I am not sure I am buying this fully but college football guru Phil Steele does not see UNC’s potential offensive issues as an obstacle to winning the title….the national title….um…okay.
But college football expert Phil Steele, who has built an empire with his well known preview magazines, doesn’t think the QB position (about 2:20 in) is going to keep Carolina from being a contender.
“With a defense like North Carolina has on the field, you can almost play the game where you don’t turn the ball over and don’t make mistakes, let the defense win the games,” Steele told the Insiders on 620 The Buzz.
And by contender, he doesn’t just mean in the ACC. He means contend to win it all. He’s boldly predicting the Heels to beat LSU in the Chick-Fil-A Kick Off in Atlanta.
“In fact there’s only two games this year I have them an underdog, at Miami and at Florida State. I’m looking at a 10-2 season for UNC and they make my list of surprise teams. They’re a dark horse national title contender if they can win those two tough road games.”
Steele also added that even though the defense is going to be the obvious dominant unit, he still sees the offense as much improved.
“Whether Yates holds on or whether Bryn Renner comes in and takes his job, I think you’ll see improved quarterback play.”
Okay, so Steele is not just blindly saying UNC can get by with a QB who throws the ball over his receivers’ heads and gives up 99 yard pick sixes. He does say he thinks the offense will be improved over last season which should be enough since the defense will have like 14 NFL first round picks or something. Patrick Stevens at D1scourse points out(via a nice chart) that T.J. Yates is not that far outside what other ACC title winning starting QBs have done this decade.
It’s funny. Yates’ completion percentage from a season ago would rank fourth on that list. His yardage trumps half of those guys. His touchdown total was more than the last four title winning QBs. And his interception total … well, that’s better left untouched.
(It’s also crucial to mention Taylor had 738 yards and seven touchdowns rushing in ’08, while Nesbitt had 1,037 yards and 18 TDs on the ground last year).
The overall point here is Yates isn’t a massive outlier among guys who have hauled home a conference title of late, which might surprise Carolina fans.
Sure, he probably won’t be an NFL star (who on that list above was) and he still needs to get better — cutting down on those 15 interceptions would be a nice start. But Carolina’s offensive problems can’t all be pinned on him, and the Tar Heels need to improve everywhere as a unit and not just under center. If that happens, Butch Davis‘ team might not just be a trendy pick. It could be an accurate one.
A good, healthy offensive line will help. A full season of top line production from the Shaun Draughn-Ryan Houston combo will also help. Greg Little is being touted as a possible All-ACC performer and if Erik Highsmith or Jhey Boyd can do the job on the other side of the field along side Zach Pianalto at tight end, suddenly you realize UNC has potential weapons. Are there still glaring questions about how these weapons will pan out? Sure, but it is not like UNC does not have the ingredients. It might be more about how the ingredients are prepared than anything else. And yes I am looking at you John Shoop.
Steele goes on to layout UNC’s path to at least ten wins with the possibility the Heels could(and let me emphasize that we are talking about could here) end up 12-0. Steele pegs to two Florida road games as the Heels’ biggest pitfalls assuming they handle LSU in the opener and take care of business at home vs the likes of Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. If the Heels go 6-2 in the ACC they will be right in the thick of the ACC title game hunt. Under that scenario Miami would have to lose three times and both Tech lose at least twice.
At this point it is all speculation but it is nice to be able to realistically imagine scenarios that put UNC in the top ten and not sound like we are all nuts.
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One thing I have learned over my years of watching UNC football, is they will let you down….. Yates is an average qb, and in college football every game is crucial, and he is due to cost us at least 1 game.
UNC always loses to VA in VA, GT is always tough, Russell wilson still has our number, and cant forget about the 12 oclock stinker that is always seems to happen.
UNC football isnt UNC basketball, expect a let down and hope for the best
I am aware that we are a “basketball school” and that we all want badly to wash the taste of last season out of our collective mouth with Harrison Barnes-flavored Scope, but I think that TarNation should be extremely pumped about the upcoming football season!
USA Today’s recently published College Football preview says that we may have the most talented defense since USC in 2004 (i.e. it should be illegal to have a D this good). What we have is virtually an NFL defense hitting the gridiron a day early each week. While I know we are all justifiably cautious of our Yikes-led offense, but there are 4 reasons I believe that side of the football will be much improved:
1) The experience earned by young WRs Erik Highsmith & Jhay Boyd and the confidence gained by Greg Little (minus the penalty-drawing Muffler Bowl punt into the stands)
2) A healthy (knock on wood) offensive line, infused with a couple of colossal young recruits [Side note: A few years ago, our roster consisted of one O-lineman over 300lbs. This season there are only 3 out of the 11 on the depth chart under 300lbs, and the guards weigh in at 320 & 325—thanks, Butch!]
3) Not only is the back-up QB a viable replacement should Yikes go down, he may actually be a better option entirely—a bigger preseason question than “Will TJ start?” and “How well will TJ play?” could be “How short will Butch’s leash on TJ be?” because unless he comes out playing like Chris Keldorf against LSU, a QB controversy in Chapel Hill is inevitable
Granted, I’m not expecting the offense to be phenomenal, but I am saying they should be able to put up 17 points per game, which may be all we need to have an epic season. Because with this defense, we might not get scored on all season! And this is ABSOLUTELY the year we finally win in Charlottesville again!
“QB Issue Not Necessarily Hurting UNC’s Chances”
And the subheading (or whatever you call it) should be:
“QB Issue Not Necessarily Helping UNC’s Chances Either”
UNC did not let us down in 1997-98. They had only one loss that year. That was to Florida State. I think UNC will be amazing on defense, and offense well….I hate John Shoop.
I don’t care what the analysis says. You will lose a lot of games if you don’t have a QB who can keep the offense on the field. Last year Yates couldn’t (too many three and outs, too many turnovers). If he still can’t do that this year we will still lose a lot of games regardless of how good the defense is.
UNC fans that insult John Shoop sound ignorant to me. He is a good O coordinator that works with mediocre QB’s. He is a quality guy. I met him at a coaches clinic and he gave up 2 hours to talk with me and a few other high school assistant coaches to talk about their offensive passing attack. If you understood his system you wouldn’t criticize it. Its not his fault Yates has the accuracy level of a freshman in high school. The system is meant to help a QB as much as possible but if a QB isn’t accurate those 5-12 yd pass plays don’t mean much.
“One thing I have learned over my years of watching UNC football, is they will let you down…..”
my thoughts exactly. national contender? shouldn’t we be an acc contender first?
Shoop is an excellent OC. He put in alot of creative plays last year trying his best to get some spark out of a seriously inadequate QB. I liked yates early on, but it is finally time to say goodbye to the John Bunting era.Shoop mad a lot of chicken salad last year.I was impressed.
The defense is extremely good, a pleasure to watch.
The offense is potentially good. As we found out last year, a lot can go wrong, particularly on the injury front, and it can take a toll. Yates has simply got to be more consistent and less error-prone.
Talk of any sort of championship is premature. It’s the sort of thing that sprouts in July and wilts in October.
Optimism is reasonable, but let’s see it on the field.
UNC33,
What are you talking about? Do you even watch the NFL? His offense is relies on the short passes(bubble screens) and dives. I watched him do a terrible job in Chicago for four years. Go ahead ding me, I know what I saw.
As for not being able through short passes, there a number of NFL quarterbacks who have problems making the short throws.
Interesting comments from all. I liked the Harrison Barnes flavored mouth wash comment…….
* A much better Oline with the return of Gaskins and the fact many of the guys got a lot of experience last year has to help the QB.
* Kudos to Ryan Houston for his play last year, but I do believe with Draughn the Heels don’t lose to State or Pitt. (Of course without the State loss the Heels don’t go to the Muffler Bowl)
* Don’t forget Dwight Jones as a weapon. He has all the tools and if Yates/Renner are getting some time (see Oline/RB comments) the Heels have 4 threats on any given pass play. (Little, Pianalto, Boyd/Highsmith, Jones)
* If this offense can give the defense some rest between series I give the Heels a chance in every game. That’s all I believe anybody should be saying at this point.
Faustus, yes I watch the NFL. I’ve played and coached football for a number of years and I know the typical routine of the madden playing fan when they don’t see enough points on the scoreboard. If you have a problem with the system critique the system. Saying you hate John Shoop without ever meeting him or fully studying his offensive system does nothing. Like I said before, mediocre QBs hinder this system because it requires precision and quick reads. Yates is where you should place blame because he does not execute. Look at the list of QBs for the Bears during those four years and look at the similarities in QB quality. This system helps the running game tremendously if the QB is accurate. If the QB can make a quick read he will have a short, manageable pass. Trouble happens in this system if the QB can’t make the read and tries to force passes into gaps that aren’t there. The QB has 3 quick reads to make. Shoop puts his guys in a position to succeed. He can’t guide their arm on he field. I guarantee Bryn Renner will efficiently execute this system when given the opportunity. So Faustus, yes I know something about football and yes I watch the NFL. I’m not questioning what you saw but I do think your hate of John Shoop is misplaced.
^^UNC could have beaten Pitt with or without Draughn if they had been willing to make an adjustment to their defense, instead of leaving Pitt’s tight end uncovered to catch about 6 passes in the second half of that game. In addition to shaky QB play, inflexibility on the part of the coaches has also cost UNC many games the last couple years. I hope both those of things will change this year.
Also, UNC got a commitment from a four star rated QB today (Marquise Williams):
“Williams is rated a four-star prospect and the nation’s No. 15 quarterback by Scout.com. “
” If this offense can give the defense some rest between series I give the Heels a chance in every game.”
I agree with Heels Perspective. No matter how good the defense is, the offense still needs to be at least somewhat effective to keep the Heel’s D from playing the majority of the game.
Its not realistic to expect a tired defense to make a game winning stop each and every week.
850, you hit the nail on the head. i can’t remember how many times the last few years our coaches let teams run the same plays over and over seemingly without making adjustments. very frustrating to watch.
this is a good sign
“Each summer, Peyton Manning hosts a four-day passing academy at Nicholls State University intended to teach high school and college quarterbacks the fundamentals of the position. Manning co-hosts the camp with his father, Archie, and brothers Eli and Cooper. The passing academy began on Thursday and lasts through this afternoon.
The list of this year’s coach/participants is impressive. It includes Stanford’s Andrew Luck, Florida State’s Christian Ponder, Tennessee’s Matt Simms, Houston’s Case Keenum, Boise State’s Kellen Moore, Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson, LSU’s Jordan Jefferson, Alabama’s Greg McElroy, and T.J. Yates of North Carolina.”
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/07/11/manning-qb-camp-features-bevy-of-future-nflers/
UNC33,
Did you read my critique? If you want to blindly defend Shoop go ahead. My argument is that he is ultra conservative. I understand the Bears and the Raiders are not world beaters offensively. The Raiders offense yardage went from 21st to 32nd in his second season. In 2004, the year before he came on board the Raiders offense was ranked 17th. In 2005, the Raiders had the same quarterback and added Randy Moss. Yet, even with Moss they dropped four places in total offensive yardage. Kerry Collins completion percentage went down 3%. The only positive is that the his interceptions went down.
Faustus, I don’t blindly defend Shoop but I understand his offensive scheme more than just boiling it down to Bubble Screens and dives and fill in the blank generic plays. Sorry he doesn’t light the scoreboard up, Sorry that doesn’t live up to your standards for a successful O-coordinator. When all is said and done I’d rather have him calling the plays over you.
UNC33,
I never said I was good offensive coordinator, but you can not deny how the Oakland Raiders did offensively with him calling the plays. You can not tell me that UNCs offense had 108th rated talent last season. If that is the case, there were issues in recruiting. In 2008, with a better receiving corps the offense was ranked 92nd. With four receivers, In 2007, the offense was ranked 104th in yards per game. From 2007 through 2009, there hasn’t been any significant improvement. 2009 was year three. Maybe, who knows maybe it is part of his offensive scheme to appear awful.