I don't cover women's basketball here much. It's not that I don't enjoy the game. I was a regular at the home games in Carmichael as a student, and made it to a couple of ACC tournaments in Rock Hill. It's just rather difficult to cover from 3,000 miles away.
I do enjoy the recent trend in women's basketball to pit the top teams against one another. Some of that is a matter of where the talent lies. UNC, Duke and Mayland are undoubtably the top three teams in the country, are all Final Four teams from last year, all were undefeated until Maryland and Duke met this weekend and they'll play five games amongst themselves this season in the regular season alone. But Duke is also playing Tennessee in a week, Connecticut and Tennessee squared off last week and North Carolina has arranged contests with both Tennessee and Connecticut this year. The Heels are the only loss on the Volunteers' schedule, and meet the Huskies on Monday.
It occurs to me now would be a good time to see how the top teams match up statistically. Unfortunately, there isn't a Pomeroyesque compilation of such numbers, or if there is, I couldn't find it with a quick perusal through the Women's Hoops Blog. But I had a free hour and a felicity with a spreadsheet, so I tossed some together.
These are six of the top seven teams in the country, according to last week's AP poll. No. 6 Ohio State has been left out only because I don't have all day. The teams have only lost to one another, save LSU, who fell to No. 9 Baylor. (The Tigers are also the sole loss of Ohio State) The stats are thourgh whatever day the conference website provides - the 12th for the ACC and SEC (hence before the Maryland-Duke game), and the 13th for the Big East.
Team PPP eFG OReb TO % FTP Maryland (18-0) 1.18 0.591 0.445 0.239 0.279 North Carolina (19-0) 1.11 0.535 0.531 0.247 0.218 Duke (17-0) 1.07 0.499 0.417 0.226 0.286 Tennessee (15-1) 1.07 0.524 0.400 0.232 0.240 Connecticut (14-1) 1.07 0.530 0.426 0.244 0.186 LSU (15-2) 1.00 0.475 0.425 0.201 0.190
Team OPPP OeFG DReb OTO % OFTO North Carolina (19-0) 0.61 0.351 0.787 0.344 0.294 Duke (17-0) 0.63 0.329 0.762 0.317 0.420 LSU (15-2) 0.65 0.339 0.736 0.293 0.443 Connecticut (14-1) 0.66 0.351 0.665 0.259 0.348 Maryland (18-0) 0.74 0.372 0.772 0.212 0.369 Tennessee (15-1) 0.78 0.433 0.721 0.255 0.413
Maryland and Tennessee lag behind the others in defensive ability, a fact that might go a long way in explaining this week's Terp loss to Duke. Maryland may score more efficiently than the rest, but if they haven't beeen tested against many good defenses, the Blue Devils may have cauht them unprepared. This bodes well for the Maryland-UNC game, as last year the Terps were the Heels' only loss.
Team 3FGA/A 3FG % North Carolina (19-0) 0.287 0.352 Maryland (18-0) 0.256 0.411 Tennessee (15-1) 0.251 0.415 Duke (17-0) 0.218 0.336 Connecticut (14-1) 0.211 0.317 LSU (15-2) 0.177 0.297
So what does this mean for the UNC-Connecticut game? It's tough to draw many conclusions when I haven't seen the teams play and the levels of competition on each team's schedule vary wildly, but things look good for the Heels. They should get quite a few turnovers from the Huskies, and be able to muscle out most of the rebounds. If they can get by a very tough UConn defense, things look to go their way. But we'll see what the actual game brings.
Below the cut I'll put the stats for all three conferences in a whole, if you're interested.
Team PPP eFG OReb TO % FTP Maryland (18-0) 1.18 0.591 0.445 0.239 0.279 North Carolina (19-0) 1.11 0.535 0.531 0.247 0.218 Duke (17-0) 1.07 0.499 0.417 0.226 0.286 Florida State (13-3) 1.01 0.480 0.480 0.238 0.207 Virginia Tech (11-5) 0.99 0.468 0.422 0.226 0.262 Georgia Tech (10-6) 0.99 0.464 0.453 0.248 0.209 Boston College (10-6) 0.92 0.486 0.327 0.279 0.185 Clemson (9-9) 0.91 0.446 0.451 0.231 0.165 Miami (9-9) 0.91 0.450 0.432 0.248 0.203 NC State (12-5) 0.90 0.428 0.422 0.230 0.183 Virginia (11-7) 0.88 0.449 0.400 0.265 0.196 Wake Forest (8-8) 0.85 0.419 0.482 0.275 0.178 Team OPPP OeFG DReb OTO % OFTO North Carolina 0.61 0.351 0.787 0.344 0.294 Duke 0.63 0.329 0.762 0.317 0.420 Maryland 0.74 0.372 0.772 0.212 0.369 NC State 0.77 0.399 0.705 0.269 0.358 Boston College 0.81 0.402 0.706 0.212 0.393 Florida State 0.82 0.418 0.728 0.252 0.352 Georgia Tech 0.82 0.428 0.701 0.295 0.379 Virginia 0.87 0.438 0.767 0.234 0.275 Wake Forest 0.87 0.421 0.721 0.241 0.321 Virginia Tech 0.90 0.442 0.736 0.240 0.351 Miami 0.92 0.444 0.730 0.249 0.357 Clemson 0.94 0.470 0.642 0.271 0.289 Team 3FGA/A 3FG % Miami 0.309 0.294 North Carolina 0.287 0.352 Maryland 0.256 0.411 Virginia Tech 0.247 0.316 Wake Forest 0.246 0.332 Georgia Tech 0.225 0.376 Duke 0.218 0.336 Boston College 0.215 0.341 Clemson 0.202 0.339 NC State 0.201 0.319 Virginia 0.178 0.243 Florida State 0.163 0.314 Team PPP eFG OReb TO % FTP Vanderbilt (15-2) 1.11 0.558 0.430 0.221 0.242 Georgia (14-3) 1.07 0.534 0.388 0.220 0.241 Tennessee (15-1) 1.07 0.524 0.400 0.232 0.240 Ole Miss (14-4) 1.03 0.448 0.529 0.191 0.230 Kentucky (13-4) 1.01 0.459 0.474 0.200 0.222 Auburn (14-4) 1.00 0.485 0.418 0.234 0.241 LSU (15-2) 1.00 0.475 0.425 0.201 0.190 Arkansas (15-3) 0.97 0.452 0.463 0.219 0.231 South Carolina (10-7) 0.95 0.435 0.461 0.233 0.197 Florida (6-11) 0.92 0.427 0.460 0.225 0.255 Alabama (10-8) 0.90 0.481 0.392 0.293 0.190 Mississippi St (10-6) 0.87 0.418 0.450 0.260 0.180 Team OPPP OeFG DReb OTO % OFTO LSU 0.65 0.339 0.736 0.293 0.443 South Carolina 0.73 0.397 0.757 0.264 0.342 Kentucky 0.75 0.388 0.723 0.317 0.448 Tennessee 0.78 0.433 0.721 0.255 0.413 Auburn 0.81 0.402 0.769 0.262 0.358 Mississippi St 0.81 0.403 0.689 0.275 0.347 Ole Miss 0.81 0.437 0.754 0.227 0.316 Arkansas 0.82 0.426 0.668 0.271 0.293 Alabama 0.84 0.427 0.719 0.326 0.362 Georgia 0.84 0.424 0.723 0.278 0.332 Vanderbilt 0.89 0.449 0.716 0.293 0.305 Florida 0.94 0.466 0.733 0.298 0.303 Team 3FGA/A 3FG % Georgia 0.314 0.393 Mississippi St 0.291 0.272 Alabama 0.277 0.344 Arkansas 0.260 0.320 Kentucky 0.260 0.299 Florida 0.253 0.309 Vanderbilt 0.252 0.416 Tennessee 0.251 0.415 Auburn 0.197 0.366 South Carolina 0.191 0.241 LSU 0.177 0.297 Ole Miss 0.177 0.260 Team PPP eFG OReb TO % FTP Connecticut (14-1) 1.07 0.530 0.426 0.244 0.186 DePaul (11-5) 1.05 0.480 0.413 0.192 0.180 Cincinnati (10-5) 1.03 0.491 0.397 0.224 0.191 Marquette (16-2) 1.02 0.482 0.454 0.228 0.288 Louisville (17-1) 1.01 0.491 0.494 0.242 0.193 Providence (12-5) 1.00 0.486 0.379 0.193 0.197 USF (13-4) 0.98 0.446 0.512 0.214 0.255 Notre Dame (11-5) 0.97 0.460 0.389 0.228 0.267 Rutgers (9-5) 0.93 0.496 0.323 0.279 0.213 Seton Hall (9-7) 0.93 0.434 0.406 0.210 0.195 Villanova (7-10) 0.93 0.450 0.383 0.194 0.168 Georgetown (11-6) 0.92 0.456 0.389 0.234 0.254 Pittsburgh (13-3) 0.92 0.443 0.402 0.252 0.252 West Virginia (10-7) 0.90 0.471 0.441 0.287 0.225 Syracuse (8-10) 0.88 0.430 0.425 0.223 0.209 St. John's (5-10) 0.83 0.417 0.425 0.279 0.237 Team OPPP OeFG DReb OTO % OFTO Connecticut 0.66 0.351 0.665 0.259 0.348 Louisville 0.79 0.393 0.772 0.248 0.286 USF 0.79 0.408 0.747 0.210 0.285 West Virginia 0.82 0.424 0.726 0.282 0.334 Marquette 0.83 0.413 0.739 0.220 0.397 Pittsburgh 0.84 0.420 0.672 0.291 0.379 Rutgers 0.86 0.441 0.691 0.309 0.396 Georgetown 0.89 0.435 0.727 0.237 0.356 St. John's 0.91 0.446 0.716 0.266 0.325 Notre Dame 0.91 0.464 0.699 0.255 0.442 Cincinnati 0.91 0.473 0.674 0.318 0.426 Providence 0.92 0.430 0.744 0.222 0.330 Syracuse 0.94 0.441 0.743 0.177 0.276 Villanova 0.94 0.425 0.736 0.168 0.308 Seton Hall 0.94 0.425 0.741 0.230 0.382 DePaul 0.97 0.461 0.740 0.233 0.389 Team 3FGA/A 3FG % Villanova 0.419 0.344 DePaul 0.357 0.352 Syracuse 0.313 0.268 West Virginia 0.293 0.307 Cincinnati 0.286 0.330 Providence 0.285 0.348 St. John's 0.282 0.322 Louisville 0.275 0.318 Georgetown 0.263 0.329 Marquette 0.260 0.337 Rutgers 0.244 0.359 USF 0.223 0.335 Connecticut 0.211 0.317 Notre Dame 0.178 0.287 Pittsburgh 0.143 0.243 Seton Hall 0.130 0.197