Tale of the Tape: UNC-Florida State

Liz Condo-USA TODAY Sports

A statistical look at UNC's Monday match-up with Florida State

North Carolina FSU
Record 17-7 15-10
ACC Record 7-4 6-7
KenPom Rank 25th 35th
Points per game 75.8 71.0
Points per possession 1.07 1.06
Offensive Efficiency(Rank) 109.7(77th) 111.1(58th)
Defensive Efficiency(Rank) 93.1(12th) 96.4(34th)
Tempo(Rank) 71.9(15th) 67.3(148th)
Offensive eFG% 48.7% 51.6%
Defensive eFG% 44.8% 43.9%
Field Goal % 45.5% 46.7%
3P FG% 32.3% 36.9%
Offensive Reb Rate 38.5% 35.9%
Defensive Reb Rate 68.5% 64.6%
TO Rate 17.5% 21.4%
FT Rate 45.0% 42.0%
KenPom win probability FSU 60%

Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet

FSU has one of the oddest stat combinations I have seen this season. On one hand the Seminoles are holding teams to 41.7% shooting on two pointers and 32.3% on threes. That first number is seventh nationally. Since FSU is forcing so many missed shots that would mean there are plenty of defensive rebounds to be had. Unfortunately for FSU they do a really poor job of collecting them. FSU opponents grab offensive rebounds at a rate of 35.4% which is 313th. So despite forcing teams to generally shoot poorly, FSU doesn't collect the rebounds.

FSU's defensive rebounding issues and the Seminoles' 21.5% turnover rate are two positives for UNC in the overall numbers comparison here. In the past three games UNC opponents are averaging 15.6 turnovers per game with Pitt's 19.6% turnover rate being the lowest. During those three games the Tar Heels have averaged 10 steals per game. Forcing turnovers have been crucial in accelerating the tempo of the game as evidenced by UNC getting to 71 possessions against a Pitt team with one of the slower tempos in the ACC. If UNC can force turnovers and rebound well against FSU, the recent streak of success has a good chance at continuing.

Standing in the way of that is the fact Florida State has a lot of size as in the Seminoles have two players who are over seven feet to go along with multiple in the 6-7 to 6-9 range. FSU is #2 in the country in average height which makes the lack of defensive rebounding a curious thing. And in an odd twist, UNC will have played the #1 and #2 teams in effective height this season. Kentucky is first in that category.

The other concern for UNC is FSU's three point shooting. Now, the stats say FSU is so-so in this area but in the past two games in Tallahassee between these two teams FSU is 23-49 from three. The upside for UNC is none of the players who did most of the damage in those games will be playing on Monday. Still, the Seminoles have three players shooting 36% or better from three going against a UNC team that continues to hold teams at around 30% from beyond the arc.

Log In Sign Up

Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Tar Heel Blog

You must be a member of Tar Heel Blog to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Tar Heel Blog. You should read them.

Join Tar Heel Blog

You must be a member of Tar Heel Blog to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Tar Heel Blog. You should read them.




Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.