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Tale of the Tape: North Carolina-UNC Greensboro

Gregory Shamus

Here is how the Tar Heels match up statistically with UNC Greensboro coached by former Tar Heel Wes Miller.

North Carolina UNC Greensboro
Conference ACC Southern
Record 5-2 4-4
KenPom Rank 8th 326th
Points per game 77.0 78.6
Points per possession 1.07 1.08
Offensive Efficiency(Rank) 114.2(17th) 98.3(271st)
Defensive Efficiency(Rank) 92.6(12th) 114.1(343rd)
Tempo(Rank) 71.4(63rd) 72.6(35th)
Offensive eFG% 50.2% 50.1%
Defensive eFG% 44.1% 55.8%
Field Goal % 47.6% 47.6%
3P FG% 30.6% 39.4%
Offensive Reb Rate 35.4% 29.8%
Defensive Reb Rate 71.2% 74.3%
TO Rate 17.8% 21.0%
FT Rate 48.1% 45.4%
KenPom win probability UNC 99%

Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet

On paper this might be the worst team UNC faces all season. The only other team on the schedule that is ranked in the 300s is Northern Kentucky which is presently 314th out of 351 teams in KenPom. The Spartans really don't do much well except rebound on the defensive end. They are 27th in limiting opposing teams to 25.5% on the offensive glass. Seeing that opposing teams have an eFG% of 55.8% and shooting 55.7% from two against UNCG, there probably aren't as many rebounds to grab on that end of the floor.

There are three numbers here that point to this game being a possible "biscuits" night. UNCG is 35th in tempo so chances are this game could be up and down. However UNCG is 343rd in defensive efficiency which means if the game is up and down, the Tar Heels score a lot of points. The Spartans also turn the ball over at a rate of 21.0% which is 299th overall. So combine the tempo with UNC facing a team that can't defend and turns the ball over a lot, triple digits could be on the horizon.

The only word of caution here is UNC's offense is inconsistent and coming off a big win, it wouldn't be surprising if the Tar Heels were a little flat. Still, this shouldn't be a loss, especially given UNC has a 99% chance of winning the game.