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ACC Basketball Update(3/3)

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Where do we stand heading into the final week of the regular season?

The ACC season has been replete with OT games and stunning comebacks. Another one was had in College Park on Sunday with Clemson down 20 in the 2nd half before rallying to win by three. Heading into the final week I expect we will see more of the same as the middle of the pack jockeys for final position for the ACC Tournament. UNC and Duke on the other hand should win their games during the week setting up a regular season title game in Durham which I expect UNC to win. Clemson is likely going to end up in third and beyond that it is a certifiable mess.

Virginia Tech and Miami have the best chances to grab that all important fourth and fifth spot.  However fourth place gets you a day off during the ACC Tournament.  Maryland lost more than just a game in allowing Clemson to rally from 20 down to win in College Park on Sunday.  Maryland needed the win for the standings and for the NCAA Tournament resume.  As it stands right now, even if they win at Virginia to close out the season they will be 9-7 and they do not own either of the tiebreakers with Virginia Tech and Miami.  Miami has the most work to do but the better schedule playing BC at home and then at FSU.  VT has Wake Forest at home and Clemson on the road.  That looks like a split at best for them.  The likely scenario is VT, Miami and Maryland all at 9-7.  In that case Miami owns the tiebreaker on VT and VT on Maryland making the Hurricanes the fourth team off on ACCT Thursday.

Heading down into the cellar Wake Forest is looking at a 7-9 finish in losing to VT but beating NCSU at home.  They would be followed by FSU who could end the season losing two straight at UNC and versus Miami at home.  GT is also probably looking at a two game losing streak to end the season facing Clemson and then BC in Chestnut Hill which may land the Jackets in bed with the Eagles at 5-11.  And that final game between BC and GT would also be the tiebreaker between the two to finish ninth or tenth in the ACC.  UVa is playing much better and could surprise MD on the weekend but first they face Duke in their third game in six days which will probably do them in.  And NCSU will bring up the rear losing to Wake and ending up 4-12 with UVa having the tiebreaker should they also end up 4-12.

So based on the what I think will likely happen this is how I see the ACC Tournament setting up:

Thursday

#8 FSU vs #9 BC
#5 VT vs #12 NCSU

#7 WF vs #10 GT
#6 MD vs #11 UVa

Friday

#1 UNC vs FSU/BC
#4 Miami vs VT/NCSU

#2 Duke vs WF/GT
#3 Clemson vs MD/UVa

I can hardly wait,