With the commitment of Brice Johnson to the 2012 class, two other UNC recruiting targets signaled they would be going elsewhere. PF Roscoe Allen canceled a pending official visit to UNC and SF T.J. Warren announced his decision would be announced next Wednesday between NC State and Georgetown. Essentially UNC's 2012 class is done with Roy Williams looking to 2013. That also means C Mitch McGary is likely not committing to UNC though that has not been publicly ruled out. After the jump is the current breakdown of UNC's basketball scholarships.
[table id=133 /]
x-Possible redshirt in 2011-12; moves McDonald to class of 2014
y-Will leave after 2011-12 for a two year Mormon mission
z-Preferred walk-on on scholarship for 2011-12
Officially UNC will have three scholarships available for 2012-13 with Tyler Zeller and Justin Watts set to graduate in May, 2012. Stilman White is slated to go on a Mormon mission after this season which opens up his slot. Speculatively, the number of open slots will likely move to five since it is generally accepted Harrison Barnes and John Henson will leave for the NBA assuming the NBA is back playing.
UNC's 2012 recruiting class is consuming four slots which is technically one more than would be available if Barnes and Henson defy convention and return for 2012-13. At that point it is likely Jackson Simmons would revert back to walk-on status since scholarships are one year contracts. However for our purposes here I am going to assume Barnes and Henson leave with Zeller and Watts while White leaves for his mission. In that case there would be an open slot for 2012-13 which Roy would likely pocket for the 2013 class.
Speaking of the 2013 class, UNC already has one commit lined up in PF Isaiah Hicks. Technically UNC would have three official slots open for in 2013 except one would open up after this season if Henson leaves for the NBA. The second would be Leslie McDonald but he will likely redshirt pushing him to 2014 for graduation. That leaves on Dexter Strickland graduating in 2013 yielding an additional slot for the 2013 recruiting class.
Got all of that?
To summarize. UNC officially has five open slots over the next two seasons. Three in 2012 and two in 2013. Unofficially that number could go to as many as seven if Barnes leaves for the NBA in 2012 and James Michael McAdoo does the same in 2013. There is also the offer currently being used by Simmons which could be freed up if Simmons is reverted back to a walk-0n. On that one, I am not even sure that would happen considering how UNC operates. This also does not account for what Reggie Bullock or P.J. Hairston might do as it pertains to the NBA which would open up more slots.
Based on the above speculation the best guess is UNC will have three offers to make for 2013 one of which is already taken. In that case I would look for the 2013 class to be something similar to the 2010 class with three bona fide elite players and that's it. That is the beauty of the 2012 class. UNC has four solid players who will likely develop into very good 3-4 year players. Add an elite class in 2013 and Roy's tried and true two year recruiting plan will once again yield an outstanding team.