Vitals

Number: 40
Position: Wing Forward
Height: 6-8
Weight: 215 lbs
Year: Sophomore
2010-11 and Career Stats: 37 gms, 15.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 42.3 FG%, 34.4 3FG%

What Happened Last Season

Harrison Barnes came into the season the most heralded freshman in the history of freshmen college basketball players. He was named to the preseason All-American team and the assumption was he would average 20 ppg, win national player of the year and bring UNC back from the brink following a season in the NIT. Well, the last part happened but Barnes individual performance suffered early on(remember 0-12 vs Minnesota) before ultimately showing us flashes of what everyone expected him to do(40 points vs Clemson, multiple game winning shots.) After the early struggles, Barnes closed the season scoring 19.1 ppg and 45 FG% over the final 20 games.

Outlook For This Season

The same hype machine who dropped an 800-lb gorilla on Barnes’ back last fall is cranked up again with much the same expectations. The difference is those expectations are at least founded in some tangible examples of Barnes playing 37 games on the college level. Barnes spent the better part of his summer working on his game, particularly his ballhandling since turnovers in traffic were a cause for concern last season. Heading into this season, Barnes will be expected to pick up right where he left off scoring 18-20 ppg to lead the #1 team on the path to the Final Four. Barnes’ scoring both from the perimeter and in creating his own shoot will be crucial since it adds another dynamic to the offense. There is also that intangible “something” Barnes has which results in the “wow” play or a clutch shot. Barnes is a go-to guy who has the skill sets to take a game over. That is a nice option to have in a game where the team might be struggling overall at any given point.

Main Concern

In my opinion there two biggest concerns regarding Barnes is (1) that he overthinks or pressures himself so much he plays poorly and (2) in-game consistency. Barnes is a noted perfectionist and during the course of the game it is possible for him to complicate an easy play. John Henson pointed that out in this excellent piece on Barnes running in this month’s ESPN The Magazine. Instead of making the relatively easy play, Barnes might do more than is needed. Last season with Barnes there was a tendency to disappear for stretches or play well in one half but not so much in the second. Consistency in his shot and scoring would make him even more dangerous.

Wish List

20.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.5 apg, 47 FG%, 36 3P%

If Barnes is to be an All-American as projected, scoring at least 20 ppg is almost a necessity. Barnes actually ended last season as a decent three point shooter(34%) so a mere two percentage point uptick in that is doable and likely though I would expect he ends up taking fewer perimeter shots in favor of drives to the basket and pull-up jumpers. Barnes needs to be dominant at times but with UNC’s abundance of offensive firepower he doesn’t necessarily have to be. It is a nice position for him in terms of pressure and a nice situation for UNC to know it is an available weapon in tough games.

Vitals

Number: 31
Position: Forward
Height: 6-10
Weight: 220 lbs
Year: Junior
2010-11 Stats: 37 gms, 11.7 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 3.2 blocks/g, 50.0 FG%, 47.9 FT%
Career Stats: 74 gms, 8.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.4 blocks/g, 49.3 FG%, 45.9 FT%

What Happened Last Season

Having moved back to his natural position in the post, John Henson used his freakish athletic ability to become a game-changer on his way to earning ACC defensive player of the year honors. Like everything else after Some Other Kid walked away from the UNC team, Henson’s play really took off in the last 1/3 of the season on his way to posting 18 double-doubles for the season. His atrocious free-throw shooting also improved down the stretch.

Outlook For This Season

Henson will not be flying under the radar this season, as he was tabbed for preseason all-ACC honors and was second in votes received behind teammate Harrison Barnes. Henson will continue to be a defensive beast with his extremely long arms and springs for legs. Henson should again average a double-double and make life around the basket miserable for opposing shooters.

Main Concerns

Much as last year, the primary concerns with Henson center around his size and his shooting. Henson has added another 10 pounds of bulk but will still not be a banger inside by any stretch. Henson still needs to develop a consistent shot facing the basket and be more reliable from the foul line. Both of those began to improve late last season so we can only hope this will carry over to this season.

Wish List

12.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 32 min/game,  3 blocks/game, 55% FG, 67% FT

This is pretty much a repeat of last year, but Henson should again be Carolina’s leading rebounder and like all the post players, should benefit from improved play on the wing. Henson will hopefully be enough of an offensive threat that defenses cannot focus on Zeller and will shoot well enough from the line to make fouling him not worth it.

Vitals

Number: 5
Position: Point Guard
Height: 6-4
Weight: 195 lbs
Year: Sophomore
2010-11 and Career Stats: 37 gms, 6.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 6.2 apg, 1.1 spg, 42.0 FG%, 38.5 3FG%

What Happened Last Season

Marshall came off of the bench, and Carolina struggled (12-5).

Marshall started, and Carolina was awesome (17-3)!

Okay, so maybe it is not that simple, and considering that 5 of those 17 wins were by 3 points or less, and a 6th was in overtime, there is a little bit of luck that has to be factored into the difference, but no one can deny that there was definitely a palpable difference in the way the team acted when they were on the court with Marshall as the starter.  What is interesting, is that while the team’s level of play took off after the Georgia Tech game, Marshall’s play actually took a small step backwards:

While the drop in FG% and 3FG% that occurred after Marshall was inserted into the starting lineup is somewhat expected due to an increase in shots taken, the fact that Marshall’s overall FG% dropped to below 40% the last 20 games of the season is somewhat alarming and is certainly something that will have to be significantly improved in this coming season.

Outlook For This Season

Absolutely no PG-controversy.  Barring the obvious, which won’t be mentioned, Marshall will start every game for the Tar Heels and by the middle of February, you can expect that he will probably be on the court a 32-35 minutes every game.  Given the almost absurd amount of talent that will be surrounding Marshall, and the ease at which they all seem to play together, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that Marshall will make a run at Ed Cota’s school record of 8.1 assists per game.  And if the Heels make a deep run in March/April, Marshall could become the first Tar Heel to amass 300 assists in a single season.

Main Concern

Shooting.  Looking at Marshall’s numbers from last season, he actually shot fairly well from three, as his 38.5 3FG% was better than either Wayne Ellington or Ty Lawson shot as freshmen.   The issue here lies in the fact that Marshall only took 52 3-point attempts, and it was really his unwillingness to shoot the open three that allowed opposing defenses to sag off, and not his (supposed) inability to hit the shot.  Looking forward to this season, Carolina would benefit greatly if Marshall became a consistent threat to take 2-3 three-point shots a game, while maintaining a percentage between 37-40%.  This threat should also provide more lanes for Marshall to get to the basket for easier finishes, which should help raise his overall FG% into the mid-40s, where it needs to be for UNC to reach its ultimate levels of success.

Wish List

10.0 ppg, 7.5 apg, 3.5 rpg; 45.0 FG%, 38.0% 3FG%, 75.0 FT%

These are basically Ed Cota’s career averages, and certainly level of play that Marshall could achieve this season.  One thing that might prevent him from achieving really high assist totals is the fact that UNC could be involved in a number of blowouts that would greatly reduce the total number of minutes that he plays, but at the end of the day, that is a really nice problem to think about.

In the ramp up to the 2011-12 basketball season, Tar Heel Fan will be profiling key Tar Heels who will likely be major contributors this season.  Today’s profile looks at guard Dexter Strickland.

Vitals

Number: 1
Position: Guard
Height: 6-3
Weight: 180 lbs
Year: Junior
2010-11 Stats: 37 gms, 7.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.2 spg, 45.6 FG%, 68.6 FT%
Career Stats: 73 gms, 6.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 44.5 FG%, 68.8 FT%

What Happened Last Season

This happened:

While this play was clearly Strickland’s singular moment of the season, his best overall game came two weeks later, when he scored 13 points and grabbed 6 rebounds against Wahington, all while completely owning the Huskies’ star point guard, Isaiah Thomas, on the defensive side of the ball.  Oh, and all of this was done while playing through a knee injury that would have sidelined many players.

Looking at the season as a whole, the biggest criticism of Strickland’s game was that he did not shoot enough, or well enough (25.0 3FG%).  But beyond that, Strickland actually had a really good season.  On a team where he was going to be the 5th option regardless of how well he shot, Strickland gave the Heels exactly what they needed, serving as the team’s best defensive player on the perimeter and a player who was able to push the tempo in the open court.  For the season, Strickland led the team in steals (46), led all guards in rebounding (3.1 rpg) and led all perimeter players in FG% (45.6%)

Outlook For This Season

The switch appeared to “flip” for Strickland last season during the Heels run through the NCAA Tournament.  Strickland played arguably his best basketball during UNC’s four tournament games, averaging 10.3 ppg (FG%: 55.5; FT%: 78.6), 3.3 rpg, 2.5 apg and 2.0 spg, to go along with lights out defense and a consistent aggression in the open court.  Heading into this season, it is probably fair to expect more of the same from Strickland, as he should be completely comfortable with his role on the team, and the addition of Stillman White should limit the amount of time Strickland needs to serve as to sole point guard on the floor of the Tar Heels.  Look for Strickland to continue pushing the envelope in the open court and be a dark horse contender to be the Heels leader in, “Holy Crap!!”-plays.

Main Concern

Three point shooting.  Does Strickland need to be a lethal shooter for the Heels to reach the ultimate levels of success?  No, especially if Barnes and Marshall shoot like they did the second half of the season, and Bullock and Hairston can provide 3 or 4 three-pointers a game off of the bench.  But if Strickland does happen to improve his 3-point accuracy from the mid-20′s to the mid-30′s, then he, and the Heels as a whole, become borderline unguardable.

Wish List

10.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.0 spg; 48.0 FG%, 78% FT%

Basically, the player we saw the last four games of last season.  The defense is a given, but if Strickland can consistently play at that level on the offensive side of the ball, including looking for “Ty Lawson – one man fast break” whenever possible, then UNC will be in great shape to produce a 30-win season and make a very deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  And if he adds in the wrinkle of a respectable 3-point shot, then the sky is the limit, for both he and the team.

Vitals

Number: 35
Position: Wing G/F
Height: 6-7
Weight: 205 lbs
Year: Sophomore
2010-11 and Career Stats: 27 gms, 6.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.6 apg, 36.7 FG%, 29.6 3FG%

What Happened Last Season

Reggie Bullock came in with Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes hailed as the saviors of the program following the 2010 season. Bullock came off the bench primarily backing up Barnes at the wing forward position but was hampered most of the season by a knee problem stemming from an injury in high school. That injury led to Bullock being shutdown in late February for surgery to repair the knee. Prior to that, Bullock had to standout games versus Clemson and Boston College where he scored 16 and 18 points. In general Bullock was a solid backup to Barnes but because of the knee did not play up to his potential.

Outlook For This Season

With the injury to Leslie McDonald, Bullock’s importance to this team cannot be understated. UNC needs three point shooting which will be limited coming from Kendall Marshall and Dexter Strickland. Barnes will contribute some in this area but Roy Williams will look to Bullock and freshman P.J. Hairston to come off the bench a la Danny Green in 2008 and light opposing teams up. Bullock’s knee is healthy and based on his performance in the exhibition against UNC Pembroke he looks physically ready showing some explosiveness and driving to the basket for layups. His defense also looks to be in solid shape, probably ahead of Hairston at this point.

Main Concern

Barring injury, this will be Bullock’s first full season. While he did play three fourths of last season, some concern is raised as to his ability to handle the full grind. Also, his knee has been surgically repaired twice now so the potential for injury is always hovering in the background. Aside from that Bullock needs to be a consistent shooter from outside(35% or better) for UNC to really reach its full potential as a team. Since he has not done that yet, you sort of want to see it first before banking on it.

Wish List

9.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 45 FG%, 37 3P%.

Essentially, Bullock will come into games to give the offense a shot in the arm from the perimeter. In addition, given Bullock’s size, he should be able to help with rebounding and his defense should be solid if not very good. If Bullock can come in off the bench and hit 37% of his threes along with similar shooting from Marshall, Barnes and Hairston, that is all UNC needs to  keep opposing defenses away from those zone defense which gave the Heels so much trouble last season.

In the ramp up to the 2011-12 basketball season, Tar Heel Fan will be profiling key Tar Heels who will likely be major contributors this season.  Today’s profile looks at guard Justin Watts.

Vitals

Number: 24
Position: Guard
Height: 6-5
Weight: 210 lbs
Year: Senior
2010-11 Stats: 34 gms, 1.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 37.5 FG%, 53.3 FT%
Career Stats: 83 gms, 1.5 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 34.9 FG%, 49.0 FT%

What Happened Last Season

Much like the entire team, Justin Watts season really falls into two categories: before the Georgia Tech game, and after it.  Watts averaged 12.3 minutes per game during the first half of the season, which included a career game against Hofstra, in which he scored 13 points on 6 of 6 shooting from the field.  However, Watts was injured in the first game following the meltdown in Atlanta, causing him to miss the next three games.  By the time he returned, Roy had already begun paring down the rotation, which left Watts relegated to only about 6 minutes a game over the team’s final 16 contests.

Outlook For This Season

North Carolina returns a very talented team, which unlike last year, has added depth in the front court that will greatly diminish the minutes available to Watts at the PF position. Watts should still see minutes early in the season, as Desmond Hubert and Jackson Simmons will be adjusting to college basketball and Roy generally likes to play a lot of players in November and December to keep the team fresh for February and March (and hopefully, April). But assuming that Simmons and/or Hubert prove to be capable of providing emergency minutes, and that there are no major injuries, it is hard to see Watts making a significant impact once conference play starts.

Main Concern

Senior leadership.  Despite retuning nearly the entire roster, this is still a relatively young team.  Watts may not play a lot, but he is a senior who owns an NCAA Championship ring, and he could make a very valuable contribution by helping to keep the team’s focus and energy where it needs to be in order to cut down the nets.

Wish List

For Watts to lead Stillman White, Jackson Simmons and Desmond Hubert as the most talented “Blue Team” in the country (…and for them to get a lot of run).  Watts actually averaged an impressive 8.0 rebounds per 40 minutes last season, and if he could continue that production in the non-end of game minutes that he gets this season, that would be a bonus.  But more than anything, the biggest wish is for Watts to join Tyler Zeller as the first Carolina basketball players to ever be on two NCAA Championship teams.

11-Stillman White: PG, 6-0, 160 lbs
14-Desmond Hubert: F, 6-9, 205 lbs
15-P.J. Hairston: SG, 6-5, 220 lbs
21-Jackson Simmons: F, 6-7, 205 lbs
43-James Michael McAdoo: F, 6-9, 220 lbs

Outlook For This Season

In reality there are only two of these five expected to make an impact. Stilman White was brought on late in the recruiting season as insurance for the PG slot. White may see some time in games during the first two months as Roy Williams likes to rest players early on. Desmond Hubert is considered to be very raw but is really long will serve as practice fodder for the first team. Then there is Jackson Simmons who came in as a preferred walk-on but was given a scholarship when a slot opened up. Simmons was a prolific rebounder in high school but like Hubert will have a large role in practice than in games.

P.J. Hairston and James Michael McAdoo are elite players and extremely talented. McAdoo is one of four Tar Heel frontline players projected as a first round NBA Draft pick. Think about that for a moment. McAdoo will come off the bench and he is considered a lottery type of player. Because UNC has so much experienced talent on the front line in Tyler Zeller, John Henson and Harrison Barnes, McAdoo’s impact will be somewhat lessened. However bringing a player with his talent off the bench is a definite upgrade over Justin Knox. In short I don’t think McAdoo will necessarily be Marvin Williams but will be solid giving UNC quality depth upfront. On the wing, Hairston is the one freshman UNC really needs to do what he does best: Shoot three-pointers and make them. Hairston is a shooter but also has the athleticism and strength to be a scorer from anywhere on the court. With Leslie McDonald out UNC will have Reggie Bullock, Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall as the primary deep threats though I am expecting to see less perimeter shooting from Barnes this season. Dexter Strickland could improve but if UNC has designs on a national title Hairston needs to join Bullock and Marshall in the 35-40% accuracy range from beyond the arc.

Main Concerns

Experience is the obvious choice here though with so many younger players thrust into the limelight in college basketball these days, experience is not necessary to make an impact. White, Simmons and Hubert will have very limited role. Hairston and McAdoo will have more expected of them and therefore need to acclimate quickly to the college game. In the case of both I would say how well they play defense is a more important aspect than the offense. UNC will have one of the better defensive teams in the Roy Williams era in Chapel Hill. It is important when players come in off the bench, they can maintain the defensive level established by the starters. In Hairston’s case, his defense is going to dictate how much he plays with Bullock being given an edge in that department thus far. On the offensive end, McAdoo will need to acclimate to the physicality of the game and Hairston could see issues shooting the ball. Freshman shooter sometimes see a drop off with their shot when they move to the college level. One thing working to Hairston’s advantage is he played in prep school last season not high school. That meant going against a little stiffer competition that he may have seen otherwise. Conditioning is the other concern for freshmen, especially in Roy’s up-tempo system.

Wish List

In some ways what McAdoo will end up contributing will be gravy though he could end up playing a role in crucial games where foul trouble plays a role. UNC needs 18-20 mpg from McAdoo to spell Henson and Zeller but unlike Knox last year truly be an offensive threat so the Heels can keep the foot on the pedal. Hairston is the player who can really give UNC a boost. The Heels need three point shooters and if Hairston comes in the mid-30% range shooting threes along with Bullock doing much the same, the offensive balance missing last season will be there. In essence Hairston and McAdoo fill out UNC’s eight man rotation which will carry the load when March rolls around.

Vitals

Number: 11
Position: Point guard
Height: 6-2
Weight: 180 lbs
Year: Junior
2009-10 Stats: 37 gms, 8.5 ppg, 6.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.9 A/TO, 35.2% 3P%
Career Stats: 75 gms, 4.9 ppg, 3.9 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.8 A/TO, 32.8% 3P%

What Happened Last Season

A lot, but this will just focus on what happened on the court.  Drew stepped into a nearly impossible situation by following a player in Lawson who had just had one of the greatest seasons in the history of UNC point guards and arguably should have been the NPOY.  In many ways, Drew’s season last year was individual embodiment of the team’s season: flashes of good-to-great play, followed by too many stretches that just made you shake your head.  Looking at the positives, last season Drew significantly improved his shooting percentages across the board and was 6th in the nation with his average of 6.0 APG.  In fact, Drew’s final total of 222 assists was the 9th highest single-season total in UNC history.  The names ahead of him on that list?  Cota (4), Felton (2), Smith, and Lawson…  Pretty solid company.

On the downside, Drew had the second most turnovers in the ACC and many other times he had passes that may not have resulted in turnovers, but were not put in a place that gave the receiver the best opportunity to score.  Additionally, Drew’s defensive play, especially off the ball, was most accurately described as “inconsistent,” as judged by many of Roy’s post game comments and Drew’s very low steal total.  [Note: Steals are not necessarily a great measure of individual defensive prowess, as many steals result from good team play; however, less than 1.0 SPG is very low for a starting PG on a Roy Williams' team.]

Outlook For This Season

Point guard play and depth, has a chance to be a strength for UNC this season.  As was mentioned previously, Drew significantly improved his performance last year despite having to play 12 games with the index and middle fingers of his shooting hand taped together.  Looking at the games he played before and after that 12-game stretch, Drew had the following numbers:

45.2% FG, 39.4% 3PT, 72.6% FT, and 2.0 A/T

Simply performing at that level, consistently, for the entire season would represent a good baseline for this year’s team, especially if he increases his defensive intensity and consistency.  It would also not be too surprising to see Drew play off-the-ball a little more this season, given his ability to hit the three and the team’s depth at PG.

Main Concerns

Turnovers and passing accuracy.  The fact that Drew should be being playing with much more talented teammates, particularly in the backcourt, should help eliminate some of the turnovers on its own.  However, in order for that talent to be most effective, it will be imperative that the majority of Drew’s passes are delivered in a fashion that allows the recipient to be in a good position to finish the play.  Defensive intensity will also be something to watch, but I think Roy will be able to better dictate that simply by adjusting playing time between Drew, Marshall, and in some cases, Strickland.

Wish List

11.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, 1.7 spg, 2.3 A/T, 48% FG, 42% 3PT, 80% FT

This may be asking a lot, as it is essentially Ty Lawson’s line from 2008, but that is why it is a “Wish List.”   Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton both made big jumps between their sophomore and junior seasons, so the question is, can Drew do the same?  While Drew is not the type of elite talent that they were, he is still very talented so it is reasonable to expect that he too will blossom this year, especially when you consider the improved talent he will have around him.  When all is said and done, I think the only thing that will keep Drew from leading the nation in assists will be the fact that Marshall will also see a lot of time at the point.