It is possible that calling last night’s game “ugly,” may be a bit of an overstatement. It really was more of an “odd” game, as the Heels did actually do a lot of things well. Unfortunately for them (and us), the one thing they did not do well at all was make shots, which, as we all know, is kind of important…
Four Factors
UNC was absolutely dominant defensively last night. Yes, Wake is not a good team, but even when you take that into consideration, Carolina’s defensive performance was outstanding. The Heels held Wake to an offensive efficiency of 79.1, which is 18.9 points below their (Wake’s) season average, and an eFG% of 31.5, which is 16 percentage points below their average. In short, the Heels took a bad offensive team and made them look awful, primarily by challenging nearly every shot the Deacons took. Not only did Wake shoot an abysmal 11.1% from behind the arc (2-18), when they did try to attack the rim, an inordinate number of their shots were met by the hand of a Tar Heel. UNC blocked a staggering 22.2 percent of Wake’s field goal attempts, which is not only a “Roy Era” record, it is also the first time that any of his teams have had a block% greater than 20.0 for a game. About the only thing UNC did not do well last night was limit their fouling, as they gave up a season’s high FTR of 48.1 (more than 2.5 times their season’s average). This, combined with the fact that WFU shot 73.1% from the line, is really the only reason that the game was as close as 15 points (even with UNC’s shooting woes).
On offense, the Tar Heels execution was pretty good; the results, on the other hand, were not. Carolina could not buy a bucket, and the stats certainly reflect this, as UNC’s FG% (31.1), eFG% (33.8) and TS% (40.1) were all season’s lows, and in the case of the first two, significantly so. Was it their legs? That case could certainly be made, as UNC was playing its 3rd game in 6 days, all while breaking in a newly shortened rotation, but at this point that is just speculation. Despite the horrendous shooting, UNC was still able to score on 57.1% of its possessions (slightly off the season average of 59.9) and put together an OE that was not completely awful (101.5), primarily because of two things. First, Carolina was very aggressive on the offensive boards, gathering 42.4% of its misses, a tone was set right from the start, as UNC’s first 6 points came after offensive rebounds. But more importantly, UNC was spectacular with the way they controlled the ball, turning it over on only 9.0% of its possessions, the lowest percentage any of Roy’s teams have had against a DI-opponent (the 2009 team had a TO% of 8.6 against Chaminade).
Statistical Highlights
- UNC has now turned the ball over 16 times in their last 141 possessions (11.3%). That is incredible.
- This was only the 3rd time all season that UNC’s opponent had a higher FTR than did the Heels (48.1 vs. 36.6). Despite this, UNC was still able to (barely) outscore WFU from the line by hitting 20 of their 26 shots (76.3%).
- UNC has now had a block% greater than 10.0 in 5-straight games, another “Roy Era” record.
Beyond the Box: Player Impact Ratings
| Player | ORtg | AST% | STL% | BLK% | OR% | DR% | TO% | MIN% | P.I.R. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeller | 138.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 22.3 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 77.5 | 57.4 |
| Henson | 96.7 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 20.3 | 14.2 | 80.0 | 48.1 |
| Marshall | 135.5 | 42.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 10.0 | 87.5 | 39.2 |
| Barnes | 101.7 | 18.4 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 17.2 | 8.3 | 67.5 | 33.3 |
| Bullock | 80.1 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 12.5 | 82.5 | 20.2 |
| McAdoo | 99.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 5.1 | 12.4 | 0.0 | 37.5 | 13.6 |
| Hairston | 32.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 4.0 |
| Crouch | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Watts | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| White | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 |
| Hubert | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Simmons | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Cooper | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Dupont | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
The starters really dominated this one, especially the 4 “stars,” who all produced P.I.R.s over 30.0, the first time that has happened all season. Certainly no surprise to see Henson and Marshall with such strong scores, as both had excellent games (outside of their shooting %), but I was surprised to see that Barnes was able to put up such a solid score, as his shooting was particularly off (even from the line, where he had 4 of UNC’s 6 misses), perhaps (if not probably) because of the ankle. Looking more deeply at his boxscore though, one can see that he actually had one of his more well-rounded performances with 7 rebounds, 2 assists, a block and a steal, to go along with completely shutting down Travis McKie (8 points; 2-11 from the field). And I would certainly be remiss in failing to mention Reggie Bullock, who once again proved to be a very capable defender, especially in the first half, when held C.J. Harris to just 4 points on 2-5 shooting. Bullock has really stepped-up and produced P.I.R.s over 20.0 in each of his first 3 starts; which, at least for now, has somewhat softened the blow UNC took when Strickland was lost for the year.
However, the star of stars last night was once again, Tyler Zeller. While Zeller did have a team-best ORtg of 138.8, what will get the most attention (deservedly so) was the way he relentlessly attacked both the offensive (OR%: 22.3) and defensive glass (DR%: 27.0), producing a career-high number of rebounds for the second-time in three games. Zeller now leads the team with three 50+ P.I.R. games, and somewhat amazingly, trails John Henson by only 5 rebounds (219 vs. 214) for the team lead. (Side note: It is starting to look very likely that the two will be the first pair of Carolina teammates grab 300 rebounds (each) in the same season.) So the real question is, if Tyler Hansbrough was the Ty Hanosaurus Rex, does that make Tyler Zeller, who is certainly establishing himself as a monster, GodZELLa?
Season P.I.R.
The cumulative impact ratings for each player can be found below. A player’s average P.I.R., both for the season and the last five games only considers games in which the player officially logged at least 1 minute of game time. The C.V. is a measure of variation; the smaller the percentage, the more consistent the player’s performance has been. While it is not technically correct to use in this instance, because P.I.R. is an interval scale (it can go into the negative), it still has some value for the top-tier players, who will likely have a positive P.I.R. in every game.
| Player | Total | Average | C.V. | Last 5 | ACC Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henson | 873.0 | 39.7 | 23.7% | 40.9 | 41.2 |
| Zeller | 801.5 | 36.4 | 31.7% | 45.5 | 43.7 |
| Barnes | 613.2 | 27.9 | 31.4% | 29.1 | 28.3 |
| Marshall | 605.5 | 27.5 | 27.4% | 30.6 | 29.8 |
| Bullock | 367.8 | 16.7 | 35.0% | 19.5 | 18.4 |
| Strickland | 284.5 | 15.0 | 55.8% | 3.4 | 13.5 |
| McAdoo | 269.6 | 12.3 | 53.8% | 7.8 | 8.7 |
| Hairston | 257.0 | 11.7 | 55.5% | 12.7 | 10.9 |
| Hubert | 72.0 | 4.2 | 127.5% | 5.6 | 3.0 |
| Watts | 69.8 | 3.3 | 152.0% | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| White | 43.2 | 2.4 | 116.9% | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Simmons | 25.4 | 1.4 | 169.6% | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Crouch | 12.4 | 0.7 | 323.9% | -0.1 | 0.7 |
| Dupont | 7.0 | 0.4 | 168.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cooper | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1235.9% | -0.3 | -0.2 |
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Making shots is REALLY important…Which, we all know they can make them. All I can say is that they had an off night, which every team has. They will be ready for Maryland this Saturday and next week back at home against the DOOKIES… GO HEELS!!!!
At the rate players seem to be accumulating PIR points it looks like Henson has it wrapped up. Maybe Zeller can get in the last word with continuation of his outstanding ACC play, and something close to how he performed in the NCAAT last year.
This certainly has to be solidifying Z’s pro status.
^Really depends on how many more games they play. Maxed out, UNC still has 18 games left, which would be more than enough for for Zeller to make up the 72 points to catch and pass Henson. But barring that which will not be mentioned, it will be one of those two at the top of the list when the season comes to an end (which is how it should be, IMO).
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/sports/ncaabasketball/dukes-cameron-crazies-lose-their-enthusiasm.html?hpw
http://dukechronicle.com/article/low-attendance-forces-duke-athletics-sell-student-seats
I don’t think that this is surprising at all, given that the conference is extremely top heavy and Duke’s rivalry with Wake has been truncated, just as UNC’s has.
After that GodZELLA joke, there is really nothing to say. That was awful, CM…
…
…
…
I like it.
^Yeah, I’ll be leaving the nicknames to BoyWilliams from now on… (And I assure you, there will be no attempts at poetry.)
^^I suspect that the prevalence of of large, HD TVs also has something to do with students staying away.
admittedly getting ahead of myself here, but is anyone else licking their chops at the prospect of a Davis/Henson re-match in the NCAAT? maybe we can get a reporter plant to entice AD into a juicy bulletin board quote? of course two more months of Davis-slurping by the media, and JH will be on him like a Shepherd on drumstick.
I’ve been anxious to get Kentucky again since the game in Lexington ended. It’s not just Davis/Henson, it’s also Barnes/MKG, and the opportunity to get Terrance Jones frustrated and pouting.
I think it also would be the ideal matchup for media and the NCAAT, though it would most certainly happen in the Final Four only. If both teams got far enough to make it happen they would obviously be playing well, and it should be a good one.
Sure, this is getting ahead of ourselves, and a lot will have to happen, but as long as the conversation is about preferred scenarios and wish lists, then they’re the ones I’d like to see the Heels play for the NC.
Terrance Jones pouts??
nice baseline curl by Branden Wright!
would this have been Wright’s rookie season if he stayed 4 years?
09 reunion in Minnesota tonight.
^This would have been Wright’s second season.
ah, thanks. he probably wouldve had more fun here, but…i guess he got some money.
Stoglin with 21 3pt attempts. by himself. good grief.
I had my doubts about him, but you could definitely see the potential in him tonight. some nice moves to the basket and altered a lot of shots…glad he’s playing under a damned good HC!
There is no doubt that Zeller has realized that the clock is ticking and his playing time at UNC is coming to a close. He has been much more vocal during games and of course he has been playing like a very confident Senior. Even though that is increasingly rare, he is now doing what was hoped for.
If the other guys can catch fire like him, the season is going to be a huge success.
Henson seems to like playing off of Zeller and a high/low side to side ball sharing arrangement seems to be developing as well.
If Jordan wanted to fix the Bobcats he would figure a way to get both Henson and Zeller. Both will be solid NBA players for the next 15 years.
Zeller runs the court as well as Bobby Jones did as a pro, and I believe that Bobby would not argue with that.
Henson runs like a young Scottie Pippen, although with a different skill set; his talent potential is nowhere near the roof.
No Tar Heels on Charlotte, too small of a stage…. CNNSI did a nice story on Tywon, and how he is the next great Pg in the west
Talking about realizing that the clock is ticking (OK, this is my last “talking about” segway for a while), tonight may be Seth Greenberg and the Hokie’s last chance to pull off one very special game before Seth starts arranging his luggage and packing.
Duke’s shooters have been struggling a bit, and we know their D has not been up to par, so if VPI could work a little magic…..well, stranger things have happened.
^Yeah, VT may be toast when it comes to their own post-season play, but they are better than their record, and with 4 games against Duke (2x), FSU and UVa, they could play a very large role in determining who gets the #1-seed in the ACCT.
Agreed. They could go from having their season spoiled to being a spoiler of sorts.
Since UNC controls its own destiny with Va. and Duke, if I could guarantee one of those games for VPI to win it would be @ FSU. Tonight would be nice as well.
THE LEGEND OF CAIN & ABEL (ZELLER)
Tyler Zeller turnin’ it on
as we head towards the Show
– 17, 18 ‘bounds a game,
rackin’ up points down low
What hath inspired such a burst?
– with the toughness of a Metallica roadie?
I’ll tell you what Z to me confided:
“I’d be embarrassed to be drafted behind Cody!”
^^Yeah, UVa could also play a big role, as they play both UNC and FSU twice. I hate to say it, but when Duke goes to FSU on February 23rd, it is very possible that it will be in the Tar Heels best interest for the Blue Devils to win…
Agreed C.Michael. I honestly don’t see FSU losing another ACC game unless it is Duke. But then again, I don’t see us losing another ACC game either.
^On paper, the only game I think that FSU is likely to lose (if only barely) is when they go to UVa. But then again, on a paper, this team should never have lost to Princeton at home, or to Clemson by 20.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it was announced yesterday that the hardwood repairs to the basketball court in Charlottesville have been completed, and they will not be playing any more games on paper.
C.Michael,
dook losing to FSU and UNC with a 2 seed in the ACCT > dook winning, IMO.
Just came across an interview at IC with one of the authors of a new book, “Duke Sucks”, which came out a couple of days ago, and appears will be a very entertaining read, even outside the UNC fan base.
The book’s description, at a very well-known internet vendor, is hilarious. (This is not…I repeat not a plug for the book, just an FYI)
^i cant believe i wasnt consulted as a source.
BoyWilliams
No way Cody is drafted this year.
But he could be on a list in proximity to the Bro.
It is ridiculous that T Zeller has not received more recognition this year. It is almost as if it is “expected” since he is a senior. I guess there are more sexy players to write and comment about.
If TZ keeps playing like this, we will get to see one of those photos at some point with a basketball net around his neck this season.
^Cody is projected to be a lottery pick in this coming draft.
Has anyone started reading “Duke Sucks”? I am reading it on my Kindle about 26% into the book there is a nice little section about the development of big men under Roy Williams vs. Coach K.
i think i just saw a reverse manhug by the dookies. or possibly an amorous Heimlich maneuver.
it was just a layup, dude.
Bulloch will guard Austin Rivers, right?
6 days!