A statistical view of UNC's match-up with NC State
|North Carolina||NC State|
|Points per game||75.6||72.0|
|Points per possession||1.07||1.07|
|Field Goal %||45.8%||46.3%|
|Offensive Reb Rate||38.0%||34.3%|
|Defensive Reb Rate||68.4%||65.3%|
|KenPom win probability||UNC 83%|
Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet
What's the difference between UNC and NC State's seasons at this point? UNC beat three ranked teams and NC State didn't. The rest of it plays out about the same with questionable losses, getting blown out by Virginia, losing at Wake Forest and both teams beating Georgia Tech.
On paper the these two offenses are remarkably similar. UNC is back up to 66th in offensive efficiency while NC State is ranked 79th. Neither team shoots three particularly well nor is very good at the free throw line. The overall FG% and eFG% are also very close. The difference come in the rebounding and free throw rates with UNC being much more efficient at both. NC State is slightly better at taking care of the basketball but doesn't necessarily force a lot of turnovers with a defensive turnover rate of 17.7, right at UNC's average. UNC on the other hand is forcing teams to turn it over at 19.9% which will make for an interesting test.
The rebounding numbers are really interesting because NC State has size in BeeJay Anya and Jordan Vandenburg but are 289th in defensive rebounding rate. Anya injured his knee on Wednesday versus Florida State and might not play on Saturday taking some of the Wolfpack's size off the floor. That still leave Vandenberg and Leonard Freeman who had some decent rebounding rates as an individual. T.J. Warren also has a penchant for offensive rebounds.
The question in this game is whether or not UNC's recent offensive revival can continue. NC State's 124th ranked defense says it should, especially with the game being played at home. And for some weird reason teams shoot well from the free throw line versus NC State. Not that the Wolfpack have any control over that just an oddity considering UNC's trouble at the charity stripe this season.