…and then let us never speak of it again.
With 24 hours to digest what actually transpired in the entire game, as well as the last 2 1/2 minutes that will go down forever in UNC-Duke lore, it is an interesting exercise to evaluate the final portion of the game possession-by-possession to really see the perfect storm of bizarre-ness that allowed Duke to overcome a 10-point deficit and win the game.
So, like breaking down the Zapruder film, let’s review what happens after Harrison Barnes’ shot at the 2:38 mark puts Carolina up 10 points:
2:19: Ryan Kelly attempts a three and shoots what appears to be an airball, but the officials rule that John Henson tipped the ball and Duke gets the ball out of bounds. You can watch the video below (it’s the second play in the sequence) and judge for yourself. Regardless, Duke gets the ball back under their own basket.
2:09: Tyler Thornton – who up to that point was 0-5 from long-range – drills a three to cut UNC’s lead to seven.
1:52: After running 17 seconds off the clock, Kendall Marshall throws the ball away and Mason Plumlee comes up with the ball.
1:48: After taking four steps, Seth Curry nails a three in transition.
This is an absolutely huge play and one I think has not received nearly enough discussion in discussing the Duke comeback. If Curry is called for the blatant travel, UNC gets the ball back up 7 - three possessions – and the ability to run the clock for another 20+ seconds, taking the game well inside of 1:30. Instead, Duke is now down only four points.
1:23: Harrison Barnes is called for an offensive foul. While this is a turnover, UNC still ran 25 seconds off the clock and the result is not much different than if Carolina had taken a shot and Duke got the rebound.
1:15: Kelly jacks up another 3 that misses badly, but Henson leaks out rather than boxing out and Kelly gets his own rebound.
1:10: Kelly scores and the lead is cut to two. Duke has made up 8 points in just under one minute.
0:44: UNC again works 26 seconds off the clock and gets the ball to Zeller, who is fouled by Mason Plumlee. Zeller, who is shooting nearly 80% for the season, only makes one of two shots. UNC is up three points.
0:14: After UNC plays good defense for nearly 30 seconds, Kelly jacks up a contested three that appears to be another airball. Plumlee clearly pushes Zeller to the other side of the rim and prevents him from getting at the shot cleanly. The ball bounces off Zeller’s hand and into the basket. Take a look at this video and make your own determination of the play:
At this point, Duke has attempted 3s on its last five possessions. Four of the shots were taken by Kelly and Thornton, who were a combined 2-13 from three for the game, and the other was by Curry, whose shot should never have counted. Kelly missed all three shots badly, and yet was bailed out by points all three times (the questionable call on Henson’s touching that led to the Thornton three, getting his own rebound, and the Zeller tip-in).
0:12: Duke does a great job of fouling quickly. Zeller heads to the line again and once more an 80% free throw shooter only makes one of two. UNC is now up two.
0:04: After apparently setting the final play to go to Andre Dawkins (wait, what?), Austin Rivers gets the ball off a Plumlee screen. Board monkeys and call-in show coaches have frequently criticized Roy Williams for not switching screens for 3-point shooters. Well, for once UNC switched and Zeller ended up guarding Rivers.
0:01: After reading Zeller guarding him for the drive, Rivers steps back and hits ONIONS (to use the Bill Raftery catchphrase).
Should Zeller have closed out with his hands up? Absolutely. But it is important to remember that UNC was up two points. Most guys in that situation are coached to defend the drive, and force the shooter into a lower-percentage shot. Besides, let’s give all due credit to Rivers for stepping up and drilling a huge bucket.
(And as a quick aside, let’s put one thing to rest that was making the rounds on Thursday: under no circumstances should UNC have fouled Duke in that situation. That is something you do when you are up THREE points and the idea is to (potentially) only allow two from the line. UNC was only up TWO points, so why send someone to the line for two higher-percentage, unguarded shots rather than make a guy drain it from 22+ feet away? It just so happens the guy made it.)
So to recap, here’s the perfect storm of bizarre that happened in the last 2 1/2 minutes:
- Duke may have gotten away with a phantom call on Henson that kept a possession alive;
- A guy who was 0-5 stroked a three-pointer;
- An egregious travel was not called, allowing for a Duke three;
- Ryan Kelly took three horrible outside shots and was bailed out with points every time;
- UNC’s best FT shooter went 2-4 from the line;
- Duke got away with a clear push that may have altered Zeller’s play on the ball and led to the bizarre tip-in;
- UNC had two TOs and no FG attempts in the last 150 seconds;
- And the hottest outside shooter of the night nailed a huge bucket.
As Chris said in an email to me, if any single one of those plays breaks UNC’s way, the outcome of the game is probably changed.
Plus, as Roy Williams said in his post-game comments, none of this happened in a vacuum. Duke made plays and took advantage of the situations presented to them. In no way is this analysis meant to diminish what Duke accomplished in completing the comeback. And no, there is no need to play the “refs were horrible” card, either. Yes, there were 3 huge calls in this time frame that went against UNC, and yet if UNC doesn’t turn the ball over or makes 1 more FT, that is irrelevant.
What it does it point out how narrow the margin was in the game, especially for those who are wanting to shovel dirt on Carolina’s season based on this one game or who are talking about UNC’s or Roy’s choke job. It also shows just how many things have to happen for a comeback like this to take place.
Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic made a great point on their ESPN Radio show this morning: this is the beauty of college basketball. If this were college football, we would be lamenting how UNC was eliminated from the national title chase. Instead, we have the opportunity to see these two teams play again in less than a month.
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This might sum-up the UNC/Duke game. Phil Taylor writing on Super Bowl in Sports Illustrated article “A Dynasty Downsized”: “The Patriots were knocked down a notch on the scale of greatness because they weren’t great when they had to be – in the small moments that define such things.” Substitute Tar Heels for Patriots. Substitute any team/any sport.
On the matter of Hairston’s ankle… I like Watts as a four year guy who has done whatever team needed [read last year]. College basketball is loaded with guys like him and a lot of them step-up to the challenge. Hubert Davis was pushing for Justin to become back-up PG before it became evident Roy wanted to go with White. I stil[man] like White at PG and Watts just[in] subbing for Reggie. Sorry about that!
mrn10sdave…
Come on, man. One defensive close-out out of 36 attempts equals good perimeter defense??
I don’t mean to sound harsh, but since Hiarston wasn’t shooting well anyways then Watts vs. Hairston = not much difference on offense.
On defense Watts might actually be an improvement.
That being said, while Hairston is out, when Bullock needs to rest I’d like to experiment with moving Barnes to SG and letting McAdoo play small forward for limited minutes.
Larry: feel free to unleash the sarcasm. I love the smell of sarcasm in the morning. And I agree with you on all counts: the Duke championship teams from the Hill/Laetner era did not have the jump shooting mono-mania of more recent editions. And Roy’s road runner offense has been quite successful for lo these many years, even without my invaluable strategic advice.
But, at a philosophical level, it still bothers me that Carolina never seems to shoot threes well. We have the raw materials; we have the technology; but something seems to go awry. This bugs me in much the same way that it bothers me when drivers in front of me in bumper to bumper traffic, allow pinheads — usually wearing sideways hats or driving Escalades with wheel spinners — to shove their way in line. Not worth having an aneurysm over, but … it should be rectified. Or how about when my kids occasionally eat the dry dog food out of the giant rubber bin in the basement. (Whoops. My wife is texting me in ALL CAPS that I was never supposed to mention that. Hey, some kids eat lead paint, or dirt. Ours enjoy sampling nutritionally balanced Pedigree. Annoying, a bit awkward during play dates, but they still exhibit good bone growth, and acceptable personal hygiene. So our system is working, too.)
Where was I? Oh yes, Tar Heel three point impotence: not a tremendously big deal, but irritating nonetheless. I’m sure that when Roy reads this thread, as he does every night before turning in, he will have an epiphany, realize the error of his ways, and begin aggressively recruiting World B. Curry, age 14, the youngest and most promising of the genetically gifted Curry bombadiers.
I’d favor a less-than-100% Hairston over Watts most any night with the thought that he will eventually make 1 or 2. In a much-less-than-100% state, then all parts of Hairston’s will suffer, and it’s a moot point anyway since he’s out. Hard to say if he’ll be ready for Miami, but I’d rather take my chances over two games, without him, than jeopardize him for the last few by rushing it.
Free Watts…
“But, at a philosophical level, it still bothers me that Carolina never seems to shoot threes well.”
Atl, I hear what you’re saying but I don’t think you’re giving the Heels enough credit for being good three-point shooting teams, at least in the Roy era..
True, Duke has done well in this area the past two seasons, and this season, but in the five years from ’05 through ’09, UNC actually edged out Duke in team 3-pt. average over that period (38%), and that included JJ Redick’s junior and senior years.
It’s been a struggle for the Heel lately, but I think they’ll be much better next season. We” see.
^thats what we said last season.
but i think its cyclical.
i DO think K has adjusted to the times, tho. when you can get 1 1/2 possessions worth of points on a shot, you often come out ahead. and quality 6’11″ guys arent abundant.
atl…
I work with a bunch of State fans, and I use “fans” very loosely, since the last brain-trust pow-wow resulted in these gems…”what’s the name of our new coach again?”…and “you know who I’m talking about…Leslie, our senior point guard.”
To give this crowd any credit for knowing anything factual, other than Carolina’s starting five, would be comical. What they ARE well aware of, thanks to your posts, is that in the last two days, I have spent WAY too much time on this blog. I’ve attempted twice to educate these stiffs as to what constitutes good humor by sharing your musings with them, but all I can get is a couple of nods and smirks and then they walk off shaking their heads. That visual, by itself, is almost as funny as your posts.
Don’t stop. Maybe I’ll get fired and be freed from hell.
” and quality 6’11″ guys arent abundant ”
That’s the part that drives me crazy. We don’t have any problems getting the pieces that are relatively scarce (great point guards and great post players) but we have so few good shooters or quick guards… even though those are much more abundant.
they shoot 20, make 8. they give up 4 mades a game.
just 4. so there’s a +12 right there.
i count 3 games all yr that they gave up more made 3s than they made. 5 to 7. 3 to 4. and the big one, 3 to 8, the OSU game.
we’ve given up more 3s than we made ourselves…16 times, often to the tune of -24 pts, or -27 pts, or perhaps -39 pts.
“^thats what we said last season.”
Yes, but this time we mean it…we really mean it.
Seriously, with Bullock and McDonald back, and a more experienced Hairston, I certainly don’t feel worse about 3-pt. shooting, and that’s even if Barnes leaves. The current 5 per game with a 35.4% avg. won’t be that hard to beat IMO.
Hey, I haven’t given up on the ’11-’12 team either. There are a few long ones left to be made…but I’m starting to agree that it will be gravy now, and not a complementary staple. (Actually, gravy is a staple where I grew up, and my grandmother used to get a lot of compliments on it.)
Larry/Atl…I think one of Carolina’s problems shooting the three is that they don’t run/set decent screens like most of your big 3-shooting teams do…whether that’s coaching or execution…I don’t know, but this current team lacks in this area.
^why DONT we do that? and this is a serious question. how does the setting of screens conflict with our offensive system?
It doesn’t…we’re a different team, with different offensive objectives. I’m just stating why I think the Heels don’t shoot 3′s like other big-outside shooting teams…Duke, Georgetown, Indiana, etc…
Can’t say good screens are not part of it, and since they take so few threes, in relation to their total shot attempts, you would like to maximize the chances of getting the ones you do take. Now those open looks on secondary breaks, etc., that PJ and Reggie have missed lately, even if there have only been a few…..man, you need to hit those.
I guess some people will try to describe this game as a classic, but to me, the play was ragged and particularly, down the stretch, lacked intensity, possibly on both team’s parts.
I am not sure that Duke intended to win, but hey, if the game is there for the taking, why not? I am not claiming UNC should have fouled at the end, but if you are the superior team and playing at home, why not force Duke to take a two? We seemed happy to just let them fling three’s when that was their only hope.
That being said, to me, this was a fairly easy home win, an eight to twelve point affair against an out-manned opponent. The fact that a series of bizarre occurrences took place, doesn’t really change that.
People have mentioned three point shooting, and have forgotten how good Felton and Lawson were from three point range their junior years. I just don’t think that we are getting the same kind of production from the point guard, and I don’t think we can really expect it from someone who is more of an Ed Cota type player.
Obviously, this team can go as deep as it went last year in the tourney, and anything can happen. Mediocre teams (for champs) have won the NCAA tourney the last two years. We are at four losses and counting and we have never won a title with more than four losses. I am not saying that as dogma, but I do think it is predictive once a team drops down into the six loss category. You have to win six games in a row and five of them against pretty good competition.
This team can’t shoot free throws, in general. I don’t really buy that notion that we are mediocre at free throws, but we make them in the clutch. I am willing to bet that we shoot them about the same in close games as in easy ones. I expected our freshmen to be even better than they have been, and I doubt they will improve much more this season.
We have obviously gotten better, but I still see some hangover from 2010. Zeller and Henson, are what they are. The keys are Marshall and Barnes. If those two can start playing like they did last February and March, then things might look a lot better.
“i DO think K has adjusted to the times”
I think any coach adjusts to the talent he recruits. Yes he knew they could jack up the threes when he recruited them but it’s a different game at a different level. You never know what you have until you put them on the floor. then you adjust some more.
Give me the run n’ gun offense that Roy employs any day before the live/die-by-the-3…how many teams have won championships being totally one-dimensional.
^^if you can make 8-9 3s a game, and defend the 3 pretty well, it hides a lot of flaws.
I think a lot for a lot of UNC basketball fans the game is still stuck in the 80s when big centers dominated the games. Any team that relies heavily on the scoring of the centers and PFs have a very finite ceiling. The game has changed. This team more than any other teams in the recent past is completely center oriented. It reminds me very much of the 2007 team that did not make it past the Elite 8. Basketball today is guard dominated. In most teams the guards score the bulk of the points, while the center plays a foil getting rebounds making put-backs. In the NBA the best big men have both an inside and outside game.
In any case the lack of perimeter shooting and perimeter defense really hurts the team. Duke demolished us from the 3. A number of them were from the deep, but most of the made ones were wide open. Moreover, kudos to K for not reining in his players from attempting 3s even when they weren’t falling. On the other hand the penchant for our coaching staff to rein in any and all attempts from the perimeter at the first missed attempt is just baffling.
And let’s not talk about perimeter defense. It’s bad when a team attempts 15 3s against you, but when a team attempts 36 and ends up making 15 it’s downright pathetic perimeter defense.
McHeel:
Runnin’ and gunnin’ and shooting threes are not mutually exclusive; in fact, they should be complimentary. (Probably the craziest, run and gun team of all time was the Loyola Marymount, Bo Kimble, Hank Gathers (RIP) flying circus, and they jacked threes like Fennis Dembo on PCP. Yes, they gave up 147 points per game, and never sniffed a title; my only point is that 3′s in transition can and should be a huge weapon.
Quick: name me a Carolina player, when he rises and sets to fire from deep, where you’re thinking to yourself: count it. For me, that list is, maybe, Barnes. The End.
When Hairston and Bullock shoot — at least lately — I think: please, God, make this go in, just this once.
Anyway, I’m done banging my high chair about three point shooting. Here’s another question I’ve been pondering:
do Carolina’s players, evaluated collectively, have elite athleticism? I know I frequently describe them as an athletic team, it just seems like they are because of how they get up and down the floor and because that Lawson/Felton/Cota to Ellington/Vinsanity/Stackhouse (and going way back, of course MJ) hereditary DNA has come to define the program. Objectively, though, I’d say that among the top title contenders (UK, SU, UNC, OSU, KU, Mizzou, Baylor, MSU, etc.) UNC might rank as the least explosive, in terms of fast twitch, above the rim, ESPN highlight of the night, Stu Scott Boo-yah! sheer physical talent.
I’m not saying that’s good, bad, or indifferent, just an interesting reality.
Larry, if you differ, get out the sarcasm bazooka and let me have it. Marcus would probably weigh in, but he was just fired — it’s always best to do it late on Friday, less chance of homicidal blow back — for violating the Internet Abuse guidelines at the battery crushing plant where he works, and was just escorted to the service elevators with all his worldy possessions in a card board box, including his rare JR Reid bobble head and moth eaten Sam Perkins snuggie.
“if you can make 8-9 3s a game, and defend the 3 pretty well, it hides a lot of flaws.”
That it does.
In Duke’s case the good news is they have those 3′s spread out, legitimately, over 5 players, and they have a precocious freshman guard.
The bad new is that there are more eggs in one basket this year than usual, with the highest % of points from outside they’ve had in 3 years, combined with the lowest assist rate and a weak D, overall. And they have a precocious freshman guard. (I get the sense that they will go as far as Austin Rivers can take them.)
A simple fix from my perspective (which apparently will never happen) is that you don’t help-down off the outside perimeter and you fight over top of perimeter screens. I guess it’s just too complicated for me to understand why we don’t employ it?
the poster over at IC had a followup to Bryan Kersey.
considering how close the winning percentages of the 2 teams are, its interesting, at least on the surface:
UNC’s winning percentage with Bryan Kersey: 54.8%(17-14)
Dook’s winning percentage with Bryan Kersey: 75.6% (34-11)
“Larry, if you differ, get out the sarcasm bazooka and let me have it.”
Not to worry, it’s not my nature.
I agree about wishing and hoping for PJ and Reggie lately where I felt very confident but a few weeks ago.
I also think, while still a reasonably athletic team, this one got much less so with Strickland going out. That kind of player is hard to replace.
You’re right…we lack the three’s or 3-point shooters…but I still don’t think we do enough with our half court offense. We’ll either (most often) drop it down to a big-guy and let him do all the work…or occasionally we’ll drive and then dish out for a three if the lane is not completely open. And let’s face it…recently the only person to drive is Marshall. But defenses are usually expecting a kick-out and most of the time will contest our shots from beyound the arc. I don’t understand why we don’t set-up more plays for screens. I think Hairston and Bullock would be much more successfull when there’s not a hand in their face.
Well for that to happen there needs to be set plays, high-ball screens and ball movement. But those are not part of Roy’s system unless you are coming out of a rare TO. Roy plays a fast moving secondary break relying heavily, this year more than usual, on points from the paint.
We could still have open 3s when the defense collapses, but neither Zeller, nor Barnes are good at passing out of a double team. One other thing I have noticed is that with new skills players are playing differently. Last year, if Barnes received a pass in the perimeter, his first instinct was to shoot. This year, his first instinct is to drive to the basket. Not to mention that the UNC’s coaching is not big on perimeter shooting, unless absolutely necessary.
Roy is great in most ways, but one of his weaknesses is adaption. He does what he do and he does it the best he possibly can based on how he knows to do it (did you get that?). He recruits to his style. And he plays his style regardless of the recruits he gets.
It would be nice if Roy changed some on occasion. If nothing else but to throw the opposition off. You know the examples…switch on screens, no help (or soft help) defense, live with slower pace sometimes to get a better shot, etc. And in recruiting, I would like to see more shooters and fewer big men who can run.
Most frustrating thing for me watching dook over the years is the constant warding their players use when driving to the basket. I am pretty sure that a push off/offensive foul could be called every time one of their players drive to the basket.
The fact is they consistently recruit slow non athletic big men who have to push off to get to the basket. Singler was a king at this…now Ryan and the Plumbro’s are. Arrington on the tradition.
But the most frustrating thing is that in 20 years of watching dook and UNC I almost never see it called.
“Not to mention that the UNC’s coaching is not big on perimeter shooting, unless absolutely necessary.”
Roy has said many times that he doesn’t mind guys shooting from the outside as long as they make them.
@gso_tarheel I am not a big fan of Roy because his ego is monumental and whether intentionally or unwittingly he says the most egotistical BS.
Case in point, a few weeks ago at a presser he was commenting about how he always likes to play fast, and how Coach Smith and Coach Guthridge asked if his new recruits can play at his preferred speed from the get go and whether or not he would be better off adapting to the talent of the recruits and building up from there. To this he had supposed replied “I told them I was not coaching for the season, I was coaching to build up a program.” That stunk of conceit.
Dean Smith might not have won two championships in a decade but he sure as hell coached a bunch of really good players and hall-of-famers, and he coached every season according to the talent that was available. Roy has coached a number of years in Kansas but other than Paul Pierce he does not have a single player who can be called a star.
“Roy has said many times that he doesn’t mind guys shooting from the outside as long as they make them.”
Which also means that he does mind if a player attempts shots and misses.
^Excellent deduction.
While I didn’t watch any of the second half, I did listen to it as I tried to go to sleep. Yes I did record it. But what I listened to made me very comfortable. Our crowd roared when we scored, I felt good. Our crowd roared when they didn’t score, but then I could hear that dang whistle. Every single time Dook didn’t score the officials bailed them out with their dag gum whistle. But as of about 3 minutes to go we were still up by 10 and I felt comfortable enough to rest assured that we were going to win. Boy was I wrong! While I haven’t had a chance to watch the second half yet from what I listened to on tv was a true Obama bail out by the officials for Duke!
I have not read any of the prior comments (largely because I do not wish to think about this subject), but I would like to add an observation and a question.
This was a horrible loss, as bad as it gets, and it’s not working for me to say, “Yes it was bad, but the season’s not over…” or something along those lines. It’s simply impossible to make this any better by trying to minimize it. This will be remembered by both sides (and the rest of the basketball world) for a very long time, and the memory will be miserable for us. There’s just no other honest way to put it. If I had a memory-wipe machine, I would use it.
It seems to me at this point that we either win the national championship, which expiates all sins, or this season will be remembered almost entirely for this and the FSU disasters. I’m wondering if others share that view.
^That was the worst I remember feeling after a loss, but I feel better, two days later, because I thought they played pretty well.
Three things would make me feel very good about the season, in progressive order:
1. Beating Duke in Cameron
2. Beating Duke in the ACCT
3. Getting to the Final Four
I don’t feel it takes a NC to put FSU and Duke@ Chapel Hill behind me, and I feel if they are playing well enough to get to the FF then they have a good shot at it all.
the single worse part of it for me remains that we will see that shot for the rest of our lives in front of every game we meet.
they already play the Capel shot to death, in a game that i remind ESPN… WE WON.
and we made a hero out of a punk. a punk who travels every time.
Rathskellar: no one — other than self-flagellating Tar Heel faithful — is going to remember the Seminole massacre, because, well, it’s FSU. Here’s what most people outside of Tallahassee know and “remember” about FSU hoops: 1) Gee, that Bobby Bowden seems like a nice man; 2) Charlie Ward should have stuck with football; 3) “Hey, did you hear some team called the ‘Noles beat Carolina and Duke?” “What the heck is a ‘Nole?” “I think it’s those furry rodents that dig up your garden. No? Oh, it’s short for Criminole?” “Why would a school want to advertise that? They should just change their name to something bland, academic-sounding, without negative connotations. How about The ‘U’”?
Now, the Rivers walk off is going to be harder to erase from the public consciousness, at least until Dickie V’s vocal cords give out and he’s rendered mute. But, administering a thorough beat-down of the Dukies on March 3 in Cameron — perhaps involving Rivers enduring a 1-14 shooting nightmare after being hit in the head and severely concussed by a Plumlee-bot missed free throw that caroms viciously off the basket support — is an important and absolutely necessary first step. Then, UNC’s ritual losing of the ACC tournament, must be followed by an impressive run to the FF. Along with Duke losing in the first round of the tourney, in shocking and ignominious fashion, to play-in game winner Austin Peay or the Greater Camden Area Institute for the Deaf, on a last second technical free throw after Coach K calls a time out he doesn’t have.