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A Saturday Morning Question: Do I Need to Recalibrate My Assessment of UNC?

I've gone through most of the season with what I feel is a pretty realistic assessment of UNC's football team this season. A poor offensive line, a good defense, and an offensive scoring threat that can do the job, but is never going to amaze. Altogether, about where the low 20s ranking they had last week had put them. Going into the Georgia Tech game, I felt this was enough to contend for the Coastal Division crown, more because as with last year there was no clearly outstanding team who was going to run away with it. After Tech, they can still play spoiler, and will probably finish the season with three to five losses. 

But then there's From the Rumble Seat, who starts off with this:

It was just UNC. This is a UNC that very nearly lost to UConn (and probably should have). This is a UNC that lost all of its receivers, but had to keep T.J. Yates, who is a strong candidate for the worst quarterback in the ACC.

Yes, I may be acting like a Negative Nancy, but I'd be a disingenuous ass if I celebrated now seeing as I've been the biggest UNC skeptic around this whole season.

I'm glad to know I was correct when I said that CPJ would snap off Davis's proverbial football weiner like a panda snatching bamboo; however, UNC was even more fortuitous in their W's last year and sufferend some pretty big personnel hits along the way to this season. I never ranked UNC in our blogpoll ballots and for good reason - they aren't that good of a team, and that's that.


And Heather Dinich looks at today's game and comes to this conclusion:

Virginia 14, UNC 13 -- It’s time. The Cavaliers are due, and they’ve had more than a week to prepare. UNC is coming off a tough loss to Georgia Tech and won’t know what to expect from Al Groh and his offensive staff this week.

That's a pretty big discrepancy, from what I think to a team slated to lose to winless team currently residing in ESPN's Bottom 10. UVa has one of the few defensive lines Carolina should be able to handle, no identifiable running game, and is prone to just not show up for entire halves of football. But they're supposed to beat UNC.

So am I just way off base? Am I in an FSU level of denial? Or are people underestimating the Heels?