Breaking It Down

BCS conference teams I feel confident that UNC could beat on any given Saturday:

• Colorado (0-3)
  
• Illinois (1-2)

BCS conference teams I feel that UNC should be able to handle, although Furman did put up 42 points, so who really knows:

• Duke (0-3). They did play Wake Forest close.
  
• N.C. State (1-2). The only fanbase more disillusioned than the Tar Heels'.
  
• Virginia (1-2). Wyoming is the lone (OT) win, not to mention the loss to Western Michigan.
  
• Syracuse (1-2). Only snapped an 11-game losing streak by playing Illinois.
  
• Connecticut (1-1). Played worse against Wake Forest than Syracuse and Duke.
  
• Stanford (0-3). Lost to San Jose State. Got routed by Navy, which doesn't bode well for Duke.

Thoroughly mediocre to bad BCS teams that would still beat UNC at this point:

• Wake Forest (3-0)
  
• Maryland (2-1)
  
• Baylor (1-2)
  
• Iowa State (2-1)
  
• Cincinnati (1-2)
  
• Indiana (2-1)
  
• Northwestern (2-1)
  
• Kentucky (2-1)
  
• Mississippi (1-2)
  
• Mississippi State (0-3)
  
• Vanderbilt (0-3)

Percentile this would put UNC in: 12.3%
Wins UNC might get for the season if they keep playing like this: 4