A statistical view of UNC's match-up with Georgia Tech.
|North Carolina||Georgia Tech|
|Points per game||75.4||69.5|
|Points per possession||1.06||1.03|
|Field Goal %||45.8%||43.9%|
|Offensive Reb Rate||38.3%||33.6%|
|Defensive Reb Rate||67.6%||72.5%|
|KenPom win probability||UNC 67%|
There issue with this match-up is there is no statistical data to account for UNC playing in Atlanta which has been a Tar Heel house of horror for many, many years. There is also the potential for UNC to have travel issues heading to Georgia with the present winter weather making its presence felt.
Anyway, one notable number here for UNC is offensive efficiency. Why you may ask? Because UNC's offensive efficiency had been in a free fall since the win over Kentucky. Once upon a time it was almost 114 and ranked 16th in the country. Prior to UNC's game with Clemson it was 106.9 good enough for 121st. Then UNC posted a fat 131.3 on then ranked seventh best defensive efficiency in the country. That one game pushed UNC's overall offensive efficiency from 106.9 to 109.5 and bumped the Tar Heels' rank from 121st to 75th. That is a fairly amazing jump considering the sample size is probably large enough to handle a huge swing in one direction. The key here is UNC posting a huge offensive efficiency number on a highly ranked defense which KenPom then adjusts and voila you end up with a huge jump in the number and the ranking.
The question is did UNC figure out something against Clemson that can be applied going forward to keep the offense rolling. Clearly the energy and effort from James Michael McAdoo was huge but little things like Kennedy Meeks stepping up his game and Leslie McDonald working within the flow of the offense.
One number of particular concern for UNC is giving up a 32.4% offensive rebounding rate to an opposing team. That actually went down after playing Clemson and with good reason. UNC gave up multiple offensive rebounds to the Tigers early in that game and for awhile it was the only source of offense for Clemson. Georgia Tech will offer a similar challenge with seven footer Daniel Miller and also Kemmeon Holsey who are both very efficient rebounders on both ends of the floor.
One other note. Georgia Tech does not get to the line often with a 34.7% free throw rate which is 302nd nationally. UNC continues to be decent in that respect though the number has taken a bit of a hit in ACC play. UNC's free throw shooting also continues to not be decent in any way, shape or form. In fact that is the one area of James Michael McAdoo that has kept him from being a good 3-4 points per game better than he has been over the past four contests.