Because for some reason we all find trying to figure this out fascinating not to mention as difficult as calculus(well for me anyway, I hated higher math.) After the jump is a table showing the current status of UNC basketball scholarships up to the recruiting class of 2012 which is the latest class Roy Williams is willing to offer recruits. Roy follows the NABC's recommendation that no scholarship offers be made prior to June 15th following a recruit's sophomore season. Roy held firm on this standard and waited until Tuesday to offer SF J.P. Tokoto and SG/SF Shabazz Muhammad for the class of 2012.
[table id=36 /]
With Ed Davis going to the NBA and the Wears transferring to UCLA, Roy has some flexibility moving forward. That is augmented greatly by Justin Knox being in Chapel Hill for just the 2010-11 season. With Will Graves and Knox graduating in 2011(plus the aforementioned defections), UNC has four open slots for the recruiting class of 2011. Two of those spots are already taken by James McAdoo(who is likely coming early) and P.J. Hairston. An offer has been made to #1 SG Austin Rivers leaving one scholarship available should Roy opt to go after a big man. Based on the glut of players in the backcourt, if Roy makes another 2011 offer it will probably be for a post player. Roy could begin preparing for Larry Drew's departure but I doubt that will be the case in 2011. Quinn Cook is the only PG listed in the 2011 class as a UNC prospect but I imagine it would be difficult convincing any elite player to ride the bench behind Drew, Kendall Marshall and Dexter Strickland the first year and the latter pair the next.
Moving forward to 2012, there will be three slots open there with the graduation of Drew, Tyler Zeller and Justin Watts following the 2011-12 season. Roy has already offered Tokoto and Muhammad at the earliest point he feels comfortable doing so which means they are top targets. From there it is anyone's guess what Roy might do. Drew will be gone leaving UNC two PGs in Kendall Marshall and Dexter Strickland. The only PG listed as a prospect for UNC in 2012 is #1 rated L.J. Rose which might be a tough get if Marshall develops into a All-ACC caliber PG. #1 rated PGs do not tend to commit to schools where they will sit on the bench. That means Roy could be holding off until 2013 to get his next PG.
There is also a ton of flexibility here. Roy can hold the current extra scholarship from 2011 to use in 2012 and down the line. There is also the recruitment of Austin Rivers which everyone and their brother swears is locked into Duke. I tend to agree with that assessment because of UNC's depth at SG and Duke has more room. However, we will wait and see since much the same was said about Harrison Barnes. If Rivers does sign with Duke or goes back to Florida then Roy would have another scholarship for 2011 to use. And in case you were wondering. James McAdoo enrolling early affects very little save when his scholarship might be available once he is done. We know he would be in Chapel Hill at least two years which means his slot could be open by 2012 at the earliest. Given how talented McAdoo is there was a chance that might have been the case anyway even if he comes in as scheduled.
Of course none of this accounts for when John Henson and Harrison Barnes in particular might go to the NBA. That could be 2011 or 2012. Worse case scenario is Roy gets only one more 2011 recruit(either Rivers or another big man) and then loses Henson and Barnes. That would leave Roy with three additional open slots in 2011 recruiting class and if he opts not to use them six total slots in 2012. I don't see it getting that far. If Roy thinks it is going that direction he will go ahead and fill out the 2011 class with four players now rather than be caught with that many scholarships in 2012.
Now if you will excuse me, I need to take some Tylenol.