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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Virginia

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

A statistical look at UNC's Monday night match-up with Virginia.

North Carolina Virginia
Record 11-6 13-5
ACC Record 1-3 4-1
KenPom Rank 41st 15th
Points per game 76.0 66.5
Points per possession 1.05 1.05
Offensive Efficiency(Rank) 106.1(132nd) 108.8(81st)
Defensive Efficiency(Rank) 92.6(17th) 88.2(2nd)
Tempo(Rank) 72.2(22nd) 63.4(330th)
Offensive eFG% 48.4% 49.2%
Defensive eFG% 44.4% 43.6%
Field Goal % 45.6% 44.2%
3P FG% 30.6% 35.5%
Offensive Reb Rate 37.7% 35.4%
Defensive Reb Rate 68.5% 73.3%
TO Rate 17.9% 18.3%
FT Rate 47.0% 44.4%
KenPom win probability UVa 82%

Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet

After winning a game against a slower tempo team that struggled on the defensive end, UNC now faces a slower tempo team that has the second best defensive efficiency rating in the country. The Cavaliers are 17th in defensive eFG% and 3rd nationally in defensive rebounding rate. Virginia forces missed shots and tends to grab all the rebounds which is a tough proposition in a low possession game. If you are only getting 60-65 possessions and many of those end with just one shot, that cuts into the margin of error significantly. For a Tar Heel team that doesn't have much margin of error and a suspect offense, there is a good chance this could get ugly.

The concern for UNC regarding Virginia's offense is not so much in the numbers but the style. Virginia, like Boston College, knows how to execute on the offensive end and does so in methodical fashion. That requires UNC to focus on the defensive end much longer. More problematic than that will be UNC keeping up with rotations and not giving open threes. The Tar Heels will be tested on both ends. UVa has been very good since ACC play started and is one friendly bounce on a Rasheed Sulaimon three away from being 5-0.