 assists a game, I think most of us would have taken that in a heart beat. I think our expectations got a little skewed early in that ACC season when we expected the 14-16pt games from Strickland to be the norm vs. the exception due to the production of other players in the lineup dropping off considerably.
I recall that when Roy was at Kansas, he had some not very nice things to say about Billy Donovan — basically accusing him of recruiting violations. If, and that’s a big “if,” Roy steels a recruit from Donovan, I’m sure that would make Roy grin from ear to ear.
I vote for Scenario #3.
Being over-booked is a nice problem to have if the players are worth it. I also doubt Roy would pull a scholly from a kid who already has one. Hairston is an in-state kid so he may take the Wes Miller route and “walk-on” for one year if worse came to worse.
As we have learned with Butch Davis, these things have a way of working themselves out.
“Hairston is an in-state kid so he may take the Wes Miller route and “walk-on” for one year if worse came to worse.”
Why would you have the 5 star in-state kid walk on, when you basically have a true in-state walk on in Watts on the roster?
sc11,
What side of whose bed did you wake up on today? Not enough lovin’ from the Mrs or does the man got you down?
“Still if I said before the season that the DrewII and Strickland combo would avg 14pts and 8 assists a game, I think most of us would have taken that in a heart beat.”
Maybe, maybe not.
True, that doesn’t sound too bad, particularly the assists, but I would have preferred more than 14 points between a SG and a PG, with 46 MPG between them. Their point productions, per minute played, were among the lowest on the team.(Only D. Wear and Marcus were lower)
No use crying over spilled milk, but I just thought Dexter would have better offensive efficency this year than he ended up having.
The way he is finishing up the tail end of this year is very encouraging though.
“Why would you have the 5 star in-state kid walk on, when you basically have a true in-state walk on in Watts on the roster?”
Agreed, and would be a slap in the face, and future recruits would take notice.
5 star kids dont walk on, I am sure State would have no problem finding a scholarship for PJ, if that was the case.
“Not enough lovin’ from the Mrs”
Nope, and I promise I’ll buy you breakfast next time TarHeel8486.
“with Davis, Henson, Barnes, Bullock and even Marshall as POSSIBLE players who wont be here in two years, it doesnt seem like that huge a scholarship gamble”
I gave check in the “like” box for this comment. I agree, I can’t imagine offering one more scholly for 2011 is a gamble at all. We haven’t seen Bullock, Marshall or Barnes at the college level but I agree that Davis and Henson would be interesting to NBA teams.
I generally cringe when I see Tar Heels transfer out, although Drew transferring would make me cringe much more than Watts. Justin could certainly play at the SoCon level. I just think it raises a red flad around the program unless it’s a situation like Alex Stephenson’s.
If Seth Curry proves to be as good as his brother, Roy is definitely going to need offensive weapons. I hate to say it, because I didn’t like it at the time, but Roy may be following the Bill Self/K mode of recruiting where you over-recruit and then make them transfer.
^I don’t see any problem with recruiting a lot of good players, unless the coach has promised them a certain amount of PT that they don’t end up getting.
Isn’t the player the one who is taking a chance he might get beat out, but is willing to do it to go to a really good program?
Draft Express has Henson #11 overall in 2011. Barnes is #1.
Like I said, I think the odds still favor Roy over-recruiting, especially since he is looking to bring in immediate impact players which is what the #1 SG in the class should be. The only issue is being too young but UK is proving at the moment that is not a problem as much as it used to be.
It will be interesting to see if Roy uses a scholarship on players like Watts again. Basically he did the same thing will Terry and Graves but both of them turned out to be pretty good with some experience. I am not sure Watts is going to get there and one thing is certain the PT is not going to be there for him to find out.
One of the reasons Duke was in a position to get a player like Seth Curry is because they have a steady stream of transfers from guys who find out in their first year at Duke it is not going to work out.
[...] after his freshman year, but that’s just more PT for any potential recruit to take. Some have raised questions about whether Carolina will have enough scholarships, as Roy has already offered Rivers one that [...]
“Why would you have the 5 star in-state kid walk on, when you basically have a true in-state walk on in Watts on the roster?”
“Agreed, and would be a slap in the face, and future recruits would take notice.”
Does anyone really think Roy Williams would actually pull someone’s scholarship because there’s a bigger name on line two? That’s not how he operates, and I think future recruits would take notice of that as well.
Again, I just suggested Hairston walking on as a worst-case scenario. I have all confidence that Roy knows what he is doing and things will ultimately shake out properly.
Like I said before, Watts is going to transfer. His tweets were public a while back and now they are protected. I don’t want him to transfer, I like him.
Well, after having brushed up my knowledge of the redshirt rules slightly I have to ask, why not redshirt Watts instead of yanking his scholarship or asking him to transfer? I do realize that normally redshirts are only done for injuries or for incoming freshman but it is not unheard of for a player to redshirt a season other then the freshman year even without injury issues. From the little bit of research I have done, apparently the very first college athlete to redshirt way back in 1937 did so his sophomore year, not his freshman year, and he did so for reasons not related to injuries.
That being said, I really have to wonder if David Wear is coming back or if he might at least miss more then one season. Hip injuries are tricky at best and as I have pointed out here previously it was a pretty minor looking hip injury(at least at the time of the injury) that ended Bo Jackson’s football and baseball career. If the prognosis were really positive for David you have to believe that UNC would be putting the word out about it. Instead the answers being given about David are vague and incomplete at best.
We might keep Henson until his junior year but if he keeps developing at the same pace he currently is that will be about as much as we can expect from him. I can’t see any way in the world that Davis will stay after his junior year, if he even comes back. Of course people are talking about Barnes as one and done but I think THAT is premature. We still haven’t seen the kid play against college level competition after all. Like Roy said, ultimately the numbers will work out I’m sure.
If the Rivers family came to Roy I have no problem with him recruiting the kid. I wonder what has them upset or at least has given them second thoughts about Florida? I also have to wonder if we are going to get another Larry Drew, practice by himself player or somebody more like Sean May.