This was an absolutely gut-wrenching loss, but I am not sure that it is anything more than that. As Brian pointed out in his post-game wrap-up, UNC is now 0-5 at home in their first match-up against Duke of season (and 2-7 overall). Additionally, Al Featherston (the link is to a “Duke-site”, be forewarned) noted yesterday that the last 7 Duke and UNC teams to win the national title were 3-4 in the season’s first match-up, but 7-0 in the second, and that is really the key. As much as this hurts, a season is not defined by what a (UNC) team does in February, it is defined by what it does in March. In the past, Roy’s teams have improved continuously through February and into March (heck, even the 2010 team did, relatively so), which includes a 6-2 record against the Devils in the second match-up of the season. This team still has (most of) the pieces to be a legitimate threat to win it all, but it is up to them to make sure that games like this are a learning experience, and not a portent of things to come.
Four Factors
Last night was a perfect example of how seven minutes of bad play, can completely overwhelm 33 of good, and on the offensive end, it was really only the last two minutes that were bad. For the first 38 minutes of the game, UNC did almost everything they needed to on offense to win (the following stats include only the first 38 minutes). UNC shot (overall) well (eFG%: 50.0), rebounded well (OR%: 40.5, DR%: 71.1), and most importantly, took care of the ball (TO%: 10.1) and did work at the line (73.0%, including 13-15 in the first half). The last two minutes, were the complete opposite, as the Heels did not have a field goal attempt, did not grab a rebound, turned the ball over on 50% of their possessions, and were just 2-4 from the line. If any one of those things was different, UNC wins the game (literally, as little as 1 defensive and UNC wins).
Defensively, it is easy to sit back and say that UNC allowed Duke to make too many threes, because, in absolute truths, they did; but for most of the game, UNC actually did a really good job of contesting shots. From the 15-minute mark in the first half, to the 2-minute mark in the second, Duke was held to just 29.6 from three (8-27), which is terrific. However, during the other 7 minutes of the game, UNC let Duke hit 6 of their 9 attempts (3-5 to start the game, 3-4 to end it), and herein really lies the difficulty in playing a team the shoots a lot of threes: it requires a team to aggressively challenge shots for the entire game, not just 80-85% of it. While three-point defense will likely be the most talked about aspect of this game, the bigger concern in my opinion is the rate at which UNC is fouling. Last night, UNC gave up 26 FTAs to a Blue Devil team that took 58.0% of its shots from behind the arc (FTR: 41.9). Now, while it is clear that the officials were calling the game much tighter in the second-half, probably in response to the “talking” we saw towards the end of the first, this is still becoming somewhat of a worrisome trend for the Heels. Over the first 21 games, UNC had given up a FTR over 30.0 only twice (@UNCA, @FSU), but in each of the last three games, UNC has allowed its opponents to get to the line at a rate of more than 40.0%. Given UNC’s new lack of depth, this is something that is not sustainable.
Statistical Highlights
- From a defensive standpoint, this game was almost identical to the first Duke-UNC clash of the 2008 season, in which Duke went 13-29 from 3 and had 27 FTAs. In the rematch in Durham, UNC still gave up 10-29 threes, but was able to get the win by limiting Duke to just 31.9% from inside the arc and giving up only 9 FTAs. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself again in March.
- On top of the threes, this was also the first game all season in which the Heels had both a steal% and block% under 5.0.
- This was the first time since the Kentucky game last December (52 games) that UNC made less than 2 of its three-point attempts. On three separate occasions, UNC missed a second-half 3 while holding a 10-point lead. Those are the shots that you need to make (at least one of them) if you are going to knock an opponent out.
Beyond the Box: Player Impact Ratings
| Player | ORtg | AST% | STL% | BLK% | OR% | DR% | TO% | MIN% | P.I.R. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeller | 115.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 21.7 | 11.1 | 82.5 | 50.1 |
| Henson | 128.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 18.0 | 32.3 | 9.0 | 87.5 | 49.7 |
| Barnes | 121.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 11.1 | 87.5 | 37.2 |
| Marshall | 119.3 | 32.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 23.0 | 95.0 | 29.1 |
| McAdoo | 127.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 11.4 |
| Bullock | 115.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 33.3 | 85.0 | 10.8 |
| Hairston | 52.5 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 5.6 |
| Watts | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| White | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
In looking at the P.I.R., the thing that absolutely jumps out at me is the fact that UNC got very little from Reggie Bullock, and almost nothing from P.J. Hairston. Yes, Zeller, Barnes, and Marshall all had critical gaffes at the end of the game, but that should not overshadow the fact that they were also the ones (along with Henson) who allowed UNC to control the game through the first 90% of the second-half. For the most part, they delivered the type of performance this team needs to win at a high level.
When Dexter Strickland went down, a common line of thinking was that Reggie Bullock would be able to step into his starting position and UNC, at least in terms of the starting rotation, would not miss a beat. And too some extent, this has been true. The problem is, in order for this to be completely true, it is absolutely essential that P.J. Hairston steps up his game to replace the considerable spark Bullock provided off of the bench. If he does not, then the loss of Strickland goes from being “losing two players” (starting shooting guard and back-up PG), to really the loss of three (starting shooting guard, back-up PG, top-6th man/scorer), and that might be too much to over come.
Season P.I.R.
The cumulative impact ratings for each player can be found below. A player’s average P.I.R., both for the season and the last five games only considers games in which the player officially logged at least 1 minute of game time. The C.V. is a measure of variation; the smaller the percentage, the more consistent the player’s performance has been. While it is not technically correct to use in this instance, because P.I.R. is an interval scale (it can go into the negative), it still has some value for the top-tier players, who will likely have a positive P.I.R. in every game.
| Player | Total | Average | C.V. | Last 5 | ACC Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henson | 959.6 | 40.0 | 23.1% | 42.2 | 41.6 |
| Zeller | 885.2 | 36.9 | 30.9% | 44.6 | 43.3 |
| Barnes | 681.8 | 28.4 | 30.3% | 29.9 | 29.6 |
| Marshall | 671.8 | 28.0 | 26.7% | 35.3 | 30.5 |
| Bullock | 400.7 | 16.7 | 34.9% | 19.7 | 17.9 |
| McAdoo | 291.6 | 12.1 | 52.0% | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| Strickland | 284.5 | 15.0 | 55.8% | 13.5 | |
| Hairston | 275.5 | 11.5 | 55.0% | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| Hubert | 72.0 | 4.2 | 127.5% | 5.6 | 3.0 |
| Watts | 71.0 | 3.1 | 158.3% | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| White | 43.2 | 2.2 | 127.5% | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Simmons | 25.4 | 1.4 | 169.6% | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Crouch | 12.4 | 0.7 | 323.9% | -0.1 | 0.7 |
| Dupont | 7.0 | 0.4 | 168.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cooper | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1235.9% | -0.5 | -0.2 |
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Maybe that’s the problem. We look at the numbers, the percentages, all of the technical stuff and we ignore emotion. A championship team has to have both. It has to be a total team comittment. Right now I don’t see it! Some boys have to step up to the plate.
“The last two minutes, were the complete opposite, as the Heels did not have a field goal attempt, did not grab a rebound, turned the ball over on 50% of their possessions, and were just 2-4 from the line. …”
WOW!
Like to add UNC was 1 of 6 for 3pt shots… My question is WHY?
How do some of the most sought-after talented players go 1 for 6 for 3 pointers? Anybody?
is the PG from dook a one and done, I hope so
^Here is a good answer. It is because UNC didn’t have to shoot from outside. Zeller was able to work in the paint with relative ease for much of the game. There was no stopping Marshall from going to the basket.
^I think that’s pretty much sums it up. Duke is able to do a better job with perimeter D than post D because of their personnel, and they don’t seem to make much of an effort at denying the frontcourt….or at least it’s not the most effective effort. UNC just seemed to take what was given to them, which, for all practical purposes, should have been enough.
It would have been nice to see Bullock nail at least one. (I know he had one really good look) I mean, what have things come to when we say it would have been nice to get 2 or 3 three-pointers?
Go Heels!! This game was a great game gone wrong by one shot. If Rivers shot had not fallen the TarHeelNation would be talking about how tough we fought for the win and how spectacular Zeller and Barnes (in the second half) were. What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger and I’m very excited to see how this season ends up. Hopefully we’ll all be jumping with joy and thinking that loss Feb 8th doesn’t even matter come April 2nd.
There’s no shortage of what-ifs after a game like this, but I’m left wondering if maybe Stillman White should have seen a few more minutes. I was quite impressed with his hussle for the 2 minutes he was on the floor. He was the only Tar Heel I saw running over Duke’s ball screens, and that one dish to Zeller could’ve made Butta’s head spin. If he gets a few more minutes, maybe a few more of Duke’s shots get challenged, maybe Marshall stays out of foul trouble and has stronger legs to play more aggressively at the end.
Of course, how easy it is to armchair quarterback after the fact. I could just as easily be blaming Roy for keeping White in the game for too long if things went differently. But I am starting to think White might be about ready to step up and give this team some of the depth it is currently lacking off the bench.
I agree, I think white is playing pretty well. Maybe He’s not performing in practice and Roy has no faith, but for what little I’ve seen he looks great out there. Last night he was really good on the perimeter defense
Whose defensive assignment was Rivers?
^Early on it was Barnes, later on it was Bullock.
From the time these players began shooting, 5-6 years old, they began finding “their spot”. No doubt, had above average shooting stats in high school. They come to UNC and trade those talents for a scholarship. Suddenly, from an entire team of elite recruits, they take only six 3 pt shots and connect on just one. Keep in mind this was their rival team and they managed 1 of 6.
If they had made 2 or more those shots then that would have given UNC 3 to 18 more points.
Yes, I agree, we had the advantage in the middle; but the middle was not a give-me. Both Henson and Zeller had shots rejected and had to scrap for rebounds. If more outside shots had been taken and made, then Duke would had to come out to contest, thus freeing the middle even more.
One thing I wish is that Barnes did a better job of moving without the ball. I am sure his field goal percentage would improve significantly if he was able to make cuts to the basket or simply curl for jumpers.
In the games last two minutes College basketballs most successful coach, and northern Durham’s living legend, absolutely out coached his hall of fame counterpoint twelve miles away.
1. I do not buy the lack of heart meme. At all. People need to stop repeating it like it’s fact. It’s lazy and untrue.
2. Barnes was clearly a defensive liability with that ankle. I really hope he rests and heals I completely. Never mind whatever game comes next.
3. Zeller is the victim of freakish events ate in the game. Only thing he didn’t do exactly right was get his hands up on Rivers. Don’t think that Rivers couldn’t blow by him if Z overcommitted and drawn the foul. The “and one” was a possibility especially how the refs were calling the game.
4. Blaming Williams is just as tired as the heart meme. Please explain how Roy was out coached. He does not play. He does not execute. Free throws, missed threes, a slight lack of tempo, some costly mistakes and some weird s@&% cost UNC the game. Not coaching.
5. Welcome to the big time, THF
^lack of heart and killer instinct are two different things. It is like comparing the “Little Engine that Could” with Michael Jordan.
Blaming Roy comes with bad losses such this. Some of the decisions were questionable. Such as starting an injured Barnes on Rivers. I understand the decision. Bullock defends Duke’s best three point shooter. But let’s face it question always come out after loses such as these.
Bullock took what? 4 shots in the entire game. Made 2 or 3. While people are wondering why he doesn’t produce the offense that Strickland could not… well after watching that horrible 3 minute m0nightmare of a game. I noticed some key factors.
1. Henson took more outside shots than Bullock.
2. Seems like they were coached to go inside all game.
3. If Bullock took as many shots as Henson .. maybe it would be difference.
4. As for PJ… man I just can’t believe how bad his shots are.
5. I don’t think Rat out coached Roy… the players choked on their own… watch the llast5 minutes of the game… they let off the gas.
Um, with all due respect, gagging away a 10 point lead with two minutes to go, in a game you’ve dominated — or, perhaps more accurately, controlled — for the entire second half, should not be described as “a great game gone wrong by one shot.” This is akin to a Baylor fan waking up this morning, washing down his morning Prozac with Sunny D, and saying: “Well, that was a great game gone wrong by one, tiny, 32-4 momentum swing.”
(I do not take issue with the fact that the stunning, ‘what the heck just happened?’ ending to this game will guarantee its high placement in “Dickie V’s Ultimate Top Fantastic 497 Duke/Carolina Games I’ve Watched In Person While PTPeeing My Khakis With Delight, Baby!” By that measure, and that alone, it was great.)
Now, let us masochistically count some of the other “not great” portions of the game, unrelated to the Rivers’ dagger over Tyler Zeller’s cleverly un-outstretched arms:
The part where Rivers, Dawkins, Curry, Rivers, Rivers, Reddick, Kelly, Langdon, Rivers, Thornton, Curry, some walk on from the Duke intramural curling team, Rivers hit threes while being closely guarded by two body-painted Carolina students in the second row screaming “Noonan!” and making the “hoodoo” hex motion with their arms just as they released their shots. This defensive technique, which Roy preaches, while effective in some instances, failed during key junctures.
The part where Hairston positively visualized snapping out of his arctic shooting funk, and became en fuego from beyond the arc; but then, immediately upon entering the game, realized instead that he had been hypnotized at the scorer’s table by Jay Bilas into thinking he was Uwe Blab. And Uwe, for all his throw back Euro skilz, did not have a reliable jumper. Damn Jay Bilas!
The part where the officials called seven fouls on Carolina in an approximate four minute span of the second half, for not avoiding the Flop, hand checking Plumlee’s neck bolts, going under somebody’s torso for a rebound, and generally for causing Coach K to whine about the unfairness of his team — which was jacking wild threes like terrorists firing off dozens of stolen nuclear missiles in a Tom Clancy novel — not getting any calls in the paint.
The part where the ESPN cameras kept showing sideline shots of Duke’s insufferable assistant coaching tree. Mojo Wojo, Collins the Younger, some other intense, hyperventilating dude who looks and acts like the weenie wearing too much “flair” from Office Space. I do not want to gaze upon them. Are there any other D 1 teams where the assistant coaches get major camera time? Are you familiar with any of, say, Syracuse’s assistant coaches? (Hmmm … maybe a bad question. Let’s move on.)
The part where I had to watch 37 camera angles of Doc Rivers (a good guy, but now forever tainted by his blood ties to the Devils) jump around in paroxysms of ecstasy, shrieking and hugging his wife and a bunch of random Duke groupies, while all around them mortified Tar Heel fans stood in shock, trying to figure out how the Curse of Matt Dougherty had caused this unthinkable loss.
And finally, I’m a big Stillman White fan. He’s spunky and energetic and unafraid. But … watching him, I kept thinking of Michael J. Fox in Teen Wolf, and I’m not sure that’s a positive mental reference point. I’m just not sure that additional minutes for Stillman White is the cure for what ails the Heels.
yeah, PJ’s forgetting how to shoot is just weird–I would blame it on the increased toughness of ACC play (he’s below 20& from 3 in conference play)–but he shot well against some very tough teams earlier in the season (UNLV, Kentucky)….
Bravo,atl. Very entertaining writing along with good observations. This blog desperately needs your stuff.
Is there any way we can get Wayne Ellington or Ty Lawson just one more year of eligibility?
I love how Marshall seems to be more assertive about driving to the hoop now, but he needs to hit more outside shots. If Barnes and Bullock are the only three point threats we have (and unfortunately PJ has gone into Adam Dunn mode for basketball players) then we’re in for a long rest of the season. You cannot win in this game if you have only two people that can hit outside shots.
Calling Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston. Has anybody seen Reggie and PJ??
lmao at atl
Forget all this blather and bring it on Saturday.
Now that I have settled down after last night I can be more analytically minded instead of being just critical. I have already been lucky enough to have seen 2 championships in 5 years for the heels when previously we would win 1 per decade(skipped the 60′s and 70′s), but I tend to forget some trends of those seasons. In ’05 we lost to Santa Barbara early on (UNLV), the ’09 team lost their first 2 ACC games 1 on the road (FSU) I think many of us just need to calm down and take a step back to see how they bounce back against a very good Virginia team. So how will we respond, is the question. Will we fold? Or will we rise to the occasion? At this point we need to look forward.
A team with good shooters can go 1-6 from the arc or 2-4 from the line for the same reason that you can easily flip heads or tails three times in a row. Yes, other factors like defense can play a role, but unusually good or bad shooting is more fluky than anything else. BC’s defense didn’t cause FSU’s shooters to go stone cold any more than UNC’s defense caused them to get white hot. You make or miss a few in a row for no particular reason, and then confidence becomes a factor. Look at the box scores of upsets, and 3/4 of the time the cause is fluky 3-point shooting on one side or (FSU-UNC) both.
The above is not exactly a comment on the Duke game. Duke had good 3-point shooting in the first 5 minutes partly because our defense took a while to get geared up, but generally the shooting in that game was pretty normal on both sides. Six attempts from 3 is such a tiny sample that a little puff of air could lower your % from 33% to 17%.
^And these points underline the reasoning for why I wouldn’t necessarily expect Austin Rivers to go 6/10 from long-range the next time they play, even though it is within reason to think, between their 5 outside shooters, they may get their 38%-39% avg. (Frankly, I might not expect Henson to hit as many 16-ft. jumpers)
^^I agree about the small sample size with the threes. I guess an argument could be made that UNC should have taken more than just six, but Duke was doing such a poor job preventing then from getting to the rim, I don’t no how legitimate that argument is.
Like I said in my post, the only thing that really concerns me, both from Wednesday, and the previous two games, is the rate at which UNC is giving up FTs (more than double what they averaged the first 21 games). I don’t know if this is a fluke, or if it is the result of defenders being tired because of the shortened rotation.
I don’t know if the increased FT’s given up lately will end up being a fluke or not, but, aside from Wake, it does seem understandable at least.
Maryland does a very good job getting to the line, for whatever reason, and is in the Top 5 in % of points from the line. And I would suspect that in a hard-fought, close game like that the incidence of fouls might be a bit higher.
Same thing with Duke: closely-contested game, chippy, and certainly the players didn’t adjust to the way the game began being called in the 2nd half. It would be interesting to track all the close UNC-Duke games and see if the FT rate was much different, for either side, than normal.
My frustration with Roy is not fouling whichever Plumley was on the floor and give him 2 ffree throws while we have a three point lead with 12 seconds left. After all K put Zeller on the line in the last 12 seconds rather than letting the Heels get the last shot. We dominated the rebounding for the entire game. It doesn’t seem a stretch to believe we could retrieve a missed second free throw. Probably had the same chance of working as ending up with our center guarding their shooting guard out beyond the 3pt line.