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2008 vs 2009 Road To The Final Four

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As the Heels head into the Final Four it would interesting to compare how they look statistically after four games last season.


Team
2008 2009
Games 4 4
PPG 93 88.7
FG% 56.7% 50.3%
3P% 40.9% 45%
FT% 76.8% 76.4%
Assists 20 16.5
Rebs 37.2 38.25
Steals 8.5 9.75
PPG Allowed 68.0 66.0
FG% Allowed 43.6% 39.8%
3P% Allowed 26.6% 28.4%
Rebs Allowed 23.5 33.0
Turnovers 10.7 10.75
Turnovers Forced 13.2 15.0
Margin of Victory 25.2 22.5

Ty Lawson

2008 2009
Games 4 3
Minutes 24.7 31.3
PPG 14.5 20.3
FG% 58.8% 57.1%
3P% 46.1% 63.6%
FT% 89.4% 81.8%
Assists 5 6.6
Rebs 3 3.3
Steals 1.25 2.0
TOs 1.5 0.6

Wayne Ellington

2008 2009
Games 4 4
Minutes 28.5 32.7
PPG 15.5 19.0
FG% 46.9% 55.5%
3P% 37.5% 40.9%
FT% 83.3% 87.5%
Assists 0.5 2.75
Rebs 5.5 5.75
Steals 0.5 0.75
TOs 1.75 2.5

Danny Green

2008 2009
Games 4 4
Minutes 21.7 28.0
PPG 9.0 11.7
FG% 40% 39%
3P% 35% 35.2%
FT% 100% 100%
Assists 2.25 2.75
Rebs 3.75 5.25
Steals 1.25 2.75
TOs 1.25 1.0

Tyler Hansbrough

2008 2009
Games 4 4
Minutes 32.7 28.5
PPG 21.0 17.2
FG% 55.9% 51%
3P% 0% 0%
FT% 66.7% 87.1%
Assists 1.25 1.25
Rebs 9.0 7.2
Steals 1.5 2.5
TOs 2.5 2.5

Deon Thompson

2008 2009
Games 4 4
Minutes 19.25 20.0
PPG 11.75 6.75
FG% 73.3% 44.8%
3P% 0% 0%
FT% 75% 25%
Assists 1.25 1.75
Rebs 4.75 3.25
Steals 0.5 0.75
TOs 1.5 1

Alex Stepheson vs Ed Davis

AS ED
Games 4 4
Minutes 16.25 20.0
PPG 7.5 8.25
FG% 92.8% 56.5%
3P% 0% 0%
FT% 80% 79.3%
Assists 0 0
Rebs 4.5 4.25
Steals 0 0
TOs 0 1
  • In terms of SOS in the four games this season versus last? According to the Pomeroy rankings it looks about the same.2008: 6. Louisville, 10. WSU, 37. Arkansas, 173. MSM
    2009. 7. Gonzaga, 14. Oklahoma, 43. LSU, 188. Radford

    From a perspective of perception, LSU was better than Arkansas...much better.  Louisville was better than both Gonzaga and Oklahoma but in return I think those two were probably better than WSU.  In Pomeroy's system, STUB gets rewarded and being great on defense gets rewarded.  That is how Memphis spent most of the season near the top.

  • The most eye popping stat on here is the fact Ty Lawson is shooting 63% from three point range in three games this season.  His overall shooting percentage is 57% which means he is shooting 54% from two.  So the Villanova guards might be better off letting Lawson drive to the hoop since he is shooting 10% worse inside the arc and it only count as two. The other aspect of Lawson's stats is he was not really bad last season even though the ankle did bother his speed.  I would venture to say his toe is less of an issue for him than the ankle was.
  • Ellington's numbers are significantly up from last season.  Ellington has had only one bad game and that was versus Oklahoma.  If he can return to the level of play from the first three games UNC will be in great shape.
  • Danny Green's numbers are the same pointing to a fairly mediocre performance in NCAA Tournament play over the past two seasons.
  • Tyler Hansbrough was sensational a year ago but has taken a step back.  Of course this is a small sample and foul trouble during the Oklahoma game kept him from getting his normal looks.
  • Deon Thompson has been shockingly worse over last season. Thompson's numbers are down across the board.
  • Just for fun I put Ed Davis next to Alex Stepheson as a comparison.  They rate out the same on the stat line.  Davis is averaging 1.75 blocks per game in the NCAA Tournament versus Stepheson's 1.25 blocks during the same games last season. That being said, perception wise, Davis strikes me as having been better on defense.
  • Overall, I think the most important thing these stats show us is that Lawson and Ellington are playing as well as they possibly can.  Hansbrough is very good but still could step his game up to match what he did last season.  The X factors? Getting Thompson and Green on the same page or at the very least, up to their season averages, especially Green from the perimeter.