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New Three Point Line Impact

Some of you have asked about this and Luke Winn at delivers with astute analysis of what the newly extended three point line could mean.

As it pertains to UNC:

As if North Carolina really needed more of an advantage after having Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green stay out of the NBA draft, the Heels happen to be the team best-built to take advantage of the new line. It was no surprise that when the three-point expansion was announced in 2007, coach Roy Williams said that he was "certainly glad the committee did not widen the lane along with moving the three-point line" -- because his offense is overwhelmingly centered on getting the ball into the lane, while keeping the floor spaced with the threat of shooters such as Ellington and Green.

Despite having gunners in its backcourt, Carolina scored a lower percentage of its points from beyond the arc than any other NCAA tournament team last season. Just 18.8 percent of the Heels' points came on threes, while 59.9 percent came on twos and 21.4 came from the free-throw line. This is what happens when you have the frequently unstoppable Hansbrough camping out in the paint, and the speedy Lawson pushing toward the hoop on the break.

This is not to say shooting three is unimportant, defenses still need to be kept honest but UNC's primary goal since Dean was on the sidelines is to get the highest percentage shot available and that is usually ten feet in. Roy's adaptation of Dean's system is to get those baskets by running the fast break as often as possible. At any rate it would appear that the one major rule change set to go into effect will not hurt UNC but put a little wind at their backs.

The rest of the article is very interesting. Winn believes mid-majors will be hard hit by the new line and also thinks defenses that force long two point shots will benefit as well. And those teams with a suspect perimeter shooters? Defenses will sag off of them to cover the interior which will either shut them down or get the defending team burned at the wrong time(say March) which is why we love this game so much.

And the article also has nice charts and numbers which is always fun so check it out.