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Can UNC Still Win The Coastal Division?

Well of course they can, with a little help from the two teams that beat them.

Okay, make no mistake, losing to Virginia did serious damage to UNC's hope of making it to Tampa.  In many ways that was sort of a pipe dream anyway but having UVa on the ropes then allowing them up to hang a 2nd division loss on the Heels set up some bad mojo for trying to win the Coastal.  Here is the breakdown:

Current Situation: UNC is 4th in the division at 1-2.  They trail Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Virginia all who have one loss.  GT leads the division by a half game over the two Commonwealth schools but not really over the Hokies since VT owns the tiebreaker.

UNC's Part: The Heels have to win out.  One more loss and it is over because none of the three teams ahead of them will end up with more than three losses and UNC is down in the tiebreaker to two of them.  Should UNC run the table it will get them to 6-2 in the ACC and along the way hang a 2nd loss on Georgia Tech which means UNC would win a tiebreaker with the Yellow Jackets if [UNNAMED BLOGGER'S] favorite team ends up at 6-2 as well.

Help!: Because of the tiebreaker business, UNC needs both VT and UVa to lose twice more to win the division should the Heels make it to 6-2.  Is that possible?  Let's look at the schedules:

Virginia Tech: @FSU, Maryland, @Miami, Duke, Virginia

That is actually a pretty rough ride for the Hokies.  It is possible VT loses two out of the next three.  FSU will be a tough game and I would not sleep on Miami at home.  No one knows what the heck you get from Maryland.  Duke should not be an issue and I would say Virginia could beat them but for UNC's sake the reverse might be necessary.

Virginia: @Georgia Tech, Miami, @Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech

That might be worse than what VT is facing.  UVa is still very much a fragile team.  No one can really explain why they were so bad early or why they are decent now.  With that in mind, they could very well lose every game left on the schedule or squeak out a 4-1 mark the rest of the way.  Where UNC is concerned, there is a real possibility UVa loses twice more giving the division to a 6-2 Tar Heel team.

The issue for UNC is the emaciated appearance their margin of error has taken on with the loss to UVa.  UNC at 2-1 with tiebreakers on UVa and Miami would only need to run the table for 7-1 while hoping for a single VT loss.  Now UNC has the same task while hoping for two teams to lose two games apiece.  Certainly less than ideal but remember one of those Virgina schools will lose at least one more since they play each other.  That means the Heels need the winner of that game to lose twice more before that point and the loser to fall once more.  Yes, it is a lot of moving parts to get lined up but the same was true in 2007 when UNC needed multiple upsets in basketball to make their way to a regular season tie and they all happened.  The ACC has shown that kind of crazy upheaval so far this season making the Heels' hope for Tampa still very much alive, as long as they win out.