North Carolina’s win against N.C. State last night had a very “2009-ish” feel to it. No, I am not trying to say that the teams are similar; I am just noting that this was the type of game that was commonplace during that season’s championship run. The Heels scored (seemingly) whenever they wanted. The defense, while not statistically stellar, got the big stops when they were needed. And it was all controlled by a maestro who was in the process of defining what the highest levels of point guard excellence should look like. It was a recipe for a Title then, and there is no reason why it can’t be a recipe for a Title now.
Four Factors
Sometimes, the statistical breakdown of a game really needs to go no further than the first column of the Four Factors. When a team has a 16-percentage point advantage in eFG% it is almost impossible for them to lose, barring some sort of obscene disadvantage in turnovers and/or offensive rebounds (the largest deficit UNC has overcome this year is 3.2 percentage points; the largest they have squandered is 3.4). And that is really what this game boiled down to: UNC shot the ball brilliantly (eFG% 59.6) en route to only their second game in their last 59 against ACC foes with an offensive efficiency over 130 (OE: 130.3; even the 2009 team only did it twice), while NCSU, despite its own impressive OE (112.1), was limited to an eFG% of just 43.6, primarily the result of 23.1% shooting from behind the arc. The only thing that kept this game from becoming an absolute blowout was the fact that the Wolfpack did a terrific job of handling the ball in spite of non-trivial pressure from the Heels (TO%: 6.1; lowest for any Tar Heel opponent) and were quite effective and relentless on the offensive boards (OR%: 38.3). Clearly, Mark Gottfried has had a significant (positive) impact in Raleigh, which is good for both Carolina and the ACC.
Statistical Highlights
- After missing their first three attempts, UNC closed the game hitting 18 of their last 21 free-throws. The team is now shooting 70.1% from the line in conference games, which is still not good, but the trend is encouraging.
- Along those same lines, Kendall Marshall is now shooting 84.8% from the line in ACC play. Maintaining this, in my opinion, is much more important than the team’s overall improvement.
- North Carolina has now played 4-straight games with less than 70 possessions (season average: 73.0), and yet, their OE over those 4 games is 116.5 (season average: 113.0). This is a great sign, as possession generally become much more of a premium come March.
- The last time UNC hit 10 threes in a game (Georgia Tech), the Heels followed that up by missing 42 of their next 52 attempts. No one expects them to shoot 50% over their next couple of games, but they need to avoid a dramatic fall as well.
Beyond the Box: Player Impact Ratings
| Player | ORtg | AST% | STL% | BLK% | OR% | DR% | TO% | MIN% | P.I.R. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | 244.9 | 63.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 60.4 |
| Henson | 105.1 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 28.3 | 16.6 | 82.5 | 36.5 |
| Bullock | 177.8 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 33.5 |
| Barnes | 132.1 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 7.6 | 90.0 | 33.0 |
| Zeller | 110.0 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 19.2 | 33.3 | 77.5 | 31.4 |
| Watts | 72.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 6.5 |
| McAdoo | 41.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.6 | 25.0 | 40.0 | 4.5 |
| Hairston | 59.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 2.1 |
| White | 0.0 | 68.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.1 |
Carolina’s starting five was outstanding yesterday, and under normal circumstances, there would be lots to be written about any of them. But who are we kidding? This game was about Kendall Marshall, who put together one of the best performances of any player in the country this season. I am not going to try to definitively place Marshall’s performance on the list of top Carolina games by a point guard, but if there were a tournament of sorts, I would certainly feel comfortable with its odds versus the fields.
Coming into yesterday’s game, the knock on Marshall was that he was “one dimensional.” Now, this may have been a reasonable assertion to make based solely on Marshall’s season-long statistical output, but what Marshall showed yesterday is that there is a difference between being (truly) one dimensional and being just so good at one thing that you choose to do that more than anything else. Carolina has a lot of “mufti-dimensional” players on its roster, and none of them have been able to crack the 60-point P.I.R. plateau; Marshall is now the first, and he did so easily and despite having only the 6th highest possession percentage (15.9) the team. Kendall basically did whatever he wanted, whenever he wanted, last night. His ORtg (244.9) was through the roof and his shooting percentages (eFG%: 112.5, TS%: 111.1) were obscene. And while his distribution (AST% 63.2) and protection of the ball (TO%: ZERO) were marvelous, perhaps the most impressive (and overlooked) part of his performance was the fact that Lorenzo Brown was held to an eFG% of 30.9 (2P%: 33.3, 3P%: 16.7). If (or when) Marshall wins the Cousy Award, this will be the game that kicks off all of his highlight packages.
Season P.I.R.
The cumulative impact ratings for each player can be found below. A player’s average P.I.R., both for the season and the last five games only considers games in which the player officially logged at least 1 minute of game time. The C.V. is a measure of variation; the smaller the percentage, the more consistent the player’s performance has been. While it is not technically correct to use in this instance, because P.I.R. is an interval scale (it can go into the negative), it still has some value for the top-tier players, who will likely have a positive P.I.R. in every game.
| Player | Total | Average | C.V. | Last 5 | ACC Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henson | 1123.7 | 40.1 | 21.6% | 42.8 | 41.5 |
| Zeller | 1043.0 | 37.2 | 30.9% | 41.6 | 42.1 |
| Barnes | 840.3 | 30.0 | 30.2% | 39.1 | 32.7 |
| Marshall | 808.7 | 28.9 | 32.6% | 33.2 | 31.7 |
| Bullock | 497.1 | 17.8 | 37.2% | 21.4 | 19.8 |
| McAdoo | 345.3 | 12.3 | 53.8% | 13.0 | 10.5 |
| Hairston | 293.2 | 10.9 | 60.1% | 5.8 | 9.4 |
| Strickland | 284.5 | 15.0 | 55.8% | n/a | 13.5 |
| Watts | 101.3 | 3.8 | 128.5% | 6.1 | 3.8 |
| Hubert | 84.3 | 4.7 | 119.0% | 12.3 | 4.6 |
| White | 49.0 | 2.0 | 126.3% | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Simmons | 26.6 | 1.4 | 166.2% | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Crouch | 10.9 | 0.6 | 388.9% | -1.5 | 0.4 |
| Dupont | 7.0 | 0.4 | 174.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cooper | -0.9 | 0.0 | -1269.8% | 0.0 | -0.2 |
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Pretty upset I missed this game reading all the analysis I always try to watch as many games as possible. I live in acc territory (south georgia) but my cable just got changed the other day and I couldn’t find the channel it was on. I know its the acc network but does anyone know what abbreviation the channel is actually listed under. Any input would be great. I tried going to a local bar to watch as well but they said they didn’t get it either (don’t think they looked very long). But it looks as though the offense is really starting to click if we can get consistent scoring from the back court we should be able to make a strong run deep into March.
In all the discussion of this game, there has been little clarification from UNC Basketball about how NCSU players were able to score so readily inside, especially in the first half.
There were problems when the bench players were in and NCSU does have good front line players, but this amount of inside scoring could have had serious effects if the rest of the offense had not performed brilliantly.
“Carolina has a lot of “mufti-dimensional” players on its roster, and none of them have been able to crack the 60-point P.I.R. plateau; Marshall is now the first…..”
This is pretty cool. It sounds almost like cracking the sonic barrier.
As of today, Kendall Marshall is in the top 3 , nationally, in these catagories:
- Assists #2
- Assists per game #2
- Assist percentage #3
- Assist to TO Ratio #1 (My favorite)
- Clutch Win Pct. (100% per Stat Sheet) #1
(I have no idea what Clutch Win Pct. is, but doing anything positive, in a clutch situation and at a 100% rate, has certainly got to be good.)
try this, pvog.
http://www.theacc.com/live/2012-acc-basketball-match-center-north-carolina-at-nc-state.html
^^Machado is still playing 3 min more per game.
Iona did recently knock us down to #2 in scoring. they are #3 in FG%. impressive. (49.8%, which isnt 50%, which is kinda like shooting 33% from 3. ha!)
i wonder if Machado’s nickname is…. Machete!
^I did notice, recently, how well Iona shoots the ball. Machado is no doubt a good PG (projected as a 2nd rounder), but his teammates do finish at good rate.
I live slightly outside of ACC country (raised in NC), and I don’t think an ACC network game is broadcast outside of that area. Doesn’t that basically mean local coverage only? (Sad that State – Carolina is no longer a national broadcast. Yet another way that the ACC is killing basketball.) In any event, it was not on cable for me but I have Charter and can watch it through ESPN3. That has been a life-saver and it usually works pretty well.
FYI, when games are listed as “ACC Network” go to the site (Brian includes the link in his pregame notes) and click on the “Network Affiliates” link. Here is the one from yesterday’s game:
http://www.theacc.com/live/2012-acc-basketball-match-center-north-carolina-at-nc-state.html#affiliate-list-anchor
It’s not quite national, but it is available to a larger audience that just the traditional ACC Footprint (and with the addition of Syracuse and Pitt, that footprint has grown).
“In all the discussion of this game, there has been little clarification from UNC Basketball about how NCSU players were able to score so readily inside, especially in the first half.”
credit where credit is due: Gottfried said his bigs were instructed to face our bigs (as opposed to back-to-the-basket). It was a very good strategy, and it mostly worked. CJ is very quick & slinky underneath, and Howell, (while making dumb fouls) has a lot of good post moves. Granted, our guys didn’t play very good interior defense, but NCSU had a lot to do with that.
^Agreed
I just watched the first half again and thought State’s players (Brown, Leslie, Williams, Howell) had more to do with their inside play than Carolina’s slack D. They just made some really good plays. If Leslie had skills to match his athleticism he would be terrific.
Also, I know the bench got in the doghouse a little last night, but I would like to give a shout out to Stillman White. His first-half stint consisted of blocking off Williams on one drive to the basket, almost blocking a Williams shot, and forcing him to miss, on another, then coming down, driving and faking a shot, then dropping off to Z for an assist.
^^^is there an echo in here?
^ i thought State made some fairly tough shots over/around our bigs.
^Ha! Yeah didn’t see that.
Here are the season ratings from http://home.roadrunner.com/~unc92sax/2012ratings.html:
Zeller .848 A
Henson .791 A
Barnes .754 A
Marshall .698 B
Bullock .577 B
Hairston .509 B
McAdoo .416 C
Based on win%, UNC-rating & opponent-rating from this site’s data, the 2012 UNC team ranks (so far!) in the lower part of the top 10 of UNC teams from the past 33 years (since 1981).
This year is right ahead of 1986 (Daugherty/Hale,SW16) & 2007 (Wright/Hansbrough,E8), and right behind 1987 (Wolf/KSmith,E8) and 1993 (Lynch/Montross,CH)
Overall I am impressed by this win because State really played well…great game plan and very good execution. We were simply the better team – as it should be approaching March.
so while we wait 3 more days for a game…
i heard Corchiani on with Gold&Ovies, and Gold had 4 Heels on his All ACC ballot (and Scott). they asked Corch about it, and he didnt see how that would happen.
so they asked him who he would take off the list.
he wasnt sure…but seemed pretty intent on FSU having someone and that someone being Snaer.
ok. i get that Snaer has hit 2 big shots. but he is 14th in ACC scoring and…..thats basically it.
is All-ACC about how valuable you are to your team, or is it just about how good you are?
Lets put Scott on there, because that seems like a lock.
Zeller is #2 in FG%, #2 in rebounding, #4 in scoring, #4 in blocks, and throw in #8 in FT%.
Henson is #8 in FG%, #1 in rebounding, #15 in scoring, #2 in blocks.
Zeller and Henson are the only 2 players averaging a double-double and theyre in competition for boards with each other, basically.
Marshall is going to set an ACC record for assists and finish 50 or so assists ahead of #2 on the year.
Barnes is #7 in FG%, #21 in rebounding, #2 in scoring and rising.
so who of those 4 are off the top 5? Barnes? Henson?
maybe Corch doesnt watch as much basketball as we thought. CJ Leslie is a better argument for 1st team than Snaer. top 10 in scoring, rebounding and FG%.
there arent a lot of choices for guys that appear in the upper 15 in more than 1 or 2 categories.
Unless it’s cut and dried, and I’m talking about composite stats and value to a team, not just scoring for example, in terms of really setting players apart for first team, I do think it’s a good idea to try and vary the selections between teams.
I wonder what the record is for the number of players from one team?
speaking of 1st teamers….
Psycho T with 22, leads Indiana.
he either enjoys the matchup with Charlotte, or was happy to be near us.
if we win out, does Roy get COY? seems like thats one UNC coaches dont often get.
back to the pro Heels…
what does anyone know about Marvin Williams and his game, his health, etc? every time i check a Hawks boxscore, he is starting, but doing little.
Wayne cant even get IN a game, lately.
No doubt Calvin played well last night as did Howell. I looked at the replay and it seemed the Heels were playing matador defense the last 5-6 minutes, trying not to stop the clock with fouls. Heels up 18 when this started.
So, I figure State was credited with 12 points in the “paint” so the discrepancy wasn’t THAT great.
Certainly, happy with the WIN in Raleigh. I am thrilled that Kendall displayed his offense. Bullock solid! Happy PJ got one to fall. His other 2 jumpers looked better, so I’m hoping he’ll become a threat again. 2 steps forward, one step back for McAdoo going forward I’m afraid.
LarryS,
In the earlier thread, I wasn’t saying that there are 100 teams who can use the strategy of matching us inside with physicality and having the ability to knock down outside shots. I think there are probably 8-10 teams who can do that (and State isn’t one of them). Unlike when we had the other Tyler inside back in 2009, I think those teams are favored against us this year. I don’t think we’ll lose to Dook again. If we do, it’s because we didn’t execute things completely within our control. Making a bunch of threes is not within our control. I hope we keep making them, but everybody is ecstatic after one performance which has been out of character for us so far this year. If you take away the three-point shooting, the only thing we really did great was Reggie’s defense.
Is there anybody here who if only told the stat that we were 10-19 for three and State was 3-13, would’ve thought that we only won by 12? I would’ve guessed we won by 25, and that’s what the result would’ve been if we had controlled everything we normally control with our superior talent.
Just experienced a moment of unadulterated happiness as I was silently mocking the posts on SFN. I was reading an article discussing foul discrepancies for the ACC and how UNC is part of a conspiracy theory with the refs. Wonderful stuff, really…especially reading the posts about how UNC grads would never understand statistics.
http://tinypic.com/r/2u9mu7r/5
But to my complete surprise and joy was a banner ad for UNC’s MBA school with the tagline reading “BRINGING UNC TO YOU”. I really would love to repost this over at SFN, but I will restrain myself this time. I know it’s completely unrelated to this article, but I had to share with my Tar Heel brethren.
Thanks for the qualification, mrn. I can’t disagree we’d likely be vulnerable with that type game at the Elite 8 level or so, certainly if it meant not doing the normal good job of rebounding, and interior scoring.
By recognizing this, though, it’s really nothing more than the cliche of saying “they won’t be able to get away with this against a really good team”, and no one would disagree with that. But that shouldn’t take away from being happy they had a good road win, against a team that actually played very well.
I didn’t hear Roy complaining about all the things they should have done better, or that they’re living on borrowed time unless they do a much better job on the boards, on defense, and scoring in the paint. He already knows that…the team knows that. This hasn’t been lost on them. But I can tell you he is as happy as everyone in seeing some of those outside shots finally start going down, and seeing his point guard have a career night, so that’s what he chooses to reinforce.
All you can do is play ‘em one game at a time, and next game they’ll work on doing the things they would like to do better, with the confidence that the momentum will be carried on and they’ll continue to do what they do best. No time for the glass being half empty in that locker room.
Great game. Really good to see that we were capable of winning a game from the perimeter on a night when our bigs didn’t quite have it. State played as well as I have seen them play. Z had an off night and Barnes needed to pull his weight on the boards as did McAdoo when he was in. Hard to believe they matched us in rebounds. Had we controlled the boards they way we normally do, it would have been a complete blowout. Can’t say enough about the game Kendall played…..as Dookie V would say “Awesome with a capital A, baby!”
It was interesting to see NCSU have an inside strategy that worked as well as it did. Barnes was often guarding the inside scorer and he was trailing off.
The front line for State played well, but UNC should have defended better. There were also lots of stupid fast breaks, often when some of the starters were out.
Facing up inside is a pretty unusual strategy. That is coming back for an encore.
Chris & Brian: At some point (like leading up to the dook game)it’d be cool to do a post of UNC vs. Duke alumni currently in NBA. You could just make a team for each school & see who wins by summing the players’ Hollinger PER rating.
…unless, of course, UNC comes out the loser — in which case the info should be suppressed
This time of year, all across college baseketball, it really gets down to just getting a W and moving on to the next game. And it’s not always easy even for teams at the top.
Here’s how things turned out last night for 3 of this week’s top 6 teams:
-MSU won by 5 at Minnesota, a team with a 5-10 Big 10 record.
-Syracuse won by 8 at home against South Florida
-Kansas won by 8 on the road to Texas A&M, who has a losing record, and who has only won 4 conference games.
And, FWIW, none of these teams covered the spread.
^Exactly, although I am curious to see if UNC can pass Wisconsin and Cuse in the KenPom standings. The Top – 4 teams probably have too big of a lead, but 5 and 6 are certainly within reach.
^^Interesting idea, though Duke would have the two top PER (Irving and Boozer) and more total players with a qualifying PER (14 – 10), so I’m not sure the results would be in UNC’s favor.
Surprisingly, UNC’s best PER is Brandan Wright.
You all should do a post tonight about the positives and negatives of this Duke FSU game. I really do not think I am going to be able to set myself up to cheer for Duke. Mind boggling.
^Just root for FSU (@UVa and @Miami is still no joke for them) and know that in the worst case scenario (Duke wins), UNC still still comes out a winner!
^etc. (response to BoyWilliams above)
I ran the numbers…Duke 17.8 PERavg vs. UNC 16.8 PERavg for starting 5
…Damn Guthridge.
uh..no, not gonna happen, Andrew.
http://blogs.newsobserver.com/uncnow/why-unc-needs-to-root-for-duke
interesting to think how the idiotic/wrong/awful end to the dook game might be instrumental in keeping Barnes from 1st team All ACC and more.
he’d be in more conversations and we’d likely be 12-1, and ranked #4ish.
^I am guessing Mr. Carter is paid based on page activity. This will definitely earn some ire from fellow UNC fans. I have said before the Noles have a number of chances of coming undone.
^HTTE – I heard the same diatribe you did yesterday when Adam Gold told Corch he would vote UNC players onto the All-ACC first team and Corch launched some lengthy argument about how can you do that if UNC doesn’t finish in first place in the ACC?
Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t UNC finish in first place in the ACC last year and have ZERO players on the All-ACC first team? Funny, ACC standings didn’t seem to matter then, but they should matter now…
Kendall Marshall = Jeremy Lin?
Similar assist numbers established.
New scoring prowess?
He clearly can do it.
^No. We don’t want that. Why? Because he’d have to start committing about 6 turnovers per game to become Jeremy Lin.
850inExile aka UNC RAJ-
OK. So he is better than Lin.
I just want him to stay another season.
Can’t make myself pull for Dook. FSU will get it from UVA or Miami. We made our own mess by playing so poorly in Tallahassee. We played well enough to win the Dook game, but had some bad breaks. Some we could have off set, some came with the Territory. I’m Pulling for FSU and a really tough game.