Tale of the Tape: UNC-Virginia Tech

Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

A statistical look at UNC vs Virginia Tech

North Carolina Virginia Tech
Record 21-7 9-18
ACC Record 11-4 2-13
KenPom Rank 19th 185th
Points per game 77.3 64.6
Points per possession 1.09 0.99
Offensive Efficiency(Rank) 112.5(38th) 98.8(270th)
Defensive Efficiency(Rank) 94.0(19th) 100.7(93rd)
Tempo(Rank) 71.2(22nd) 64.8(266th)
Offensive eFG% 49.6% 47.7%
Defensive eFG% 45.6% 46.7%
Field Goal % 46.2% 41.2%
3P FG% 34.1% 36.7%
Offensive Reb Rate 39.1% 32.3%
Defensive Reb Rate 68.8% 70.2%
TO Rate 17.2% 19.8%
FT Rate 45.0% 38.8%
KenPom win probability UNC 84%

Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet

This is as big a statistical mismatch as UNC has seen since December and that includes Boston College because at the very least, the Eagles had some semblance of an offense. Virginia Tech is lacking on both ends of the floor and it is even more pronounced with you look at the conference only stats. Generally speaking every team has their OE and DE affected by conference play. UNC's overall OE is 112.5 but in ACC play it is 108.4. UNC's DE is 94.0 overall but 99.8 in ACC play. The reason for that is ACC play is a sample of games against a higher level of competition than teams see for most of the non-conference schedule. In other words league play is just plain tougher even if the teams aren't good on paper.

Bearing that in mind, Virginia Tech has really taken a hit in ACC play. The Hokies' OE of 98.8 is already a problem but in ACC games it is actually 91.6. On the defensive side the DE in ACC play is 108.5. In ACC play Virginia Tech is shooting 31.1% from three, 41.4% on twos, 59.5% at the free throw line. The Hokies also do a poor job taking care of the basketball and don't force a lot of turnovers either.

Virginia Tech is 1-13 in the current calendar year. They lost to UNC Greensboro, a team UNC beat by 30 but beat Miami twice, a team UNC lost to at home. It should also be noted that despite some fairly putrid numbers Virginia Tech took Pitt to double overtime and was leading Virginia late in the game at home. UNC should not take the Hokies lightly, especially with how the Tar Heels have started recent road games.

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