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At Least Now I'll Stop Confusing Seans Williams and Marshall

Dave Sez points to a post by Kenj Pomeroy making the case thatBC was hosed anyway, as their schedule from here on out was next to impossible. Pomeroy thinks statistically the Eagles had four wins left in them - Hartford, Miami, and home games against Florida State and Clemson. The other 8 games they were likely to lose, being the road trips to Clemson and FSU, series with Duke and Virginia Tech, and single games against UNC and Georgia Tech.

I'm a little more skeptical. The reasoning Ken uses is spelled out here, but I don't really like the use of adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies (I'm doubtful the sample size is large enough until late in the season) and I question comparing just the total efficencies, thinking it hides the match-ups of particular team strengths that conflict with one another. Of course, I don't have a better system, but I can't shake the feeling that a fully loaded BC could win a couple more games, especially against Duke and Virginia Tech.

(I also vehmently disagree with the thought that Duke is underrated. They have great defensive numbers, but are playing incredibly unlike other Blue Devil teams in tempo, not succeeding far from home, and turning over the ball with alarming frequency. Any decent team with a strong inside game  and the ability to push the tempo (BC can do both) should have an easy time in Durham.)

Just for experiment's sake I took a look at a Ken's thoughts on a team in that same middle talent range of the ACC as Georgia Tech and FSU - Maryland, who won't be effected at all by the shakeup in Boston. Ken has the Terps going 6-6 the rest of the way - three wins against the ACC cellar (one with Wake Forest, two with State) and three home wins against FSU, Georgia Tech, and Virginia. The six losses are twice to Duke, a home loss to UNC and road losses to FSU, Virginia Tech and Clemson. I'll try to remember to keep track of how the Terps do versus these predictions.

Ken has UNC winning out for the season, which I agree is what should happen on paper. It less likely to happen on the court, unfortunately. Equally favored on by Ken on paper: Ohio State, UCLA, Florida, Kansas, Memphis, Butler, Air Force, and after a loss to Connecticut, Indiana.