Where: Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
When: Saturday, February 11th, 1:00 PM
TV: ACC Network
Records: UNC 20-4, 7-2 ACC; Virginia 19-4, 6-3 ACC
This is a must win. They are all must wins at this point because there is only so much more slipping up Duke and FSU are going to do so UNC can only take care of its own business going the rest of the way.
The reaction from UNC in this game will be intriguing to watch for a couple of reasons. One, Roy Williams is correct, they should be angry about losing the Duke game because it was like having something stolen from you. UNC’s play was sufficient to win the game save a series of bizarre events and plays made by Duke in the final two minutes. We are talking spousal infidelity level frustration here(thanks Scott Wood!) and UNC’s response to that should be to beat Virginia soundly. The problem is the Cavaliers’ abomination to the sport of basketball slow tempo offense make it difficult to blow them out. There will be fewer possessions and since UVa is such a solid defensive team there will be fewer looks in transition for the UNC.
Since that will be the case, UNC will need to be more efficient deeper in the shot clock than they probably feel comfortable doing while chasing UVa on the offensive end up 25-30 seconds. Yes, this is a rehash of the Wisconsin game but without all the size the Badgers had. Since it will be more of a halfcourt game the solution is simply: feed the Big Three, especially Tyler Zeller as early and often as possible. If there is one upside is to the tempo it is making UNC’s clear depth issue less of one but no one is crazy about UNC starters all playing over 30 minutes with the possibility of some of them going over 35.
Virginia’s Mike Scott will be a tough matchup for John Henson. Scott, like Duke’s Ryan Kelly, plays all over the court forcing Henson to play defense away from the basket. Virginia also has three point shooters and the length of time UNC will be forced to play defense means open looks are inevitable. Sammy Zeglinski comes in only hitting 2-14 from three in his past three games which probably means he will be locked in vs UNC. Hopefully playing Wisconsin will have the Heels prepares to face Virginia but not having Dexter Strickland will again be a talking point before this game is out.
UNC 72 UVa 59
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UVA’s thin front court vs our suddenly thin back court. Hopefully we can pound it inside and keep our guards out of foul trouble.
If I’m to be honest, I expect a slow start and they click somewhere late in the first half. I just think they will take time to get their sea legs, try a bit too hard to push the tempo and be a bit sloppy on offense, and maybe over committing on D.
I think they’ll pull it out. I think Z will steady the ship once he settles down himself.
I wonder if Barnes should be playing, despite the tough game and injuries to his teammates. I’d like his ankle to heal once and for all.
I’m looking at the Wisconsin game as well as a basis of comparison. That game ended up being right at Wisconsin’s (and Virginias) pace due to their shot clock usage and only having 4 TO’s. Virginia takes care of the ball in a similar way and does not hurry their shots. The thing the Heels did well against Wisconsin was in half-court D and defensive rebounding. (As well as plus 13 on the boards)
Those same things hold for today, as well as offensive rebounding, which may be the most important. Virginia is so good at defensive rebounding, and denying second-chance points, so getting some putbacks and second looks, and, as Brian mentioned, running the offense efficiently, will be key.
Free Justin!
GO HEELS!
We’ll let Virginia control the tempo and hang around because that’s just what we do. I expect an unimpressive victory. UNC 67 UVA 58
^I don’t know that it’s just a matter of of ‘letting’ them do it. It’s not easy to speed up things against teams like that. They’ve controlled pace in every game they’ve played this year, and have only gotten to 70 possessions once.
its close to impossible to make someone go faster. see I-40 drivers, the lady in line ahead of you, and pre-teen children.
i think one of the guys over at tobaccoroadblues wrote something a few weeks ago, that the shot clock needs to be reduced to 24.
that scoring, despite a 3-pt line and a 35-second clock, is essentially unchanged from 30 years ago.
Illinois 42, MSU 41 says hello.
When was the last time we had two losses at home in a row?
I expect a loss…..mainly not because of the Dook game, but because UVa does such an excellent job guarding the paint on defense. They make that their priority, and considering UNC’s perimeter offense is non existent, Henson and Zeller are going to have a hard time scoring.
It will be close and low scoring, but UVa’s pace wins out…..62-57.
^i would bring up that UVA has basically no one over 6’8″ now, but that hasnt seemed to matter in previous games we’ve had against much shorter teams.
go ahead and bring the ball down to your waist or try to dribble.
“Scott, like Duke’s Ryan Kelly, plays all over the court forcing Henson to play defense away from the basket”
Maybe Henson can force Scott into airballs like he did against Kelly, except the airballs won’t result in points for UVA.
Cue the bench shot of LMAC, DEX and PJ sitting on the bench together and the announcer mentioning something about, how nice it would be to have those guys available…….geez
I think what we have here is a controlled lab experiment that will settle once and for all the mental toughness question. The psychological impact of the loss Wednesday must be crushing (see comments on this board as a sample, and the vast majority of us didn’t have anything invested other than time and/or affiliation). A win of any sort here will help eradicate the early signs of insanity that Wednesday night brought upon the team (but not the fan base; I fear we’ve already contracted a mild red rage in the form of fratracide that will not be helped by an ugly game at the University of Wisconsin @ Charlottesville). Each game from here on out, I fear, will be a slugfest with our reduced bench.
If Duke can shoot over 70% from 2-pt. range against Va. I don’t know why the Heels inside game should have such a challenge.
I realize that its hard to make a team that wants to play slow play fast. But its not impossible. If they come out mad and determined (which I realize is like saying if the Sun rises in the West…) and force a bunch of turnovers and dominate the boards they could get a lot of transition opportunities.
Also if Barnes plays strong for 30 or 35 minutes instead of 20 or 25 minutes that could really help UNC get a big lead… but I realize that’s like saying if the Sun sets in the East…
we’re 191st in opponent turnovers. wouldnt count on that.
GROUNDHOG DAY
Maybe it’s bad luck to predict something like this
but last night I had a bad dream
In it the Heels were hanging-on by two
And BAM!…It’s Zeglinski…FOR THREE!!
Zeglinski went 0-fer vs dook, not even a FT.
*insert obvious line here*
“we’re 191st in opponent turnovers. wouldnt count on that.”
Another way of looking at this is to note that UNC’s opponent’s TO% is #82 (#5 in conf.) Still, Virginia takes pretty good care of the ball so I wouldn’t count too much on TO’s producing transitions. Now DRB’s is a different story.
191…82…whichever.
hard to believe when we do all that awesome helping.
http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/02/11/1846017/heels-gear-up-for-uva.html
sounds like i got 30 more minutes of sleep than Marshall did.
^maybe he should have called a 3am team meeting to see if anyone else was having insomnia issues as well? then again, I’m sure a lament to an N & O writer serves the same purpose. :/
Today’s game will be ugly because that’s just the way UVA plays. The only way to really speed them up is to press for much of the game which is even less likely to happen than usual with the shortened bench. In the end our size will be too much for them. I expect John’s length will frustrate Scott and we will dominate the boards. I don’t think we should be expecting a blowout, nor should that be the measure of success. This team plays not to get blown out.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7559170/bpi-feb-11-college-basketball-power-index-rankings
I think we’re both minimizing and mischaracterizing the aftermath of the Dook loss. I don’t agree that the players should be “angry” because it was like having something stolen from them. In a case of theft, you can get mad at the thief, and take it out on the next would-be thief.
The Dook game was more like having something precious to you destroyed by a bolt of lightning. It had a freakish, not a criminal, character.
Who do you get mad at when you lose something because it gets hit by lightning? Right. There IS no one to get mad at. Q: So what happens to the inevitable negative emotions? A: They become depression, not anger.
Anger, properly harnessed, can help you win. That is not true of depression. It doesn’t help you do anything.
When you add to that the fact that playing this game will be annoying, I just don’t like the emotional mix at all. I am thus apprehensive for reasons related to those explained by Andy in Omaha.
P.S. Obviously I hope I’m wrong and that they blow Virginia’s doors off.
^^^^I don’t care what Kendal Marshall says after a loss or what Zeller says after a loss or what any of these guys say after a loss. They’re great at saying the right things after losses, but now its time to just shut up and stop losing.
if you’re directing that at me RAJ, I don’t care what they say to the press either. OTOH, I care greatly what they do, or don’t say to each other. someone, anyone, needs to take the reigns and hold them accountable…my preference would be Marshall.
They can be angry at themselves for the loss. It was preventable if freakish. They’ve lost in almost all ways imaginable in a game: punched in the mouth early, come from behind when they let off the gas, shock at the end miracle, chance to win and failed. It can be a net positive if they execute per those mistakes. Only matters if they don’t allow it again. Only new thing that hasn’t happened is they haven’t been ground down. With all the injuries and Barnes still not 100% and playing 20 minutes a game, today could be that day if they aren’t really determined.
Yes 850, agreed. So much talk about losses and needed improvements this season…just win. Period.
In listening to Coach Bennett on the pre-game show, I’m struck by how important Coach W. using his timeouts at the right times today could be. We’re going to have tired legs, and I think an aspect of some of the silly fouls we’ve seen in recent games (ones that can clearly be attributed to us and not the refs) may be the result of fatigue in the legs, i.e. not being able to get to the appropriate defensive position and responding to offensive cuts. Hopefully Coach will sense the fatigue when it hits and give his guys (all of them) a blow to avoid key players having to sit for 4 and 5 minute stretches in the second half.