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ACC Conference-Only Tempo-Free Statistics 2007

Let us retreat from the world of bloody noses to cold, hard, statistics:

Teams                   PPP    eFG   OReb    TO %   FTP
North Carolina (11-5)  1.12  0.529  0.382  0.187  0.293
Florida State (7-9)    1.10  0.524  0.353  0.196  0.292
Boston College (10-6)  1.09  0.526  0.371  0.217  0.359
Virginia Tech (10-6)   1.09  0.510  0.304  0.162  0.313
Georgia Tech (8-8)     1.07  0.525  0.388  0.222  0.230
Maryland (10-6)        1.06  0.507  0.350  0.195  0.260
Miami (4-12)           1.06  0.470  0.381  0.172  0.197
Virginia (11-5)        1.04  0.489  0.350  0.204  0.265
Duke (8-8)             1.04  0.526  0.340  0.222  0.221
Clemson (7-9)          1.01  0.506  0.337  0.195  0.160
NC State (5-11)        1.01  0.531  0.262  0.225  0.256
Wake Forest (5-11)     0.95  0.476  0.317  0.222  0.259
North Carolina ends the conference season like they did the nonconference, leading the league in offensive efficiency. They're also second in effective feld goal shooting and offensive rebounding, and third in turnover percentage and free throw profficiency. In short, they're an offensive powerhouse.

What I find interesting is the drop in offensive rebounding across the board since last year, when six teams would have outpaced Georgia Tech's league leading percentage. Also of note is Virginia Tech handily outpacing the rest of the league in turnover percentage for the seond year in a row, and Clemson's absolutely pitiful point generation from foul shots, a combination of the league's fewest attempts from the line and the worst shooting percentage.

                OPPP   OeFG   DReb   OTO%   OFTO
North Carolina  0.95  0.478  0.692  0.211  0.328
Duke            0.99  0.500  0.709  0.219  0.337
Maryland        1.00  0.479  0.617  0.209  0.332
Virginia        1.02  0.461  0.666  0.177  0.365
Clemson         1.04  0.530  0.616  0.245  0.374
Georgia Tech    1.06  0.533  0.678  0.230  0.488
Boston College  1.07  0.513  0.636  0.176  0.234
Wake Forest     1.08  0.530  0.695  0.201  0.419
Virginia Tech   1.08  0.497  0.637  0.192  0.361
Florida State   1.09  0.529  0.652  0.195  0.394
NC State        1.11  0.512  0.607  0.171  0.301
Miami           1.17  0.572  0.660  0.188  0.548
The Heels also have the conference's best defense, behind the second best effective shooting defense and the third best defensive rebounding. On the other end of the spectrum, however, is Miami's absolutely dismal performance, a good deal worse than last year's Wake Forest team, the previous gold standard of awful. Opponents scored at will, and even worse, averaged a trip to the free throw line over half the times down the court.
Team            3FGA/A      3FG %
Virginia        0.387   0.360
NC State        0.343   0.370
Florida State   0.328   0.399
Wake Forest     0.327   0.344
Boston College  0.321   0.337
Clemson         0.319   0.336
Miami           0.315   0.346
Duke            0.308   0.361
Georgia Tech    0.281   0.344
North Carolina  0.249   0.333
Maryland        0.223   0.366
Virginia Tech   0.208   0.356
The strange dichotomy between Virginia and Virgina Tech that existed all season remains - two incredibly guard oriented teams, one that shoots the most threes, and the other the least. And yet they have almost identical shooting percentages.

Also interesting is the fact that Maryland, who everyone seems to attribute their resurgence to Strawberry and Jones's hot hands, relies on the three very rarely. The league average as a whole dropped a good amount from last year, but that's almost entirely a function of N.C. State's astronomical number of threes taken last year returning to a more managable number. Exactly half the teams shot less threes than last year, and the other half more.

Finally, a glance at the efficiency margin:

North Carolina  0.17
Maryland        0.06
Duke            0.04
Virginia Tech   0.02
Boston College  0.02
Georgia Tech    0.01
Virginia        0.01
Florida State   0.01
Clemson        -0.02
NC State       -0.10
Miami          -0.12
Wake Forest    -0.12
There are more teams on the plus side this year than last, helped by the double-digit differences of the three basement teams. Of course, UNC is the runaway success this season, topping the margin both they and Duke achieved last year. Looking at this list, you have to wonder why they ended up in a rugby scrum with four other teams at the top of the conference, instead of running away with it.

(Or from the opposite perspective, you can also ask why Virginia, with such a low effective margin, won the regular season championship. It's an impressive bit of game management on the Cavs part, and a big failure on the part of the Heels.)

If you were going to say who makes the NCAA's on the basis of this list, you'd think the ACC would send eight, with Clemson getting the short straw. (Last year, FSU had the fifth highest margin at 0.01 and just missed the cut.) Yet most opinions I've read seem to think the Tigers have a better shot than the Seminoles. Myself, I think you can look at the 8-9 game of the ACC as an NCAA play-in game, but if neither team makes the cut I wouldn't be surprised.